The Lottery - Tuesday, May 20th

dan2314 · Post #501 » by **dan2314** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:27 am

Bknight4three wrote:If Philly was smart they would give us #10 and something for Monroe. They could build around Monroe, MCW, Parker, Noel. They aren't going to attract a FA as good as Monroe anyways and their cap situation is amazing.

do you really want pick 10 for monroe though? its really only a 6 or 7 player draft. You arent getting much extra a long with the pick, it is philly remember.

Q00 · Post #502 » by **Q00** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:29 am

I predict Cleveland takes Embiid and he becomes the next Oden.

NickLidstrom · Post #503 » by **NickLidstrom** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:32 am

dan2314 wrote:
Bknight4three wrote:If Philly was smart they would give us #10 and something for Monroe. They could build around Monroe, MCW, Parker, Noel. They aren't going to attract a FA as good as Monroe anyways and their cap situation is amazing.

do you really want pick 10 for monroe though? its really only a 6 or 7 player draft. You arent getting much extra a long with the pick, it is philly remember.

Assuming the team's going to trade Monroe, I'd consider it. Dealing RFAs is tough; the other team always has the option to just call your bluff and sign the guy to a big offer sheet hoping you won't match. I really doubt the team will get much value for Monroe this summer, so I'd just wait for an RFA offer and match it. Let Monroe play next year, show off his exceptional offensive skills, and hope some team falls in love with him at the deadline.

Bknight4three · Post #504 » by **Bknight4three** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:33 am

That all depends on what the FO wants to do with Monroe. Would I want to do that? Probably not. But if the plan is to let Monroe walk or they are seriously considering keeping Smith instead, then that is pretty good compensation for Moose.

DetroitSho · Post #505 » by **DetroitSho** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:34 am

Blkbrd671 wrote:
NickLidstrom wrote:Unless I'm mistaken, 1.7% isn't 0%. If you ran the lottery 100 times, you'd expect Cleveland to win one or two. Last year's draft is a completely separate statistical event, so the two don't relate to each other in any way.

iF I do recall correctly, i'll refer to the coin flip example. When you initially flip a coin, you have a 50% chance of it landing on heads, when you flip it again, statistically you landing on heads again is not 50% chance. While they are seperate flips, they do correlate.

*if i recall correctly

You did not just say that.

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Laimbeer · Post #506 » by **Laimbeer** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:34 am

I did get some satisfaction out of Philadelphia dropping to three after the shameless tank.

Notanoob · Post #507 » by **Notanoob** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:34 am

We can't trade Monroe for a pick in this year's draft.

Q00 · Post #508 » by **Q00** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:36 am

Bright side:

We just gained 2 mil in capspace which would've gone to the pick.

We won't get a FA for 2 mil as good as we could've at 8, but that extra 2 mil could be the difference between being able to sign an 8 mil/player or 10 mil/yr player which is a significant difference generally.

Now we might have 25 mil to spend, and even if they give 15 of it to Monroe, we'll still be able to add another major piece.

russkopp · Post #509 » by **russkopp** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:42 am

Lets get realistic here. This is Dumars last Eff Up. He's gone, the era is over. No more terrible signings and no more loyalty to a fault. Now, we aren't getting into this years first round unless its in the later part. Monroe or Smith will be gone for some decent players and we have enough money for a decent free agent...that's it.

Jennings
KCP
Singler
Moose/Smith (whoever is left)
Dre

with KCP/Singler possibly moved around for whoever we get for Smith or Monroe

DetroitSho · Post #510 » by **DetroitSho** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:43 am

Notanoob wrote:We can't trade Monroe for a pick in this year's draft.

Don't bother yourself. They'll NEVER get it.

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Bknight4three · Post #511 » by **Bknight4three** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:43 am

Not even if they select the player for us noob? I have no idea how the RFA trade restrictions work other than that we can't package him with other players and picks.

ElectricMayhem · Post #512 » by **ElectricMayhem** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:43 am

Moves like this one are the reason Dumars is gone. So let's just say we traded the 8th pick for SVG. That makes it sound better, right?

DETermination · Post #513 » by **DETermination** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:44 am

When does team usa decide who makes the team, if Andre makes it at least that will be something to look forward to until we start making some moves.

Bknight4three · Post #514 » by **Bknight4three** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:45 am

DetroitSho wrote:
Notanoob wrote:We can't trade Monroe for a pick in this year's draft.

Don't bother yourself. They'll NEVER get it.

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Idk if you are referring to me, but I haven't thrown around any trade ideas so you shouldn't be. I will definitely "get it" if it is explained to me once.

Post #515 » by **dVs33** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:47 am

I didn't need another reason to hate cleveland... :nonono:

f*** this

DetroitSho · Post #516 » by **DetroitSho** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:52 am

Bknight4three wrote:
DetroitSho wrote:
Notanoob wrote:We can't trade Monroe for a pick in this year's draft.

Don't bother yourself. They'll NEVER get it.

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Idk if you are referring to me, but I haven't thrown around any trade ideas so you shouldn't be. I will definitely "get it" if it is explained to me once.

You not having thrown around trade ideas and my use of "they" would precisely mean I'm not referring to you. That simple nugget has been reiterated repeatedly for months in several threads, mostly directed at the same few people who keep suggesting Monroe for X pick.

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whitehops · Post #517 » by **whitehops** » Wed May 21, 2014 1:58 am

so I ran the probability of the cavs' results the past four years in the lottery and got some results.

someone confirm/deny my results, it's been a while since I learned probability. this is the odds of 1st-not 1st-1st-1st happening for them given their lottery position.

Year: Chances (Odds)
2011: 227 (22.7%)
2012: 862 (86.2%)
2013: 156 (15.6%)
2014: 17 (1.7%)

so if you multiply the odds together there is a 0.05% chance of them getting the results they did.

think of it like this: the odds of getting 1st in 2011 was 22.7%. the odds of them NOT getting first in 2012 after getting first in 2011 was 86.2% of 22.7% (19.6%). the odds of getting the first in 2013 after the past two years was 15.6% of 19.6% (3.1%). the odds of getting first this year after the past three years was 1.7% of 3.1% (0.05%)

Q00 · Post #518 » by **Q00** » Wed May 21, 2014 2:01 am

ElectricMayhem wrote:Moves like this one are the reason Dumars is gone. So let's just say we traded the 8th pick for SVG. That makes it sound better, right?

That's my take too. We did get our Christmas in May. It just happened a week early.

While other fans were still upset about their crappy coaches from last year, we were celebrating the hiring of the 6th highest win % coach in history.

He's going to have more impact on this franchise than anyone at 8 would have, in my opinion. So I'll take that tradeoff any day.

I said a few weeks ago that I would've traded #8 for Thibodeau, and I think SVG is an even better coach than him. So I'm just happy we finally got a great coach. That was the most important thing this summer.

Bknight4three · Post #519 » by **Bknight4three** » Wed May 21, 2014 2:05 am

DetroitSho wrote:
Bknight4three wrote:
DetroitSho wrote:Don't bother yourself. They'll NEVER get it.

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Idk if you are referring to me, but I haven't thrown around any trade ideas so you shouldn't be. I will definitely "get it" if it is explained to me once.

You not having thrown around trade ideas and my use of "they" would precisely mean I'm not referring to you. That simple nugget has been reiterated repeatedly for months in several threads, mostly directed at the same few people who keep suggesting Monroe for X pick.

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Well it that case my bad. Can you give me a quick explanation for why we can't do that? (especially in the event that they pick the player and then trade him to us)

mercury · Post #520 » by **mercury** » Wed May 21, 2014 2:07 am

So now SVG will need to rely on trades and F.A.s... for the short term this will likely lead to a better record.
Without the pick we're saving over 2 mil for free agents.
IMO the best course is to dump some salary to build on next year's improved record (more attractive for F.A.s).
May also look into packaging next year's pick... With the real possibility of increasing the age limit the 2015 draft could be one of the worst for top level talent and depth.