Olynyk's rookie season

[GreenMachine]

KO has had a bad year for a guy who is almost 23 and taken in the lottery. That's a fact. You're right that it hasn't been horrific, and that he could still turn his career around, but it's been a bad year.

Might eant to check the a erage stat line over te past 20 years of picks 10-15 there rookie years. A lot of people seem to misremember the facts when it comes to rookies.

Forget their stat lines... 34% of LOTTO PICKS from 2004 through 2008 are already out of the League! Anyone who can't see that KO is a legit NBA talent... are just ignorant (and that's me being nice).

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/23 ... Out-Of-NBA

[jirrit]

He displays no drive nor aggressiveness to succeed at this level. He looks to have thoroughly studied at the Jeff Green Academy of Basketball who's motto seems to be: Show up to play once every three weeks...except, he doesn't even show up that often.

Now if you're afraid to shoot, that's one thing but to hardly ever show up when it comes to rebounding and defense?

don't agree, he can be passive but that's more outta uncertainty imo, and not as much as Jeff.. sometimes he does get only 5-10 mins if it aint going good in these first minutes.. he does try things imo, certainly for a rookie PF/C

[jfs1000d]

KO has had a bad year? What is wrong with you people?

Kid has some talent, he's put up too many good games this year to think it's an accident. He just is learning how to play against the super athlete, that's his biggest problem. That, and minutes. We devote a healthy sum to Bass, Hump at the 4/5 with Sully.

People are way to worried about age. There isn't some magic cutoff between 20-23 that makes development not possible. There is no reason to think KO can't get any better because he was drafted as a senior.

[Golabki]

Thank Chris Forsberg for clarifying for all the doubters and haters about Olynyk's rookie season:

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4710802/kelly-olynyk-isnt-dirk-nowitzki-but



In my opinion, he looks better than Rondo and Bradley did during their rookie seasons. He's already a decent offensive player and an above average passer in the NBA, and his body is still not NBA ready. He won't win any awards on defense, for sure, but it doesn't take away from the fact that I think he's performed well during his rookie year thus far. He certainly doesn't deserve all the trash talk he's been getting on this forum lately.

A lot of the "trash talk" is a response to insanity like comparing KO to Dirk. Dirk struggled his rookie year... when KO was that age is was sitting on the bench of a mediocre college team.

KO has had a bad year for a guy who is almost 23 and taken in the lottery. That's a fact. You're right that it hasn't been horrific, and that he could still turn his career around, but it's been a bad year.

Might eant to check the a erage stat line over te past 20 years of picks 10-15 there rookie years. A lot of people seem to misremember the facts when it comes to rookies.

?


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[Golabki]

KO has had a bad year for a guy who is almost 23 and taken in the lottery. That's a fact. You're right that it hasn't been horrific, and that he could still turn his career around, but it's been a bad year.

Right... that is why he is one of only 8 rookies playing in the Rising Stars game. I guess the NBA thinks he is one of the top 8 rookies... but you certainly know way more then they do... so you are right... horrific!

Lol. "could still turn his career around" Bahahhahaha. You know NOTHING about Basketball. NOTHING.

the rising star game is a joke...

Also, I said it was NOT horrific... Just bad.




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[sam_I_am]

1. Dirk comparison is legit. Caron Butler was compared to Paul Pierce and it was accurate even if Butler only made one all star game as a reserve. KO is a 7 footer who can shoot out to 3 pt line, can drive, can pass, can finish with both hands, is an okay rebounder and a defensive liability just like Dirk. Dirk does it at an elite level but what other 7 footers can do that at all?

2. Avery Bradley rookie year was interrupted by injury and he looked lost. Second year he was an impact player. KO has showed more this year than rookie Avery so why give up on him especially now that he is finally playing like he did in summer league?

3. KO is a great shooter but he hesitates and he has happy feet. When he is set and ready to shoot he is very good. 7 footers often take more than 4 years of being a 7 footer to look coordinated. I really believe that KO will have much better foot work and a quicker release when his brain catches up to NBA speed and he gains coordination.

4. We have seen this before with other rookies. He is going to get a lot more PT when and if Bass and Hump get traded as expected for future assets. There will be ugly moments for sure but his stock around the league is about to surge.

5. His next contract will be for 10 million a year at least.

[Datruth345]

1. Dirk comparison is legit. Caron Butler was compared to Paul Pierce and it was accurate even if Butler only made one all star game as a reserve. KO is a 7 footer who can shoot out to 3 pt line, can drive, can pass, can finish with both hands, is an okay rebounder and a defensive liability just like Dirk. Dirk does it at an elite level but what other 7 footers can do that at all?

2. Avery Bradley rookie year was interrupted by injury and he looked lost. Second year he was an impact player. KO has showed more this year than rookie Avery so why give up on him especially now that he is finally playing like he did in summer league?

3. KO is a great shooter but he hesitates and he has happy feet. When he is set and ready to shoot he is very good. 7 footers often take more than 4 years of being a 7 footer to look coordinated. I really believe that KO will have much better foot work and a quicker release when his brain catches up to NBA speed and he gains coordination.

4. We have seen this before with other rookies. He is going to get a lot more PT when and if Bass and Hump get traded as expected for future assets. There will be ugly moments for sure but his stock around the league is about to surge.

5. His next contract will be for 10 million a year at least.

nice post

[tlee324]

I am not ready to use any hall of fame comparisons or anoint him as a 10 million dollar a year player, but he clearly has a future in the league as a role player in my opinion, and can be a very solid contributor in that role. Stretch the floor, grab some boards, maybe block a shot or two...I think he's already a better passer than many bigs in the league.

He's pretty weak though... very weak defensively. Dirk wasn't as weak a defender as people think, as he has had decent defensive win shares throughout his prime years, and his strengths outweighed his weaknesses overall. We still need to determine if Olynyk's weaknesses will stop him from being a 35-40mpg type of player. I have doubts he'll have seasons of 5+ defensive win shares like Dirk has, or 6+ like Bird has posted in his career. We'll see.

[sully00]

A lot of the "trash talk" is a response to insanity like comparing KO to Dirk. Dirk struggled his rookie year... when KO was that age is was sitting on the bench of a mediocre college team.

KO has had a bad year for a guy who is almost 23 and taken in the lottery. That's a fact. You're right that it hasn't been horrific, and that he could still turn his career around, but it's been a bad year.

He is one of the 3 or 4 most productive rookies in the NBA. 8th in points, 6th in rebounds, and 6th in assists the only rookies producing like that MCW and Oladipo while being 11th in minutes played. There are guys playing 25-30 mpg in a starting role who aren't producing like KO.

Nobody is trying to compare him to Dirk 4 years into his career stop acting like tools. What the point is that if you held Dirk to the same standard some of you want to hold KO to you would have been calling him bust get it?

He wasn't sitting on the bench at Gonzaga he red shirted and played for the Canadian National team while his Canadian National teammate and fellow NBA prospect played his injury red shirt senior year.

Half way through his rookie year he is putting up per 36
13.2/8.9/3.1 with almost a steal and block per 36 mins
These a decent barometer of the type of player you are if you get those mins.
There are 5 players in the NBA who are averaging over 8.9 boards and 3apg and 8 if just call it 8/3.

[KGboss]

Great post sully. Some can be so thick when it comes to rookies. So quick to throw someone on a bus out of town instead of looking at the facts.

[pac213up]

Seeing some nice improvements from KO on the offensive end. I think a productive offseason could do wonders for the kid.

[Golabki]

1. Dirk comparison is legit. Caron Butler was compared to Paul Pierce and it was accurate even if Butler only made one all star game as a reserve. KO is a 7 footer who can shoot out to 3 pt line, can drive, can pass, can finish with both hands, is an okay rebounder and a defensive liability just like Dirk. Dirk does it at an elite level but what other 7 footers can do that at all?

2. Avery Bradley rookie year was interrupted by injury and he looked lost. Second year he was an impact player. KO has showed more this year than rookie Avery so why give up on him especially now that he is finally playing like he did in summer league?

3. KO is a great shooter but he hesitates and he has happy feet. When he is set and ready to shoot he is very good. 7 footers often take more than 4 years of being a 7 footer to look coordinated. I really believe that KO will have much better foot work and a quicker release when his brain catches up to NBA speed and he gains coordination.

4. We have seen this before with other rookies. He is going to get a lot more PT when and if Bass and Hump get traded as expected for future assets. There will be ugly moments for sure but his stock around the league is about to surge.

5. His next contract will be for 10 million a year at least.

brad miller is a fair comparison, dirk is hyperbole. Brad miller would be great and would get 10m, but I think that's the high end.

Regardless, to say he's a lock for a 10 million per year contract is at the least as absurd as calling him a bust.


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[Golabki]

A lot of the "trash talk" is a response to insanity like comparing KO to Dirk. Dirk struggled his rookie year... when KO was that age is was sitting on the bench of a mediocre college team.

KO has had a bad year for a guy who is almost 23 and taken in the lottery. That's a fact. You're right that it hasn't been horrific, and that he could still turn his career around, but it's been a bad year.

He is one of the 3 or 4 most productive rookies in the NBA. 8th in points, 6th in rebounds, and 6th in assists the only rookies producing like that MCW and Oladipo while being 11th in minutes played. There are guys playing 25-30 mpg in a starting role who aren't producing like KO.

Nobody is trying to compare him to Dirk 4 years into his career stop acting like tools. What the point is that if you held Dirk to the same standard some of you want to hold KO to you would have been calling him bust get it?

He wasn't sitting on the bench at Gonzaga he red shirted and played for the Canadian National team while his Canadian National teammate and fellow NBA prospect played his injury red shirt senior year.

Half way through his rookie year he is putting up per 36
13.2/8.9/3.1 with almost a steal and block per 36 mins
These a decent barometer of the type of player you are if you get those mins.
There are 5 players in the NBA who are averaging over 8.9 boards and 3apg and 8 if just call it 8/3.

dirk was over 2 years younger - totally different.

I agree the passing is a rare and valuable skill for Bigs. There's reason for optimism. That's why I've sited brad miller.

But he's scoring less often and less efficiently than many on this board expected. His d has been really bad. And it took an injury to favs for him to solidify himself as a rotation player on a terrible team.


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[KGboss]

What is the difference between 20 and 22? They are both young kids and both rookies. Are we to assume that by 22 KO should know EVERYTHING there is to know about the sport, and be able to apply that fluidly in his rookie season? Really? What the actual ****.

[Datruth345]

i said this way back and i'll say it again

Mehmet Okur

in what i would call his 4 prime years

avg 16.8 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 46% from the field on 13 shots per game, shot 39% from 3 on 3.5 attempts per game

also picked up one all-star appearance (2007) during that time

anything higher than that being projected for Kelly i think is blind hope

[Golabki]

What is the difference between 20 and 22? They are both young kids and both rookies. Are we to assume that by 22 KO should know EVERYTHING there is to know about the sport, and be able to apply that fluidly in his rookie season? Really? What the actual ****.

22 year olds don't have to know everything. But developmentally there is a huge difference. It's not my opinion, it's an empirical fact.


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[bbd24]

What is the difference between 20 and 22? They are both young kids and both rookies. Are we to assume that by 22 KO should know EVERYTHING there is to know about the sport, and be able to apply that fluidly in his rookie season? Really? What the actual ****.

22 year olds don't have to know everything. But developmentally there is a huge difference. It's not my opinion, it's an empirical fact.


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The problem is the experience. You can't just immediately expect results when you're asking a guy like Olynyk to do everything he didn't do in college. It's an adjustment period. That's why I generally give a rookie three or four years time in the league to adjust to his role in the bigs. It doesn't matter the age, whether their 19 or 24....we wait 3/4 years and then see what they've developed into.

For Olynyk, game after game he's getting better. Still won't have the consistency needed this year, but that ultimately will come in time after he gets more and more comfortable in his role.

[Golabki]

What is the difference between 20 and 22? They are both young kids and both rookies. Are we to assume that by 22 KO should know EVERYTHING there is to know about the sport, and be able to apply that fluidly in his rookie season? Really? What the actual ****.

22 year olds don't have to know everything. But developmentally there is a huge difference. It's not my opinion, it's an empirical fact.


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The problem is the experience. You can't just immediately expect results when you're asking a guy like Olynyk to do everything he didn't do in college. It's an adjustment period. That's why I generally give a rookie three or four years time in the league to adjust to his role in the bigs. It doesn't matter the age, whether their 19 or 24....we wait 3/4 years and then see what they've developed into.

For Olynyk, game after game he's getting better. Still won't have the consistency needed this year, but that ultimately will come in time after he gets more and more comfortable in his role.

3 or 4 years seems generous... Are you really going to with hold judgement untitled he's 27? But I agree - he should get at least 2 years before we call him a bust.

However, I think he's been disappointing and the number of older rookies that become stars is very low, and those that do usually show much more than KO has in his rookie year.

I don't have a problem with people saying he can be good, I have a problem with people comparing to one of the best 10 players since Jordan or saying is floor is to be a borderline Allstar. Both of which have happened in this thread.




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[bbd24]

22 year olds don't have to know everything. But developmentally there is a huge difference. It's not my opinion, it's an empirical fact.


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The problem is the experience. You can't just immediately expect results when you're asking a guy like Olynyk to do everything he didn't do in college. It's an adjustment period. That's why I generally give a rookie three or four years time in the league to adjust to his role in the bigs. It doesn't matter the age, whether their 19 or 24....we wait 3/4 years and then see what they've developed into.

For Olynyk, game after game he's getting better. Still won't have the consistency needed this year, but that ultimately will come in time after he gets more and more comfortable in his role.

3 or 4 years seems generous... Are you really going to with hold judgement untitled he's 27? But I agree - he should get at least 2 years before we call him a bust.

However, I think he's been disappointing and the number of older rookies that become stars is very low, and those that do usually show much more than KO has in his rookie year.

I don't have a problem with people saying he can be good, I have a problem with people comparing to one of the best 10 players since Jordan or saying is floor is to be a borderline Allstar. Both of which have happened in this thread.




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I do it for all rookies, even the older ones that stayed in college. I stick generally with the 3 year rule. I give a college guy 3 years after he's been in the league to judge. The high schooler (back in the day) or 1 year and out college guy gets 4.

Look at the criticism from the past teams. People wanted Perkins gone early. You could even see the board jumping all over Rondo and his shot early on in his tenure. Tony Allen, remember what a piece of garbage he was in year 1 ?

You have to be patient with these prospects. The NBA is a whole new ball game and most have to change their games in order to fit or belong in the league.

I.E. A guy like Olynyk was never asked to shoot beyond 15 ft at Gonzaga. Now he's shooting regularly at 20-24 ft.

Its little things like this that will take adjusting too. He's going to be pretty consistent in 3 or 4 years from out there. Just needs time. He has the skill set you want in a rookie and one that is also unique to the league (Big who can space it out because of his shot).

The other part is the coaching and the fact you can commit 24/7 to basketball. He's going to get coached regularly by pro's who know the game. No knock on Gonzaga or their staff, but the NBA has the best staffs to get the most out of your game. Let him sit and work with the pro staff and see how his game evolves.

The last thing is on the player. How much work does he want to put in ? How better does he want to be ?

A kid like Olynyk is exactly what you want. He seems like he has fun out there and loves the game. He's going to put in the work needed to become better than he is today. So why judge him as a finished product today ? You gotta wait it out.

[Golabki]

The problem is the experience. You can't just immediately expect results when you're asking a guy like Olynyk to do everything he didn't do in college. It's an adjustment period. That's why I generally give a rookie three or four years time in the league to adjust to his role in the bigs. It doesn't matter the age, whether their 19 or 24....we wait 3/4 years and then see what they've developed into.

For Olynyk, game after game he's getting better. Still won't have the consistency needed this year, but that ultimately will come in time after he gets more and more comfortable in his role.

3 or 4 years seems generous... Are you really going to with hold judgement untitled he's 27? But I agree - he should get at least 2 years before we call him a bust.

However, I think he's been disappointing and the number of older rookies that become stars is very low, and those that do usually show much more than KO has in his rookie year.

I don't have a problem with people saying he can be good, I have a problem with people comparing to one of the best 10 players since Jordan or saying is floor is to be a borderline Allstar. Both of which have happened in this thread.




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I do it for all rookies, even the older ones that stayed in college. I stick generally with the 3 year rule. I give a college guy 3 years after he's been in the league to judge. The high schooler (back in the day) or 1 year and out college guy gets 4.

Look at the criticism from the past teams. People wanted Perkins gone early. You could even see the board jumping all over Rondo and his shot early on in his tenure. Tony Allen, remember what a piece of garbage he was in year 1 ?

You have to be patient with these prospects. The NBA is a whole new ball game and most have to change their games in order to fit or belong in the league.

I.E. A guy like Olynyk was never asked to shoot beyond 15 ft at Gonzaga. Now he's shooting regularly at 20-24 ft.

Its little things like this that will take adjusting too. He's going to be pretty consistent in 3 or 4 years from out there. Just needs time. He has the skill set you want in a rookie and one that is also unique to the league (Big who can space it out because of his shot).

The other part is the coaching and the fact you can commit 24/7 to basketball. He's going to get coached regularly by pro's who know the game. No knock on Gonzaga or their staff, but the NBA has the best staffs to get the most out of your game. Let him sit and work with the pro staff and see how his game evolves.

The last thing is on the player. How much work does he want to put in ? How better does he want to be ?

A kid like Olynyk is exactly what you want. He seems like he has fun out there and loves the game. He's going to put in the work needed to become better than he is today. So why judge him as a finished product today ? You gotta wait it out.

this is a steaming pile of cliche

It's as absurd to say "you don't know anything until 3 years" as it is to say "you know everything after 1 year"


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