Most likely going to be better Wiggins or Noel?

[76ciology]

Objectively, there's no advanced stats saying Wiggins will be the better player. You can check KPelton's WARP, Stl+blk, PER or anything.

Some quotes on KPelton's thought in insider

Kevin Pelton: Wiggins isn't quite so high on my statistical draft board. While he's climbed in the past month, and could continue to rise with a strong NCAA tournament run, Wiggins'WARP projection (1.5 WARP per year) ranks him in the 20s. When the actual draft class takes shape, I expect he'll be somewhere in the early 10s -- not exactly a red flag, certainly, but also not the kind of dominant numbers we expected from a player touted as a generational prospect.

Pelton: What troubles me is I don't see anything special about Wiggins' offensive stat line. Even with the recent outbursts, his usage rate and true shooting percentage (TS%) are both average from an NBA perspective. For example, Eric Gordon's translated performance as a freshman at Indiana was better in both categories.
Wiggins' 2-point percentage is particularly troublesome. His translation is 44.5 percent shooting in the NBA next season inside the arc; league average for a win is 48.2 percent. And I'm not sure where Wiggins is going to make that up, because his 3-point shooting is only adequate at this point and he doesn't get to the free throw line a ton.

Pelton:I think the best comparison for Wiggins is a name I haven't heard yet: Luol Deng. Deng's translated usage and TS% from his lone season at Duke are nearly identical to Wiggins this season. They're also similar on the glass, and both are fine individual defenders. Deng comes out with the highest similarity to Wiggins (98.2) of any prospect in my database at the same age.

You can also check Dean Demakis' analysis on Wiggins.
http://deanondraft.com/2014/02/14/andrew-wiggins-an-ordinary-player-in-an-extraordinary-body/

On Noel..
http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/2013/05/the-diff-the-stats-behind-drafting-nerlens-noel-at-no-1/

Subjectively on eye test, Wiggins doesn't seem like a guy who will have that great of a positive impact than Noel. Yes, Wiggins will make the sports center highlights, but he's more of show than substance. But he won't carry a team's offense or defense. He is limited on offense and seems to have a systematic flaw with his offense (posture, not a quick and out of the box thinker and poor touch around the rim).

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ISjeKIuumE[/youtube]

There’s no way around it: Andrew Wiggins has horrific touch around the rim and is completely inept at finishing in traffic. In 10 games against teams that are top 130 in both defense and block %, Wiggins is shooting just 22/72 (30.6%) from inside the arc.

http://deanondraft.com/2014/02/14/andrew-wiggins-an-ordinary-player-in-an-extraordinary-body/


I'm not saying Noel will be one of the top scorers in the league or something. But Noel's offense improved by leaps and bounds in summer league. This guy was supposedly comparable to a Ben Wallace on offense where he is limited by put backs and low FT%. But he has showed potential with his jumper, specially with his FT%. He has improved foot work at the post. He can finish with both hands, better touch around the rim (see FG%), Noel is a better passer than Wiggins and Noel is also a better ball handler relative to their position.


While on defense, it would take generational type players for a perimeter player to carry a team's defense.And even if Wiggins can be a perimeter player who can carry a team's defense, it will still be minuscule compared to the type of defense and intimidation Noel can bring in the interior.

Potential wise Noel is just less than a year older than Wiggins, but is already arguably more skilled than Wiggins, relative to their position. And with the defensive side being settled, I'd rather bet Noel ending up with a Serge Ibaka jumper than Wiggins developing into having advanced offensive skillset and instinct. Noel has shown great improvement and potential with his jumper while I've really never seen a guy (if there is, then maybe a very few) having that raw offensive skillset and feel for the game into a star caliber offensive player.

[Notanoob]

For further reading:
http://www.hickory-high.com/projecting- ... nba-draft/
Projects Wiggins to be an average SF.

http://deanondraft.com/2014/06/01/marcu ... -defender/
Wiggins was not a particularly special defender and isn't necessarily going to be a great defender just because he's athletic.

[HornetJail]

Wiggins in a landslide.

Wasn't this just posted yesterday?

[miltk]

i don't like noel, which says something about about the fact that i think he'll be better than wiggins. the wiggs checklist of things to improve on seems way too long and keeps growing every week,,,,or was. i think it's come down to he could be an elite defender which is a far cry from what he was a few months ago.

if he were a stock he'd be trending down, with a spike on possible trade value for love.

[DayofMourning]

Most who have issue with Noel will point to his offensive output. However, if you look at his defensive numbers, he's absolutely elite. He's a premier defender, who will change the game on that side of the ball. Pair him with Embiid down low, and guys like MCW and KJ on the perimeter (eventually that is) and the Sixers have a dominant defensive team. Noel has DPOY ability and that shouldn't be overlooked.

[76ciology]

Personally, it all comes down to whether Wiggins' offense can compensate Noel's superiority on defense.

Compared to guys like KD, LBJ, TMac, Kobe or even Jabari. Even in their HS days. I just thought that Wiggins doesn't have the natural ability and instinct of a scorer.

He has good fundamentals with his ball handling. He can get to places but it is not good enough to create at will and get him good looks. But he moves great with out dribbling like with his step backs, hop steps and just plan off ball movement.

Wiggins is very limited with offense and it makes him very predictable, thus college teams were able to shut him down. A casual NBA fan like me can even list all his moves on offense..

- right baseline, drive right and spin move when denied.
- step back
- hop step
- splitting the defenders on pnr, spin move when denied
- pull up when denied

For me, Wiggins is a natural freak athlete but a artificial/mechanical ball player. He just doesn't have the innate instinct, mentality and skillset of a well rounded ball player. His moves and thought process is very limited to the ones that you can watch in his workouts on youtube. He doesn't have that natural feel for the game that allows him to move and think out of the box.

Another thing to consider here is the opposing defense. In this era of the NBA, most teams have a defensive stopper at the wing position that is very athletic with same measurements with Wiggins (6'8 ht and 7'0 ws) that can negate his physical and athletic edge. You have to ask yourself.. Can Wiggins score against guys like Kawhi, Iggy, draymond green, MKG, Aminu, Luc Mbah, Deng, paul George, gerald wallace or batum?

Not saying noel will be a good scorer or anythinh but compared to Noel and his potential on offense, if you have really have been following him. He's got better feel, intinct and IQ in the game than Wiggins. He is already a good finisher with both hands, an improving shooter and post player and his ability to handle the ball and be a good passer shows he has good IQ.

Thus I don't think Wiggins's can compensate his offense with Noel's superiority on defense.

[CaliBullsFan]

Most who have issue with Noel will point to his offensive output. However, if you look at his defensive numbers, he's absolutely elite. He's a premier defender, who will change the game on that side of the ball. Pair him with Embiid down low, and guys like MCW and KJ on the perimeter (eventually that is) and the Sixers have a dominant defensive team. Noel has DPOY ability and that shouldn't be overlooked.

Noel is pound for pound the weakest player in the NBA he'll never be able to guard his position

[Mr Sixer]

Most who have issue with Noel will point to his offensive output. However, if you look at his defensive numbers, he's absolutely elite. He's a premier defender, who will change the game on that side of the ball. Pair him with Embiid down low, and guys like MCW and KJ on the perimeter (eventually that is) and the Sixers have a dominant defensive team. Noel has DPOY ability and that shouldn't be overlooked.

Noel is pound for pound the weakest player in the NBA he'll never be able to guard his position

Noel weighs 228, put on 20 pounds since last year, still has plenty of room to fill out, and projects to play PF next to Embiid at C. He weighs more than Ed Davis at 225, John Henson at 220, 7 pounds less than Larry Sanders at 6 11 who is considered a very good defender and is a C, and Anthony Davis who is listed at 220 (but probably weighs more to be honest). Considering he recently turned 20 and has plenty of years to grow, mature physically and put on more weight, your comment comes off as stupid.

[philly5]

Most who have issue with Noel will point to his offensive output. However, if you look at his defensive numbers, he's absolutely elite. He's a premier defender, who will change the game on that side of the ball. Pair him with Embiid down low, and guys like MCW and KJ on the perimeter (eventually that is) and the Sixers have a dominant defensive team. Noel has DPOY ability and that shouldn't be overlooked.

Noel is pound for pound the weakest player in the NBA he'll never be able to guard his position

Talking about a 20 year old like he's a finished product...

[CaliBullsFan]

Most who have issue with Noel will point to his offensive output. However, if you look at his defensive numbers, he's absolutely elite. He's a premier defender, who will change the game on that side of the ball. Pair him with Embiid down low, and guys like MCW and KJ on the perimeter (eventually that is) and the Sixers have a dominant defensive team. Noel has DPOY ability and that shouldn't be overlooked.

Noel is pound for pound the weakest player in the NBA he'll never be able to guard his position

Noel weighs 228, put on 20 pounds since last year, still has plenty of room to fill out, and projects to play PF next to Embiid at C. He weighs more than Ed Davis at 225, John Henson at 220, 7 pounds less than Larry Sanders at 6 11 who is considered a very good defender and is a C, and Anthony Davis who is listed at 220 (but probably weighs more to be honest). Considering he recently turned 20 and has plenty of years to grow, mature physically and put on more weight, your comment comes off as stupid.

Weight =/= strength/physicality.

[Orlwillbeback]

noel wont play enough games because he'll be injured this whole season and throughout the majority of his career. I doubt he plays more than 50% of available games during his career.

[HornetJail]

noel wont play enough games because he'll be injured this whole season and throughout the majority of his career. I doubt he plays more than 50% of available games during his career.

I think that's an exaggeration, but I see injuries happening frequently early in his career. Noel's had two serious injuries to his legs (one in high school and one at UK), with like 200 pounds on them. He's got to get to at least 225-240 to even think about adequately guarding the center position. Can his legs support that much added weight? If they can't, then his style of play would need to change drastically. Unfortunately for him, I don't know if he's going to stay healthy early in his career as he attempts to alter his physique.

[Orlwillbeback]

noel wont play enough games because he'll be injured this whole season and throughout the majority of his career. I doubt he plays more than 50% of available games during his career.

I think that's an exaggeration, but I see injuries happening frequently early in his career. Noel's had two serious injuries to his legs (one in high school and one at UK), with like 200 pounds on them. He's got to get to at least 225-240 to even think about adequately guarding the center position. Can his legs support that much added weight? If they can't, then his style of play would need to change drastically. Unfortunately for him, I don't know if he's going to stay healthy early in his career as he attempts to alter his physique.

agreed but with this guy's injury history and his active play style, i think he's going to be injured an awful lot.

[76ciology]

noel wont play enough games because he'll be injured this whole season and throughout the majority of his career. I doubt he plays more than 50% of available games during his career.

I think that's an exaggeration, but I see injuries happening frequently early in his career. Noel's had two serious injuries to his legs (one in high school and one at UK), with like 200 pounds on them. He's got to get to at least 225-240 to even think about adequately guarding the center position. Can his legs support that much added weight? If they can't, then his style of play would need to change drastically. Unfortunately for him, I don't know if he's going to stay healthy early in his career as he attempts to alter his physique.

Both statements are pure speculation.

Dr. Ryan Goodwin, Director of the Center for Pediatric Orthopaedics and Scoliosis Surgery, said he doesn’t believe an injured growth plate in high school contributed to Noel tearing his ACL in February.

“I can tell you that growth-plate injuries are, in fact, very common in children, and children can be big children all the way up through high school age,” said Goodwin. “The good news is the vast majority of growth-plate injuries heal without consequence. Children heal and they go on to grow.”

Goodwin added that although he hadn’t personally examined Noel’s knee, oftentimes an individual who suffers both a growth plate injury and a torn ACL does so because they are an active person, not because sometime is mechanically wrong.

“The vast majority are coincidental. The kid is exposing himself to injury multiple times by playing sports. If you play basketball seven days a week for however many years, you’re, unfortunately, susceptible to injury,” said Goodwin. “If you’re a high school teenager and you’ve got growth plates, you’re susceptible to a growth-plate injury. When you’re in college, you’re susceptible to ACL injuries.”

Despite believing that the injuries were unrelated to one another, Goodwin still expressed concerns about drafting a player with a torn ACL with the top pick.

“If I’m in basketball management, a growth-plate injury in high school would probably not turn me off one bit,” said Goodwin. “The ACL would be much more concerning.

Still Months Away

And with his explosiveness shown in SL, I can say that his ACL injury is fully healed.

[HornetJail]

noel wont play enough games because he'll be injured this whole season and throughout the majority of his career. I doubt he plays more than 50% of available games during his career.

I think that's an exaggeration, but I see injuries happening frequently early in his career. Noel's had two serious injuries to his legs (one in high school and one at UK), with like 200 pounds on them. He's got to get to at least 225-240 to even think about adequately guarding the center position. Can his legs support that much added weight? If they can't, then his style of play would need to change drastically. Unfortunately for him, I don't know if he's going to stay healthy early in his career as he attempts to alter his physique.

Both statements are pure speculation.

Dr. Ryan Goodwin, Director of the Center for Pediatric Orthopaedics and Scoliosis Surgery, said he doesn’t believe an injured growth plate in high school contributed to Noel tearing his ACL in February.

“I can tell you that growth-plate injuries are, in fact, very common in children, and children can be big children all the way up through high school age,” said Goodwin. “The good news is the vast majority of growth-plate injuries heal without consequence. Children heal and they go on to grow.”

Goodwin added that although he hadn’t personally examined Noel’s knee, oftentimes an individual who suffers both a growth plate injury and a torn ACL does so because they are an active person, not because sometime is mechanically wrong.

“The vast majority are coincidental. The kid is exposing himself to injury multiple times by playing sports. If you play basketball seven days a week for however many years, you’re, unfortunately, susceptible to injury,” said Goodwin. “If you’re a high school teenager and you’ve got growth plates, you’re susceptible to a growth-plate injury. When you’re in college, you’re susceptible to ACL injuries.”

Despite believing that the injuries were unrelated to one another, Goodwin still expressed concerns about drafting a player with a torn ACL with the top pick.

“If I’m in basketball management, a growth-plate injury in high school would probably not turn me off one bit,” said Goodwin. “The ACL would be much more concerning.

Still Months Away

And with his explosiveness shown in SL, I can say that his ACL injury is fully healed.

That still doesn't answer my concern about whether his body can withstand the rigors of a full NBA season. He's not surviving a full season at 215 or whatever he weighs right now, particularly since opposing defenses will be more than happy to pack the paint against Philadelphia's zero perimeter threats. Noel's going to be tossed around like a rag doll unless he puts on significant weight. A guy Noel's size probably needs to be closer to 240 if he wants to be a force, 230 if he just wants to hold his own against the average center (probably still won't match up well and wouldn't be able to do a thing offensively, but he won't be thrown around as easily). Gaining that much weight simply can't be good for anyone's knees, let alone a lanky 7 foot bean-pole with knee concerns in the present or past. This lose-lose situation is why I didn't want my team to draft him in the first place.

Seeing Noel in the Summer League playing well and looking athletic for less than ten games really doesn't mean much. The main question is whether he can survive NBA centers. If he's still this skinny, the average power forward even in this era of small ball, would flatten him.

[Mr Sixer]

Noel is pound for pound the weakest player in the NBA he'll never be able to guard his position

Noel weighs 228, put on 20 pounds since last year, still has plenty of room to fill out, and projects to play PF next to Embiid at C. He weighs more than Ed Davis at 225, John Henson at 220, 7 pounds less than Larry Sanders at 6 11 who is considered a very good defender and is a C, and Anthony Davis who is listed at 220 (but probably weighs more to be honest). Considering he recently turned 20 and has plenty of years to grow, mature physically and put on more weight, your comment comes off as stupid.

Weight =/= strength/physicality.

Lol okay first of all you said pound for pound, which directly brings weight into it. Secondly why don't you post some actual numbers of something he's lifted at the combine rather than spewing this nonsense, because for all I know he is wiry strong and can jump out of the gym and just needs to put a little more bulk in his legs for injury purposes. Reason he compliments Embiid is because due to his thin frame he is very quick for his position and will easily be able to guard the stretch 4s of the league while also guarding the paint with his shot blocking

[Mr Sixer]

noel wont play enough games because he'll be injured this whole season and throughout the majority of his career. I doubt he plays more than 50% of available games during his career.

I think that's an exaggeration, but I see injuries happening frequently early in his career. Noel's had two serious injuries to his legs (one in high school and one at UK), with like 200 pounds on them. He's got to get to at least 225-240 to even think about adequately guarding the center position. Can his legs support that much added weight? If they can't, then his style of play would need to change drastically. Unfortunately for him, I don't know if he's going to stay healthy early in his career as he attempts to alter his physique.

Well good thing his long term goal is to guard PF and he is already in the 225-240 range

[E-Balla]

Noel easy. His defensive potential is off the charts and at best he could be a new Deke. Wiggins is probably another Deng.

[HornetJail]

Noel easy. His defensive potential is off the charts and at best he could be a new Deke. Wiggins is probably another Deng.

Wiggins is probably better than Deng right now. I really hope it's Lebron mentoring him rather than... *searches Timberwolves depth chart* Corey Brewer.

[76ciology]

Noel easy. His defensive potential is off the charts and at best he could be a new Deke. Wiggins is probably another Deng.

Wiggins is probably better than Deng right now. I really hope it's Lebron mentoring him rather than... *searches Timberwolves depth chart* Corey Brewer.

Wiggins certainly has higher upside than Deng, thanks to his age and freakish athleticism. But right now, he's not better than Deng, who is more experienced and has better skillset.

If that's your assessment of Wiggins, then I think I can count your opinion as one of those casual fans who gets easily carried away by highlights on youtube rather than actual eye test or stats.