2013-2014 College Basketball / '14 NBA Draft Thread

[Wilfried]

We have a very small sample size of a Hinkie draft (last year) but I noticed something that might project how we draft going forward. This could have be pointed out on here before and I didn't read it. If so, I apologize.

Michael Carter Williams was 6th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.74. Combine that with his 6'6 height advantage at PG, incredible max vert, and you have an alluring PG.

Nerlens Noel was 35th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.08. Very impressive given his position and height. Shows great instinct and mobility at the center position.

Arsalan Kazemi was 37th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.06. 2nd rounder with mediocre height for his position, but was a double double machine and had a great steal per game rate for his position.


The top three in this draft (Parker, Wiggins, Embiid) didn't display great stats as it relates to steals. Not saying that it takes them out of the running for the 3rd pick, but they would be the first Hinkie players to be drafted with a sub 2.0 spg average in their most recent basketball season.

I don't know Exum's stats last year. I do know he was just shy of 2.0 spg in the U19 games. That said, I feel like he might be the closest thing to what Hinkie is looking for: a blend of size, talent, speed and ability to take away the ball and start the transition offense.

So, at this moment, I'm predicting Exum to the Sixers when the third pick comes around.

The 10th pick is obviously harder to predict. Let's assume that anyone from 5-10 can drop to 10. Smart would be a prototypical choice for the Sixers if we didn't have MCW and didn't just draft Exum. He was third in the nation in steals per game with 2.77. He also had around 3 steals per game last year.

Randle is out (.5). Vonleh is out (.9). McDermott is out (.2). Saric is out (1.3). In fact, I can't really see anyone that fits this mold until someone like TJ Warren (1.73) or Kyle Anderson (1.76).

This past year had a lower steal rate overall (probably because of all the touch foul calls) and the bigs suffered. I could see us possibly trading out of 10 and moving down for more picks (or future first rounders) if a team is interested.

I could also be overreacting over three picks last year.

I think you are kind of missing the forrest for the trees. Hinkie wants to draft good basketball players. Determining who those are is a long process. Many good basketball players happen to have good steal rates.

Wasn't it just drafting the BPA at 11? How can we say it was analytics and looking at steals and ...
He had number 11 (!) and just took the best talent available in a weak draft.
It could have been Trey Burke, because the trade for Noel and Jrue was made before Utah's pick. If Utah (or Portland) took MCW, we took Burke (or McColumn) and we could throw away the 'facts' that he picked MCW because of steals.

And Noel is a very good defender (very mobile, quick) so he can make steals.
But I think Hinkie just took him because he was available (NO didn't want him, he fell into their lap but he doesn't fit with Davis so he was expendable) and wanted to go for the total rebuild.

We can see more after this draft about Hinkie's mindset.
At 3, he will take the player who is still available of Wiggins/Embiid/Parker.
At 10, that's more interesting to me.

[Negrodamus]

We have a very small sample size of a Hinkie draft (last year) but I noticed something that might project how we draft going forward. This could have be pointed out on here before and I didn't read it. If so, I apologize.

Michael Carter Williams was 6th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.74. Combine that with his 6'6 height advantage at PG, incredible max vert, and you have an alluring PG.

Nerlens Noel was 35th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.08. Very impressive given his position and height. Shows great instinct and mobility at the center position.

Arsalan Kazemi was 37th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.06. 2nd rounder with mediocre height for his position, but was a double double machine and had a great steal per game rate for his position.


The top three in this draft (Parker, Wiggins, Embiid) didn't display great stats as it relates to steals. Not saying that it takes them out of the running for the 3rd pick, but they would be the first Hinkie players to be drafted with a sub 2.0 spg average in their most recent basketball season.

I don't know Exum's stats last year. I do know he was just shy of 2.0 spg in the U19 games. That said, I feel like he might be the closest thing to what Hinkie is looking for: a blend of size, talent, speed and ability to take away the ball and start the transition offense.

So, at this moment, I'm predicting Exum to the Sixers when the third pick comes around.

The 10th pick is obviously harder to predict. Let's assume that anyone from 5-10 can drop to 10. Smart would be a prototypical choice for the Sixers if we didn't have MCW and didn't just draft Exum. He was third in the nation in steals per game with 2.77. He also had around 3 steals per game last year.

Randle is out (.5). Vonleh is out (.9). McDermott is out (.2). Saric is out (1.3). In fact, I can't really see anyone that fits this mold until someone like TJ Warren (1.73) or Kyle Anderson (1.76).

This past year had a lower steal rate overall (probably because of all the touch foul calls) and the bigs suffered. I could see us possibly trading out of 10 and moving down for more picks (or future first rounders) if a team is interested.

I could also be overreacting over three picks last year.

I think you are kind of missing the forrest for the trees. Hinkie wants to draft good basketball players. Determining who those are is a long process. Many good basketball players happen to have good steal rates.

I think people are getting confused with my post. I'm not suggesting that the players with the highest steal rates are the ones we should be targeting. If that were the case, the Duke Mondy from Oakland would be higher on our list (3.1 spg).

The ability to create turnovers, while being exemplary at other aspects of the game, was his thought process. I don't think steals were the only factor involved, but it is intriguing to connect the dots when the 3 players we drafted had 2+ spg.

[dbodner]

Houston also drafted Chandler Parsons, Royce White, Terrence Jones and Marcus Morris, none of whom had particularly great steal rates. I think Hinkie is more nuanced than we frequently give him credit for.

I think Hinkie is more individualized that you're giving him credit for. You're assuming that we he was on board for every one of those Morey selections.

No I'm not.

I'm pointing out that people are too strict in what they think analytically minded GM's are looking for, with Houston an example of both a draft history with an analytically minded staff as well as a place Hinkie had input in, while pointing out that a sample size of 3 is not enough to assume every selection will have a high steal rate.

At no point did I say that Hinkie was on board with every selection Houston made.

[Sixerscan]

We have a very small sample size of a Hinkie draft (last year) but I noticed something that might project how we draft going forward. This could have be pointed out on here before and I didn't read it. If so, I apologize.

Michael Carter Williams was 6th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.74. Combine that with his 6'6 height advantage at PG, incredible max vert, and you have an alluring PG.

Nerlens Noel was 35th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.08. Very impressive given his position and height. Shows great instinct and mobility at the center position.

Arsalan Kazemi was 37th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.06. 2nd rounder with mediocre height for his position, but was a double double machine and had a great steal per game rate for his position.


The top three in this draft (Parker, Wiggins, Embiid) didn't display great stats as it relates to steals. Not saying that it takes them out of the running for the 3rd pick, but they would be the first Hinkie players to be drafted with a sub 2.0 spg average in their most recent basketball season.

I don't know Exum's stats last year. I do know he was just shy of 2.0 spg in the U19 games. That said, I feel like he might be the closest thing to what Hinkie is looking for: a blend of size, talent, speed and ability to take away the ball and start the transition offense.

So, at this moment, I'm predicting Exum to the Sixers when the third pick comes around.

The 10th pick is obviously harder to predict. Let's assume that anyone from 5-10 can drop to 10. Smart would be a prototypical choice for the Sixers if we didn't have MCW and didn't just draft Exum. He was third in the nation in steals per game with 2.77. He also had around 3 steals per game last year.

Randle is out (.5). Vonleh is out (.9). McDermott is out (.2). Saric is out (1.3). In fact, I can't really see anyone that fits this mold until someone like TJ Warren (1.73) or Kyle Anderson (1.76).

This past year had a lower steal rate overall (probably because of all the touch foul calls) and the bigs suffered. I could see us possibly trading out of 10 and moving down for more picks (or future first rounders) if a team is interested.

I could also be overreacting over three picks last year.

I think you are kind of missing the forrest for the trees. Hinkie wants to draft good basketball players. Determining who those are is a long process. Many good basketball players happen to have good steal rates.

I think people are getting confused with my post. I'm not suggesting that the players with the highest steal rates are the ones we should be targeting. If that were the case, the Duke Mondy from Oakland would be higher on our list (3.1 spg).

The ability to create turnovers, while being exemplary at other aspects of the game, was his thought process. I don't think steals were the only factor involved, but it is intriguing to connect the dots when the 3 players we drafted had 2+ spg.

I definitely agree that it is worth noting.

That being said, it still seems to me that you are looking at it backwards. I don't think he has an outsized view of the importance of creating turnovers. It's as important as it is. He's not targeting people that get a lot of steals, he's targeting good basketball players. And many of the attributes many good basketball players have (length, athleticism, intelligence, coordination, anticipation) can lead to a guy racking up steals.

[Kobblehead]

Houston also drafted Chandler Parsons, Royce White, Terrence Jones and Marcus Morris, none of whom had particularly great steal rates. I think Hinkie is more nuanced than we frequently give him credit for.

I think Hinkie is more individualized that you're giving him credit for. You're assuming that we he was on board for every one of those Morey selections.

No I'm not.

I'm pointing out that people are too strict in what they think analytically minded GM's are looking for, with Houston an example of both a draft history with an analytically minded staff as well as a place Hinkie had input in, while pointing out that a sample size of 3 is not enough to assume every selection will have a high steal rate.

At no point did I say that Hinkie was on board with every selection Houston made.

Listing Houston's draft picks is completely inconsequential because we have no idea if those selections met Hinkie's approval or not. Whether intentional or not, the act of listing those picks is an inference that they did.

What we do know is that all three of Hinkie's draft day additions last summer had DIP%s of 6.7 and up. And a PG he decided wasn't apart of his future had a DIP% of 3.1 for his career.

[dbodner]

Listing Houston's draft picks is completely inconsequential because we have no idea if those selections met Hinkie's approval or not. Whether intentional or not, the act of listing those picks is an inference that they did.

It really doesn't, but okay. There are some arguments that are worth having, then there are arguments like this.

[Kobblehead]

Well then what was the point in listing Houston's selections?

I mean, I understand why you did it. You offered them as examples that went against Negro's theory.

But in actuality, it's poor evidence because the only thing provable is that Hinkie's boss valued those players enough to pick them.

[Iscull]

Keep in mind we did bring Royce White in for a small time. I know it was simply "kicking his tires", but Hinkie clearly liked his skillset.

[Dr Positivity]

We have a very small sample size of a Hinkie draft (last year) but I noticed something that might project how we draft going forward. This could have be pointed out on here before and I didn't read it. If so, I apologize.

Michael Carter Williams was 6th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.74. Combine that with his 6'6 height advantage at PG, incredible max vert, and you have an alluring PG.

Nerlens Noel was 35th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.08. Very impressive given his position and height. Shows great instinct and mobility at the center position.

Arsalan Kazemi was 37th in the nation in steals per game last year with 2.06. 2nd rounder with mediocre height for his position, but was a double double machine and had a great steal per game rate for his position.


The top three in this draft (Parker, Wiggins, Embiid) didn't display great stats as it relates to steals. Not saying that it takes them out of the running for the 3rd pick, but they would be the first Hinkie players to be drafted with a sub 2.0 spg average in their most recent basketball season.

I don't know Exum's stats last year. I do know he was just shy of 2.0 spg in the U19 games. That said, I feel like he might be the closest thing to what Hinkie is looking for: a blend of size, talent, speed and ability to take away the ball and start the transition offense.

So, at this moment, I'm predicting Exum to the Sixers when the third pick comes around.

The 10th pick is obviously harder to predict. Let's assume that anyone from 5-10 can drop to 10. Smart would be a prototypical choice for the Sixers if we didn't have MCW and didn't just draft Exum. He was third in the nation in steals per game with 2.77. He also had around 3 steals per game last year.

Randle is out (.5). Vonleh is out (.9). McDermott is out (.2). Saric is out (1.3). In fact, I can't really see anyone that fits this mold until someone like TJ Warren (1.73) or Kyle Anderson (1.76).

This past year had a lower steal rate overall (probably because of all the touch foul calls) and the bigs suffered. I could see us possibly trading out of 10 and moving down for more picks (or future first rounders) if a team is interested.

I could also be overreacting over three picks last year.

I doubt Hinkie looks at steals as the end all be all, like I doubt it would preclude us from drafting Parker or Gordon, but the fact that:

-Hinkie is an analytics guru
-NCAA steals rate is a strong indicator of NBA success as per analytics studies
-3/3 of Hinkie's draft picks had > 2.5 steals/40

is absolutely not a coincidence. It seems that people took the MCW and Nerlens picks to mean that Hinkie wants tall, athletic, toolsy types. But when you throw Kazemi into the mix, a 6'7" PF with very questionable tools, it suggests that what he's really looking for are skilled all-around players and that he just prefers them to be tall and athletic, because no ****.

I wrote an article about the same subject last week (stl/blk rates and Sixers) so I can quickly bring up some charts for you

Here is combined stl and blk per 40 minutes for 2013 lottery picks + Kazemi

Nerlens Noel – 8.1
Steven Adams – 4.6
Michael Carter-Williams – 3.7
Arsalan Kazemi - 3.7
Alex Len – 3.4
Otto Porter – 3.1
Cody Zeller – 3.1
Victor Oladipo – 3.0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – 2.8
Anthony Bennett – 2.7
Kelly Olynyk – 2.7
Trey Burke – 2.4
Ben McLemore – 2.0
C.J. McCollum – 1.7
Shabazz Muhammad – 1.1

Now here is the 2013 lottery players by combined Stl+Blk+Reb+Ast per 40

Nerlens Noel – 22.0
Arsalan Kazemi - 19.4
Michael Carter-Williams 17.5
Alex Len – 16.8
Steven Adams – 16.5
Kelly Olynyk – 16.2
Cody Zeller – 15.8
Anthony Bennett – 15.7
Otto Porter – 14.7
Trey Burke – 13.5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – 13.2
Victor Oladipo – 11.4
Ben McLemore – 10.9
C.J. McCollum – 9.6
Shabazz Muhammad – 9.0

Now here are 2014 NCAA lotto prospects by the same list, starting with Stl+Blk per 40. I also included Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson on this list because they are getting ranked high on analytics lists:

Joel Embiid – 6.0
Marcus Smart – 4.2
Jordan Adams – 3.7
Noah Vonleh – 3.4
Jabari Parker – 3.0
Kyle Anderson – 3.0
Gary Harris – 2.7
Andrew Wiggins – 2.6
Tyler Ennis – 2.6
Aaron Gordon – 2.4
Julius Randle – 1.6
Nik Stauskas – 0.9
Doug McDermott – 0.5

Stl+Blk+Reb+Ast per 40:

Joel Embiid – 22.3
Kyle Anderson – 21.3
Noah Vonleh – 17.9
Marcus Smart – 17.2
Julius Randle – 16.9
Jabari Parker – 15.9
Aaron Gordon – 15.1
Jordan Adams – 13.9
Tyler Ennis – 12.6
Andrew Wiggins – 11.6
Gary Harris – 11.0
Doug McDermott – 10.7
Nik Stauskas – 7.9

To me it is likely all the Sixers love Wiggins leaks that have come out is trolling to get Embiid to fall

[Negrodamus]

That's a pretty cool/interesting list. Thanks for sharing.

[Kobblehead]

Keep in mind we did bring Royce White in for a small time. I know it was simply "kicking his tires", but Hinkie clearly liked his skillset.

Not necessarily. You have to remember that the deal was actually for Furkan Aldemir. Royce White was said to be a deal-breaker inclusion from Morey's end of the negotiation.

[MRxBLACK]

I wonder where Exum, Saric, and Nurkic would fall on that list.

[Negrodamus]

I don't know Exum's per 40 stats.

Saric came out to 18.1 in what I would assume is the regular season.

Nurkic was a even 20. Then again, it's hard to project him since he plays 16 minutes a game. He averages 28.2 ppg per 40 which seems inflated.

[MRxBLACK]

I don't know Exum's per 40 stats.

Saric came out to 18.1 in what I would assume is the regular season.

Nurkic was a even 20. Then again, it's hard to project him since he plays 16 minutes a game. He averages 28.2 ppg per 40 which seems inflated.

Small sample size but using Exum's stats from 9 FIBA games in 2013 and converting them to per 40 comes out to 12.5.

[(3.8 apg+ 3.6 rpg+1.7 spg+ 0.1 bpg) / 29.55 MPG] x 40 = 12.5

[Slacktard]

Exum's also a full year younger than any of the college draftees who are Freshman. When you see what MCW's stats were that's what he did when he was 21 years old in college.

Exum will be 4 calendar years younger than MCW was when drafted. He's a calendar year younger than pretty much anyone who will be drafted in the first round unless that DraftExpress mock is right and fellow 1995er Kristaps Porzingis sneaks into the back of the 1st round.

Exum may even continue to grow and add an inch to his height/wingspan.

[76ciology]

Kyle Anderson is looking like the likely candidate for the 10th, if that's the case.

[76ciology]

With Hinkie's rationale in drafting guys..

I think Hinkie's just got a value system on how to assess a player's true value. Whether it's looking past a guy's shooting %s because he has good shooting mechanics or looking past a once career ending injury but is now more like a regular injury due because of advance medical technology. I don't believe it's just numbers. It's a mixture of both.

Is Embiid's back problem that serious? Can jabari be a good defensive player because of his numbers and physical tools? Can Wiggins improve his offense? Maybe he would excel playing pick and roll or off ball where his lack of skill to create his shots can be masked. How good really is Exum? Can his game translate in the next level? These questions will help hinkie assess his big board.

[CoreyGallagher]

...

That's such a good post, totally changes my perspective lol. I still would prefer Wiggins, but I'm all doubtful now.

[42uptop]

I wrote an article about the same subject last week (stl/blk rates and Sixers) so I can quickly bring up some charts for you

Here is combined stl and blk per 40 minutes for 2013 lottery picks + Kazemi

Nerlens Noel – 8.1
Steven Adams – 4.6
Michael Carter-Williams – 3.7
Arsalan Kazemi - 3.7
Alex Len – 3.4
Otto Porter – 3.1
Cody Zeller – 3.1
Victor Oladipo – 3.0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – 2.8
Anthony Bennett – 2.7
Kelly Olynyk – 2.7
Trey Burke – 2.4
Ben McLemore – 2.0
C.J. McCollum – 1.7
Shabazz Muhammad – 1.1

Now here is the 2013 lottery players by combined Stl+Blk+Reb+Ast per 40

Nerlens Noel – 22.0
Arsalan Kazemi - 19.4
Michael Carter-Williams 17.5
Alex Len – 16.8
Steven Adams – 16.5
Kelly Olynyk – 16.2
Cody Zeller – 15.8
Anthony Bennett – 15.7
Otto Porter – 14.7
Trey Burke – 13.5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – 13.2
Victor Oladipo – 11.4
Ben McLemore – 10.9
C.J. McCollum – 9.6
Shabazz Muhammad – 9.0

Now here are 2014 NCAA lotto prospects by the same list, starting with Stl+Blk per 40. I also included Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson on this list because they are getting ranked high on analytics lists:

Joel Embiid – 6.0
Marcus Smart – 4.2
Jordan Adams – 3.7
Noah Vonleh – 3.4
Jabari Parker – 3.0
Kyle Anderson – 3.0
Gary Harris – 2.7
Andrew Wiggins – 2.6
Tyler Ennis – 2.6
Aaron Gordon – 2.4
Julius Randle – 1.6
Nik Stauskas – 0.9
Doug McDermott – 0.5

Stl+Blk+Reb+Ast per 40:

Joel Embiid – 22.3
Kyle Anderson – 21.3
Noah Vonleh – 17.9
Marcus Smart – 17.2
Julius Randle – 16.9
Jabari Parker – 15.9
Aaron Gordon – 15.1
Jordan Adams – 13.9
Tyler Ennis – 12.6
Andrew Wiggins – 11.6
Gary Harris – 11.0
Doug McDermott – 10.7
Nik Stauskas – 7.9

To me it is likely all the Sixers love Wiggins leaks that have come out is trolling to get Embiid to fall

Great compilation of stats. You and I have also reached the same conclusion. I don't buy the "Wiggins or bust" rumor or the "trade MCW for Exum" rumor. Hinkie didn't leak anything last year and it worked. I imagine we will find on draft night if your statistical observations are a sign of a trend.

[Agnostifarian]

I wrote an article about the same subject last week (stl/blk rates and Sixers) so I can quickly bring up some charts for you

Here is combined stl and blk per 40 minutes for 2013 lottery picks + Kazemi

Nerlens Noel – 8.1
Steven Adams – 4.6
Michael Carter-Williams – 3.7
Arsalan Kazemi - 3.7
Alex Len – 3.4
Otto Porter – 3.1
Cody Zeller – 3.1
Victor Oladipo – 3.0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – 2.8
Anthony Bennett – 2.7
Kelly Olynyk – 2.7
Trey Burke – 2.4
Ben McLemore – 2.0
C.J. McCollum – 1.7
Shabazz Muhammad – 1.1

Now here is the 2013 lottery players by combined Stl+Blk+Reb+Ast per 40

Nerlens Noel – 22.0
Arsalan Kazemi - 19.4
Michael Carter-Williams 17.5
Alex Len – 16.8
Steven Adams – 16.5
Kelly Olynyk – 16.2
Cody Zeller – 15.8
Anthony Bennett – 15.7
Otto Porter – 14.7
Trey Burke – 13.5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – 13.2
Victor Oladipo – 11.4
Ben McLemore – 10.9
C.J. McCollum – 9.6
Shabazz Muhammad – 9.0

Now here are 2014 NCAA lotto prospects by the same list, starting with Stl+Blk per 40. I also included Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson on this list because they are getting ranked high on analytics lists:

Joel Embiid – 6.0
Marcus Smart – 4.2
Jordan Adams – 3.7
Noah Vonleh – 3.4
Jabari Parker – 3.0
Kyle Anderson – 3.0
Gary Harris – 2.7
Andrew Wiggins – 2.6
Tyler Ennis – 2.6
Aaron Gordon – 2.4
Julius Randle – 1.6
Nik Stauskas – 0.9
Doug McDermott – 0.5

Stl+Blk+Reb+Ast per 40:

Joel Embiid – 22.3
Kyle Anderson – 21.3
Noah Vonleh – 17.9
Marcus Smart – 17.2
Julius Randle – 16.9
Jabari Parker – 15.9
Aaron Gordon – 15.1
Jordan Adams – 13.9
Tyler Ennis – 12.6
Andrew Wiggins – 11.6
Gary Harris – 11.0
Doug McDermott – 10.7
Nik Stauskas – 7.9

To me it is likely all the Sixers love Wiggins leaks that have come out is trolling to get Embiid to fall

Great compilation of stats. You and I have also reached the same conclusion. I don't buy the "Wiggins or bust" rumor or the "trade MCW for Exum" rumor. Hinkie didn't leak anything last year and it worked. I imagine we will find on draft night if your statistical observations are a sign of a trend.

I nominate 42uptop MVP until further notice. How many people will lose their minds when Hinkie trades up for Kyle Anderson?