Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[Rafael122]

I see nowhere that we have the Pelicans' 2nd round pick this year. That's in 2015.

[thinker07]

Charlotte currently has the eight spot in the east with an 8-11 record. That means it is conceivable that the Wizards could win 35 games, make the playoffs as the eight seed, and lose their first round pick as part of the Marcin Gortat trade. Can we please fire EG now.

And if the Zards resign Gortat they will have likely locked up a player who is more productive and more instrumental to building a contender than a mid-first round pick.

There's a lot of reasons to fire EG but I don't think the trade for Gortat is one of them.

Signing Gortat is completely independent of whether they traded for him or not. As bad as the east is this year, the Wizards could have kept Okafor, strive to win half their games which should be good enough to make the playoffs this year, and then sign Gortat in the off season. Had they done this, they would have had a pretty good shot at getting everything (ie, the playoffs, Gortat, and the first round pick).

Basically they are renting Gortat for a season to help them make the playoffs when they should be able to achieve that goal without him.

I don't think that's right. I think having Gortat this year - loving playing with John Wall and loving living in DC gives us a huge advantage in resigning him next summer. I think he will also be instrumental in turning Vesely's confidence around as a mentor. I also think that the Wiz would not be making the playoffs without Gortat and without the injured Okafor. I don't see how the team would be competitive with Ves or Seraphin as the starter and first big off the bench. Without Gortat, what would we be in the games where Nene can't play? I don't think there's much of a way we'd win many games with Ves AND Seraphin in the starting lineup.

Finally - right now the 15th pick next year doesn't project as a great player. This coming draft is the deepest in years at the top but not nearly as deep in the middle.

[nate33]

Honestly, probably the best thing that can happen is for Gortat to leave and join another team, Ted to get fed up with EG and fire him for squandering our pick, a new GM is hired, but too late in the offseason to make a big name acquisition, and then he just signs or trades for a few 1-year rentals (maybe we take Boozer off of Chicago's hands). Next year, we play mediocre ball featuring stellar play out of Wall and Beal, but no help from the frontcourt. But by the Trade Deadline, we manage to dump Nene and position ourselves with huge cap room in 2015.

[leswizards]

Charlotte currently has the eight spot in the east with an 8-11 record. That means it is conceivable that the Wizards could win 35 games, make the playoffs as the eight seed, and lose their first round pick as part of the Marcin Gortat trade. Can we please fire EG now.

Don't forget, it's also very possible to miss the playoffs and lose the pick. Best of both worlds. And EG extended would cap another perfect season.

While technically possible, I think it is practically impossible. Too many Eastern conference teams would have to improve, and too many Western conference teams would have to become worse. If the Wizards fail to make the playoffs, it almost certainly means their record will be so far below .500 that at least 2 or more Western conference teams will be in the lottery that have better records than the Wizards.

[fishercob]

he team you see right now is at it's peak. Maybe we win 50 games in a pathetic East if we stay reasonably healthy. We will plateau as Nene and Gortat's decline offset any improvement out of Wall and Beal. Nene's healthy is sure to be a big concern going forward. We will never get much better. We are pretty much the Atlanta Hawks now. Respectable, but never a threat to compete. Only we are pushing the luxtax just to maintain it.

I think this line of thinking discounts the role of timing, luck, and just how dynamic things can be in the NBA.

Just based on our existing roster today, the range of possible outcomes is huge depending on the how good Wall, Beal, and Porter become. This year we will likely be without a first round pick. But we have all our future firsts and we have New Orleans' 2nd this year. If one of those "hits" maybe it becomes a core piece or a key asset in a transformational trade.

It's presumptuous to say that signing Gortat means we won't have cap room to sign a top tier free agent. Maybe we have to pay someone off with a draft pick to pay him, but that could be worth it.

Look, I hate Ernie as a GM and I've been sorely disappointed by Leonsis as an owner. But PIF Is right -- this situation is manageable. I pray that Ted rewards Ernie for his service and gives him the Bruce Allen role this summer, and then goes and hires a better GM. I don't buy the peaking bit. Not yet at least.

There's always the chance that luck plays a role and we find a steal late in the draft. But let's face it, we're going to be picking in the 16-24 range for the next few years, you can't plan on finding difference making starters when you pick so low. I'd say the chances of us lucking to the upside are probably less than us lucking to the downside with some kind of career-ending injury or major regression to one of our core players.

I disagree with the notion that things can be "managed". Management implies there is a specific plan of action to get us from point A to point B. From where we are now, there's no realistic "plan" we could put together now that makes us materially better than we are now. All we can do is try to hold it together for a while and hope something falls into our laps from out of left field. There's no reason to be particularly optimistic.

I'm not saying it's a disaster. Certainly there are worse positions to be in than to have a top 20ish star player and 45-52 win team for the next few years. At least we're not in 35-win purgatory with no exciting stars to draw fans.

There's a 100% chance that luck will play a role. You can look at the fortunes of every team in the league and cite examples of how things went one way when they could have gone another. It's just the nature of life.

I do not agree that management implies a specific plan of action. How could it -- circumstances change, opportunities crop up, values fluctuate, etc. Your action plan just can't be that specific when you're planning for the long term. You have general guiding principles that you do your best to stay true to, but within that you react to the landscape.

Why did we trade two picks for Glen Rice Jr when we had Porter, Beal, Webster and Ariza in tow? For the same reason the Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins, right? The value was too good for them to pass up based on where he was picked. Maybe he becomes a chip in a trade -- or maybe he gets so good where we can trade Beal. That's simple opportunism. It may not work and our decision-makers certainly have a worse track record than lots of their peers, but hey, Martell Webster.

[leswizards]

I think he will also be instrumental in turning Vesely's confidence around as a mentor.

Vesely is a free agent. Having his confidence improve is of zero value to the Wizards' future.

I also think that the Wiz would not be making the playoffs without Gortat and without the injured Okafor. I don't see how the team would be competitive with Ves or Seraphin as the starter and first big off the bench. Without Gortat, what would we be in the games where Nene can't play? I don't think there's much of a way we'd win many games with Ves AND Seraphin in the starting lineup.

Only 2 teams have winning records in the east right now. Making the playoffs this year is not going to be that difficult, and it is something that the Wizards should be able to accomplish with or without Gortat.

I think having Gortat this year - loving playing with John Wall and loving living in DC gives us a huge advantage in resigning him next summer.

Pure speculation, and not worth a first round pick (there are other quality free agents after all).

[nate33]

There's a 100% chance that luck will play a role. You can look at the fortunes of every team in the league and cite examples of how things went one way when they could have gone another. It's just the nature of life.

I do not agree that management implies a specific plan of action. How could it -- circumstances change, opportunities crop up, values fluctuate, etc. Your action plan just can't be that specific when you're planning for the long term. You have general guiding principles that you do your best to stay true to, but within that you react to the landscape.

Fine. Luck always plays a role. But there's good luck and bad luck.

From where we are now, given our future picks available, our future cap space available, the age of our players, and the management in place, I think the chances of bad things happening to diminish our future chances are now just as likely as the chances of good things happening to improve them. I therefore assert that we have peaked from a team building perspective. As such, I say that we need to seriously explore trades that maximize the height of that peak, i.e. trading developing prospects for prospects who are currently in their prime.

If you want to argue that Porter for Ilyasova is bad from a value perspective, that's fine. That's an argument that can persuade me. But if you want to argue that we shouldn't trade the 20 year old Porter for the 26 year old Ilyasova because it'll diminish our future prosperity, I'm unimpressed. I see a roughly 3-4 year plateau with this crew, I'd rather have that plateau be a little higher rather than a little longer. We can then reboot.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, we haven't had a core in decades that's this good on defense that can also be a good offensive team. It probably has another 2 and a fraction year shelf-life. If you can add 2 more good role-players that fit, we'll probably have the 3rd best team in the East.

[fishercob]

There's a 100% chance that luck will play a role. You can look at the fortunes of every team in the league and cite examples of how things went one way when they could have gone another. It's just the nature of life.

I do not agree that management implies a specific plan of action. How could it -- circumstances change, opportunities crop up, values fluctuate, etc. Your action plan just can't be that specific when you're planning for the long term. You have general guiding principles that you do your best to stay true to, but within that you react to the landscape.

Fine. Luck always plays a role. But there's good luck and bad luck.

From where we are now, given our future picks available, our future cap space available, the age of our players, and the management in place, I think the chances of bad things happening to diminish our future chances are now just as likely as the chances of good things happening to improve them. I therefore assert that we have peaked from a team building perspective. As such, I say that we need to seriously explore trades that maximize the height of that peak, i.e. trading developing prospects for prospects who are currently in their prime.

If you want to argue that Porter for Ilyasova is bad from a value perspective, that's fine. That's an argument that can persuade me. But if you want to argue that we shouldn't trade the 20 year old Porter for the 26 year old Ilyasova because it'll diminish our future prosperity, I'm unimpressed. I see a roughly 3-4 year plateau with this crew, I'd rather have that plateau be a little higher rather than a little longer. We can then reboot.

Then explore Beal trades. He has much, much more value on the open market than Porter, and he's just not all that productive yet.

Beal for Faried and pick?
Beal, Ves, Seraphin for Al Horford?
Joakim Noah, Josh Smith, Cousins, Deandre Jordan?
Beal and Porter for Ilyasova and Larry Sanders?

[DCZards]

I don't think that's right. I think having Gortat this year - loving playing with John Wall and loving living in DC gives us a huge advantage in resigning him next summer. I think he will also be instrumental in turning Vesely's confidence around as a mentor. I also think that the Wiz would not be making the playoffs without Gortat and without the injured Okafor. I don't see how the team would be competitive with Ves or Seraphin as the starter and first big off the bench. Without Gortat, what would we be in the games where Nene can't play? I don't think there's much of a way we'd win many games with Ves AND Seraphin in the starting lineup.

Finally - right now the 15th pick next year doesn't project as a great player. This coming draft is the deepest in years at the top but not nearly as deep in the middle.

Yup, without Okafor and with Nene missing probably 15-20 games this season the chances of the Zards making the playoffs would have been slim to none. Bringing in a quality starter and big man like Gortat was critical for that reason alone. And the chances of resigning Gortat (as opposed to signing him as a free agent) are significantly better, imo, now that he's already bonding with his teammates and the city of DC.

I heard Gortat on 980 AM yesterday talking about the "chemistry" (his word) that he's developing with Wall and how he likes the way the team has gelled recently. He also said that he's gotten to know Wall better and called him a "good kid" who welcomes advice and constructive criticism. Gortat said Wall seems like he's "from another planet" with the speed in which he gets up and down the court.

[montestewart]

Yes, it is a dynamic arena, and it calls for a dynamic and visionary manager. With the right leader running the show and trying to undo damage, I can see this team turning around (so I guess I don't fully buy the peaking bit either). But as long as EG is making the decisions, I'll assume that every decision, big or small, is probably making things worse.

monte, I hate Ernie as a GM, but that's not fair.

Ernie stole Martell Webster off the free agent heap last year and appears to have gotten him for a bargain with his contract this summer.

Ariza, who is now being referred to as part of our core, was part of what was seemingly the worst trade in sports history.

He's had more misses than hits, but he's had some hits -- even recently.

Yeah, even with that "probably" thrown in, it's probably unfair. Ariza is the player I hoped he'd be, and Webster is better than I'd hoped, but adding Porter while (it seems to me) ignoring critical needs up front and at PG just reinforces my sense that despite some good players added here and there, the roster building strategy is fragmented such that even those occasional successes have not really contributed to significant or sustainable improvement.

Plus, when it comes to EG, I've just turned into a big old goddam b*tc*

[verbal8]

Honestly, probably the best thing that can happen is for Gortat to leave and join another team, Ted to get fed up with EG and fire him for squandering our pick, a new GM is hired, but too late in the offseason to make a big name acquisition, and then he just signs or trades for a few 1-year rentals (maybe we take Boozer off of Chicago's hands). Next year, we play mediocre ball featuring stellar play out of Wall and Beal, but no help from the frontcourt. But by the Trade Deadline, we manage to dump Nene and position ourselves with huge cap room in 2015.

Could dumping Nene and acquiring Boozer happen in the same move? It pushes the Wizards into the luxury tax, but it gets Chicago nearly out of it.

[LyricalRico]

Could dumping Nene and acquiring Boozer happen in the same move? It pushes the Wizards into the luxury tax, but it gets Chicago nearly out of it.

Assume you're talking about a 3-way? Not sure what the chances would be, since I'd think there's a decent chance the third team would be more interested in Boozer. I guess it all depends on who the third team is.

As for Nene for Boozer straight up, I don't think Chicago does it. Yes, it gives them some immediate relief due to the salary disparity this season. But they already gave Taj Gibson a sizeable extension to play the same position, and they would lose the ability to amnesty Boozer next summer if they wanted to take the roster in a different direction.

[DCZards]

Then explore Beal trades. He has much, much more value on the open market than Porter, and he's just not all that productive yet.

Beal for Faried and pick?
Beal, Ves, Seraphin for Al Horford?
Joakim Noah, Josh Smith, Cousins, Deandre Jordan?
Beal and Porter for Ilyasova and Larry Sanders?

Man, I hate talk of trading Beal. I know these deals are potentially in the best long-term interest of the team...but Beal is only 20 years, and he's developing rapidly to the point that it's already pretty clear that he could very well turn out to be a regular all-star and one of the top 2-3 SGs in the NBA. And he's got a good head on his shoulders.

Early on I compared Beal to one of my all-time fav players, Mitch Richmond. I'd hate to see the Zards blow it with Beal like the Warriors did when they traded Mitch to the Kings for the rights to Billy Owens.

[Ruzious]

No worries. We'll need to keep Beal to set up the sign and trade for Durant in 2 plus years.

[fishercob]

Then explore Beal trades. He has much, much more value on the open market than Porter, and he's just not all that productive yet.

Beal for Faried and pick?
Beal, Ves, Seraphin for Al Horford?
Joakim Noah, Josh Smith, Cousins, Deandre Jordan?
Beal and Porter for Ilyasova and Larry Sanders?

Man, I hate talk of trading Beal. I know these deals are potentially in the best long-term interest of the team...but Beal is only 20 years, and he's developing rapidly to the point that it's already pretty clear that he could very well turn out to be a regular all-star and one of the top 2-3 SGs in the NBA. And he's got a good head on his shoulders.

Early on I compared Beal to one of my all-time fav players, Mitch Richmond. I'd hate to see the Zards blow it with Beal like the Warriors did when they traded Mitch to the Kings for the rights to Billy Owens.

I'm not interested in trading Beal, nor am I interested in trading Porter at the moment. But I'm open to anything.

And I think the "we're peaking and there's not much upside beyond this" crowd should consider trading Beal before trading Porter because Beal has so much more value on the open market right now. We're winning without Beal; he's not all that productive yet. MOving him could help us add a star player or close to a team that already has a strong top six.

Personally, I think such a move would be short-sited and it illustrates why trading Porter would be as well.

[DCZards]

I'm not interested in trading Beal, nor am I interested in trading Porter at the moment. But I'm open to anything.

And I think the "we're peaking and there's not much upside beyond this" crowd should consider trading Beal before trading Porter because Beal has so much more value on the open market right now. We're winning without Beal; he's not all that productive yet. MOving him could help us add a star player or close to a team that already has a strong top six.

Personally, I think such a move would be short-sited and it illustrates why trading Porter would be as well.

The problem I have with the "peaking" crowd is that many of them are the same people who thought the world was coming to an end when the Zards traded for Okafor/Ariza and that EG overpaid for Webster. I think they've been proven wrong on both counts. So I'm not to eager to see the Zards make personnel moves and decisions based on that crowd's analysis.

[LyricalRico]

I'm not interested in trading Beal, nor am I interested in trading Porter at the moment. But I'm open to anything.

And I think the "we're peaking and there's not much upside beyond this" crowd should consider trading Beal before trading Porter because Beal has so much more value on the open market right now. We're winning without Beal; he's not all that productive yet. MOving him could help us add a star player or close to a team that already has a strong top six.

Personally, I think such a move would be short-sited and it illustrates why trading Porter would be as well.

The problem I have with the "peaking" crowd is that many of them are the same people who thought the world was coming to an end when the Zards traded for Okafor/Ariza and that EG overpaid for Webster. I think they've been proven wrong on both counts. So I'm not to eager to see the Zards make personnel moves and decisions based on that crowd's analysis.

Well said.

[fishercob]

I'm not interested in trading Beal, nor am I interested in trading Porter at the moment. But I'm open to anything.

And I think the "we're peaking and there's not much upside beyond this" crowd should consider trading Beal before trading Porter because Beal has so much more value on the open market right now. We're winning without Beal; he's not all that productive yet. MOving him could help us add a star player or close to a team that already has a strong top six.

Personally, I think such a move would be short-sited and it illustrates why trading Porter would be as well.

The problem I have with the "peaking" crowd is that many of them are the same people who thought the world was coming to an end when the Zards traded for Okafor/Ariza and that EG overpaid for Webster. I think they've been proven wrong on both counts. So I'm not to eager to see the Zards make personnel moves and decisions based on that crowd's analysis.

I disagree. I think what is happening is pretty much what they predicted -- that the Wizards' rush to get good was going to keep them from being great. That may prove to be right, but I think it's too early to make that call. I am constantly reminded that the best poker players lose big hands and crappy ones win them. Making the right moves doesn't always get you the intended outcome. I think Ernie sucks at poker, but hopefully he's that lucky idiot at the table that everyone ends up hating.

[TGW]

The "peaking" crowd is wrong? Really...I think the "peaking" crowd has been right the past 4 years, and people like DCZards and Hands have been consistently wrong for the past 4 years.

The pro-Okariza people have absolutely been proven wrong. Ariza and Okafor provided nothing towards a winning season. Ariza has been solid so far this season, but he's in his contract year, and if you look at Ariza's past, his contract years have been his best ones. More than likely he walks this year anyway, so that's pretty much nothing in return. Okafor...well I don't need to say anything about that—his career might be over.

As for Webster...I'll take a wait-and-see approach on him. I still think he overpaid according to the market, and I definitely am not convinced that wasn't the case. EG just overbid himself like a fool.

And I like how you completely left out Maynor, who you've been completely wrong about.