All-Time Value (Championship Odds)

[ElGee]

A few people have asked for this list -- what are my own personal results ITO of career championship value? For those unfamiliar, the method is outlined here viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1197767

The gist of the method is this: If you evaluate a player based on how many points he improves an average team, and convert that into how much it changes any teams odds to win a title in, who had the most value in their career? (Evaluations are not based on "potential," but extrapolated based on an individuals actual performance.) All rankings through 2013...

NOTE: This list is not my GOAT list, although it informs my GOAT list and correlates highly to it. Since there are some crudities to this process, it's best used as a really good estimation, i.e., not everyone scales the exact same way in portability, thus leave room for a small % error. My personal GOAT list makes small adjustments based primarily on era and number of years played.



My top 25:



Top 11, career total by season:


Top 11, by individual season:


12-21, career total by season:

[sp6r=underrated]

Were you surprised to see how much your list was dominated by bigs?

[lorak]

Elgee, I would like to see your in detail analysis of Malone and Stockton, because there's really not much with/without data for them (and you use it to calculate SIO) and one is so high on the list, while other not at all, what seems a bit odd, especially in light of RAPM which we now have since '97.

[MacGill]

Great job here Elgee!!

Just want to copy and paste a snip here from your attached link: These are two very important aspects to me when discussing players that I just wanted to bring out and share. I will have a few other questions for you that I will edit in later on today once I give it some more thought.

(2) As a result of No. 1, fantastic "second options" (or even "third options") are more important than players who can be first options on decent teams but will see strong diminishing returns on good teams.

(3) Regular Season Player Health matters less than you think.

In the RS, for a normal portability 5 SIO player, playing the whole year results in a 21.4% chance to win the title. Playing half the year? An 20.2% chance. Playing even 10% of the year still results in an 18.0% chance to win the title, assuming the player is playing at a +5 SIO level in the RS and in the PS.

Why? Because the SRS differential the player created in the playoffs is more important than the HCA advantage lost. The majority of below average teams will never see the PS with such a player missing most of the year, but almost every time a player is on an above average team (51% of teams since 1986) his teammates will have qualified for the playoffs. Think Wilt Chamberlain in 1970 or Michael Jordan in 1986 and 1995.

The better the player, the more missing time will hurt him (because of the likelihood of losing HCA in the later rounds against better teams). An 8 SRS player added to a random team gives them a 45% chance of winning title if he's healthy all year. If he plays 10% of the RS and then the playoffs, a 32% chance of winning a title.

[ElGee]

Were you surprised to see how much your list was dominated by bigs?

Yes. Great point. West is the first player under 6-5, and Jordan is the only player in that first pod of 11 under 6-8.

[ElGee]

Elgee, I would like to see your in detail analysis of Malone and Stockton, because there's really not much with/without data for them (and you use it to calculate SIO) and one is so high on the list, while other not at all, what seems a bit odd, especially in light of RAPM which we now have since '97.

Without presenting year-by-year, which might warrant its own thread (if one doesn't already exist), The simplest explanation is that from 1988 to 2000 Malone is between 4.5 and 6.0 every year. This is giving him between .18 and .27 expected titles per season for those 13 years. This is reflected in how flat his curve is compared to the other all-time greats.

On the other hand Stockton is between 2.5 and 3.5 from 1988 to 1997. This yields about .10 to .14 expected titles for year. His longevity lands him 29th on my list. Obviously the discrepancy here is that I don't think Stockton had a very high peak.

I know you are very taken with post prime RAPM numbers of Stockton. The first thing to remember is that those numbers are only a reflection of what happened with in that players team setting in that year adjusted for the best possible fit. They are not a player ranking unto themselves. Secondly we have a huge issue of minutes played. Stockton was hand-picked to be put in the best possible situations in those years while Malone continued to carry a load in the worst possible situation. And yet they're per possession numbers aren't all that different. Both these players are very complex and I have spoken on them in a number of other projects.

[colts18]

Elgee, do you have a spreadsheet with all the season values for these players?

[lorak]

Elgee, I would like to see your in detail analysis of Malone and Stockton, because there's really not much with/without data for them (and you use it to calculate SIO) and one is so high on the list, while other not at all, what seems a bit odd, especially in light of RAPM which we now have since '97.

Without presenting year-by-year, which might warrant its own thread (if one doesn't already exist), The simplest explanation is that from 1988 to 2000 Malone is between 4.5 and 6.0 every year. This is giving him between .18 and .27 expected titles per season for those 13 years. This is reflected in how flat his curve is compared to the other all-time greats.

On the other hand Stockton is between 2.5 and 3.5 from 1988 to 1997. This yields about .10 to .14 expected titles for year. His longevity lands him 29th on my list. Obviously the discrepancy here is that I don't think Stockton had a very high peak.

Ok, but more than in "pure" values I'm interesting in how (based on what data) you come to such conclusions that Malone was 4.5-6.0 player and Stockton 2.5-3.5. Maybe indeed it would be good idea to create new thread and present year by year data with explanation.

[ardee]

Just curious ElGee, what is your reasoning for the decent-sized gap between Shaq's 2000 and 2001 seasons here?

[JLei]

Can we see 11-21 by individual season?

Curious to see your thoughts of those players by season.

[Doctor MJ]

So I'll just say I continue to think this is a really great approach. Hoping to make use of it with my own subjective views soon.

[magicmerl]

Nice. One thing to note is that LBJ's projected arc looks like it puts him *slightly* ahead of Kareem in the top10, although solidly behind Jordan and Russell. That passes the smell test for me.

[ceiling raiser]

A few people have asked for this list -- what are my own personal results ITO of career championship value? For those unfamiliar, the method is outlined here viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1197767

Great stuff ElGee, thanks for the post. Just wondering, could you please share your "Odds of Winning Title based on SIO Impact" tables (or formulas) for low and high portability players? The above link only lists odds for normal portability players for your current research.

[ElGee]

Elgee, do you have a spreadsheet with all the season values for these players?

Yes.

Just curious ElGee, what is your reasoning for the decent-sized gap between Shaq's 2000 and 2001 seasons here?

Defense mainly. And the difference between +8 and +9 is almost 10%.

Can we see 11-21 by individual season?

Curious to see your thoughts of those players by season.

If I have time later -- in the meantime, you can see the jumps from year-to-year in the totals graph.

A few people have asked for this list -- what are my own personal results ITO of career championship value? For those unfamiliar, the method is outlined here viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1197767

Great stuff ElGee, thanks for the post. Just wondering, could you please share your "Odds of Winning Title based on SIO Impact" tables (or formulas) for low and high portability players? The above link only lists odds for normal portability players for your current research.

Check the thread -- I'll add the updated tables now.

[lorak]

General idea is really great, but what's the most important, and what we should discuss, is how you decided that player has X value (SIO?) in particular season. Like in Malone vs Stockton example - how you evaluated what their value (SIO?) was in 1988 or 1992? Also, is there any method to decide what portability player has? Or is it subjective decision?

[ardee]

General idea is really great, but what's the most important, and what we should discuss, is how you decided that player has X value (SIO?) in particular season. Like in Malone vs Stockton example - how you evaluated what their value (SIO?) was in 1988 or 1992? Also, is there any method to decide what portability player has? Or is it subjective decision?

Yeah I think it's subjective evaluation. You can use in-out data if you want but essentially is a form of assigning a value to a player in comparison to his peers. We did so during the peaks project, eg '91 Jordan is a 9.5 SRS player, high portability, 86 Bird is a 8.5 SRS player, also high portability

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[colts18]

ElGee, can you post the spreadsheet with the values for these players?

[ceiling raiser]

A few people have asked for this list -- what are my own personal results ITO of career championship value? For those unfamiliar, the method is outlined here viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1197767

Great stuff ElGee, thanks for the post. Just wondering, could you please share your "Odds of Winning Title based on SIO Impact" tables (or formulas) for low and high portability players? The above link only lists odds for normal portability players for your current research.

Check the thread -- I'll add the updated tables now.

Thanks so much, great stuff. Looking forward to playing around with it.

Just wondering...I like the career CDF graphs, but I'm wondering if you could post your "Top 11, by individual season" PDF in terms of descending nth best seasons (instead of ordering chronologically; i.e. instead of 93 Shaq, 94 Shaq, 95 Shaq, 96 Shaq, etc., going 00 Shaq, 01 Shaq, 02 Shaq, 98 Shaq, etc.)? If it's not too much work, maybe the same treatment for 12-25?