AussieBuck wrote:cinema wrote:We don't need to trade Sanders. One of the few things our organization has gotten right is properly valuing his defense.
We don't need to trade Larry. Bowl us over, or enjoy Gustavo Ayon. Either way, we're fine.
So you want to trade Henson?
What I "want" is another top-3 pick. I want 2 of Wiggins, Embiid and Exum (and Parker, I suppose).
I also, long-term, don't want to see Sanders and Henson sharing the court for any extended minutes: Giannis -- and the pick -- should have as much space as possible to operate when going to the rim.
I'm fine with keeping both Sanders and Henson, and having one -- probably Henson -- back up the other. We have Henson cheap for two years and then the qualifying offer: it isn't a decision we need to make now.
Henson's Opp. FGP at the Rim is 41.9% so far. For reference, Hibbert is at 41.3%. If that's sustainable for Henson -- and IF his rotations and positioning come around as much as Sanders' did -- then I would hope to extend Henson and trade -- or have already traded -- Sanders.
A brief wander to connect two paths: acquiring two top-3 picks in this upcoming draft would take... a lot. A whole hell of a lot. We're already doing the hard part of getting one. As a thought experiment, let's say each of the top-3 picks costs $100 to buy. Our ineptitude is going to hopefully see us with $100 in our hands come draft time, "free of charge". Because of that, I'm willing to overpay for a second top-3 pick. Say, paying $150 for $100. Yes, that transaction alone, it's an overpay, but us already having $100 for free justifies it for me.
To acquire that second pick, I'd first offer our 2015 first and our 2017 first. I doubt it's enough. Anyways, with how awful the East is, a core comprised of Giannis, Middleton, Knight, Sanders, Henson, and anything we get out of Ilyasova, with two of Wiggins/Embiid/Exum (or Parker) makes the playoffs -- assuming a competent coach is at the helm. In the risk/reward assessment, I don't think it's that big of a gamble.
I also think that, if you remove one of Sanders and Henson from that core, you still have a promising enough core to make the playoffs moving forward, with the same caveat as before. And with Embiid being one of the potential top picks, maybe a team would have to think about taking one of the bigs, with a pick -- or two picks, or a pick and a pick-swap -- for their draft slot. And, along that line of thinking, since Henson has more value, if that team would demand Henson and not Sanders or just picks, well, bye, John, thanks for all you've done.
I'll put it like this. I think having a core of Giannis/Middleton/Henson/Sanders/Knight/Wolters/Miroslav, with two of Exum/Wiggins/Parker is worth not having two future firsts. The stars are there, the D is there, and, should Mayo and Zaza be traded, we can afford to overpay for, say, Kawhi Leonard, use our Bird Rights on everyone to re-sign them even if we're over the cap and, well, just grow and win. I also think a core Giannis/Middleton/Knight/Wolters/Miroslav/Embiid, with one of Henson and Sanders, and one of Exum/Wiggins/Parker, is worth trading one of our bigs and a future first -- and potentially even more.
This team has pieces in place that, should the right coach be brought in, two of the top picks of this draft could help this team reach success a lot earlier than most rebuilds. I think it's a gamble worth taking. We aren't signing a star in free agency. We need the draft. We already found one. We look to be getting a second. Nabbing a third, with our complement of shooters and rim protectors, would be a huge score.
So, like I said earlier in the thread. I'm not trading either of Sanders or Henson unless I'm absolutely floored by what's being offered. If I'm trading one of them, it's either down the road or to acquire another top pick.
Who I want to trade, immediately, is Zaza. Zaza and Mayo. They have got to go. I'd take back any contract shorter than three years with them, and give them the Gooden/Hedo treatment for two seasons if need be. Give me Charlie V for Mayo. Or Ben Gordon. Whoever. Find me any expiring or like-salary-matching two-years-remaining for Zaza. Zaza is grossly overpaid for his role on this team, Mayo is, at this point, just bad, and there's a real risk of losing any chance of ditching him if it isn't done soon. I want as much space as possible in 2015 -- maybe Kawhi becomes available, and even if he doesn't, Middleton's new contract could conceivably push a status-quo roster over the cap, if Zaza and Mayo are still around.