RealGM Top 100 List #8

[ardee]

And yes, you can argue Magic won 3 later on over Bird. But by that time Bird was fighting through serious back injuries. Or you could say Magic simply peaked later on in his career and so that shouldn't be held against him.

He won those against Bird and MICHAEL JORDAN, the guy who got voted in a long time ago.

Which is why it's ridiculous that Magic has fallen this low when Magic and Michael spent the entirety of the late 80s and early 90s exchanging MVPs.

Letting him fall even lower would be a travesty.

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[Texas Chuck]

Magic Johnson wasn't in his prime in the mid 80s..? Get out of here dude.

Larry Bird won 3 mvps over Magic Johnson, and yes Magic was in his prime.

Do you deny Magic got a LOT better in 1987? 1987-1991 was his real prime.

Just because 1984-1986 were good enough to be prime for 99.5% of the players in history doesn't mean they weren't a notch below 1987-91, when he became a perfect offensive player.

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this is exactly why I hate the heavy emphasis on prime/peak labels. Magic was a great player prior to 1987. Just because he wasnt his very best doesnt mean we should in any way minimize those years. If those seasons are truly top 99.5% seasons then should it matter what we call them?

[ardee]

Magic Johnson wasn't in his prime in the mid 80s..? Get out of here dude.

Larry Bird won 3 mvps over Magic Johnson, and yes Magic was in his prime.

Do you deny Magic got a LOT better in 1987? 1987-1991 was his real prime.

Just because 1984-1986 were good enough to be prime for 99.5% of the players in history doesn't mean they weren't a notch below 1987-91, when he became a perfect offensive player.

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this is exactly why I hate the heavy emphasis on prime/peak labels. Magic was a great player prior to 1987. Just because he wasnt his very best doesnt mean we should in any way minimize those years. If those seasons are truly top 99.5% seasons then should it matter what we call them?

You're missing my point here Chuck.

People are using Bird's MVPs over Magic against Magic: my point is that it's not a fair point because Magic won HIS MVPs over a player who was better than Bird in every way.

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[Basketballefan]

I have to agree, its criminal that Magic didn't crack even the top 7.

Outside of this site he'd be a lock for top 5.

[PCProductions]

My vote for #8 all time: Kevin Garnett

I've resisted it for long enough, but after reading drza's write up on the comparison with Duncan/Hakeem/Robinson, I'm on team Garnett now.

I'm not even going to get into the RAPM stuff, because that's only the tip of the iceberg with him. Something that really impressed me in his career was simply how well the Celtics worked out from Day 1. 29-3 to start the season with three dudes who were "The Man" on their previous teams to mesh that well and that quickly? This wasn't a 2011 Heat where the team was in a state of confusion, it just worked well and right away. If that isn't confirmation that Garnett's game was hyper-portable, then I don't know what is.

They were also not only the league's best defense, but an all time great one. This was in year 1. Am I the only one amazed by that? And it's no question to me that Garnett is why. But we already know about Garnett's defense. His offense just slides right in, and can work as a primary or secondary hub. That outside shot was a killer and he could play quarterback with a competent team--something he sadly missed out on for most of his prime.

He also very obviously should have been the Finals MVP. I dunno if that would've helped some KG naysayers or not, but that seems obvious to me. And in fact he should've been the regular season MVP, but that's not as obvious as the former what with the missed games and all.

He was never the same after that injury in '09, but at least we got 2008. That year alone seals it for me. I know I'm joining a small minority here, and my statements aren't saying anything that people don't already know, but it's what convinced me initially and now I don't doubt his standing with other greats at his position.

[drza]

Spoiler:

Magic vs Larry

Whether I vote for eith of them in this thread or not, I'd be remiss not to give at least a small take on one of the greatest rivalries in sports history. I see those arguing that Bird got off to the faster start, and that he was relied upon more heavily than Magic to start their careers. And I can respect that. But I don't think that tells ultimately who was better.

I think that they had a lot in common. Both had offensive genius. Both had unique, un replicable skill sets. I agree with those that say that Bird's skill set might be even more effective today than it was in his time due to the emphasis on the 3 point shot. It's hard to envision Bird using modern players...perhaps a funky combo of LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki...LeBrons height, Dirk's build and athletic ability, LeBrons passing ability, Dirk's shot. I don't think he could play point forward, but he could definitely play a version of the point power forward role where he could receive the first pass and be the primary decision maker. And he'd be deadly off the ball, forcing defenses to adjust to the threat of his shot whether he had the ball or not. I see him as more of a SF (where he'd be a great rebounder), but he would also be a great 4, especially in small ball lineups. Bird was a beast in his time and would have still been massive impact if transported to this time period.

But one area in which Magic separates himself from Bird is that he is arguably the biggest non-center physical positional mismatch in ZnBA history. This was true in the 80s, and it would be true now. On offense, he was simply taller and bigger than anyone who could check a perimeter ball handler. While I could imagine putting LeBron on Garnett on Magic, this would hurt their team defenses because that would force a guard to defend a front court player. Magic was one of the most efficient scorers in NBA history, which is crazy for a point guard. But more than that, he was also one of the most efficient players ever at creating shots for teammates. Magic would see Bird's spacing and creation impact, and raise it with his own offensive engine effect (most analogous, IMO, to Steve Nash). And Magics rebounding was positionally GOAT level with the real ability to impact what lineups could be built around him.

Ultimately, I think that Magic peaked a bit higher and ened up as the better of the two. Slightly

.

Counter-point: Because Magic was also much bigger than a typical PG...he was also a lot slower, and he usually couldn't check opposing PGs either, or he at least had a lot of trouble doing so. Which is why he usually played with an undersized SG (Byron Scott) that defended the opposing PG. As such, the defense's problem is solved in that case...put one of your wings on Magic, the other wing on Worthy, and you can use your PG on the undersized Scott, and that way, you're not giving up any real size mismatch anywhere. Of course, at 6'9", Magic was still usually bigger than a typical SG or even SF, but the size mismatch isn't anything outrageous...he usually torched his man anyway, but I don't think the offensive mismatch of Magic at PG is as great as you're saying, because he's in a mismatch on defense as well in that case.

Fair point. But a few counter-counters:

*I don't know that a SG is really less of a mismatch against Magic than a PG. Magic was 6-9 and built like a power forward, so he was going to be able to use his body to shield himself as he went to the hole against even good-sized SGs. So I don't know that the shooting guard correction really changes my point that much...even guarded by 2s, Magic would still be arguably the biggest physical positional mismatch in history outside of the center position.

*Like Bird with his long-range shooting, I wonder if Magic might not be more effective now than he was in his day. The rise in spacing due to the presence of so many 3-point shooters gives Magic more room to work and potentially raises the value of a significant portion of his assists.

*Plus, the trends of 3-point shooting and increased perimeter offense in the newer NBA has fueled a trend towards small-ball. Magic becomes even more deadly in this instance, because he beomes closer to the largest player on the floor. Already an excellent rebounder, he might be better...and his presence might allow his team to specialize in an ultra small ball line-up where Magic runs the PG from the 4 position.

*I bear in mind that Larry shares many similar physical attributes and that his shooting and passing ability would also be proportionately more valuable with the 3-point line. As I said before, I think he'd be a monster. But I think Magic's size relative to his position ends up being a better trump card than Bird's shooting in a match-up that otherwise breaks very evenly.

[ronnymac2]

Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon

I've never experienced a group of my coworkers addicted to cocaine or Kevin McHale's horrific GMing, so I don't know which is worse, but I think it's reasonable to expect both circumstances to hold back connected individuals.

Prime Kevin Garnett is getting the benefit of the doubt in his situation (As he should). Prime Hakeem Olajuwon is being compared to Peak Hakeem Olajuwon (He shouldn't). What I'd invite those concerned about Olajuwon's pre-peak to consider is the circumstances surrounding Olajuwon and what ANYBODY could have done to do better in the situation. If you're finding yourself answering "Peak Shaq, Peak Hakeem, Peak KAJ" — and I personally think you will — maybe your perspective on Dream will change a bit.

I've got 10 years of a GOAT prime (1986-1990, 1993-1997) with a GOAT peak in 1993 and 1994 (maybe 1995). I've got 2 All-NBA caliber seasons in 1991 and 1992, with 3 more years of strong play. This gives Dream superior longevity to Magic Johnson and Larry Bird.

In my opinion, I have a better chance of winning more NBA titles with Hakeem Olajuwon than I do with Magic Johnson or Larry Bird. He's a better player for 3 years, he's an equal or better player for 10 years, and he's got more years of being better.

[ceiling raiser]

I'm still leaning Hakeem, but a lot of the KG stuff is extremely convincing (I actually do think there's a fair chance Garnett might have been superior defensively). Both are terrific picks here.

It doesn't look like either guy will be voted in here, so hopefully the great conversation regarding both players continues.

[Basketballefan]

I love how the Kg supporters ignore the fact that KG missed the playoffs 3 straight years out of his prime...tell me what top 10 player does that? You're telling me Duncan, LbJ, Shaq Bird, Magic or even Kobe would miss playoffs 3 years of their prime? His team wasn't great those years but neither was Kobe's inbetween Shaq and Pau and he still got in. Duncan had an old Drob, young Manu and Parker before they were all stars and were still in contention and even won one. Let's not forget all the 1st round sweeps Kg had, a lot of which he didnt play well. So basically KG arguably wasn't even a top 5 player from 05-07, not sure you can be top 5 if your team didn't even make playoffs.

Look, Kg is definetly a top 20 player all time, or even top 15 i'd have no isssue with but these claims that Kg is top 8 is getting absurd.

[ardee]

I love how the Kg supporters ignore the fact that KG missed the playoffs 3 straight years out of his prime...tell me what top 10 player does that? You're telling me Duncan, LbJ, Shaq Bird, Magic or even Kobe would miss playoffs 3 years of their prime? His team wasn't great those years but neither was Kobe's inbetween Shaq and Pau and he still got in. Duncan had an old Drob, young Manu and Parker before they were all stars and were still in contention and even won one. Let's not forget all the 1st round sweeps Kg had, a lot of which he didnt play well. So basically KG arguably wasn't even a top 5 player from 05-07, not sure you can be top 5 if your team didn't even make playoffs.

Look, Kg is definetly a top 20 player all time, or even top 15 i'd have no isssue with but these claims that Kg is top 8 is getting absurd.

I personally don't think KG's '05-'07 stretch should be held against him, those teams were really horrific.

I'm just not seeing the defensive impact people claimed he had in his prime Minny years, doubly so in the Playoffs.

[Jim Naismith]

The majority of the people who voted in the RPOY project plus me believe that Magic did not deserve 2 of those MVPs.

You're right. These are the rankings. Magic is #1 only once, whereas Bird is #1 four times.

1980: Kareem, Dr. J., Bird, Moses, Magic
1981: Bird, Moses, Dr. J, Kareem
1982: Moses, Dr. J, Magic, Bird
1983: Moses, Bird, Magic
1984: Bird, Magic, Bernard
1985: Bird, Magic, Kareem, Moses, Jordan
1986: Bird, Magic, Hakeem
1987: Magic, Bird, Jordan, Hakeem
1988: Jordan, Magic, Bird, Hakeem
1989: Jordan, Magic, Barkley, Hakeem
1990: Jordan, Magic, Barkley, Ewing
1991: Jordan, Magic, Karl Malone, Barkley

[Texas Chuck]

The majority of the people who voted in the RPOY project plus me believe that Magic did not deserve 2 of those MVPs.

You're right. These are the rankings. Magic is #1 only once, whereas Bird is #1 four times.

1980: Kareem, Dr. J., Bird, Moses, Magic
1981: Bird, Moses, Dr. J, Kareem
1982: Moses, Dr. J, Magic, Bird
1983: Moses, Bird, Magic
1984: Bird, Magic, Bernard
1985: Bird, Magic, Kareem, Moses, Jordan
1986: Bird, Magic, Hakeem
1987: Magic, Bird, Jordan, Hakeem
1988: Jordan, Magic, Bird, Hakeem
1989: Jordan, Magic, Barkley, Hakeem
1990: Jordan, Magic, Barkley, Ewing
1991: Jordan, Magic, Karl Malone, Barkley

Considering that list shows Magic with 7 2nds and 4 of them against the GOAT according to this project Im not sure this is really a good argument against him, is it?

[colts18]

Then, on the flip side, I fully believe that Garnett could have also won a title with a similar degree of team support as the '03 Spurs or mid-90s Rockets (he was a Cassell injury away from pulling it off in '04, IMO).

KG had plenty of support but he let down his teammates. His support played better than Duncan's support in the playoffs.

00 Shaq, 11 Dirk, 03 Duncan, 04 KG, 94 Hakeem. This is what their top 6 playoff minutes players averaged in the playoffs:

Code: Select all

            PTS   TS%   TRB    AST
Shaq      9.8    0.511   4.0   2.6
Hakeem    10.5   0.536   4.4   3.3
Duncan    10.2   0.512   4.3   2.1
Garnett   10.7   0.551   3.5   2.3
Dirk      10.5   0.557   4.3   2.8


Code: Select all

      PER   WS/48   O rating   D rating   Ortg - Drtg
Shaq      13.7   0.090   108.8   108.3   0.5
Hakeem    14.1   0.101   108.2   106.5   1.7
Duncan    13.1   0.111   103.5   98.7   4.8
Garnett   14.9   0.114   110.8   103.5   7.3
Dirk      15.9   0.134   113.8   107.0   6.8

[An Unbiased Fan]

Vote #8: Magic

-GOAT Offensive Plaer
-GOAT Passer
-GOAT Mismatch
-GOAT Point Guard
-ATG Teammate
-9 straight season finishing Top 3 MVP or higher.
-Only 2 players scored 25+ pts/10, while still have 40%+ AST% & 10%+ TREB%. Magic did is 3 times(89-91), and Lebron did it in 2010.
-9-time All-NBA 1st teams (83-91)

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=da3LRYkQdas[/youtube]

[Basketballefan]

I love how the Kg supporters ignore the fact that KG missed the playoffs 3 straight years out of his prime...tell me what top 10 player does that? You're telling me Duncan, LbJ, Shaq Bird, Magic or even Kobe would miss playoffs 3 years of their prime? His team wasn't great those years but neither was Kobe's inbetween Shaq and Pau and he still got in. Duncan had an old Drob, young Manu and Parker before they were all stars and were still in contention and even won one. Let's not forget all the 1st round sweeps Kg had, a lot of which he didnt play well. So basically KG arguably wasn't even a top 5 player from 05-07, not sure you can be top 5 if your team didn't even make playoffs.

Look, Kg is definetly a top 20 player all time, or even top 15 i'd have no isssue with but these claims that Kg is top 8 is getting absurd.

I personally don't think KG's '05-'07 stretch should be held against him, those teams were really horrific.

I'm just not seeing the defensive impact people claimed he had in his prime Minny years, doubly so in the Playoffs.

That's fair.
My point is just i don't see his impact being at a top 10 goat level.

[john248]

My vote is for Magic Johnson. Came into the league all-star caliber Swiss army knife. By 84 as the full-time PG, he was playing at an MVP level. By 87, playing at an all-time level. Bird certainly was better for more years from 80-86, but Magic was more exceptional in the playoffs. I missed the last couple threads, but I was convinced to vote LeBron over Magic and Bird. I do think Magic should go here though. I like Hakeem too. Just not too convinced about his non-peak years.

[penbeast0]

The majority of the people who voted in the RPOY project plus me believe that Magic did not deserve 2 of those MVPs.

You're right. These are the rankings. Magic is #1 only once, whereas Bird is #1 four times.

1980: Kareem, Dr. J., Bird, Moses, Magic
1981: Bird, Moses, Dr. J, Kareem
1982: Moses, Dr. J, Magic, Bird
1983: Moses, Bird, Magic
1984: Bird, Magic, Bernard
1985: Bird, Magic, Kareem, Moses, Jordan
1986: Bird, Magic, Hakeem
1987: Magic, Bird, Jordan, Hakeem
1988: Jordan, Magic, Bird, Hakeem
1989: Jordan, Magic, Barkley, Hakeem
1990: Jordan, Magic, Barkley, Ewing
1991: Jordan, Magic, Karl Malone, Barkley

On the other hand, Magic is second 7 times whereas Bird is second only twice . . . fwiw.

[ardee]

Then, on the flip side, I fully believe that Garnett could have also won a title with a similar degree of team support as the '03 Spurs or mid-90s Rockets (he was a Cassell injury away from pulling it off in '04, IMO).

KG had plenty of support but he let down his teammates. His support played better than Duncan's support in the playoffs.

00 Shaq, 11 Dirk, 03 Duncan, 04 KG, 94 Hakeem. This is what their top 6 playoff minutes players averaged in the playoffs:

Code: Select all

            PTS   TS%   TRB    AST
Shaq      9.8    0.511   4.0   2.6
Hakeem    10.5   0.536   4.4   3.3
Duncan    10.2   0.512   4.3   2.1
Garnett   10.7   0.551   3.5   2.3
Dirk      10.5   0.557   4.3   2.8


Code: Select all

      PER   WS/48   O rating   D rating   Ortg - Drtg
Shaq      13.7   0.090   108.8   108.3   0.5
Hakeem    14.1   0.101   108.2   106.5   1.7
Duncan    13.1   0.111   103.5   98.7   4.8
Garnett   14.9   0.114   110.8   103.5   7.3
Dirk      15.9   0.134   113.8   107.0   6.8

Yeah, there is NO WAY you could replace Duncan with KG on the 2003 Spurs or Hakeem with KG on the '94 Rockets and see a title.

Those teams were built around Hakeem/Duncan's low post creation and rim protection, two things KG falls way behind in.

That's another thing I'll talk about more when the time comes to discuss KG in depth: rim protection. KG voters are going on about his ability to come out on perimeter players and show on the PnR, but isn't it more important to make sure that they don't get easy shots at the rim? By showing on a pick and defending well, you're basically stopping a jumper (less efficient shot than a layup at the rim), or sealing off the drive (which is more dangerous than anticipating it at the rim).

It's a high-risk, high-reward thing for a big man to do. If you pull it off perfectly, sure, you've damaged their possession, but it's dangerous because it pulls the big man out of the paint, opening cutting lanes.

I can't find a team's shot charts against, but I'd be willing to bet that KG underperforms massively as a rim protector compared to Hakeem/DRob/Duncan, and part of this may be because of this style of defense that his voters are so gung-ho about.

Now, obviously it worked in Boston, but in Boston he had the luxury of a big body at the rim in Perkins. It definitely didn't work in Minnesota, and I have to wonder if his teams would have been better served had he been a traditional rim protector, instead of rushing out of the paint to try and cover the whole floor.

[penbeast0]

In the interest of fairness Hakeem was a much greater defender than Bird or Magic -so was Garnett.
But how high do you rate a guy who is considered at best average on defense all-time?

LeBron is way better on defense than Bird or Magic, which is why I have him ahead of those 2.

I did basic ratings here viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1329351

It's obviously not perfect, just some basic guidelines I have in my head I put down on paper.

Magic is only guy from top 15 last time to be considered average defender

Actually Bird was top 15 and was considered at best an average defender over the course of his career (higher rated early on admittedly). For that matter, I think Moses is considered only an average defensive center.

[DQuinn1575]

The majority of the people who voted in the RPOY project plus me believe that Magic did not deserve 2 of those MVPs.

You're right. These are the rankings. Magic is #1 only once, whereas Bird is #1 four times.

1980: Kareem, Dr. J., Bird, Moses, Magic
1981: Bird, Moses, Dr. J, Kareem
1982: Moses, Dr. J, Magic, Bird
1983: Moses, Bird, Magic
1984: Bird, Magic, Bernard
1985: Bird, Magic, Kareem, Moses, Jordan
1986: Bird, Magic, Hakeem
1987: Magic, Bird, Jordan, Hakeem
1988: Jordan, Magic, Bird, Hakeem
1989: Jordan, Magic, Barkley, Hakeem
1990: Jordan, Magic, Barkley, Ewing
1991: Jordan, Magic, Karl Malone, Barkley

Considering that list shows Magic with 7 2nds and 4 of them against the GOAT according to this project Im not sure this is really a good argument against him, is it?

Okay.let's say I basically agree with the ranking of Bird versus Magic except 1982 where Bird finished 2nd in MVP voting, Magic finished 8th and was 2nd team all-league - Bird got 20 1st place votes for MVP- Magic got 0 . I think most people would concede that - otherwise let's say it is right.

Let's say I agree with the choices for RPOY every year.

Here is my perspective as one who show this year by year with these guys:

Bird and Magic entered the league in 1979-1980. Bird is a better player than Magic every year thru 1985- six years in a row,with little doubt.

1986 comes along - Magic improves his outside shot, and becomes a bigger part of the scoring with the decline of Kareem - as a result Magic is now Bird's equal.

They stay equal for 3 years - in my mind in 1988 I think Bird is definitely better, because in the NBA he was either better or equal to Magic.

1989 comes and Bird declines - Magic is better than Bird, not because he improves, but because Bird is hurt. Magic stays at that level for 3 years.

So I have Bird at 5 star level (or whatever) 1980-88, and then he gets hurt. He still is 4+ star -when healthy 1989-91.

80-82 54.1% TS 20.4 AST% 15.8% TRB 24.9 USG 2.3 STL%
90-92 54.1% TS 27.5 AST% 13.3% TRB 25.5 USG 1.8 STL%

Better passer, worse rebounder, same TS% on same USG - steals down

I have Magic at a 4 star level (or whatever) 1980-85, then a 5 star level 1986-1991.

In my mind, Magic is never better than Bird, and played at about his level for 6 years.
Bird played at that level for 9 years.
And in his 9 years, Magic was never better, he just (maybe) caught Bird.

So in my mind, I can't rank Magic ahead of Bird, because I never think of Magic being better than Bird - just that when Bird was injured Magic wasn't.

I guess my question to those who voted for Magic is - at what point do the lines cross and Magic's career surpasses Bird's? Because to me it has to be somewhere after 1988 - but when??

Thanks