Official Trade Thread - Part XXVII

[fugop]

This is the only reason to prefer Patterson to Booker:

http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.ht ... rID=202335
http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.ht ... rID=202344

Booker is a modestly more efficient scorer, but Patterson is significantly more versatile. Patterson has a mid-range shot and a developing three point shot. His ability to space the floor may increase team efficiency more than enough to offset his relative inefficiency. Toronto's offense was significantly better with Patterson on the floor than Amir Johnson, even though Johnson is individually more efficient.

http://www.82games.com/1314/1314TOR1.HTM

[Ruzious]

The only thing Monroe I think has working in his favor (If you want to think about him positively) is that he hasn't played with incompetent teammates and a real PG. Monroe was unfortunately drafted into a terrible situation.

Age is also a huge factor. Gortat is almost certainly going to be in decline mode towards the end of his contract, while Monroe is still going to be in his prime. In fact, he's probably going to get better. As has been mentioned, his skills and abilities are very similar to Al Jefferson's - who has gradually improved himself in pretty much every facet of the game over the years and was the main reason for Charlotte going from a joke of a team to a playoff team last season.

[Dark Faze]

What patterns of improvement indicate that Monroe projects to get better entering his sixth year?

How has Monroe shown that he is the better player?

Other posters have given strong factual support for their assertions regarding Gortat. You have yet to give more than decisively worded opinions to defend your view about Monroe...

Advanced stats have shown that Monroe is indeed better than Gortat by a decent amount when he plays the center position. His development has been slown considerably since the arrival of Drummond.

Don't forget about Al Jefferson as a guy who really showed out once he arrived to a different situation last year. I could see Monroe taking the same step for a different club.

Proper board etiquette dictates that phrases like "advanced stats have shown" should be accompanied by some citation to actual advanced stats, maybe with some links and/or analysis, to differentiate such claims from the likes of "everybody knows," "it stands to reason," and "I'll bet you dollars to donuts." Unless these are double-secret advanced stats, in which case you should not cite to them. Because they're secret.

I posted this like a week ago:

Monroe is better than Gortat. The reason its not so obvious over these last couple of years is because since the arrival of Drummond he’s been forced to play out of position. The worst thing you can do in todays NBA is play a C at PF. Basketball just isn’t played that way anymore. It’s about quick rotations and spacing the floor now. Check out the stats here:

http://www.82games.com/1314/13DET14.HTM#bypos
http://www.82games.com/1314/13WAS17.HTM#bypos

Monroes PER at PF: 18.3 (good)
Monroes PER at C: 20.6 (all-star)

to look at defense:

Monroes OPPONENT per when he plays PF: 21.2 (ughhh)
Monroes OPPONENT per when he plays C: 17.2 ( okay)

Lets look at Gortat

Gortats PER at C: 18.6 (good)
Gortats OPPONENT per when he plays C: 17 ( okay)

The stats and eye test confirm what we already know. Monroe is an all-star caliber C and a slightly worse player than Gortat at PF. Speaking specifically about the center position Gortat is a hair better defensively, and I think we all knew that. It’s also important to note that Gortat likely got the benefit of the “team” associated aspect of PER. You never want to go completely off of PER because of how much your team can impact it, but even despite this Monroes advanced stats at the center position beat out Gortats fairly significantly.

PER calculations may be a bit off, but the difference is sitll the same. And that's not even taking into account the fact that Monroes been playing with bum PG's his entire career.

[montestewart]

Advanced stats have shown that Monroe is indeed better than Gortat by a decent amount when he plays the center position. His development has been slown considerably since the arrival of Drummond.

Don't forget about Al Jefferson as a guy who really showed out once he arrived to a different situation last year. I could see Monroe taking the same step for a different club.

Proper board etiquette dictates that phrases like "advanced stats have shown" should be accompanied by some citation to actual advanced stats, maybe with some links and/or analysis, to differentiate such claims from the likes of "everybody knows," "it stands to reason," and "I'll bet you dollars to donuts." Unless these are double-secret advanced stats, in which case you should not cite to them. Because they're secret.

I posted this like a week ago:

Monroe is better than Gortat. The reason its not so obvious over these last couple of years is because since the arrival of Drummond he’s been forced to play out of position. The worst thing you can do in todays NBA is play a C at PF. Basketball just isn’t played that way anymore. It’s about quick rotations and spacing the floor now. Check out the stats here:

http://www.82games.com/1314/13DET14.HTM#bypos
http://www.82games.com/1314/13WAS17.HTM#bypos

Monroes PER at PF: 18.3 (good)
Monroes PER at C: 20.6 (all-star)

to look at defense:

Monroes OPPONENT per when he plays PF: 21.2 (ughhh)
Monroes OPPONENT per when he plays C: 17.2 ( okay)

Lets look at Gortat

Gortats PER at C: 18.6 (good)
Gortats OPPONENT per when he plays C: 17 ( okay)

The stats and eye test confirm what we already know. Monroe is an all-star caliber C and a slightly worse player than Gortat at PF. Speaking specifically about the center position Gortat is a hair better defensively, and I think we all knew that. It’s also important to note that Gortat likely got the benefit of the “team” associated aspect of PER. You never want to go completely off of PER because of how much your team can impact it, but even despite this Monroes advanced stats at the center position beat out Gortats fairly significantly.

PER calculations may be a bit off, but the difference is sitll the same. And that's not even taking into account the fact that Monroes been playing with bum PG's his entire career.

Sorry, I hadn't realized that post was yours. In fact, I had forgotten that post. However, prior to my response, I searched for some advanced statistics that might support your point. The stats you cited were the only ones I could find that might be used in such an argument. Since I still posted, obviously I found that support wanting.

If you want to make a PER-based argument, I can greatly simplify it for you. "Monroe has had a better PER than Gortat every year since he has entered the league, therefore, he is clearly better." Still, when stats (scoring efficiency, finishing at the rim, shot blocking, defensive rebounding, not to mention all of WS/48, WS/40, WP48) show Gortat as the better player, and they do that over the last four years (since Monroe entered the league) doesn't that start to make you wonder about the full utility of PER as the sole measure of a player's worth?

As for the eye test, my eye test doesn't tell me that Monroe is the better player. Otherwise, neither jumps out as clearly a better or worse player to me. I didn't realize that Gortat was so much better a finisher until I looked at the stats. Monroe may not be in an ideal situation, but other than his injury hampered 2012-13, Gortat has been pretty consistent as a bench player or a starter, on three teams, with a variety of point guards.

But the discussion is not just about which player is better. Would you really want to give up any significant assets to acquire Monroe, who would likely cost more in salary to retain, rather than merely resigning Gortat, who the team already gave up a 1st to acquire? Are the age, PG, and PER factors really that persuasive to you? As you can see, they aren't to me, que sera, sera.

[Dark Faze]

But the discussion is not just about which player is better. Would you really want to give up any significant assets to acquire Monroe, who would likely cost more in salary to retain, rather than merely resigning Gortat, who the team already gave up a 1st to acquire? Are the age, PG, and PER factors really that persuasive to you? As you can see, they aren't to me, que sera, sera.

Well I'm not giving up any significant assets as a trade scenario is unlikely. Detroit will match or they won't, pretty simple.

For me personally the cost doesn't bother me because it would force us into relying on Porter pretty quickly as a starter which is what I want. This isn't rocket science--you tank, make strong picks, have them form your core and then add supporting pieces around them. We were following this plan until Ariza and Okafor/Gortat in combination with a historically bad eastern conference fooled a front office staff that already loves overrating their own players into thinking we're set for the near future.

I like what we did last year but I have no interest in continuity with the Ariza, Nene, Gortat core. All older players that will be staring down a decline soon.

Wall
Beal
Porter
Nene
Monroe

The above group aside from Nene consists of a young core with upside with none of them having reached their primes yet. Seeing them develop excites me because I know they all have many years in front of them. I loved seeing the Ariza/Gortat combo this year but it all just seems like a waste of time to me. Like patches and not truly building. The above group is a truly rebuilt, long lasting group. There's hope in that.

Here's more info from the Pelicans fansite on Monroe:

http://www.thebirdwrites.com/2014/6/20/ ... ow-but-why

^ It really has everything you need to know about him outside of his TS% numbers while playing exclusively at C. IIRC it was something in the 57% range TS wise when playing center. He gets to the line a staggering amount as a C.

I don't think people understand how impressive it is to be a 15 and 9 player playing out of position next to Andre Drummond. Drummond averaged 13 boards a game--13! And playing out of position Monroe still gathered up 9.3 RPG. To put this into perspective Gortat played next to one of the worst rebounding PF's in Nene and only gathered 9.5 RPG at his natural position.

Monroe posted a better PER than Gortat while PLAYING OUT OF POSITION AGAINST ONE OF THE BEST REBOUNDING CENTERS IN THE GAME AND AN ABSOLUTE LANE CLOGGER.

We're going to be absolutely hating ourselves if he goes to a team where he gets to man the C and he puts up some 22 and 11 on high efficiency.

[Ruzious]

I agree with Dark's analysis. And all things being equal, I'd rather have Monroe over Gortat even if it costs 2 to 3 million a year more. The problem is keeping Ariza. I think the team needs to, because taking a step back now is something they can't do because they've painted themselves into a PR corner - and I've given up on Webster being a useful rotation player. And of course, clearing the room to sign Monroe would likely mean we give up rights to both Gortat and Ariza.

[montestewart]

But the discussion is not just about which player is better. Would you really want to give up any significant assets to acquire Monroe, who would likely cost more in salary to retain, rather than merely resigning Gortat, who the team already gave up a 1st to acquire? Are the age, PG, and PER factors really that persuasive to you? As you can see, they aren't to me, que sera, sera.

Well I'm not giving up any significant assets as a trade scenario is unlikely. Detroit will match or they won't, pretty simple.

For me personally the cost doesn't bother me because it would force us into relying on Porter pretty quickly as a starter which is what I want. This isn't rocket science--you tank, make strong picks, have them form your core and then add supporting pieces around them. We were following this plan until Ariza and Okafor/Gortat in combination with a historically bad eastern conference fooled a front office staff that already loves overrating their own players into thinking we're set for the near future.

I like what we did last year but I have no interest in continuity with the Ariza, Nene, Gortat core. All older players that will be staring down a decline soon.

Wall
Beal
Porter
Nene
Monroe

The above group aside from Nene consists of a young core with upside with none of them having reached their primes yet. Seeing them develop excites me because I know they all have many years in front of them. I loved seeing the Ariza/Gortat combo this year but it all just seems like a waste of time to me. Like patches and not truly building. The above group is a truly rebuilt, long lasting group. There's hope in that.

Here's more info from the Pelicans fansite on Monroe:

http://www.thebirdwrites.com/2014/6/20/ ... ow-but-why

^ It really has everything you need to know about him outside of his TS% numbers while playing exclusively at C. IIRC it was something in the 57% range TS wise when playing center. He gets to the line a staggering amount as a C.

I don't think people understand how impressive it is to be a 15 and 9 player playing out of position next to Andre Drummond. Drummond averaged 13 boards a game--13! And playing out of position Monroe still gathered up 9.3 RPG. To put this into perspective Gortat played next to one of the worst rebounding PF's in Nene and only gathered 9.5 RPG at his natural position.

Monroe posted a better PER than Gortat while PLAYING OUT OF POSITION AGAINST ONE OF THE BEST REBOUNDING CENTERS IN THE GAME AND AN ABSOLUTE LANE CLOGGER.

We're going to be absolutely hating ourselves if he goes to a team where he gets to man the C and he puts up some 22 and 11 on high efficiency.

I'm not sold on the Gortat-Monroe distinctions, But I agree that the path the Wizards are following probably grabbed for the gold before they had enough reliable long-term assets. Having jumped the gun, they may have great difficulty in finding a way to get good enough players to move to the next level, or even maintain this level.

[Dark Faze]

Some of my interest in Monroe is based off the fact that I just know we're going to overpay Gortat. I'd be shocked if he didn't get 11.5 a year minimum and am expecting something around 4 years 48. Under that scenario I might as well pay an additional 2.5 a year for a guy like Monroe based on youth and upside.

[nate33]

Ersan is the most likely Buck to be dealt

http://journaltimes.com/sports/bucks/bu ... f887a.html

From the article:

Still another Bucks player who could be wearing a new uniform next season is beleaguered center Larry Sanders, who has been saddled by a spate of off-court issues.

Sanders will be entering the first of a fully-guaranteed four-year, $44 million contract next season, making him virtually untradeable.

However, some team may be enticed to take on Sanders’ issues and hefty contract if perhaps Ilyasova, Henson or Knight was part of a trade package

Hmmm. What about some kind of S&T where we give them Webster and Gortat for Sanders and Ilyasova? We can resign Ariza and run with the following roster:

PG Wall/Miller
SG Beal/Rice
SF Ariza/Porter
PF Ilyasova/Gooden
C Sanders/Nene

It would wreck any plans for cap room in 2015, but we'd be set up to be players in 2016 when Durant and Horford are free agents. Ilyasova, Booker and Nene will come off the books in 2016. We'd have a roster or Wall, Beal, Ariza, Porter and Sanders plus max cap room. (Maybe resign Booker to a 2-year deal while were at it. If we're giving up on 2015 cap room, we may as well retain a pretty solid player in Booker.)

The bottom line here is that Sanders and Ilyasova are much younger than Gortat. Sanders is a rim-protector who can anchor a defense. Ilyasova is a pure stretch four who would complement Wall well. We'd miss Gortat as a pick-and-roll threat but I like the chemistry improvement otherwise.

[verbal8]

It would be interesting to see what an Ersan/Sanders combo could do surrounded by better perimeter players.

Ersan is the most likely Buck to be dealt

http://journaltimes.com/sports/bucks/bu ... f887a.html

From the article:

Still another Bucks player who could be wearing a new uniform next season is beleaguered center Larry Sanders, who has been saddled by a spate of off-court issues.

Sanders will be entering the first of a fully-guaranteed four-year, $44 million contract next season, making him virtually untradeable.

However, some team may be enticed to take on Sanders’ issues and hefty contract if perhaps Ilyasova, Henson or Knight was part of a trade package

Hmmm. What about some kind of S&T where we give them Webster and Gortat for Sanders and Ilyasova? We can resign Ariza and run with the following roster:

PG Wall/Miller
SG Beal/Rice
SF Ariza/Porter
PF Ilyasova/Gooden
C Sanders/Nene

It would wreck any plans for cap room in 2015, but we'd be set up to be players in 2016 when Durant and Horford are free agents. Ilyasova, Booker and Nene will come off the books in 2016. We'd have a roster or Wall, Beal, Ariza, Porter and Sanders plus max cap room. (Maybe resign Booker to a 2-year deal while were at it. If we're giving up on 2015 cap room, we may as well retain a pretty solid player in Booker.)

The bottom line here is that Sanders and Ilyasova are much younger than Gortat. Sanders is a rim-protector who can anchor a defense. Ilyasova is a pure stretch four who would complement Wall well. We'd miss Gortat as a pick-and-roll threat but I like the chemistry improvement otherwise.

[Dark Faze]

Ersan is the most likely Buck to be dealt

The bottom line here is that Sanders and Ilyasova are much younger than Gortat. Sanders is a rim-protector who can anchor a defense. Ilyasova is a pure stretch four who would complement Wall well. We'd miss Gortat as a pick-and-roll threat but I like the chemistry improvement otherwise.

I'd consider it but there are too many issues with Sanders outside of off the court issues. Just being that woeful as a scorer could hurt us a lot and Ersans consistency has become a serious question at this point.

I'd rather let Ariza walk, extend Gortat and give a guy like Channing Frye the MLE.

Wall
Beal
Porter
Frye
Gortat

*shrugs*

Frye had the second best on and off court differentials behind Dragic for the Suns. He'd be a great addition.

[nate33]

Frye is 31 years old. I don't like the idea of signing him long term, especially for what he is going to cost.

You have to realize that once you start talking about throwing around MLE contracts, you pretty much eliminate any chance of us having meaningful cap room in the foreseeable future. The moment that contract is signed, you have locked in our current lineup for the next 4 years or so, which means you are condemning us to try and rebuild our frontcourt in 2017 or 2018 while Wall and Beal are both on max or near-max contracts.

[Rafael122]

Bucks fans seem to think they can get a mid-round pick (i.e. Phoenix) for Ersan. I proposed Webster and Rice foe Ersan and one of them balked.

[fishercob]

Frye is 31 years old. I don't like the idea of signing him long term, especially for what he is going to cost.

You have to realize that once you start talking about throwing around MLE contracts, you pretty much eliminate any chance of us having meaningful cap room in the foreseeable future. The moment that contract is signed, you have locked in our current lineup for the next 4 years or so, which means you are condemning us to try and rebuild our frontcourt in 2017 or 2018 while Wall and Beal are both on max or near-max contracts.

My guess it that he stays in Phoenix. I recall reading at one point that he is very tied in there and loves the organization (went to Arizona too). If he does leave, he'd make great sense for teams in the market for a stretch big who do not want to devote the necessary resources to getting Love or Melo -- like OKC, Golden State, Houston.

[Dark Faze]

Frye is 31 years old. I don't like the idea of signing him long term, especially for what he is going to cost.

You have to realize that once you start talking about throwing around MLE contracts, you pretty much eliminate any chance of us having meaningful cap room in the foreseeable future. The moment that contract is signed, you have locked in our current lineup for the next 4 years or so, which means you are condemning us to try and rebuild our frontcourt in 2017 or 2018 while Wall and Beal are both on max or near-max contracts.

there's way too much unknown about our salary future to make that conclusion at this point--you could move Webster in a cost saving move, you don't know who we have coming back out of Ariza/Gortat or the cost their replacements could be, you have Nene coming off the books...

yea, it's not a signing I'd feel great about from a long term standpoint, but at least I'd know what I'm getting in regards to production--there's a lot more value there then what Webster is bringing to the table.

And it's becoming obvious that we need to space the floor for John in order for him to have any shot at posting decent numbers against post season defenses.

[Dark Faze]

The sweet spot for Marcin Gortat's new contract would seem to fall somewhere between Minnesota's Nikola Pekovic (making $12 million per year on his new deal, signed last summer) and Tyson Chandler (a little less than $14 million per year).

Via David Aldridge


pretty much what I expected

when that's your alternative a Monroe max seems like a no brainer

[Rafael122]

The sweet spot for Marcin Gortat's new contract would seem to fall somewhere between Minnesota's Nikola Pekovic (making $12 million per year on his new deal, signed last summer) and Tyson Chandler (a little less than $14 million per year).

Via David Aldridge


pretty much what I expected

when that's your alternative a Monroe max seems like a no brainer

Why not go after Monroe then? Are we saying that Gortat was able to almost double his salary after 1 season?

[Dark Faze]

The sweet spot for Marcin Gortat's new contract would seem to fall somewhere between Minnesota's Nikola Pekovic (making $12 million per year on his new deal, signed last summer) and Tyson Chandler (a little less than $14 million per year).

Via David Aldridge


pretty much what I expected

when that's your alternative a Monroe max seems like a no brainer

Why not go after Monroe then? Are we saying that Gortat was able to almost double his salary after 1 season?

I think the inflation comes from Dallas being willing to overpay specifically for the center position.

[miller31time]

The sweet spot for Marcin Gortat's new contract would seem to fall somewhere between Minnesota's Nikola Pekovic (making $12 million per year on his new deal, signed last summer) and Tyson Chandler (a little less than $14 million per year).

Via David Aldridge


pretty much what I expected

when that's your alternative a Monroe max seems like a no brainer

Why not go after Monroe then? Are we saying that Gortat was able to almost double his salary after 1 season?

At what point does reason and logic take place here? We're really considering giving Marcin Freaking Gortat a near-max deal? Like you said, Raf, if we're going to do that, we might as well sign Monroe.

[Dark Faze]

everytime Dallas cheaps out they get hit in a big way--letting Nash walk, letting Chandler walk...

There's no way Cuban doesn't unload his wallet now that Dirk is talking about taking a decent sized paycut