Jazzfan1971 and Floppymoose's season preview - The Celtics

Post #1 » by **jazzfan1971** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:01 pm

Boston Celtics

Projected Roster
PG – Rajon Rondo, Marcus Smart, Phil Pressey
SG – Avery Bradley, Marcus Thornton, James Young
SF – Jeff Green, Evan Turner, Gerald Wallace
PF – Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, Brandon Bass
C – Tyler Zeller, Vitor Faverani, Joel Anthony

Position Battle: Center strikes me was the largest position battle. For now I have Zeller penciled in as the starter, but, I wouldn't be shocked to see Faverani or Anthony or some guy from the stands step in now and then.

Trading Block: With the draft of Marcus Smart, Rajon Rondo is officially on the trading block. He's been there unofficially for what seems like years now, but, Ainge has always opted to hang onto him. I think it makes a ton of sense to finally move him before he walks for nothing as a sign and trade is a low percentage play and Ainge is smart enough to know this.

Mystery Man: Tyler Zeller. Boston added Zeller in a salary clearing trade this summer. His stats were better his second year than his first and that could be due to natural development, or because he had a smaller role his second year allowing him to be more efficient. I'm not terribly high on Zeller and I wouldn't be surprised if he worked his way into the backup center role.

Floppymusings:
The short story is that Evan Turner isn't going to move the needle. This should be a year for the Celtics youth to get a lot of minutes together to build for the future.

Jazzfanramblings:
Back in the day I started my first foray into investing in the stock market. 3DFX was a video card maker at the time and the first company to come out with full screen anti-aliasing. They were working on a scalable, modular system for their next generation. And frankly I thought they were the ****. I pumped all my investment dollars into 3DFX. Diversify? Hah! That's for idiots that can't pick the right stocks. Well, as you might guess by the lack of 3DFX cards on the shelf at your local BestBuy, I was an idiot. To make matters worse, I refused to cut my losses and sell. Even when I'd read things like the company liquidating assets to make pay, I still desperately hung onto my stocks, preferring to have them torn from my cold dead hands rather than sell at a loss.

Sometimes you are better off cutting your losses. (oh, and diversify, don't be an idiot like me!)
Rajon Rondo reminds me of my experience with 3DFX. His value a couple years ago was fantastic. Boston could have traded him for a kingly sum at the same time they traded KG and Pierce. But, they didn't. They probably could have traded him for a decent return last season to a contender that wanted him for a playoff run. But, they held on, hoping his value would return. It didn't. I think they are now focused on preferring to have him torn from their cold dead hands rather than sell low. And that might be exactly what happens next summer. My advice to the Cs. Cut you losses, take what you can and move on.

Projected Record – 27/55

DarkAzcura · Post #2 » by **DarkAzcura** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:12 pm

Lineup is about right, but pretty much everything else is off, imo. Not too surprising, though, since you couldn't really get an answer in your thread on our forum really. Too many things are up in the air.

It's pretty clear Rondo is not on the trading block, though. Maybe he is traded at the deadline, maybe he isn't. If the Celtics are in the middle of a playoff push because of Rondo's leadership and the young guys' development, he will not be traded. Ainge loves the guy, and the only player Ainge has admitted Rondo was ever on the trading block was for Chris Paul back when he was on the Hornets. Alternatively if the Celtics are going into January several games out of the playoffs, then I'll say Rondo may be heading for the trading block. Watching the summer league and listening to Stevens talk, it's apparent (to me) the Celtics are going to try Smart as a pure combo guard off the bench for at least this season.

By the way, unless there are some chemistry issues because of Turner or Thornton, I'd be very surprised to see the Celtics only win 2 more games than they did last year considering Rondo will be back from the start and probably 100% unlike last season. There's also the continued development of Bradley and Sullinger who will be hitting their fifth and third year respectively, which historically are breakout years for players. Olynyk will continue to improve, and while Zeller is a wild card, I think he can give the Celtics 20 MPG at the center position, which is better than the nothingness the Celtics had there last year. The Celtics have also added a potential ROY candidate and two better scorers than anything they had last year other than Green and maybe Bradley. Stevens will also be hitting his second year as a head coach and rumor has it the Celtics aren't going to be directed to "tank" like they did last year (which was essentially Stevens trying to develop new skills for his guys like Sully's 3PT shot).

I really doubt there is going to be too much of a battle between Zeller and Vitor, though. Vitor hit the doghouse early last season, got injured, and was never to be seen throughout the season. I don't even know what happened honestly..he kind of just disappeared. Stevens has been noted to love the Zeller brothers all the way back to college when he tried recruiting them.

Yeah, I'd be surprised if they finished only 2 games better.

Post #3 » by **jazzfan1971** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:15 pm

I don't see how the drafting of Smart doesn't mean that Rondo is on the trading block. You can't really have both guys play together and both are too good to be bench players.

(Obviously I'm very high on Smart or I wouldn't suggest he can't come off the bench)

DarkAzcura · Post #4 » by **DarkAzcura** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:19 pm

jazzfan1971 wrote:I don't see how the drafting of Smart doesn't mean that Rondo is on the trading block. You can't really have both guys play together and both are too good to be bench players.

(Obviously I'm very high on Smart or I wouldn't suggest he can't come off the bench)

He'll get his minutes. Bench or not doesn't really matter. Rondo, Bradley, and Smart are going to play the 1 and 2 spots throughout next season. Smart is honestly the perfect guy to fit with those two considering the Celtics seem adamant in having Bradley be their starting 2 even though he is pretty small (weight not length). Having Smart play point guard and guarding twos will allow Bradley to play the 2 on offense and defend point guards, which is where he is the best. It's pretty clear the Celtics will at least try running Smart and Rondo together considering they are having him work on his 3PT shot. They think he projects to be a good 3PT shooter and that his 3PT% in college was misleading. We'll see how it works out, but at least defensively and on the break, Rondo and Smart will work out incredibly well.

Rondo being on the trading block is completely dependent on the Celtics' record heading into the new year, imo. It's too early to say whether he is officially there or not, which was my main point regarding Rondo. He could end up there and considering how much has to go right, it's a decent bet, but I'm not going there quite yet. I'll wait and see how things play out.

EDIT: Oh, I saw the post you deleted. I just want to apologize if I am coming across harshly! Your opinion on Rondo is valid, but I just disagree with it a lot. There are plenty of Celtic fans who probably (I know it) agree with you about him. I'm more on the side that Ainge is going to wait and see how the season plays out. Historically Ainge has put a ton of value on Rondo, though, so even if he becomes officially available, I'm not even sure a trade will happen because how highly Ainge values him.

The only thing I really disagree with is 27 wins. If the roster remains healthy, I feel that is their worst case scenario at this point. Too much talent (even if mediocre..mediocre talent is still better than no talent) has been added to this team along with some corrections in balance (finally added a center in Zeller and finally added a guy in the backcourt who can get to the line in Smart).

majortom71 · Post #5 » by **majortom71** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:33 pm

I don't mean to derail this thread but you brought back painful memories of owning the last of 3dfx cards.
Voodoo 5 had so much promise but alas no game studios wrote for it and it was an end of an era.

Welp...

shawn unkempt · Post #6 » by **shawn unkempt** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:33 pm

Kinda weird that you picked center for the position battle, it's by far the worst position on the team. The starting spot will be given to Zeller on day one and he won't lose it unless he really sucks. Faverani and Anthony will probably only see garbage time minutes and one of Olynyk or Sullinger will shift over to center when Zeller hits the bench.

The bigger battles will be at SG and PF. Bradley is the likely day one starter but it's the deepest position and Smart could be used as an SG as long as we have Rondo.

Olynyk and Sullinger are about equal as prospects. There will definitely be a battle there for playing time, especially if Bass is still on our roster.

Not even sure why you're calling these season previews, you didn't even touch on anything besides trading Rondo.

Post #7 » by **Froob** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:35 pm

I really kinda hope Rondo gets a no trade clause if he re-signs here. It's pretty ridiculous he's been in trade rumors for 8 years and has been linked to be traded to just about every team in the league (not even really exaggerating).

DarkAzcura · Post #8 » by **DarkAzcura** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:38 pm

shawn unkempt wrote:Kinda weird that you picked center for the position battle, it's by far the worst position on the team. The starting spot will be given to Zeller on day one and he won't lose it unless he really sucks. Faverani and Anthony will probably only see garbage time minutes and one of Olynyk or Sullinger will shift over to center when Zeller hits the bench.

The bigger battles will be at SG and PF. Bradley is the likely day one starter but it's the deepest position and Smart could be used as an SG as long as we have Rondo.

Olynyk and Sullinger are about equal as prospects. There will definitely be a battle there for playing time, especially if Bass is still on our roster.

Not even sure why you're calling these season previews, you didn't even touch on anything besides trading Rondo.

Well I'm not sure we were incredibly helpful in the thread where he asked us for help, lol. If I remember correctly, it was a lot of "it's too early..we may make moves" and such, which was true at the time.

shawn unkempt · Post #9 » by **shawn unkempt** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:50 pm

Froob wrote:I really kinda hope Rondo gets a no trade clause if he re-signs here. It's pretty ridiculous he's been in trade rumors for 8 years and has been linked to be traded to just about every team in the league (not even really exaggerating).

There have been no trade rumors at all this summer, unless you count bored fans posting their trade ideas on message boards as rumors.

KGboss · Post #10 » by **KGboss** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:12 am

shawn unkempt wrote:
Froob wrote:I really kinda hope Rondo gets a no trade clause if he re-signs here. It's pretty ridiculous he's been in trade rumors for 8 years and has been linked to be traded to just about every team in the league (not even really exaggerating).

There have been no trade rumors at all this summer, unless you count bored fans posting their trade ideas on message boards as rumors.

unless you consider tspence credible.

overall not to be harsh but this analysis is pretty lacking. Theres some trade rumors and everything. We asked you to wait and do your preview later when the roster was set. We have no idea what this roster will look like. Green, Bass, and Rondo could all be traded tomorrow and i wouldn't be surprised.

The win total seems low. This team is average at best, but it's better than last year especially in the east.

Idk. Seems premature.

Post #11 » by **jazzfan1971** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:32 am

They could all be traded at the trade deadline as well. So, you kinda have to stop waiting at some point. And since I'm doing these in order and the ball is rolling, that time is fairly fixed.

If there is something you folks would like to add to make it more complete please do so, it will only add to teh quality of the thread and everyone wins with that.

zronv7 · Post #12 » by **zronv7** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:40 am

Zeller won't start over Bass

Celtics2014 · Post #13 » by **Celtics2014** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:52 am

zronv7 wrote:Zeller won't start over Bass

Why do you think that?

Post #14 » by **165bows** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:17 am

jazzfan1971 wrote:They could all be traded at the trade deadline as well. So, you kinda have to stop waiting at some point. And since I'm doing these in order and the ball is rolling, that time is fairly fixed.

If there is something you folks would like to add to make it more complete please do so, it will only add to teh quality of the thread and everyone wins with that.

I'd agree with the comments above regarding the front court. Zeller will start almost definitely. Behind that it's really which of the PFs slide over to play C and how much. Faverani flashed a few nice skills but never put it together at all last year even though the Celtics had zero centers. Then hurt his knee and had surgery, then hit a bus in a DUI. He's still got a bit of potential but if that doesn't drop a guy in the depth charts I don't know what does.

He's got good length, touch and shot blocking ability so I hope he figures something out but I'd say there's not a ton of optimism on him.

Most of the real minutes question mark is in the backcourt. Rondo/Bradley will start, Smart will see minutes, and then the question is how do they squeeze Turner and Thornton in there. They've gone on record as at least giving Thornton a shot to earn minutes, however long that lasts.

All in all it's similar to last year in that there are a lot of decent players but few standouts, and not really well distributed.

They should be better IMO though, Rondo was flat out terrible on the court when he did play so just a return to a reasonable level will be an addition by subtraction (of last year's terrible version). Add Smart, who IMO is going to be one of the better newcomers to the Atlantic division along with Noel.

And I would say that the trade specter is a little higher and broader on this team than most.

Edit - on the Rondo trades, I disagree as well. He would be moved in a great deal, but your conclusion of the OP could have been written about Pierce and KG in 2013 as well. This team has 8 first rounders in the next four years, and their roster and cap clears up well after this year. They are in OK shape even if Rondo walks next summer.

Post #15 » by **165bows** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:42 am

I'll add a couple of minor late summer story lines.

1.) What's up with Evan Turner? They agreed to a deal a month ago, but he's not yet signed. They appear to be waiting on something though likely minor.

2.) Bogans' deal. Clocks ticking on $5m in unguaranteed salary because of their roster/tax limits.

3.) The tax. They are currently over, but likely waive Bogans and 1-3 others. Then they have to add in Turner while staying under. They don't need to make a move beyond that, but based on reports they'd like a bit more flexibility.

4.) Bass, Thornton, Wallace, Anthony. Tough to find too many minutes, and they have some modest to minimal utility in descending order.

5.) Any buyouts? Bogans, Joel Anthony, perhaps.

humblebum · Post #16 » by **humblebum** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:45 am

Smart making Rondo trade bait is like saying Ennis and Thomas make Dragic trade bait. Smart is a rookie and though I love the talent, I don't think his arrival effects Rondo at all. If he can't coexist with Rondo, that just means he's not all that good. I think they'll work fine together.

Rondo-Bradley is the key duo on the team. First time these guys have been healthy together in a long while and they have great chemistry.

Green is locked in at SF. But there should be either a trade or intense competition behind him with Wallace and Turner (who's signing seems to point to some type of trade on the horizon... Or he's simply this years Jordan Crawford).

At PF the team certainly HOPES that Sullinger wins the job but he'll likely have to be head and shoulders better than Brandon Bass to win the starting spot. Bass has improved a ton as a defender under Stevens and he has solid chemistry with Rondo in pick and pop.

At center Faverani is a complete wildcard and though I've not been overly impressed with Zeller he fits the mold of an uptempo center who can pick and pop with Rondo. My feeling is that Olynyk becomes the de facto 3rd big as he's able to sub either position.

Overall I think you're wrong on Rondo being dealt and the low win total. They'll be in the mid 30s.

RollingWave · Post #17 » by **RollingWave** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:16 am

Evan Turner has quite consistently moved the needle in the last few years.. just not in the direction most teams would like.

In the east I guess it's foolish to count out anyone that's not out right tanking, and they do have enough experience 1 through 3 to maybe make a high 30 low 40 win team happen in that division, but Rondo has to really REALLY revert to peak Rondo, which hasn't been seen in nearly 5 years now.

KGboss · Post #18 » by **KGboss** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:15 pm

RollingWave wrote:Evan Turner has quite consistently moved the needle in the last few years.. just not in the direction most teams would like.

In the east I guess it's foolish to count out anyone that's not out right tanking, and they do have enough experience 1 through 3 to maybe make a high 30 low 40 win team happen in that division, but Rondo has to really REALLY revert to peak Rondo, which hasn't been seen in nearly 5 years now.

5 years?

you just made me spit out my coffee.

check out rondo in the 2012 ECF the season before his injury and tell me the truth now.

Post #19 » by **Froob** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:21 pm

RollingWave wrote:Evan Turner has quite consistently moved the needle in the last few years.. just not in the direction most teams would like.

In the east I guess it's foolish to count out anyone that's not out right tanking, and they do have enough experience 1 through 3 to maybe make a high 30 low 40 win team happen in that division, but Rndo has to really REALLY revert to peak Rondo, which hasn't been seen in nearly 5 years now.

Did I sleep through like 4 years last night?

MNister · Post #20 » by **MNister** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:32 pm

I believe that Marcus Smart was a great pick and I believe Stevens will be a great coach. Similarly, Rondo still have lots to contribute. Could use some shooting in their starting unit, but Boston is further along in their rebuild than I like to admit (MN sports fan still bitter about New England/Boston stealing KG, Ortiz, Moss etc). Especially with all those picks they have. Darn.