Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[closg00]

*Sigh* A smart, real GM with long-term vision....and some here want to justify keeping Ernie around even longer.
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/23 ... -Long-View

[dckingsfan]

I hear ya monte, I'm conflicted too. I certainly don't want to see more of the same for the next decade like the last.

I think you nailed it... and a smarter guy than all of us would tell you to kick EG to the curb. Nothing has changed about EG or his methods - why would we expect a different outcome.

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein

[DCZards]

Bottom line is 43-68. Obviously what's acceptable to you wouldn't be acceptable to many. .

While important, wins is just one of the standards by which I judge the value of the Okafor/Ariza trade. First you get better and then you win...and whether you're willing to admit it or not that's exactly what's happening with the Zards.

But I support replacing EG because I think we need fresh thinking and new ideas in the FO.

[Dat2U]

Another good post, Sev.

If you made a poll the day the Okaforiza trade was made and stated the Wizards record would be 43-68 and we'd have to cough up a 1st round pick to replace Okafor with another starting C to get to that record, I wonder how many people would be so accepting of the Okaforiza deal then?

I don't think it's that simple. What would our record have been without the deal? It also, as Sev explains, presents a snapshot of one moment in time, rather than looking at a longer time horizon. I'm not smart enough to entirely dismiss the notion that you need to walk before you can run; there's some unquantifiable value in developing Wall here.

Some questions to consider -- would you trade Ariza and Gortat today for Anderson and mid-late first? I can see some merit to the deal, but I'm hardly convinced it would make the WIzards better on the court immediately.

Ariza has exceeded this entire board's expectations. He is playing like an elite, championship-level, 3-and-D guy. I think nearly everyone here thought we were basically getting just "a guy" who could defend, but was closer to a self-check on offense than a threat.

Obligatory line about feeling dirty and still wanting Ernie replaced.

Easily I'd choose Anderson.. because both Gortat & Ariza are free agents and their return is dependent on how much were willing to pay them. A short term view would be that we've taken a step back, but considering Gortat & Ariza can leave for nothing after this year OR we can overpay them and be riddled with two overpaid fringe starters making all-star type coin for the next 3-4 years (and be locked into an ugly situation with little flexibility), I'd choose an ideal fit like Anderson who still has another 2 yrs left on his modest deal and build on a core of Wall, Beal, Porter, Anderson & Webster.

[tontoz]

NBA purgatory is being mediocre and capped out. That is exactly where the Okariza deal put us.

[Kanyewest]

Sev does a goo job of laying out the argument that many of the supporters of the Okafor/Ariza trade, like myself, made at the time of the trade--and continue to make. We can argue ad infinitum as to how the trade will impact the Zards ability to build a championship contender in the future, but at this point it's clear that the trade is benefiting both the short -term bottom line (winning and learning to play as a unit) as well as the development/confidence of the Zards two most valuable properties--John Wall and Bradley Beal. And that's a good thing.

Might the signing of a Ryan Anderson during the summer of 2012 have helped the Zards even more? Possibly. But there is no guarantee that Anderson would have ended up with the Zards even if they had not traded for Okafor and Ariza. Anderson in a Zards uni may have turned out to be little more than wishful thinking.

Bottom line is 43-68. Obviously what's acceptable to you wouldn't be acceptable to many.

If you made a poll the day the Okaforiza trade was made and stated the Wizards record would be 43-68 and we'd have to cough up a 1st round pick to replace Okafor with another starting C to get to that record, I wonder how many people would be so accepting of the Okaforiza deal then?

So you and others can continue to move the goalposts as close as possible, hoping that an inept front office can somehow not manage to f*ck up this wonderful opportunity to play .500 ball during a historically bad year in the East and scoop up a top 4 seed.

Since the Wizards were 4-25 without Wall and 24-25 with him, you would have to consider the trade a mild success. It also allowed the Wizards the opportunity to pick in the top 8 and they got lucky and got the #3 pick.

Even with the Okafor injury, I didn't think the Wizards had to cough up a 1st round pick for Gortat. They could have signed a big with the LLE instead of Maynor.

[verbal8]

So the Wizards have given up 2 picks - a 2nd and next years 1st rounder and $30 million($43 million minus 13 million for Lewis) to get 2 seasons of Ariza and 1 season of Okafor and 1 season of Gortat. It seems like a significant(but not outrageous) overpay in terms of money. When you factor in the picks and the opportunity to get players at below market cost in the draft, it looks a lot worse.

[Kanyewest]

Another good post, Sev.

If you made a poll the day the Okaforiza trade was made and stated the Wizards record would be 43-68 and we'd have to cough up a 1st round pick to replace Okafor with another starting C to get to that record, I wonder how many people would be so accepting of the Okaforiza deal then?

I don't think it's that simple. What would our record have been without the deal? It also, as Sev explains, presents a snapshot of one moment in time, rather than looking at a longer time horizon. I'm not smart enough to entirely dismiss the notion that you need to walk before you can run; there's some unquantifiable value in developing Wall here.

Some questions to consider -- would you trade Ariza and Gortat today for Anderson and mid-late first? I can see some merit to the deal, but I'm hardly convinced it would make the WIzards better on the court immediately.

The first round pick would have been better than a mid to late first round pick since we would have been worse without Gortat

[fishercob]

Another good post, Sev.

If you made a poll the day the Okaforiza trade was made and stated the Wizards record would be 43-68 and we'd have to cough up a 1st round pick to replace Okafor with another starting C to get to that record, I wonder how many people would be so accepting of the Okaforiza deal then?

I don't think it's that simple. What would our record have been without the deal? It also, as Sev explains, presents a snapshot of one moment in time, rather than looking at a longer time horizon. I'm not smart enough to entirely dismiss the notion that you need to walk before you can run; there's some unquantifiable value in developing Wall here.

Some questions to consider -- would you trade Ariza and Gortat today for Anderson and mid-late first? I can see some merit to the deal, but I'm hardly convinced it would make the WIzards better on the court immediately.

Ariza has exceeded this entire board's expectations. He is playing like an elite, championship-level, 3-and-D guy. I think nearly everyone here thought we were basically getting just "a guy" who could defend, but was closer to a self-check on offense than a threat.

Obligatory line about feeling dirty and still wanting Ernie replaced.

Easily I'd choose Anderson.. because both Gortat & Ariza are free agents and their return is dependent on how much were willing to pay them.

Okay. So now "multiply" whatever hypothetical marginal value you get from the Anderson/pick package by the probability of executing that Anderson acquisition. My point is -- to echo Sev -- that the WIzards played it safe. They may have limited their upside, but they limited their downside too. And given what the organization had been through over the preceding few years, I understand why they opted for the safer play of professionalism and stability. Again, I'm still all in favor of replacing Ernie (I hate that I have to keep saying that), but I don't think that trade was a disaster.[/quote]

[nate33]

[Coda - did you really use the 2013 draft to say "The Okariza acquisition should have really cost us a lot of long term talent, but we were saved by the lotto balls"? The worst draft since 2000, according to many? The one where we picked the guy who has so many posters concerned whether he's even an NBA contributor, let alone a star? Where it has been suggested we'd have been better off staying at 8 and picking Adams or Olynyk? Sorry, but if you're saying he undervalued the 2013 draft when he should have tanked for talent, I'm not buying that as a mark against EG. And that's not even addressing the Noel issue... ]

While it may be true that there is little difference in talent between the 8th and 3rd pick, that is again, luck on EG's part. In the abstract, the win-now move to acquire Okariza ultimately cost us numerous draft slots and then put us in position where we were forced to double down and sacrifice a future pick due to the Okafor injury. That's horrible GMing. It was only dumb luck that the draft was surprisingly even in talent across the top 11 picks, and more dumb luck that we picked #3. (And our unwillingness to draft Noel may also prove to be a disaster.)

I also think Booker at the time easily had as much value as Ayon. Their numbers were basically the same, only Booker was 2 years younger and had a 2-year track record at the time rather than just the 1000 minutes that Ayon had.

[stevemcqueen1]

Bottom line is 43-68. Obviously what's acceptable to you wouldn't be acceptable to many. .

While important, wins is just one of the standards by which I judge the value of the Okafor/Ariza trade. First you get better and then you win...and whether you're willing to admit it or not that's exactly what's happening with the Zards.

But I support replacing EG because I think we need fresh thinking and new ideas in the FO.

I agree on both counts.

I think the build gets harder though, moving forward, because we aren't going to have tons of cap flexibility, we have to find big men (which is hardest), and we aren't going to have good draft picks any more. I don't trust Ernie to get it right moving forward.

Right now, we don't have any bargain deals. This is a legacy of not being able to truly clear our books when we bottomed out IMO, and not having any worthwhile homegrown bigs. Still had Blatche's and Arenas's contract. Blatche and McGee were busts. In an ideal world, we'd have a young quality big to grow with Wall and Beal. But we're probably not going to get that. So we're going to be looking for Gortats and hoping for the best throughout the Wall/Beal era IMO.

[dckingsfan]

.

FAH - a simple poll please

1) Yes, I believe it is time for EG to go now
2) Ted should let him go at the end of the season
3) No, Ted needs to give him more time

[Kanyewest]

.

FAH - a simple poll please

1) Yes, I believe it is time for EG to go now
2) Ted should let him go at the end of the season
3) No, Ted needs to give him more time

I'm fine with 1 or 2.

[MJG]

NBA purgatory is being mediocre and capped out. That is exactly where the Okariza deal put us.

NBA hell is going all-in to reach NBA purgatory and failing year after year.

[hands11]

Bottom line is 43-68. Obviously what's acceptable to you wouldn't be acceptable to many. .

While important, wins is just one of the standards by which I judge the value of the Okafor/Ariza trade. First you get better and then you win...and whether you're willing to admit it or not that's exactly what's happening with the Zards.

But I support replacing EG because I think we need fresh thinking and new ideas in the FO.

I agree on both counts.

I think the build gets harder though, moving forward, because we aren't going to have tons of cap flexibility, we have to find big men (which is hardest), and we aren't going to have good draft picks any more. I don't trust Ernie to get it right moving forward.

Right now, we don't have any bargain deals. This is a legacy of not being able to truly clear our books when we bottomed out IMO, and not having any worthwhile homegrown bigs. Still had Blatche's and Arenas's contract. Blatche and McGee were busts. In an ideal world, we'd have a young quality big to grow with Wall and Beal. But we're probably not going to get that. So we're going to be looking for Gortats and hoping for the best throughout the Wall/Beal era IMO.

Which is why we have heard so many here talking about getting a big one way or another. They could have drafted. They have had plenty of chances.

They could have Nikola, Cousins, or Drummond.

And even if they wanted to go with Wall and Beal, there were a ton of bigs in the last draft. Even if you didn't find a #1 stud, you could have gotten help. I just don't understand how they came out of that draft without one of Gorgui Dieng, Mason Plumlee, Rudy Gobert, Jeff Withey, Colton Iverson and even a big like Ryan Kelly, Mike Muscala, Cartwright. And that leaves out all the higher picks, Len, Noel, Steven Adams, Kelly O, Lucas Nogueira. The Okariza trade didn't stop us from adding one of these players.

With 3 picks, you literally had to conscientiously try to not draft a big.

Last center they drafted was Hamady N'Diaye.

Not having Okafor is really hurting them. By hook or crook, they have to find a way to add a center that can add some defensive impact.

Just feels like this team needs a shake up. Coach ? Move some players ? Something. Hard to see Ted bringing back EG because he has missed to many details in strategy. Not getting a center. Letting Crawford go for nothing before you had a player to replace what he provided. Now Kendall Marshall playing well in LA. That's just not good enough.

[dckingsfan]

.

FAH - a simple poll please

1) Yes, I believe it is time for EG to go now
2) Ted should let him go at the end of the season
3) No, Ted needs to give him more time

I'm fine with 1 or 2.

[dckingsfan]

[quote="FAH1223"][/quote]
Poll FAH?

[FAH1223]

POLL UP!!!!!!!

[dckingsfan]

[hands11]

All I know is something needs to happen. You can feel them starting to lose the board and I think he is loosing some of the core starters. One way or another, the team needs a more clear direction.

If they are going to start to lose, then lose. I think that would suck for Wall and effect his development but if it has to happen, get it out of the way. Then get a new GM and more on.

If not, make the right trade and make sure you have the right coach and lets get this build out.

I just have this sitting on the fence feeling and that is the worst. They have reached a stage when it feel like they are just spinning their wheels.