1990-1992 Michael Jordan Shot Chart

[ceiling raiser]

I have no words, absolutely incredible. Thanks for your hard work, it'll take me some time to digest. There may be two biases in the availability of games (highlight bias as DS mentioned, and selection bias since bad games by him are more likely to disappear from archives as time passes), but the numbers are still tremendous even in context.

Thanks again for your hard work, this is amazing stuff.

[MisterWestside]

Superb work, Dipper13.

[ceiling raiser]

How did you go about choosing the games? Full playoffs of every year + notable performances? Or were they simply random samples?

Any games I could find from the specified seasons.

I remember you did one for Sir Charles as well? Were there any others?

Just Barkley & Jordan so far. I may chart legends like Bird & Olajuwon in the future.

Looking forward to it, especially Bird from the beginning of his peak (whenever you wanna choose that year) through 87-88, and Hakeem for those three seasons (93-95), and maybe Baylor/Oscar/West when you have a chance (not much tape on them, though, I suppose).

Again, absolutely incredible.

[Witzig-Okashi]

Was this research is as extensive as it seems? You did an excellent job, Dipper13.


What stood out to me the most was that 51.1% from mid-range, the most inefficient spot on the court (well, 16-20 ft...).

[Dipper 13]

That's the biggest difference. Guys have troubles against defenses because they wait to see what the defense does. It's not just the wings, Hakeem is frustrated with Howard's inability to react.

He was particularly excellent at quickly flashing to the post and playing out of the pivot. If the defense denied him the ball, they would swing it around and he would pop out off a screen and get the ball at the top of the key often attacking the vulnerable defense at this point, not allowing his man to catch up. No doubt he ranks up with Russell as the best of all time in the NBA.



In this example below, Miami fails to keep the ball out of his hands in the post.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuVO-yxZNqg&t=3m46s



Another quick flash into the post against New York, but this ends up with Jordan coming off the screen and into a quick isolation at the top.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDqJZ96hOBU&t=2m7s

[richboy]

As time has passed MJ defense has been underrated. These numbers are great to see on both ends but the defensive numbers are insane.

[Gregoire]

Insane work! Its interesting how these numbers compared with Lebrons 09-13 and Shaqs 00-02 numbers (percentage at the rim, clutch, net rating, plus/minus).

[Dipper 13]

As time has passed MJ defense has been underrated. These numbers are great to see on both ends but the defensive numbers are insane.

For what it's worth, Kevin Johnson has said that Jordan's defense was more devastating to the opposition than "anything he could do offensively". I guess this would give some credence to the belief of Bill Russell as the GOAT.


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaAwAAXF0po[/youtube]

[Dipper 13]

Sports Illustrated - May 21, 1990

Moreover, Jordan played excellent defense on Philly's Hersey Hawkins in the fourth period. It wasn't so much that Hawkins scored only two points in the final 12 minutes, it was more that Jordan wouldn't even let him touch the ball. The least recognized part of Jordan's game is his ability to slip picks and suddenly pop up in the passing lane, like a kid who finds a shortcut to the candy store. "Nobody has ever been better at the end of a game than Michael," said Bulls coach Phil Jackson afterward. " Oscar Robertson was great, but this guy is a closer at both ends."



Sports Illustrated - June 28, 1993

There would seem to be four players with whom realistically to compare Jordan: Magic and Bird, both of whom were three-time regular-season MVPs; Bill Russell, the ultimate winner, who led the Celtics to 11 championships in 13 seasons; and Oscar Robertson, whose versatility, leadership and coldhearted competitiveness during 13 seasons make him closest to Jordan in playing style.

"Oscar was great defensively when he wanted to be," says 68-year-old Bull assistant Johnny Bach. "But Michael is the Tasmanian devil."

[Swagalicious]

This is great stuff, although I'm questioning the selection of games for this shot chart due to his ridiculous 3pt percentage

[ShaqAttack3234]

This is great stuff, although I'm questioning the selection of games for this shot chart due to his ridiculous 3pt percentage

Eh, not too surprising. The only one of the 3 seasons he attempted a significant amount was '90 when he attempted 3 per game and shot 37.6%, he then attempted just 1.1 in '91 while shooting 31.2% and just 1.3 attempts in '92 while shooting 27%. Because of this, his percentage over the three years was still 33.8% in those 3 regular seasons combined. The games Dipper 13 used included all of the playoff series from these 3 years as well, and in general, MJ attempted more 3s and shot a better percentage on them in the playoffs than regular season at 35.8% on an average of 2.2 3PA over the 3 playoff runs. So yeah, these were better 3 point shooting games than his average, but not by such a huge disparity, especially since those playoff games are 55 of the 126 games.

[lorak]

This is great stuff, although I'm questioning the selection of games for this shot chart due to his ridiculous 3pt percentage

Yeah, that's unfortunately the biggest problem here. And that's why it would be better to do only playoffs games - as all of them are available, so although sample would be smaller, but at the same time more reliable, without "highlights bias".

[lorak]

This is great stuff, although I'm questioning the selection of games for this shot chart due to his ridiculous 3pt percentage

Eh, not too surprising. The only one of the 3 seasons he attempted a significant amount was '90 when he attempted 3 per game and shot 37.6%, he then attempted just 1.1 in '91 while shooting 31.2% and just 1.3 attempts in '92 while shooting 27%. Because of this, his percentage over the three years was still 33.8% in those 3 regular seasons combined. The games Dipper 13 used included all of the playoff series from these 3 years as well, and in general, MJ attempted more 3s and shot a better percentage on them in the playoffs than regular season at 35.8% on an average of 2.2 3PA over the 3 playoff runs. So yeah, these were better 3 point shooting games than his average, but not by such a huge disparity, especially since those playoff games are 55 of the 126 games.

Even if we include playoffs games from that period and equal (to Dipper's ample) amount of regular season games, then Jordan's real 3P% during that period was 34.5%. That's 9.9% less than his l percentage from Dipper's sample: 38.2%.

[Gregoire]

This is great stuff, although I'm questioning the selection of games for this shot chart due to his ridiculous 3pt percentage

Yeah, that's unfortunately the biggest problem here. And that's why it would be better to do only playoffs games - as all of them are available, so although sample would be smaller, but at the same time more reliable, without "highlights bias".

Maybe Dipper could separate give us only PO numbers...

[Dipper 13]

Yeah, that's unfortunately the biggest problem here. And that's why it would be better to do only playoffs games - as all of them are available, so although sample would be smaller, but at the same time more reliable, without "highlights bias".

Yes it is fair to note most of the available games on the internet are the ones where he has a big performance. He did however have some bad shooting games in the 1992 Playoffs, especially vs. Cleveland and New York. For the most part I watched these games in chronological order and I recall earlier on his midrange percentage was in the 55% ballpark and his restricted area percentage was 78-79%, but his overall FG% was approaching 60%. In this (incomplete) footage he averages 33.7 points while shooting 53.5% from the floor (1672/3128), which is basically what he averaged in the 1987-88 and 1988-89 regular seasons. If his outside shot back then was not what it would become later, it would almost certainly mean he was an even better finisher at the basket.

But I don't see how this highlight bias affects his Synergy breakdown (1.98 PPP in Transition), or his Clutch statistics in the 82games.com format. His performance in crunch time (shooting over 60%) may be the most impressive in this thread. I know many statistical posters here do not believe in the idea of crunch time, but I certainly do if only for the fact that we know the mental pressure affects the player's performance (beit positive or negative). In a close game in the 4th quarter the emphasis on not wasting possessions will become that much greater. Not to say the first 3 quarters don't count, certainly they do seeing as basketball is a game of runs.

I was also surprised by the Off Court Offensive Rating. Even more telling is that Pippen was in the game for a lot of those off court minutes for Jordan, since Phil Jackson would almost always keep one of the two players in the game to play with the bench unit (unless it was garbage time). The Bulls bench was inconsistent, though I think the statistics here underrate their capabilities. Even players like Will Perdue (great passer) were excellent players within their roles off the bench. In Pippen's case, he was an excellent creator and deadly in transition, though his outside jump shot was shaky. What is most impressive how he really improved his outside shooting over his career, considering how bad he was as a rookie.

But that bench came through for them in big games as well, notably Game 6 vs. Portland in the Finals. For a good portion of that game it looked like the Blazers were going to force a Game 7, but early in the 4th quarter the bench unit led by Pippen, Hansen, etc went on a run to cut the big Blazers lead down. When Jordan subbed back in he helped to finish them off the last 6 minutes.

The only downside is the poor video quality of some of these games compared with today. Imagine seeing an explosive move off the dribble like this in high definition.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oF2iBb6fp5g[/youtube]

[colts18]

Did you keep track of MJ's defense?

[Dipper 13]

Did you keep track of MJ's defense?

If you mean individual defense then no, except in Crunch Time.

15/55 FG (27.3%)

This is primarily measuring his 1 on 1 defense in isolation, post up, and close outs on the spot up shooter. Remember 1 of the 2 Bulls playoff losses in 1991 came on a Hersey Hawkins game winner with Jordan closing out on him.


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuiQBs_z_bQ[/youtube]

[lorak]

In this (incomplete) footage he averages 33.7 points while shooting 53.5% from the floor (1672/3128), which is basically what he averaged in the 1987-88 and 1988-89 regular seasons.

We don't know how many minutes he played in your sample. So only stats we can compare to his real stats are 3P and 2P.

Over that period ('90-'92), with all playoff games included and regular season games proportionally equal to the amount in your sample he in reality was shooting 53.5% 2P and 34.5% 3P. Your sample says 54.7% 2P and 38.3% 3P. So it's 9.9% and 2.2% difference from his real stats over that period, so it seems as his stats from your sample are increased by highlight bias by about 6.1%.

But I don't see how this highlight bias affects his Synergy breakdown (1.98 PPP in Transition), or his Clutch statistics in the 82games.com format

Very easily - most of these games are better Jordan's games, so his numbers, also synergy and clutch numbers, are affected and increased by that. (and of course 52 FGA are missed from your sample, most of them probably missed shots, and it could decrease his FG% even by 1 percentage point).

As I said, I wish you would do it at least with separation between playoffs and regular season. Because in form like you presented these information might be significantly away from truth. (I mean, for example instead of being +70% at rim, he rather was just below 70%, or instead of +50% from midrange he was 48%.)

[Dipper 13]

^I was also referring to his tendencies, especially driving left vs. right in isolation. I would be shocked if he was below 90% FG in transition, but you never know. From this point on it's up to the NBA to release the pre-1997 data, though now it is clear why they haven't done so. They don't want to upset all the statistical fans who manipulate certain numbers into preaching how the 2000's is the greatest era in NBA history. They don't make money promoting the past, but rather the present.

[lorak]

From this point on it's up to the NBA to release the pre-1997 data, though now it is clear why they haven't done so. They don't want to upset all the statistical fans who manipulate certain numbers into preaching how the 2000's is the greatest era in NBA history. They don't make money promoting the past, but rather the present.

That's silly. NBA is very high on the past, they praise old player and history of the league.