MVP discussion thread

[BlackFalconGSW]

Monta Ellis anyone?

[QRich3]

Thinking about the players standing out so far this season, I feel like a group is particularly standing out above the rest. Please let me know your thoughts:

LeBron, Durant, Paul (obvious)
Love (not a shock)
George, Curry (optimists called it)
Davis (the story of the year so far)

Yeah it's a pretty safe bet that the MVP is gonna come out of that group. Love and Davis will depend on team record to keep being on the conversation, and George and Curry will need to improve their consistency to keep up with the rest. Paul will have to as well. In the end, unless Miami underachieve in the RS, this is Lebron's award to lose, again. It'd take one of the other teams having a surprisingly high number of wins for the narrative to drift away from Lebron's insane impact and numbers, which nobody doubts he'll sustain all season.

[Tave]

New Orleans is probably going to finish the season with a losing record, therefore Davis has a snowball's chance in hell.

[cavs4life03]

so far pg has to be the leading candidate for this award hahaha

[DayofMourning]

I'm lovin' Davis right now. He's one of the handful of players that I check on every time they play. Hakeem and David Robinson are two of my favorite players ever, and I still am in awe of how much hazard they created defensively, signified by their steals and blocks stats. Davis is replicating that right now, and it is just awesome. I hope he keeps this up. We need more players like this in our league.

[JulesWinnfield]

Paul George has played very well and I;m a fan. But the biggest reason people are putting him in the MVP mix this year is because of the Pacers blistering record, which frankly isn't sustainable. They';re good, they're not 1 seed good. They have one win against a +500 team, theyve played an incredibly easy schedule to date. Once we hit December the schedule picks up and we're going to start learning a lot more about how good they could actually be this season, and if thats not "1 seed good" PG is going to have no shot. Because his numbers while improved are not going to be on that first tier mvp level

Look at this stretch from Dec 1 to 10
@LAC, @Por, @Uta, @SA, @OKC, Miami.... Lets see where they are after that

[Abstraktmind]

Paul George has played very well and I;m a fan. But the biggest reason people are putting him in the MVP mix this year is because of the Pacers blistering record, which frankly isn't sustainable. They';re good, they're not 1 seed good. They have one win against a +500 team, theyve played an incredibly easy schedule to date. Once we hit December the schedule picks up and we're going to start learning a lot more about how good they could actually be this season, and if thats not "1 seed good" PG is going to have no shot. Because his numbers while improved are not going to be on that first tier mvp level

Look at this stretch from Dec 1 to 10
@LAC, @Por, @Uta, @SA, @OKC, Miami.... Lets see where they are after that

Winning record? Bro what are talking about? There's only been 11 games top played.

[JulesWinnfield]

Paul George has played very well and I;m a fan. But the biggest reason people are putting him in the MVP mix this year is because of the Pacers blistering record, which frankly isn't sustainable. They';re good, they're not 1 seed good. They have one win against a +500 team, theyve played an incredibly easy schedule to date. Once we hit December the schedule picks up and we're going to start learning a lot more about how good they could actually be this season, and if thats not "1 seed good" PG is going to have no shot. Because his numbers while improved are not going to be on that first tier mvp level

Look at this stretch from Dec 1 to 10
@LAC, @Por, @Uta, @SA, @OKC, Miami.... Lets see where they are after that

Winning record? Bro what are talking about? There's only been 11 games top played.

Only 11 games also applies to their 10-1 record, which is a league best and something people have to project to continue if they're going to make Paul George a legit MVP candidate... Given his numbers won't match the top guys, he will have to milk the hell out of team success

And in those 11 the only team over 500 on their schedule has been the Bulls (who havent hit their stride yet), who they split with. (Edit: I missed Memphis too) Teams like the Knicks and Nets may (and likely will) wind up playing better, but that doesn't change the fact that they're struggling right now. The fact is the Pacers have played an incredibly easy schedule to amass that 10-1 record. That is not even in dispute, its a bottom 3-4 schedule so far in terms of opp win %.. Let's see what happens when they start playing at the deep end of the pool. I have serious doubts they can hang with Miami over 82 games enough to put George in legitimate MVP consideration.

[NO-KG-AI]

By either definition of MVP I've heard, I can't see how you can argue George is a better player, or more crucial to his team's success than some of the other guys.

[mopper8]

^^Agree, this is what I wrote two weeks ago and is still true today.

At the end of the season IMO the top 3 MVP candidates will be Lebron, CP3, and Durant, and deservedly so, as they are probably the 3 best players in the game. The player who's stats and team perform best against expectations will have the edge. A guy like Love has an outside shot if his team really surprises because he has a legit argument as best at his position and is likely to continue to fill up the stat sheet. Hard to imagine George overtaking Durant, let alone Lebron, as a top-2 SF.

[daschysta]

By either definition of MVP I've heard, I can't see how you can argue George is a better player, or more crucial to his team's success than some of the other guys.

Rose wasn't nearly the beat player in the league either, and pg is an elite defender too. If he keeps up what he's doing then he's better than rose was when he won, I dont think either should win or have won while lebron is in the league but the precedent is already set and if Indy ends up with the best record then he will get serious consideration.

[kingkirk]

Paul George's numbers are not those of someone who deserves an MVP.

They are perfect second option type numbers on a title team but the only reason he is in the discussion is because the Pacers are 10-1 right now.

[xBulletproof]

Given his numbers won't match the top guys, he will have to milk the hell out of team success

*snip*

The fact is the Pacers have played an incredibly easy schedule to amass that 10-1 record. That is not even in dispute, its a bottom 3-4 schedule so far in terms of opp win %..

Paul's numbers don't have to match the top guys. His defense makes up for that difference. The MVP is about your impact on your team and the games, not simply numbers. If it was a simple numbers game nobody but Lebron would ever win it. I had a post comparing Paul vs Durant in the game thread yesterday, maybe I'll cut and paste it here, but it showed that according to 82games.com that Paul was more of a net positive to his team that Durant so far this season. I'm not saying it's concrete proof that it's true, but it certainly contradicts popular belief so it's interesting to say the least.

As far as the strength of schedule goes, guess who is the next door neighbor to the Pacers in that ranking? The OKC Thunder. Just a couple spots ahead? The Spurs and Heat. This thing is overblown on here. When you win, your SOS is lower. They kinda go hand in hand, especially this early in the season.

[xBulletproof]

Here is the important part of my post from the GT yesterday since people were comparing Paul and Durant there, and everyone kept repeating that the difference between Durant on offense is much greater than Paul's advantage on defense. So, I decided to look it up and actually put some numbers to it. Here's what I found.

So these are the stats for the guy Paul George, and KD are guarding at SF. Neither has enough minutes at another position to draw any conclusion from. Both have spent almost all their time at SF, so that's the numbers I'll use.

The guy Paul George is defending per 48

18.5 FGA, .408 eFG%, 6.8 rebs, 2.0 assist, 3.4 turnovers, 18.2 points, 8.3 PER rating (wow!)

The guy KD is guarding per 48 minutes

17.4 FGA, .545 eFG%, 6.0 rebs, 2.6 assist, 2.6 turnovers, 21.3 points, 12.7 PER rating


Also, the net production actually has Paul better than Durant by a little as well. Per 48 Durant outscores his counterpart by 13.2 points with a 13.5 better PER rating. Paul outscores his opponent by 14.5 points per 48 and has a PER rating 16.3 points higher than the guy he guards.

I'm not saying this makes Paul better/worse than Durant, but just wanted to put some numbers to it. Also I know these numbers may not hold up over 70 more games, but it certainly looks closer according to 82games.com than most want to realize.

*EDIT* Also per the team stats, per 100 possessions the Pacers team allows 8 less points when Paul is on the floor. Wow, and when Durant is on the floor, the Thunder allow 17 MORE points per 100 possessions. Wow, that's ugly.

[JulesWinnfield]

Given his numbers won't match the top guys, he will have to milk the hell out of team success

*snip*

The fact is the Pacers have played an incredibly easy schedule to amass that 10-1 record. That is not even in dispute, its a bottom 3-4 schedule so far in terms of opp win %..

Paul's numbers don't have to match the top guys. His defense makes up for that difference. The MVP is about your impact on your team and the games, not simply numbers. If it was a simple numbers game nobody but Lebron would ever win it. I had a post comparing Paul vs Durant in the game thread yesterday, maybe I'll cut and paste it here, but it showed that according to 82games.com that Paul was more of a net positive to his team that Durant so far this season. I'm not saying it's concrete proof that it's true, but it certainly contradicts popular belief so it's interesting to say the least.

As far as the strength of schedule goes, guess who is the next door neighbor to the Pacers in that ranking? The OKC Thunder. Just a couple spots ahead? The Spurs and Heat. This thing is overblown on here. When you win, your SOS is lower. They kinda go hand in hand, especially this early in the season.

Yes but that's a total false equivalency. Does Miami, OKC and SA really need to prove to you they can win in the 60 win range (+/- a couple wins)? They're certified. They come with track records. That's what they do. The Pacers are trying to ascend to that level, and its a lot more fair to look at their early record with a critical eye given that. They could get there but im still holding off just a bit. They pretty much have to be the 1 seed for Paul George to be in the mix

PG's defense is elite, i won't begin to argue that. Through the lens of the MVP voter though, his numbers are still going to need to be comparable. Whether you think thats fair or not. And if you want to argue defensive impact, we can all agree that Paul George isn't the most valuable on his own team given the greater control a paint monster like Hibbert can have over the game

[xBulletproof]

Given his numbers won't match the top guys, he will have to milk the hell out of team success

*snip*

The fact is the Pacers have played an incredibly easy schedule to amass that 10-1 record. That is not even in dispute, its a bottom 3-4 schedule so far in terms of opp win %..

Paul's numbers don't have to match the top guys. His defense makes up for that difference. The MVP is about your impact on your team and the games, not simply numbers. If it was a simple numbers game nobody but Lebron would ever win it. I had a post comparing Paul vs Durant in the game thread yesterday, maybe I'll cut and paste it here, but it showed that according to 82games.com that Paul was more of a net positive to his team that Durant so far this season. I'm not saying it's concrete proof that it's true, but it certainly contradicts popular belief so it's interesting to say the least.

As far as the strength of schedule goes, guess who is the next door neighbor to the Pacers in that ranking? The OKC Thunder. Just a couple spots ahead? The Spurs and Heat. This thing is overblown on here. When you win, your SOS is lower. They kinda go hand in hand, especially this early in the season.

Yes but that's a total false equivalency. Does Miami, OKC and SA really need to prove to you they can win in the 60 win range? They're certified. They come with track records. That's what they do. The Pacers are trying to ascend to that level, and its a lot more fair to look at their early record with a critical eye given that.

PG's defense is elite, i won't begin to argue that. Through the lens of the MVP voter though, his numbers are still going to need to be comparable. Whether you think thats fair or not. And if you want to argue defensive impact, we can all agree that Paul George isn't the most valuable on his own team given the greater control a paint monster like Hibbert can have over the game

The Pacers were a good 10 minutes away from being in the NBA Finals last year. I know I'm a Pacers fan and all, but I don't know how people can think they aren't in that category of teams. They've gotten better every year for the last 4 years and it's a natural progression to be in that category. I guess I should be used to it at this point.

Regardless, you're assuming how MVP voters think. If your logic held true Steve Nash never wins the MVP. You realize he won MVP with a 15 ppg, 3 rebounds, and 11 assists per game that season. That same year Lebron averaged 27-7-7. Wade averaged 24-5-7 with All NBA defense. Nash wasn't anywhere near the top overall numbers wise, but voters recognized his impact on the game. What I'm saying isn't unprecedented. Especially when Nash won it on one side of the court only ..... while only scoring 15 PPG on that one side of the court.

[Rasho_libre]

Here is the important part of my post from the GT yesterday since people were comparing Paul and Durant there, and everyone kept repeating that the difference between Durant on offense is much greater than Paul's advantage on defense. So, I decided to look it up and actually put some numbers to it. Here's what I found.

So these are the stats for the guy Paul George, and KD are guarding at SF. Neither has enough minutes at another position to draw any conclusion from. Both have spent almost all their time at SF, so that's the numbers I'll use.

The guy Paul George is defending per 48

18.5 FGA, .408 eFG%, 6.8 rebs, 2.0 assist, 3.4 turnovers, 18.2 points, 8.3 PER rating (wow!)

The guy KD is guarding per 48 minutes

17.4 FGA, .545 eFG%, 6.0 rebs, 2.6 assist, 2.6 turnovers, 21.3 points, 12.7 PER rating


Also, the net production actually has Paul better than Durant by a little as well. Per 48 Durant outscores his counterpart by 13.2 points with a 13.5 better PER rating. Paul outscores his opponent by 14.5 points per 48 and has a PER rating 16.3 points higher than the guy he guards.

I'm not saying this makes Paul better/worse than Durant, but just wanted to put some numbers to it. Also I know these numbers may not hold up over 70 more games, but it certainly looks closer according to 82games.com than most want to realize.

*EDIT* Also per the team stats, per 100 possessions the Pacers team allows 8 less points when Paul is on the floor. Wow, and when Durant is on the floor, the Thunder allow 17 MORE points per 100 possessions. Wow, that's ugly.

I thought kd was the best defender in the league? Mainly because his synergy numbers are cute. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see Paul George is on a completely different planet as a defender.

[DivineFury]

Here is the important part of my post from the GT yesterday since people were comparing Paul and Durant there, and everyone kept repeating that the difference between Durant on offense is much greater than Paul's advantage on defense. So, I decided to look it up and actually put some numbers to it. Here's what I found.

So these are the stats for the guy Paul George, and KD are guarding at SF. Neither has enough minutes at another position to draw any conclusion from. Both have spent almost all their time at SF, so that's the numbers I'll use.

The guy Paul George is defending per 48

18.5 FGA, .408 eFG%, 6.8 rebs, 2.0 assist, 3.4 turnovers, 18.2 points, 8.3 PER rating (wow!)

The guy KD is guarding per 48 minutes

17.4 FGA, .545 eFG%, 6.0 rebs, 2.6 assist, 2.6 turnovers, 21.3 points, 12.7 PER rating


Also, the net production actually has Paul better than Durant by a little as well. Per 48 Durant outscores his counterpart by 13.2 points with a 13.5 better PER rating. Paul outscores his opponent by 14.5 points per 48 and has a PER rating 16.3 points higher than the guy he guards.

I'm not saying this makes Paul better/worse than Durant, but just wanted to put some numbers to it. Also I know these numbers may not hold up over 70 more games, but it certainly looks closer according to 82games.com than most want to realize.

*EDIT* Also per the team stats, per 100 possessions the Pacers team allows 8 less points when Paul is on the floor. Wow, and when Durant is on the floor, the Thunder allow 17 MORE points per 100 possessions. Wow, that's ugly.

I thought kd was the best defender in the league? Mainly because his synergy numbers are cute. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see Paul George is on a completely different planet as a defender.

How is PG any different in that sense?

He has one of the best defenses to play with including Hibbert guarding the basket. Don't forget what playing for the Bulls with a great team defense did for Nate/Belinelli defensive numbers. I'm glad PG's defensive numbers look good, but it's not simply his own amazing defense, even if you look at the players he guards.

These stats are a total joke in themselves. When I watch him play I do not see any of the makings of an elite defender. A solid defender, sure. But hardly something to put on a MVP application.

[JulesWinnfield]

Paul's numbers don't have to match the top guys. His defense makes up for that difference. The MVP is about your impact on your team and the games, not simply numbers. If it was a simple numbers game nobody but Lebron would ever win it. I had a post comparing Paul vs Durant in the game thread yesterday, maybe I'll cut and paste it here, but it showed that according to 82games.com that Paul was more of a net positive to his team that Durant so far this season. I'm not saying it's concrete proof that it's true, but it certainly contradicts popular belief so it's interesting to say the least.

As far as the strength of schedule goes, guess who is the next door neighbor to the Pacers in that ranking? The OKC Thunder. Just a couple spots ahead? The Spurs and Heat. This thing is overblown on here. When you win, your SOS is lower. They kinda go hand in hand, especially this early in the season.

Yes but that's a total false equivalency. Does Miami, OKC and SA really need to prove to you they can win in the 60 win range? They're certified. They come with track records. That's what they do. The Pacers are trying to ascend to that level, and its a lot more fair to look at their early record with a critical eye given that.

PG's defense is elite, i won't begin to argue that. Through the lens of the MVP voter though, his numbers are still going to need to be comparable. Whether you think thats fair or not. And if you want to argue defensive impact, we can all agree that Paul George isn't the most valuable on his own team given the greater control a paint monster like Hibbert can have over the game

The Pacers were a good 10 minutes away from being in the NBA Finals last year. I know I'm a Pacers fan and all, but I don't know how people can think they aren't in that category of teams. They've gotten better every year for the last 4 years and it's a natural progression to be in that category. I guess I should be used to it at this point.

Regardless, you're assuming how MVP voters think. If your logic held true Steve Nash never wins the MVP. You realize he won MVP with a 15 ppg, 3 rebounds, and 11 assists per game that season. That same year Lebron averaged 27-7-7. Wade averaged 24-5-7 with All NBA defense. Nash wasn't anywhere near the top overall numbers wise, but voters recognized his impact on the game. What I'm saying isn't unprecedented. Especially when Nash won it on one side of the court only ..... while only scoring 15 PPG on that one side of the court.

The Pacers did take Miami to 7 and match up very well with them. Hibbert looks like 06 Shaq against the Miami frontcourt and they can pound the Heat on the glass at will. But being better equipped than most to knock off the champs doesn't also equate to being able to play at a 75+% win clip over an 82 game schedule. That's something they haven't proven to date. They're going to have their share of nights where their mediocre half court offense bites them. It's entirely possible they do win in the 60 win range, but they'll need to be the 1 seed in either case. Paul George isn't winning MVP over Lebron with a worse team record

As for your last point about 05 Nash, you're misinterpreting me... Steve Nash's team in 05 finished with a league high 62 wins. That's about what its going to take for George. The point about the numbers needing to be close was in reaction to your point about being able to make an argument his defense makes him more impactful than KD. I don't think voters are going to see it that way if the raw numbers remain what they are. George will rely heavily on team success, way more than most of these guys

[Michael Lucky]

really a competition between CP3, Lebron, and George at this point. AD would be the front runner if his team was better considering he's been the best player in the league so far, but apparently they all decided to shoot like crap this year.