Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Offseason Preview - Kings

[Left Side Drive]

The Kings were 19-21 when Thomas, Gay, and Cousins played. Thomas doesn't come back, but they replace him with Collison and the rest of the young players will probably improve...yet, over the course of 82 games, they only win 3 more games? I don't see how that makes sense, unless you think Thomas was a HUGE piece of their success.

I didn't watch many Kings games last season but Isaiah Thomas is quite a beast. Averages of 20ppg and 6 apg. I think losing him will allow more shots for the rest of the team but his absence definitely hurts the team's overall record.

[blind prophet]

Wins have to come from somewhere, it's a zero sum game.

Go ahead and predict the win totals for all 30 teams and get back to me if you still think it's unreasonable. My point is, you could have 30 teams ALL get better and not one of them win a single more game than last year.

There is no reason barring injury the Kings cannot realistically achieve 30 wins.

If you took a poll of only people who have watched let's say 10 or more Kings games last season you'd find more estimates closer to 30 than 20.

Perhaps you have vision to be alone in your assessment if you watched that many games post the Rudy trade, that's fine, or perhaps you need to watch a few more games.

[NBA Fan 1234]

The Kings were 19-21 when Thomas, Gay, and Cousins played. Thomas doesn't come back, but they replace him with Collison and the rest of the young players will probably improve...yet, over the course of 82 games, they only win 3 more games? I don't see how that makes sense, unless you think Thomas was a HUGE piece of their success.

I didn't watch many Kings games last season but Isaiah Thomas is quite a beast. Averages of 20ppg and 6 apg. I think losing him will allow more shots for the rest of the team but his absence definitely hurts the team's overall record.

Right,but he was also a ball stopper who wasn't always the most willing to pass. I just don't see the loss of Thomas making the Kings team go from a 28-54 team (19-21 with Rudy, Cousins, and Thomas) to a 22-60 team

[jazzfan1971]

22 games? IMO they win around 30-33 games this year. Also the Jazz let wesley matthews go because Portland signed him to a big offer sheet after his rookie-season. The Jazz didnt match because it would have really hurt them salary-cap wise.



I really dont like these Off-season preview stuff from you guys. IMO you guys just state your sometimes biased opinions, there is no analysis behind it.

I think if you want a more heavy analysis based preview you probably do need to look elsewhere. I'm trying to write something more entertaining and thought provoking than informational. Last year a guy posted team reviews on jazzfanz.com. You could really tell a ton of work went into them. Each team was broken down with a great deal of analysis.

But, as I looked at his work my eyes glazed over and it was all just tl/dr for me. I've got the attention span of a gnat. And I decided that wasn't the kind of work I wanted to do. And since I'm not being paid for this, I kinda get to do what I want to do. If you don't like my work that's totally understandable. You are probably looking for something different than what I'm trying to do.

[Left Side Drive]

22 games? IMO they win around 30-33 games this year. Also the Jazz let wesley matthews go because Portland signed him to a big offer sheet after his rookie-season. The Jazz didnt match because it would have really hurt them salary-cap wise.



I really dont like these Off-season preview stuff from you guys. IMO you guys just state your sometimes biased opinions, there is no analysis behind it.

I think if you want a more heavy analysis based preview you probably do need to look elsewhere. I'm trying to write something more entertaining and thought provoking than informational. Last year a guy posted team reviews on jazzfanz.com. You could really tell a ton of work went into them. Each team was broken down with a great deal of analysis.

But, as I looked at his work my eyes glazed over and it was all just tl/dr for me. I've got the attention span of a gnat. And I decided that wasn't the kind of work I wanted to do. And since I'm not being paid for this, I kinda get to do what I want to do. If you don't like my work that's totally understandable. You are probably looking for something different than what I'm trying to do.

Personally, I like what you guys are doing. It's a great idea in times of the offseason drought. Even if it only serves as a way to initiate discussion on each team, where everyone can pitch in, it's still good.

[RIPskaterdude]

Most of us thought it would take Vivek 2 years or so to see some direction.

Pretty much you can count on Cousins long term, Jarl Thompandry's nightmare contracts, and Stauskas probably to be here for awhile.

Everything else is up in the air. Personally I hope they keep Rudy long term, or replace with another 15 million dollar talent.

This season does not matter much, I just hope they somehow improve our contract clutter long term.

With minimal changes, 30 wins is realistic if Cousins and Rudy have good years and Stauskas is a man of merit.

A great season would be 33 wins, under 30 a disappointment.

If the Kings don't win more than 30 games this year (pending injuries), you can kiss Pete D and his team goodbye.

[blind prophet]

Most of us thought it would take Vivek 2 years or so to see some direction.

Pretty much you can count on Cousins long term, Jarl Thompandry's nightmare contracts, and Stauskas probably to be here for awhile.

Everything else is up in the air. Personally I hope they keep Rudy long term, or replace with another 15 million dollar talent.

This season does not matter much, I just hope they somehow improve our contract clutter long term.

With minimal changes, 30 wins is realistic if Cousins and Rudy have good years and Stauskas is a man of merit.

A great season would be 33 wins, under 30 a disappointment.

If the Kings don't win more than 30 games this year (pending injuries), you can kiss Pete D and his team goodbye.

I'd have to say you are probably correct. Cousins will get mouthy at some point. I think Pete getting somewhere around 30 and if he is trusted to be a help to bring Rudy back or other similar leveled talent then he stays, if not its the door.

[jazzfan1971]

Wins have to come from somewhere, it's a zero sum game.

Go ahead and predict the win totals for all 30 teams and get back to me if you still think it's unreasonable. My point is, you could have 30 teams ALL get better and not one of them win a single more game than last year.

There is no reason barring injury the Kings cannot realistically achieve 30 wins.

If you took a poll of only people who have watched let's say 10 or more Kings games last season you'd find more estimates closer to 30 than 20.

Perhaps you have vision to be alone in your assessment if you watched that many games post the Rudy trade, that's fine, or perhaps you need to watch a few more games.

Last year I made predictions, what I did was look at the prior year and start from there and then make adjustments based on how I perceived the team added or subtracted talent. And I was pretty unsuccessful using that method. Floppy is doing these predictions and he's using a different method. I don't really know how well his method is going to work, but, I'm willing to give it a try based on how unsuccessful my method was.

I challenge you to predict the record of all 30 teams and see if you can beat Floppy's method on the whole. It would be fun and interesting to see.

[blind prophet]

Wins have to come from somewhere, it's a zero sum game.

Go ahead and predict the win totals for all 30 teams and get back to me if you still think it's unreasonable. My point is, you could have 30 teams ALL get better and not one of them win a single more game than last year.

There is no reason barring injury the Kings cannot realistically achieve 30 wins.

If you took a poll of only people who have watched let's say 10 or more Kings games last season you'd find more estimates closer to 30 than 20.

Perhaps you have vision to be alone in your assessment if you watched that many games post the Rudy trade, that's fine, or perhaps you need to watch a few more games.

Last year I made predictions, what I did was look at the prior year and start from there and then make adjustments based on how I perceived the team added or subtracted talent. And I was pretty unsuccessful using that method. Floppy is doing these predictions and he's using a different method. I don't really know how well his method is going to work, but, I'm willing to give it a try based on how unsuccessful my method was.

I challenge you to predict the record of all 30 teams and see if you can beat Floppy's method on the whole. It would be fun and interesting to see.

Would not be much point in me assessing 30 teams, I called most of the playoff matchups correct, some to the precise games played.

I'm simply not qualified to do so.

But the Kings are young, they have contract clutter, they have some hungry yet unproven people they must count on.

22 is not a ridiculous assessment considering those things, most would disagree who follow avidly, but it is true, there are lots of question marks.

[sonictecture]

The Kings were 19-21 when Thomas, Gay, and Cousins played. Thomas doesn't come back, but they replace him with Collison and the rest of the young players will probably improve...yet, over the course of 82 games, they only win 3 more games? I don't see how that makes sense, unless you think Thomas was a HUGE piece of their success.

I think Thomas was a huge piece of any success there was last year for the Kings. Thomas is a player that decision makers have been underestimating his whole basketball life because of his size and offensive oriented game. And all he does is out produce his competition.

I like McCallum more for the Kings over the next couple of years than Collison.

Over the last 5 years the Kings have won 28, 28, 22, 24 & 25 games. Perhaps it's not so odd that someone would predict them to win within that range with this years team as well. It seems to me the Kings are very much in a position to show us they are better before they are given the benefit of the doubt.

[NBA Fan 1234]

The Kings were 19-21 when Thomas, Gay, and Cousins played. Thomas doesn't come back, but they replace him with Collison and the rest of the young players will probably improve...yet, over the course of 82 games, they only win 3 more games? I don't see how that makes sense, unless you think Thomas was a HUGE piece of their success.

I think Thomas was a huge piece of any success there was last year for the Kings. Thomas is a player that decision makers have been underestimating his whole basketball life because of his size and offensive oriented game. And all he does is out produce his competition.

I like McCallum more for the Kings over the next couple of years than Collison.

Over the last 5 years the Kings have won 28, 28, 22, 24 & 25 games. Perhaps it's not so odd that someone would predict them to win within that range with this years team as well. It seems to me the Kings are very much in a position to show us they are better before they are given the benefit of the doubt.

Few things
-Thomas definitely did help them win (nice scorer), but he was a poor defender and he was a ball stopper / looked off the open guy quite often. At least, that's what I got from him when I watched him play. I think Collison IS a downgrade, but I think Collison + the improvement of the rest of the players (and better chemistry between Gay and Cousins) will help negate the loss of Thomas.

-I also like McCallum more than Collison. Once he gets a more consistent jumper and (hopefully) he continues to progress with his decision making on offense / running a team, he can be a nice player.

-I see them winning between 25-33 games, so the range is still somewhat close to where it's been the last few years.

[RIPskaterdude]

Not sure why so many people are stuck with the notion that IT was a main piece for the Kings. He was a very good offensive PG off the bench. IT will never be a starting PG on a championship contending team. If the Kings brought him back for 7-8 a year, then they would be stuck with basically the same team of IT, Gay and Cousins for the next few years (depending on how much and if Gay resigned). Collison wasn't brought in because he's overall a better player, but a better fit. They needed to go a different direction, and I'm sure it didn't hurt to save a little $$$ at the same time.

Someone brought up that the Kings haven't won more than 28 games in the last few years...well isn't that even more of a reason to mix it up?

Another problem with signing IT to his contract is, if you really feel like he's the 6th man on your team, is it worth it to pay him $8M a year? With him and Collison together, you're almost looking at paying someone the MAX by itself. There goes any room for adding players around them.

I have no problem with your personal offseason predictions, however I do think that trying to guess the exact win/loss total is a bit much. But to each their own, I guess.

[blind prophet]

Not sure why so many people are stuck with the notion that IT was a main piece for the Kings. He was a very good offensive PG off the bench. IT will never be a starting PG on a championship contending team. If the Kings brought him back for 7-8 a year, then they would be stuck with basically the same team of IT, Gay and Cousins for the next few years (depending on how much and if Gay resigned). Collison wasn't brought in because he's overall a better player, but a better fit. They needed to go a different direction, and I'm sure it didn't hurt to save a little $$$ at the same time.

Someone brought up that the Kings haven't won more than 28 games in the last few years...well isn't that even more of a reason to mix it up?

Another problem with signing IT to his contract is, if you really feel like he's the 6th man on your team, is it worth it to pay him $8M a year? With him and Collison together, you're almost looking at paying someone the MAX by itself. There goes any room for adding players around them.

I have no problem with your personal offseason predictions, however I do think that trying to guess the exact win/loss total is a bit much. But to each their own, I guess.

Trying to be an optimist here, Stauskas was probably the best pick and roll fella in college, put the ball in his hands some and run the two man game between him and Cousins with Rudy roaming, Evans crashing the boards, and a different fella at the pg and I'll throw the dice out there too man.

Now I would not have chosen Collison, but what I said above still applies.

[RIPskaterdude]

I think the real reason why the Kings didn't go for Payton or a PF during the draft is because they are looking to have Cousins/Gay be the 20ppg scorers, while the rest looks like this;

Collison (defender/play maker/push the ball up)
Stauskas (3 point shooter)
Gay (Scorer/defender)
PF??? (Athletic rebounder/defender/shot blocker)
Cousins

Hopefully they get their PF by the time next season starts, either through the draft or FA

[Jaylee209]

I stopped reading after you suggested for the Kings to trade Cousins for youth and picks.

[blind prophet]

I think the real reason why the Kings didn't go for Payton or a PF during the draft is because they are looking to have Cousins/Gay be the 20ppg scorers, while the rest looks like this;

Collison (defender/play maker/push the ball up)
Stauskas (3 point shooter)
Gay (Scorer/defender)
PF??? (Athletic rebounder/defender/shot blocker)
Cousins

Hopefully they get their PF by the time next season starts, either through the draft or FA

Collison from some insiders say he is not really that good of a defender, I'll reserve judgement, not qualified,,,need to see some more with my own eyes. But sure he can take the ball up the court, and a scarecrow plays better D than IT did at times, you never knew with IT sometimes he manned up just fine other times he took plays off or seemed lost.

Cousins and Rudy have aptitudes of running the offense through them, so they are play makers regardless of who is at the PG. Nik can shoot, run the pick and roll, Evans is one of the best rebounders per minute in the last 20 years or so, starting to get old, but is a sort of jedi master out there.

I'm not worried, I'm intrigued actually.

Some way we have to hose Jarl Thompandry here soon, JT may be easier to move after this season considering his buyout option.

[RIPskaterdude]

I stopped reading after you suggested for the Kings to trade Cousins for youth and picks.

Agreed. In 2016 with 2 years left on his contract and we still haven't won more than 30 games in 100 years? Definitely. But now, when he's just now starting out his max contract and becoming one of the best players in the league? No way.

[Jaylee209]

And he said for youth...Cousins is only 23 years old!

[Winsome Gerbil]

Floppymusings:
I'm going to come out and say it: The Kings should trade Cousins for picks/youth and move on. Cousins is a huge talent and can be totally unstoppable when he chooses to be. He chooses to be about twice a year. That isn't going to change. The number of other teams that haven't figured this out is shrinking. Kings should move on while there is still a buyer.

I think this is a great little project you guys got going on, but statements like these jump off the page as woefully ignorant and highlight the difficulty of trying to cover all 30 teams when some of them you haven't seen much of.

Twice a year dominant Cousins:
32.4min 22.7pts (.496 .726) 11.7reb 2.9ast 1.5stl 1.3blk 3.5TO PER:26.1
MVP candidate Griffin:
35.8min 24.1pts (.528 .715) 9.5reb 3.9ast 1.2stl 0.6blk 2.8TO PER:23.9
Third best player in the league Davis:
35.2min 20.8pts (.519 .791) 10.0reb 1.6ast 1.3stl 2.8blk 1.6TO PER:26.5
1999-00 Duncan (same age as Cousins, year after 1st title):
38.9min 23.2pts (.490 .761) 12.4reb 3.2ast 0.9stl 2.2blk 3.3TO PER:24.8

I thought I'd try to see where Cousins 2 dominant games of the seasons were, but was having a hard time picking them out. Perhaps somebody could help distinguish them for me:

10/30 30pts 14reb 1ast 2stl 2blk
11/01 24pts 10reb 4ast 3stl 2blk
11/08 35pts 9reb 1ast 4stl 1blk
11/09 33pts 12reb 0ast 1stl 1blk
11/15 26pts 13reb 2ast 0stl 3blk
11/19 27pts 12reb 3ast 4stl 2blk
11/23 23pts 19reb 7ast 1stl 0blk
11/29 25pts 9reb 6ast 0stl 3blk
12/07 28pts 7reb 3ast 2stl 3blk
12/09 32pts 19reb 3ast 3stl 1blk
12/17 30pts 13reb 6ast 3stl 0blk
12/18 28pts 7reb 6ast 1stl 0blk
12/20 27pts 8reb 5ast 2stl 0blk
12/23 24pts 14reb 1ast 2stl 2blk
12/27 27pts 17reb 5ast 2stl 0blk
12/29 29pts 14reb 3ast 1stl 1blk
01/02 33pts 14reb 2ast 2stl 1blk
01/04 26pts 11reb 2ast 4stl 0blk
01/07 35pts 13reb 2ast 1stl 2blk
01/10 24pts 14reb 6ast 3stl 1blk
01/14 33pts 13reb 2ast 2stl 1blk
01/17 22pts 17reb 1ast 0stl 1blk
02/03 25pts 16reb 4ast 0stl 1blk
02/07 31pts 16reb 3ast 0stl 1blk
02/23 27pts 9reb 5ast 1stl 5blk
03/01 21pts 17reb 3ast 0stl 3blk
03/09 28pts 20reb 3ast 1stl 1blk
03/15 25pts 14reb 2ast 4stl 1blk
03/18 24pts 14reb 3ast 1stl 0blk
03/23 32pts 12reb 4ast 2stl 1blk
03/26 32pts 15reb 8ast 2stl 2blk
03/31 35pts 14reb 3ast 1stl 2blk
04/06 28pts 10reb 3ast 1stl 2blk
04/08 24pts 14reb 1ast 2stl 2blk
04/09 30pts 12reb 2ast 3stl 0blk
04/12 32pts 12reb 5ast 2stl 2blk
04/13 35pts 15reb 6ast 1stl 3blk

so...um, little help please? Think I'm missing something on the definition of dominant.

[jazzfan1971]

As dominating as he's been it still might not be a bad idea to trade him. It all depends on the return.

For the record, I wouldn't move him since the day he signed that extention. Since then he'd have been the guy I build around. Before that day I would have been a lot more open to the idea of trading him.