RealGM Top 100 List #10

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#441 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:36 pm

therealbig3 wrote:So personally, I'd take Bird's superior level of play over the course of his prime rather than take Kobe for 5 extra seasons where he's still good, but not really THAT great, certainly not as great as the box score suggests from 11-13.

But again, how was Bird's prime superior?

Regular Season per 100:
80-88 Bird: 31/8/13 on 57% TS 24.2 PER
01-10 Kobe: 38/7/7 on 56% TS 24.6 PER

Playoffs:
80-88 Bird: 28/7/14 on 56% TS 21.9 PER
01-10 Kobe: 36/7/7 on 55% TS 23.5 PER

if you look at per-prime, prime/post-prime...Kobe seems to win out.

Factoring in the playoffs.

Career with SRS Advantage:
00-12 Kobe: 20-1
80-90 Bird: 20-5

Kobe's one loss to to a lesser SRS team was in 2011 to Dallas, the eventual champs. Kobe didn't play well dropping 23 ppg on 52% TS.

Bird however lost to a team with lesser SRS 5 out the the 10 years.

1980: The #1 seed Celtics lose 1-4 to the 76ers in the ECF, with Dr. J dropping 25 ppg in the series. Can't blame rookie Bird here that much, and game 3 was pretty epic.

1982: Again, the #1 seed Celtics lose to the 76ers. Bird's shooting was off the mark, 18.3 ppg on 45% TS. He did board & assist well though.

1983: Boston swept by the Bucks. Bird shoots 18.7 ppg, on 45% TS

1988: Detroit finally upsets Boston. McHale drops 27 ppg on 63% TS. Bird shoots 19.8 ppg on 45% TS.

1990: Knicks upset Boston in the 1st round. Bird was good though dropping 24/9/9 on 54% TS.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#442 » by magicmerl » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:36 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:And that brings up a question for me:

Why is looking at team success from a w/l perspective so frowned upon, but we don't think twice about using team offenses to support guys like Nash/Magic and in this case: question Bird?

This seems inconsistent to me, but maybe I'm missing something.

Well, I think we do factor team success in. The question is, it's important not to overrate team success, otherwise Horry is a surefire HOFer. So somewhere there's a continuum between Bill Russell and Robert Horry where you don't credit a player for 'winning a ring' when there were other better players on their team.

For example, Chris Bosh as a player I don't think is a fundamentally different from Toronto to Miami. He's added a 3pt shot, and his minutes and USG% have gone down because he's playing on a more talented team. But he's not a worse player at all.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#443 » by colts18 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:49 pm

drza wrote:
OK, stop for a second and let's think about this logically. You're making this abstract and about numbers, when this is a specific example where we actually have context and facts. Numbers can do a good job of summarizing a player's contributions over a time period, but the game isn't played with numbers. So I want you to explain, using basketball logic, how this starting line-up:

2004 Michael Olowokandi, Kevin Garnett, Trenton Hassell, Latrell Sprewell, Darrick Martin

...swaps out KG for 2000 Shaq (and maybe moves Olowokandi to the bench in exchange for Mark Madsen) and wins a best-of-7 series against the 2004 Lakers. Shaq's actual 2000 numbers against Rik Smits and the Pacers are completely irrelevent, because he is on longer facing Rik Smits in the paint. No, he'd be facing the 2004 version of Shaq, with a little Karl Malone chaser. Similarly, the numbers of the 2004 supporting cast of the Wolves are no longer valid either, because they are no longer playing with KG, so we now need to figure out what they would produce next to Shaq.

Here's some questions for you:

*What is the Wolves' new offensive strategy? It can't be to pound it in to 2000 Shaq, because news flash: the Lakers would probably be defending against that. 2004 Shaq is leaning his monster frame all over 2000 Shaq (2004 Shaq might be bad against the pick-and-roll, but he's even bigger than 2000 Shaq and he LOVES to stay in the paint and lean). And oh yeah, Karl Malone isn't guarding Mark Madsen...ever. Instead, Malone is parked in the lane too, with his full attention focused on Shaq. And oh, Devean George and Gary Payton also aren't guarding Trenton Hassell and Darrick Martin...ever. Instead, they are parked around the key, waiting for someone to try to enter the ball to 2000 Shaq so that they can either steal it or triple (quadruple?) team poor 2000 Shaq. This team has no spacing. Sprewell can shoot to his heart's content, much like he did in the actual 2004 series, because even Kobe only has 1 eye on him and the other is focused on the superstar. But 2000 Shaq is surrounded in the paint, and he can't bring his game out of the paint because that'd be dumb, it's not his strength. So what is the team to do?

I know! Maybe the Wolves will go to their bench. Bring in Wally and Hoiberg for Hassell and Martin. This leads to the follow-up question:

Who is playing point guard for the Wolves? KG's NEVER been a point guard. But he had to be for long stretches of that series because the main 2 point guards on the team (Cassell and Hudson) were injured and the only one left was signed to a 10-day contract. So now, Martin's on the bench. Wally (oh yeah, did I mention Wally was playing through 3 cracked vertebrae in that postseason? Just a note) and Hoiberg are shooters. Shaq's in the paint. Madsen (or whoever is playing the 4) shouldn't touch the ball ever. So who's setting up the team and creating offense? With the shooters out there George and Payton are now actually paying attention to their men. 2000 Shaq "only" has to deal with 2004 Shaq on his back and Karl Malone fronting him (because, you know, he's NEVER going to guard Madsen). Kobe still has 1 eye on Sprewell, so maybe he can still score some points. But other than that...yeah, the Wolves are still stuck on offense. And oh yeah, on defense...

When the Wolves have their shooter line-up in, who's guarding...anyone on the Lakers? 2000 Shaq has his hands absolutely full trying to deal with 2004 Shaq's big body in the paint. Which means that Sprewell, Wally, Hoiberg and Madsen are now on islands against Kobe, Mailman, Payton and George (or Fisher). I'm going to go out on a limb here, and say that the 2004 Lakers are having an offensive FIELD DAY right now. Do you disagree?

Summary: I think the 2004 Wolves are getting swept with 2000 Shaq in there instead of KG. Actually, Cassell was able to go (at some attenuated percentage) for 2 games, so maybe the Shaq Wolves might win a game or two. But I see no way they make this a series. You keep talking about how the other Wolves were producing not-terrible offensive numbers in the 2004 playoffs. Question: why do you think that was? With their starting point guard limping and eventually out, who do you think was creating offense for them? Who do you think was creating spacing so that they could maneuver? Who do you think was either making the pass, or making the pass-that-led-to-the-pass for open shots? Often from the high-post, mind you, because the paint was filled with huge superstars. Heck, who do you think was bringing the ball up the court more times than not?

Peak Shaq was a MONSTER. But his skill set doesn't allow for him to create under these conditions. He would have still produced, because he was that great. But I see no realistic way that he produces enough, in those conditions, to beat Shaq, Kobe and those Lakers 4 times in 7 games. If you disagree, then tell me how. Only, don't tell me with numbers. I want you to explain, using basketball strategy, how your theory might have played out.


Shaq could definitely win that series.


Do you honestly believe that the reason why the TWolves offensive players played well was because of KG but that it couldn't be replicated by Shaq, a guy who is a top 3 offensive creator in history?

KG's cast would fit well for Shaq. KG's cast shot 36.9 3P% that season which would have been 3rd in the NBA. Shaq's team shot 33% and finished 24th. Do you think that KG is better at creating 3 pointers for his team than Shaq?

You don't have lie with your spacing point. That team has plenty of spacing or else they wouldn't be a top 3 3P shooting team. Shaq had no shooters at all on his 2000 team with the exception of Rice. KG's team had plenty of shooting.

You make sound like Shaq would have a hard time breaking 2004 Shaq/Malone frontline. Peak Shaq destroyed Sabonis/Wallace and Mutombo. He would have no problem scoring on that frontline.

In the first month of the season, Kobe was out with an injury. This was Shaq's lineup:

Harper 36 years old
Fisher 25 years old
Rice 32 years old
AC Green 36 years old
Shaq

Do you know what Shaq did with that lineup? He went 11-3 and posted a 6.61 SRS. That is a horrific lineup that would probably be a -10 SRS team without Shaq, yet he turned that into an elite squad. KG had Cassell (2nd team all-NBA) and Sprewell. That is more than enough for Shaq.

You bring up that Malone won't guard the TWolves PF, but did you watch the 2000 Lakers at all? No one guarded AC Green or Ron Harper at all. Watch the Blazers series. Shaq was getting much more attention than KG has at any point of his career. Olowakandi and Cassell/Martin are still better than Harper and Green on their last legs.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#444 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:49 pm

Disclaimers:

Spoiler:
Since once again we already have a number of guys attempting to define the discussion for the next thread and since Kobe and KG have been prominently featured in these posts, I thought I'd start with a little Dirk discussion since it seems odd to discuss KG and Kobe and ignore a guy from the same time period who imo at least deserves legit consideration alongside those 2.

I will be making a series of posts so as not to overwhelm the board. Please do not think I am ignoring certain parts or aspects of Dirk's career. I will get to it. If I tried to make one post with all my thoughts on Dirk no one would ever want to read it.


And let me start with a clear caveat: most all of you are probably all aware, but let me be crystal clear: I'm a Dirk guy. I am going to do my best to be objective regarding him, but you should probably take my posts with a grain of salt and please don't hesitate to challenge any of my assertions especially if you think I paint him in too good a light.



Topic 1: The Cuban Influence

Let me start this topic by saying I'm not a big fan of basing rankings heavily at all based on teammates, coaching, and organization, but others here clearly do so I'd like to share some perspective on this regarding Dirk and where better to start than with the other big factor in the Mavs success of the Dirk era: Cubes.

The Mavericks were the worst franchise in the NBA(and maybe in American professional sports) prior to Cuban buying the team. He bought the team 1/4/00. In the 9 years prior to Cuban buying the team they won an average of 22 games. They finished just below .500 the season the bought the team with the team playing far better after he bought the team. The team then won 50+ games every year until the 2012 lockout.

Not only were the Mavs a horrible franchise, the owner Ross Perot Jr only bought the team to build the new arena. It was all a real estate deal. So getting any new owner would help, but Cuban came in and did it right. Everything was 1st class. He was the first owner to get comfortable chairs on the benches, and over-sized luxury towels and the best technology in the locker room etc. This culture change was a big part of the Mavs turn around.

Cuban also didn't do what most owners would do when they took over--he didnt fire the Nelsons despite the poor record and prior to that magical day when they landed Dirk and Nash a bunch of horrible trades including Kidd for Finley and bringing in Bradley and Pack to be the cornerstones of the franchise. No he was patient and Dirk benefited from it.

And of course the money. Only the Knicks made more luxury tax payments. We can argue teammates for Dirk in comparison to his peers, but we can't argue that the Mavs spent big on players. Dallas never scrimped on role players. So if we are going to talk about Dirk's 50+ streak we need to acknowledge the role Cuban's money paid in this. If guys are going to blame KG's contracts for Minny not being able to compete, understand that even if he had Dirk's contracts the Mavs were still going to outspend the Wolves.

And finally Cuban never once wavered in his belief that Dirk could be the centerpiece of a champion. He never once seriously considered trading him even tho some of the alleged offers were really good and he continued to shape the roster in a Dirk-friendly manner. We can point out the lack of high-end teammates Dirk played with especially post-Nash, but its hard to argue from 05-11 that Dirk didn't play with a roster tailored to his strengths and Cuban deserves acknowledgement for that.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#445 » by tsherkin » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:50 pm

magicmerl wrote:For example, Chris Bosh as a player I don't think is a fundamentally different from Toronto to Miami. He's added a 3pt shot, and his minutes and USG% have gone down because he's playing on a more talented team. But he's not a worse player at all.


That's not entirely true; he's fluctuated noticeably on the defensive glass and in 2013, he was a gigantic sissy bitch on the defensive glass. That's not from competition extending from his teammates, as Miami is very weak there. It's also not due to being out of position, because it's defensive rebounding. He's been consistently as bad or worse than his least-effective defensive rebounding season in Toronto as part of the Heat. That's a definite decline.

In all other respects though, I agree; he's simply being used differently now, offensively.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#446 » by Narigo » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:54 pm

acrossthecourt wrote:
edit: Anyone got good full game links for the next set of players? Particularly the older ones: Oscar, West, even Robinson and Karl.




Spoiler:
Oscar Robertson
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3UrnXXKKvQ[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_uAJlWP0lQ[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTs918TZ-qo[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9NUC_mflTI[/youtube]



Jerry West
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lnu5vMfPtbw[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L78v25cinYI[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbFcAYrco18[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqWD5lhGBOQ[/youtube]


David Robinson
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5etUWzOBKqM[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIGmR4OVe3E[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgZNxCa31Y[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0TwloLzXi0[/youtube]

Karl Malone[/b]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8SdPAC3l4E[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOuyjX7xS5A[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1sGwDU-TUo[/youtube]



here ya go
Narigo's Fantasy Team

PG: Damian Lillard
SG: Sidney Moncrief
SF:
PF: James Worthy
C: Tim Duncan

BE: Robert Horry
BE:
BE:
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#447 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:55 pm

andrewww wrote: .......If we're speaking clearly on results, then Kobe has as good a case as anyone at this juncture.

If you want me to name names, then I certainly will. I was trying to be civil but if you insist and are implying that I'm spewing nonsense, here goes.

1)Baller2014
2)RSCD3_
3)Colts18
4)Trex_8063
5)ReservoirDawg

It's not so much about who is getting voted in, but rather the nonsense and completey inaccurate stereotypes to justify one's selection that I am calling out.



Wait, what? Just so I'm clear, why am I on this particular s***list of yours? Am I being called out for vendetta against Kobe (that seems to be the context of the rest of the post)?
If so, I'm curious what the basis of that is, given I've not made a single post itt about Kobe (positive or negative).
And in the #9 thread, the only posts I made about Kobe was a whole series DEFENDING Kobe's 2001 playoff run against attacks.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#448 » by ronnymac2 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:55 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:Only the Knicks made more luxury tax payments.


SMH
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#449 » by DQuinn1575 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:55 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:Kobe's one loss to to a lesser SRS team was in 2011 to Dallas, the eventual champs. Kobe didn't play well dropping 23 ppg on 52% TS.

Bird however lost to a team with lesser SRS 5 out the the 10 years.

1980: The #1 seed Celtics lose 1-4 to the 76ers in the ECF, with Dr. J dropping 25 ppg in the series. Can't blame rookie Bird here that much, and game 3 was pretty epic.

1982: Again, the #1 seed Celtics lose to the 76ers. Bird's shooting was off the mark, 18.3 ppg on 45% TS. He did board & assist well though.

1983: Boston swept by the Bucks. Bird shoots 18.7 ppg, on 45% TS

1988: Detroit finally upsets Boston. McHale drops 27 ppg on 63% TS. Bird shoots 19.8 ppg on 45% TS.

1990: Knicks upset Boston in the 1st round. Bird was good though dropping 24/9/9 on 54% TS.


The two that don't seem obvious:

1983 - Bucks beat Sixers one game, almost beat them a second. The Sixers swept Kareem and Magic
1990- The Knicks lost Oakley for about 20 games; their record with Oakley was about the same as the Celts

The beating a better than or worse than SRS team doesn't sit well with me you're penalizing a team for having a better record and rewarding a team for having a lesser regular season

Bird has a rs career 660-237 record, .736, 60.3 wins
versus Kobe 813-432 53.5 wins
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#450 » by acrossthecourt » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:56 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
Spoiler:
therealbig3 wrote:So personally, I'd take Bird's superior level of play over the course of his prime rather than take Kobe for 5 extra seasons where he's still good, but not really THAT great, certainly not as great as the box score suggests from 11-13.

But again, how was Bird's prime superior?

Regular Season per 100:
80-88 Bird: 31/8/13 on 57% TS 24.2 PER
01-10 Kobe: 38/7/7 on 56% TS 24.6 PER

Playoffs:
80-88 Bird: 28/7/14 on 56% TS 21.9 PER
01-10 Kobe: 36/7/7 on 55% TS 23.5 PER

if you look at per-prime, prime/post-prime...Kobe seems to win out.

Factoring in the playoffs.

Career with SRS Advantage:
00-12 Kobe: 20-1
80-90 Bird: 20-5

Kobe's one loss to to a lesser SRS team was in 2011 to Dallas, the eventual champs. Kobe didn't play well dropping 23 ppg on 52% TS.

Bird however lost to a team with lesser SRS 5 out the the 10 years.

1980: The #1 seed Celtics lose 1-4 to the 76ers in the ECF, with Dr. J dropping 25 ppg in the series. Can't blame rookie Bird here that much, and game 3 was pretty epic.

1982: Again, the #1 seed Celtics lose to the 76ers. Bird's shooting was off the mark, 18.3 ppg on 45% TS. He did board & assist well though.

1983: Boston swept by the Bucks. Bird shoots 18.7 ppg, on 45% TS

1988: Detroit finally upsets Boston. McHale drops 27 ppg on 63% TS. Bird shoots 19.8 ppg on 45% TS.

1990: Knicks upset Boston in the 1st round. Bird was good though dropping 24/9/9 on 54% TS.

Do you know the weaknesses and problems with PER, by the way?

tsherkin wrote:
magicmerl wrote:For example, Chris Bosh as a player I don't think is a fundamentally different from Toronto to Miami. He's added a 3pt shot, and his minutes and USG% have gone down because he's playing on a more talented team. But he's not a worse player at all.


That's not entirely true; he's fluctuated noticeably on the defensive glass and in 2013, he was a gigantic sissy bitch on the defensive glass. That's not from competition extending from his teammates, as Miami is very weak there. It's also not due to being out of position, because it's defensive rebounding. He's been consistently as bad or worse than his least-effective defensive rebounding season in Toronto as part of the Heat. That's a definite decline.

In all other respects though, I agree; he's simply being used differently now, offensively.

Bosh's rebounding looked better when he played next to Bargnani. His splits on rebounding with/without Bargnani there are pretty incredible.

Here:
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamih ... ani-effect

12.6 per 40 with him, 10.7 without him. He wasn't actually a better rebounder back then (maybe by a slim margin.)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#451 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:59 pm

magicmerl wrote:
Chuck Texas wrote:And that brings up a question for me:

Why is looking at team success from a w/l perspective so frowned upon, but we don't think twice about using team offenses to support guys like Nash/Magic and in this case: question Bird?

This seems inconsistent to me, but maybe I'm missing something.

Well, I think we do factor team success in. The question is, it's important not to overrate team success, otherwise Horry is a surefire HOFer. So somewhere there's a continuum between Bill Russell and Robert Horry where you don't credit a player for 'winning a ring' when there were other better players on their team.

.



No offense because this is the default a bunch of guys go to, but using Robert Horry to make your point is next to useless. Its such an extreme that's its of no value.

But beyond that it doesnt address my question. No one thinks Horry is great because of his rings, but its obviously a big part of Russell's story because he is clearly the best player on all 11 of those teams.

But why if you mention Russell's 11 or Duncan's 5 or Kobe's 5 do so many posters scream to the heavens that we must ignore team results, but then many of those same posters use team otrg to argue for Nash? It makes no sense to me. I agree Nash should get credit for great team offenses because its obvious that he's a huge part of them. Just like the guys with all the rings should get credit because they are huge parts of them.

But it seems like either team stuff matters(imo it should be part of the consideration) or it doesnt. And for those who insist team w/l or championships don't matter at all then it seems inconsistent to cite team offensive ratings as a pro or con for a player.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#452 » by RayBan-Sematra » Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:02 pm

magicmerl wrote:Well, I think we do factor team success in. The question is, it's important not to overrate team success, otherwise Horry is a surefire HOFer. So somewhere there's a continuum between Bill Russell and Robert Horry where you don't credit a player for 'winning a ring' when there were other better players on their team.

For example, Chris Bosh as a player I don't think is a fundamentally different from Toronto to Miami. He's added a 3pt shot, and his minutes and USG% have gone down because he's playing on a more talented team. But he's not a worse player at all.


Yeah I like to be pretty careful when using team success to judge an individual.
In many cases it can be helpful but things like coaching, matchups, the performance of the supporting cast and even in many cases raw luck can highly alter team related stats & success which could unfairly reflect negatively on an individual.

Many players won or lost titles based on lucky shots, comes backs or bounces.
There are many other examples but you get the point.

You could also have a great defender with a poor defensive coach or a coach who focuses on offense and thus his team defenses may not be that great and on the other end you could have a not so great defender being made to look better by an amazing defensive coach or other factors.

The impact of an individual player is always (and usually heavily) outweighed by team factors.
There is only so much impact an individual can have in a team game even if he is put in an ideal setting to enhance said impact.

magicmerl wrote:For example, Chris Bosh as a player I don't think is a fundamentally different from Toronto to Miami. He's added a 3pt shot, and his minutes and USG% have gone down because he's playing on a more talented team. But he's not a worse player at all.


Yeah I agree.
Bosh hasn't really gotten worse (ability wise) since joining Miami, he just accepted a smaller role.
Not to say he hasn't been inconsistent as a playoff performer though.
In 2012 he had injury issues, in 2013 his scoring efficiency in the playoffs was poor (on lower then usual per minute volume) and in 2014 his rebounding was pathetic.

I always felt Bosh was unproven though which is why I dislike when people say he was on the same tier as a more proven guy like Pau Gasol.
Bosh really only had one "sort of decent" playoff run before joining Miami which was a quick 1st round exit in 2008.
He wasn't even that good in that series (2 good games, 3 bad games) and terrible defense (Dwight did whatever he wanted against him).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#453 » by The Infamous1 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:08 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:So personally, I'd take Bird's superior level of play over the course of his prime rather than take Kobe for 5 extra seasons where he's still good, but not really THAT great, certainly not as great as the box score suggests from 11-13.

But again, how was Bird's prime superior?

Regular Season per 100:
80-88 Bird: 31/8/13 on 57% TS 24.2 PER
01-10 Kobe: 38/7/7 on 56% TS 24.6 PER

Playoffs:
80-88 Bird: 28/7/14 on 56% TS 21.9 PER
01-10 Kobe: 36/7/7 on 55% TS 23.5 PER

if you look at per-prime, prime/post-prime...Kobe seems to win out.

Factoring in the playoffs.

Career with SRS Advantage:
00-12 Kobe: 20-1
80-90 Bird: 20-5

Kobe's one loss to to a lesser SRS team was in 2011 to Dallas, the eventual champs. Kobe didn't play well dropping 23 ppg on 52% TS.

Bird however lost to a team with lesser SRS 5 out the the 10 years.

1980: The #1 seed Celtics lose 1-4 to the 76ers in the ECF, with Dr. J dropping 25 ppg in the series. Can't blame rookie Bird here that much, and game 3 was pretty epic.

1982: Again, the #1 seed Celtics lose to the 76ers. Bird's shooting was off the mark, 18.3 ppg on 45% TS. He did board & assist well though.

1983: Boston swept by the Bucks. Bird shoots 18.7 ppg, on 45% TS

1988: Detroit finally upsets Boston. McHale drops 27 ppg on 63% TS. Bird shoots 19.8 ppg on 45% TS.

1990: Knicks upset Boston in the 1st round. Bird was good though dropping 24/9/9 on 54% TS.


It also should be noted that Kobe's prime came in a tougher era defensively(00's>>>>80's) and he played better defensive teams on average in the playoffs.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#454 » by magicmerl » Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:09 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:
magicmerl wrote:
Chuck Texas wrote:And that brings up a question for me:

Why is looking at team success from a w/l perspective so frowned upon, but we don't think twice about using team offenses to support guys like Nash/Magic and in this case: question Bird?

This seems inconsistent to me, but maybe I'm missing something.

Well, I think we do factor team success in. The question is, it's important not to overrate team success, otherwise Horry is a surefire HOFer. So somewhere there's a continuum between Bill Russell and Robert Horry where you don't credit a player for 'winning a ring' when there were other better players on their team.

.



No offense because this is the default a bunch of guys go to, but using Robert Horry to make your point is next to useless. Its such an extreme that's its of no value.

I don't take offense, but I also don't agree. Russell isn't responsible for all 11 of his championships (otherwise it's a crime that he didn't get #1 in this project). But he's responsible for a singificant portion of it, since he was clearly the best player and the anchor for their championship aspirations. Same as Duncan. Kobe is a clear level below to me, since I don't regard him as being the best player on the 3-peat (I think that was clearly Shaq) and if you had swapped him for a random player like say, Tracey McGrady they could easily have one those 3 or even 4 rings.

Chuck Texas wrote:But beyond that it doesnt address my question. No one thinks Horry is great because of his rings, but its obviously a big part of Russell's story because he is clearly the best player on all 11 of those teams.

But why if you mention Russell's 11 or Duncan's 5 or Kobe's 5 do so many posters scream to the heavens that we must ignore team results, but then many of those same posters use team otrg to argue for Nash? It makes no sense to me. I agree Nash should get credit for great team offenses because its obvious that he's a huge part of them. Just like the guys with all the rings should get credit because they are huge parts of them.

Well, this isn't really addressed to me, but I imagine the narrative is that those players are the 'hub' of their team's offenses, and thus deserve the lions share of the credit? I mean, Nash did pretty well with his (undeserved) MVPs out of that line of thinking I think.

Chuck Texas wrote:But it seems like either team stuff matters(imo it should be part of the consideration) or it doesnt. And for those who insist team w/l or championships don't matter at all then it seems inconsistent to cite team offensive ratings as a pro or con for a player.

I think it matters. It just can't be the whole picture (otherwise Kobe and Bird would both have been voted in over Hakeem). There's a balancing act here, and we're trying to find out where we sit on the slippery slope.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#455 » by acrossthecourt » Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:10 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:
magicmerl wrote:
Chuck Texas wrote:And that brings up a question for me:

Why is looking at team success from a w/l perspective so frowned upon, but we don't think twice about using team offenses to support guys like Nash/Magic and in this case: question Bird?

This seems inconsistent to me, but maybe I'm missing something.

Well, I think we do factor team success in. The question is, it's important not to overrate team success, otherwise Horry is a surefire HOFer. So somewhere there's a continuum between Bill Russell and Robert Horry where you don't credit a player for 'winning a ring' when there were other better players on their team.

.



No offense because this is the default a bunch of guys go to, but using Robert Horry to make your point is next to useless. Its such an extreme that's its of no value.

But beyond that it doesnt address my question. No one thinks Horry is great because of his rings, but its obviously a big part of Russell's story because he is clearly the best player on all 11 of those teams.

But why if you mention Russell's 11 or Duncan's 5 or Kobe's 5 do so many posters scream to the heavens that we must ignore team results, but then many of those same posters use team otrg to argue for Nash? It makes no sense to me. I agree Nash should get credit for great team offenses because its obvious that he's a huge part of them. Just like the guys with all the rings should get credit because they are huge parts of them.

But it seems like either team stuff matters(imo it should be part of the consideration) or it doesnt. And for those who insist team w/l or championships don't matter at all then it seems inconsistent to cite team offensive ratings as a pro or con for a player.

Because when Nash came to Phoenix, their offense exploded. People thought it may have been a fluke, but when Amare got injured for 2006 they continued destroying people on offense. And it kept happening year after year, even with Marion gone and with new guys. If you want to understand something, you isolate the variables and compare effects. Nash appeared to be the magic elixir.

It's the same with Russell. They kept winning without Cousy and even won with Russell as the coach. He appeared to be the significant constant, especially on defense.

Team success can be meaningless, but with some insight and context you can gleam powerful things. Simply using "rings" proves nothing much at all. That's what people object to.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#456 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:11 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
andrewww wrote: .......If we're speaking clearly on results, then Kobe has as good a case as anyone at this juncture.

If you want me to name names, then I certainly will. I was trying to be civil but if you insist and are implying that I'm spewing nonsense, here goes.

1)Baller2014
2)RSCD3_
3)Colts18
4)Trex_8063
5)ReservoirDawg

It's not so much about who is getting voted in, but rather the nonsense and completey inaccurate stereotypes to justify one's selection that I am calling out.



Wait, what? Just so I'm clear, why am I on this particular s***list of yours? Am I being called out for vendetta against Kobe (that seems to be the context of the rest of the post)?
If so, I'm curious what the basis of that is, given I've not made a single post itt about Kobe (positive or negative).
And in the #9 thread, the only posts I made about Kobe was a whole series DEFENDING Kobe's 2001 playoff run against attacks.


Okay, I understand that the "name names" thing was specifically requested by someone, but still this feels to me like it's just getting hostile. Everybody take a step back.

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#457 » by drza » Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:16 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:
Spoiler:
magicmerl wrote:
Chuck Texas wrote:And that brings up a question for me:

Why is looking at team success from a w/l perspective so frowned upon, but we don't think twice about using team offenses to support guys like Nash/Magic and in this case: question Bird?

This seems inconsistent to me, but maybe I'm missing something.

Well, I think we do factor team success in. The question is, it's important not to overrate team success, otherwise Horry is a surefire HOFer. So somewhere there's a continuum between Bill Russell and Robert Horry where you don't credit a player for 'winning a ring' when there were other better players on their team.

.


No offense because this is the default a bunch of guys go to, but using Robert Horry to make your point is next to useless. Its such an extreme that's its of no value.

But beyond that it doesnt address my question. No one thinks Horry is great because of his rings, but its obviously a big part of Russell's story because he is clearly the best player on all 11 of those teams.

But why if you mention Russell's 11 or Duncan's 5 or Kobe's 5 do so many posters scream to the heavens that we must ignore team results, but then many of those same posters use team otrg to argue for Nash? It makes no sense to me. I agree Nash should get credit for great team offenses because its obvious that he's a huge part of them. Just like the guys with all the rings should get credit because they are huge parts of them.

But it seems like either team stuff matters(imo it should be part of the consideration) or it doesnt. And for those who insist team w/l or championships don't matter at all then it seems inconsistent to cite team offensive ratings as a pro or con for a player.


Just my 2 cents as I interject here:

1) The Horry example is funny, because it's become almost gauche to use it, as though it's in bad taste. But really, it really does hammer the point that even ring counters aren't JUST counting rings. Maybe that should be a given at this point, but I don't have any problem with sometimes using the Horry example to beat on the dead horse if it tries to get up (true story, I actually started a long post yesterday where I used the Horry example, but the post started rambling and I didn't have time to finish it so I left it on the cutting room floor).

2) But more on-topic, my answer to your question about ring-counting vs. team offense/defense rating comparisons is that you're right, it's very similar. I guess that some might do it either a) in the absence of other, more specific data or b) when debating with others that don't agree with the more specific data.

For example, when talking about Russell, for me looking at the Celtics team defensive ratings through the years was very beneficial because it was actually a level up on the other information available. Instead of being stuck with just "11 rings" as a data point, we now had data that indicated that the Celtics' team defense was ridiculous, the team offense wasn't very impressive, and that the team defense improved and decline in direct correspondence to Russell's arrival, prime, decline and retirement...and also, there weren't any other contributors that were there the whole time. Put together, I think the team ratings are more illustrative here and more reasonably used, because we lack ways to really trace it more precisely. This also holds for guys like Oscar or even Magic, though we start having more data available for them to support the team rating results.

Contrast that with Nash. He also has been associated with many great offenses, just like Russell's defenses, but I don't think just looking at his team offensive ratings is as supportable of a thing to do because we have WAY more data now that has a lot more granularity than just team ratings that we can use to evaluate Nash's offense. There are box scores, advanced box scores, video scoring studies, the League Pass, and of course +/- studies that all pretty much agree that Nash's offensive impact was dumbly high. So if I'm in a Nash debate, and someone is just relying on his team offensive results to make their whole case, it'd seem either lazy or else a short-hand because the other ways to make the point were already understood/stipulated.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#458 » by therealbig3 » Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:18 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:So personally, I'd take Bird's superior level of play over the course of his prime rather than take Kobe for 5 extra seasons where he's still good, but not really THAT great, certainly not as great as the box score suggests from 11-13.

But again, how was Bird's prime superior?

Regular Season per 100:
80-88 Bird: 31/8/13 on 57% TS 24.2 PER
01-10 Kobe: 38/7/7 on 56% TS 24.6 PER

Playoffs:
80-88 Bird: 28/7/14 on 56% TS 21.9 PER
01-10 Kobe: 36/7/7 on 55% TS 23.5 PER

if you look at per-prime, prime/post-prime...Kobe seems to win out.

Factoring in the playoffs.

Career with SRS Advantage:
00-12 Kobe: 20-1
80-90 Bird: 20-5

Kobe's one loss to to a lesser SRS team was in 2011 to Dallas, the eventual champs. Kobe didn't play well dropping 23 ppg on 52% TS.

Bird however lost to a team with lesser SRS 5 out the the 10 years.

1980: The #1 seed Celtics lose 1-4 to the 76ers in the ECF, with Dr. J dropping 25 ppg in the series. Can't blame rookie Bird here that much, and game 3 was pretty epic.

1982: Again, the #1 seed Celtics lose to the 76ers. Bird's shooting was off the mark, 18.3 ppg on 45% TS. He did board & assist well though.

1983: Boston swept by the Bucks. Bird shoots 18.7 ppg, on 45% TS

1988: Detroit finally upsets Boston. McHale drops 27 ppg on 63% TS. Bird shoots 19.8 ppg on 45% TS.

1990: Knicks upset Boston in the 1st round. Bird was good though dropping 24/9/9 on 54% TS.


Well, it goes beyond the box score for me...by quite a bit imo. Kobe compares favorably to Bird in terms of production, but nobody can deny that the effects of spacing and off-ball movement aren't captured by the box, but are certainly extremely valuable. Bird did that a lot better than Kobe (especially if we're consistent and we consider how Bird would do with greater emphasis on the 3pt shot and the value of a stretch 4...he'd be a superhuman Dirk). And yeah, they both get a comparable number of assists, but that speaks to Bird's ability as a passer, that he can play a lot more off-ball (Kobe was the lead guard for the Lakers) and still rack up the assists, because he was that good at finding the open man. This is why to me, even in a lot of those series where Bird's efficiency suffers...he's still having superstar impact that was comparable to Kobe's impact when he's dropping 25/5/5 on 55% TS (or something similar)...possibly still superior impact tbh.

Now, defense seems to be a big point of contention here. I've watched a lot more Kobe than Bird, simply because there's a lot more available footage for Kobe, and I'm a little young to have watched Bird's full career, and I didn't become an avid NBA fan until 03, and have been playing catch up ever since. But what I have seen from Bird in what I've watched, and what seems to be strongly supported by articles and analysis by people that DID watch him play a lot more extensively was that he was a very strong help defender. Great at playing passing lanes, stripping the ball, deflecting the ball, doubling, etc. And that's one area of the game that I feel Kobe has always been somewhat lacking in. He's a notorious ball watcher...when he's not defending the ball handler, his man has a tendency to get open. In terms of man defense, even as he's aged, I feel like Kobe has always been solid when he's locked in, except for the last few years. But what we know about defense is that it's a team effort...individual man to man defense isn't going to move the needle all that much...it's about fitting into a team concept, and that's where Kobe lacks when compared to Bird, and that's why I find it really hard to not take Bird over Kobe defensively, despite Kobe's superior man defense. Furthermore, Bird was considered an average man defender as a SF...but even in his era, and especially if he had played closer to today, he was a PF defensively, and he's a great man defender at PF...strong, tough, smart, quick, great hands, high motor, etc. And then of course, we throw in defensive rebounding, where Bird trumps Kobe quite soundly.

Overall, despite the apparent non-existent difference, or even slight advantage for Kobe in the box score, Bird does a lot of things that you're just not going to find in the box score but still helps teams tremendously. That's why +/- is pretty highly valued around here, because I think everyone can accept that the box score doesn't capture everything. +/-, while obviously not perfect, is telling us what everyone wants to know: how much is a certain player helping his team?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#459 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:20 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:Kobe's one loss to to a lesser SRS team was in 2011 to Dallas, the eventual champs. Kobe didn't play well dropping 23 ppg on 52% TS.

Bird however lost to a team with lesser SRS 5 out the the 10 years.

1980: The #1 seed Celtics lose 1-4 to the 76ers in the ECF, with Dr. J dropping 25 ppg in the series. Can't blame rookie Bird here that much, and game 3 was pretty epic.

1982: Again, the #1 seed Celtics lose to the 76ers. Bird's shooting was off the mark, 18.3 ppg on 45% TS. He did board & assist well though.

1983: Boston swept by the Bucks. Bird shoots 18.7 ppg, on 45% TS

1988: Detroit finally upsets Boston. McHale drops 27 ppg on 63% TS. Bird shoots 19.8 ppg on 45% TS.

1990: Knicks upset Boston in the 1st round. Bird was good though dropping 24/9/9 on 54% TS.


The two that don't seem obvious:

1983 - Bucks beat Sixers one game, almost beat them a second. The Sixers swept Kareem and Magic
1990- The Knicks lost Oakley for about 20 games; their record with Oakley was about the same as the Celts

The beating a better than or worse than SRS team doesn't sit well with me you're penalizing a team for having a better record and rewarding a team for having a lesser regular season

Bird has a rs career 660-237 record, .736, 60.3 wins
versus Kobe 813-432 53.5 wins

-In 1983 Bird scored 18.7 ppg on 45% TS. And I'm not sure how the Bucks losing 4-1 to the 76ers somehow makes that loss ok.
-In 1990, i said I dont' really put blame on Bird.

Looking at SRS doesn't penalize teams at all. In general, a team with SRS advantage wins 70%+ of the time, so its a good success/fail acid test for teams.

Also, looking at career playoff games is pointless since Kobe wasn't even starting in the 90's.

Playoff series record:
00-12 Kobe: 28-8 77.8%
00-90 Bird: 22-7 75.9%
^
Note: Kobe faced better competition too.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#460 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:39 pm

therealbig3 wrote:Well, it goes beyond the box score for me...by quite a bit imo. Kobe compares favorably to Bird in terms of production, but nobody can deny that the effects of spacing and off-ball movement aren't captured by the box, but are certainly extremely valuable. Bird did that a lot better than Kobe (especially if we're consistent and we consider how Bird would do with greater emphasis on the 3pt shot and the value of a stretch 4...he'd be a superhuman Dirk). And yeah, they both get a comparable number of assists, but that speaks to Bird's ability as a passer, that he can play a lot more off-ball (Kobe was the lead guard for the Lakers) and still rack up the assists, because he was that good at finding the open man. This is why to me, even in a lot of those series where Bird's efficiency suffers...he's still having superstar impact that was comparable to Kobe's impact when he's dropping 25/5/5 on 55% TS (or something similar)...possibly still superior impact tbh.

Ok, but you haven't really explained how Bird did better. Kobe's AST% is higher too, and he was playing in the Tri which isn't assist friendly to begin with.

Just in terms of impact, Kobe was a prolific scorer for LA AND their primary playmaker. I posted this earlier, but its worth repeating...

Boston playmakers:
1980: Tiny 8.4, Bird 4.5
1981: Tiny 7.7, Bird 5.5
1982: Tiny 8.0, Bird 5.8
1983: Tiny 6.2, Bird 5.8
1984: Bird 6.6, DJ 4.2
1985: DJ 6.8, Bird 6.6
1986: Bird 6.8, DJ 5.8
1987: Bird 7.6, DJ 7.5
1988: DJ 7.8, Bird 6.1
1990: Bird 7.5, DJ 6.5

Laker playmakers:
2000: Kobe 4.9, Shaq 3.8
2001: Kobe 5.0, Fisher 4.4
2002: Kobe 5.5, Fox 3.5
2003: Kobe 5.9, Fisher 3.6
2004: Payton 5.5, Kobe 5.1
2005: Kobe 6.0, Chucky 4.4
2006: Odom 5.5, Kobe 4.5
2007: Kobe 5.4, Odom 4.8
2008: Kobe 5.4, Odom 3.5
2009: Kobe 4.9, Pau 3.5
2010: Kobe 5.0, Pau 3.4
2011: Kobe 4.7, Pau 3.3

Kobe never had the luxury of playing off the ball much. What exactly gives Bird the edge on offense?

Now, defense seems to be a big point of contention here. I've watched a lot more Kobe than Bird, simply because there's a lot more available footage for Kobe, and I'm a little young to have watched Bird's full career, and I didn't become an avid NBA fan until 03, and have been playing catch up ever since. But what I have seen from Bird in what I've watched, and what seems to be strongly supported by articles and analysis by people that DID watch him play a lot more extensively was that he was a very strong help defender. Great at playing passing lanes, stripping the ball, deflecting the ball, doubling, etc. And that's one area of the game that I feel Kobe has always been somewhat lacking in. He's a notorious ball watcher...when he's not defending the ball handler, his man has a tendency to get open. In terms of man defense, even as he's aged, I feel like Kobe has always been solid when he's locked in, except for the last few years. But what we know about defense is that it's a team effort...individual man to man defense isn't going to move the needle all that much...it's about fitting into a team concept, and that's where Kobe lacks when compared to Bird, and that's why I find it really hard to not take Bird over Kobe defensively, despite Kobe's superior man defense. Furthermore, Bird was considered an average man defender as a SF...but even in his era, and especially if he had played closer to today, he was a PF defensively, and he's a great man defender at PF...strong, tough, smart, quick, great hands, high motor, etc. And then of course, we throw in defensive rebounding, where Bird trumps Kobe quite soundly.

I watched Bird play, in person no less as a kid, and I wouldn't say he was a great help defender. in general, not many players in the 80's were great defenders. Sure, you had enforcers/bangers who would knock you around, but there was ALOT of standing around on defense back then. Bird was maybe a notch above Nique on D. But for the most part when both faced each other it was all offense. Bird was burned quite a bit.

Like i said before, this is a strange debate to have because its like someone asking if Nique was a better defender than Lebron. All i can point out are the differences, what their peers thought, and videos. If people think Nique is still an equal defender...all i cand o is throw my hands up and just leave it.

Overall, despite the apparent non-existent difference, or even slight advantage for Kobe in the box score, Bird does a lot of things that you're just not going to find in the box score but still helps teams tremendously. That's why +/- is pretty highly valued around here, because I think everyone can accept that the box score doesn't capture everything. +/-, while obviously not perfect, is telling us what everyone wants to know: how much is a certain player helping his team?

Ok...so what does Bird do that Kobe doesn't? Since Kobe had the greater team success with lesser support. And I'm not sure why your referencing +/- when Bird doesn't have those numbers.
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