Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Raptors

[floppymoose]

I agree with OP only thing is though is that only a Raptors fan would know how much we improved with these players we got in the off-season.

I feel ya. When I just look at the Raptors in isolation I feel the same way. One thing to note is that the model I'm using thinks that this year's Raptors are similar to last year's in quality, and yet predicts 4 fewer wins than it did last year. I think this is because the east got better plus the east got more parity in the upper half (specifically Miami is still a decent team despite getting worse), and this is making wins past 40 harder to come by. So even if the Raptors are better than last season, you might still not see 50 wins.

[C_Money]

LOL okay if we get less than 50 wins it will be a disappointing season. 50 wins isn't even that great. You still have 32 losses and that gets you to about the 7th seed in the west. Shouldn't be that hard to do with the depth we have this year.

[Left Side Drive]

We definitely going for at least 50 or that's what the fans want. Winning the Atlantic is possible at around 45 wins though. Still I'm fairly sure Raps can win more than 45 since our young core will show signs of improvement and the belief that the team is capable of competing will give our squad the confidence to surpass their record from last season.

[Meeksology]

I know some of yall raps fans are just joking but saying 50 wins or bust is kind of a joke in itself. For me I could care less if we got 45 wins, as long as we make it to the second round. Anything less than making it to the second round I would consider us regressing.

[Tacoma]

I agree with OP only thing is though is that only a Raptors fan would know how much we improved with these players we got in the off-season. ...

This logic doesn't really work because fans of other teams can say the same thing that they know their team best, that they're better because....blah, blah. Teams have to play each other, so any improvements are relative.

I agree with Jazzfan's analysis and also add that, besides JV, another key player will be Lowry. I expected him to have a career year in a contract year and he did. The question is can he keep it up after signing the contract of his life?

DeRozan may have been the Raptors' lone All Star last year but Lowry was real leader of this team. If he regresses back to his career norm, the Raptors my not be able to repeat last year's success - unless JV has a breakout season.

[tayottt]

How can they decrease in wins when they lost no players of note and actually added to their depth? Marginal improvement from Derozan, Ross, and Jonas makes the Raps project to about 50 wins.

I also like they're off season additions. They got Nougeira and Williams for nothing and added James Johnson as a versatile defender for Joe Johnson types. Masai continues to do a solid job.

[DG88]

How can they decrease in wins when they lost no players of note and actually added to their depth? Marginal improvement from Derozan, Ross, and Jonas makes the Raps project to about 50 wins.

I also like they're off season additions. They got Nougeira and Williams for nothing and added James Johnson as a versatile defender for Joe Johnson types. Masai continues to do a solid job.

It's more so because there is more parity in the East this year then last year.

[tayottt]

How can they decrease in wins when they lost no players of note and actually added to their depth? Marginal improvement from Derozan, Ross, and Jonas makes the Raps project to about 50 wins.

I also like they're off season additions. They got Nougeira and Williams for nothing and added James Johnson as a versatile defender for Joe Johnson types. Masai continues to do a solid job.

It's more so because there is more parity in the East this year then last year.

I've heard a few people make this claim that there is more parity in the East. How so? Even if we assume that the projected top 8 teams in the East got better overall, how much does that really count for? Other than draft picks the only notable additions coming from outside the East were Pau Gasol, Mirotic, Meeks, Frye, Marion, Calderon, and Mike Miller. Are any of these guys so good that they would make the East drastically more competitive? I don't think so. It seems to me that the deck was reshuffled a bit with Lebron, Pierce, Deng, and Lance switching teams but that type of movement in divisions outside of the Atlantic doesn't really matter.

The Raptors were 20-10 post-all star. Barring significant injury, even with a marginally tougher East they should be expected to win 50 games. Do not forget, the Atlantic is weak! Perhaps there is some sticker shock associated with the Raptors (a franchise that has NEVER won 50 games) reaching that number, but they should be capable as long as they continue to build upon what they had last year (which shouldn't be hard considering their continuity).

[Zachbretton]

You are aware they can't be 6th seed if they win the Atlantic. Plus with your projections and rankings, they're the ones to win the Atlantic.

I see these guys doing better than 45, because if so we'll have the saddest division in the league.

I see the raps in a 45-55 range and the nets in the 40-50 range.

You guys have to factor in division play and conference play, teams like the raps won't be low 40's team unless bad injuries happen.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[floppymoose]

Other than draft picks the only notable additions coming from outside the East were Pau Gasol, Mirotic, Meeks, Frye, Marion, Calderon, and Mike Miller.

That list is strangely incomplete.

[floppymoose]

You are aware they can't be 6th seed if they win the Atlantic. Plus with your projections and rankings, they're the ones to win the Atlantic.

You are right. I didn't mean to say 6th seed, but rather 6th best record in the east. I do think they'll win the atlantic.

[Kabookalu]

It seems to be only me but I'm content with Chuck Hayes as our backup C for now. We had one of the better benches in the league already last year, he's not exactly hampering us. Not saying our bench performance is a result of Hayes, but there's so much that you can expect out of bench players, especially ones that are supposed to be your 9th best player. For the most part he does his job well. He's our best post defender and really knows how to play team defense well, better than Jonas (can't hanker on him too much here because he's young still).

I don't see our immediate needs as filling gaps, but more improving what we already have. We play defense, we play good team offense, we just lack starpower. Unless we're getting Durant we can only hope DeRozan or Jonas takes that next step into stardom.

[KD35Brah]

When is OKC up for your Season Previews?

[J-Roc]

I almost don't mind the low expectations of 6th because this franchise is terrible with meeting high expectations. But, what a joke. Anything less than 3rd is a disappointment. Even a top seed is there for the taking. Fans should have higher expectations than the rest of the league.

[Liver_Pooty]

At least you guys weren't predicted to win less than 30 games like Charlotte.

[hands11]

Pretty much agree on the prediction. Raps stayed pat but the East is a little tighter.

No secret this is in line with my view since I have been posting this for over a month.

I think the Raps will fight hard and they do have a chance to do better if Valanciunas and DeRozan have huge years, but they weren't better then a older injured BRK last year and BRK projects to be a lot better this year.

45-48 wins I think is their range.

But teams better bring it. Because TOR will bring effort.

[hands11]

How can they decrease in wins when they lost no players of note and actually added to their depth? Marginal improvement from Derozan, Ross, and Jonas makes the Raps project to about 50 wins.

I also like they're off season additions. They got Nougeira and Williams for nothing and added James Johnson as a versatile defender for Joe Johnson types. Masai continues to do a solid job.

It's more so because there is more parity in the East this year then last year.

I've heard a few people make this claim that there is more parity in the East. How so? Even if we assume that the projected top 8 teams in the East got better overall, how much does that really count for? Other than draft picks the only notable additions coming from outside the East were Pau Gasol, Mirotic, Meeks, Frye, Marion, Calderon, and Mike Miller. Are any of these guys so good that they would make the East drastically more competitive? I don't think so. It seems to me that the deck was reshuffled a bit with Lebron, Pierce, Deng, and Lance switching teams but that type of movement in divisions outside of the Atlantic doesn't really matter.

The Raptors were 20-10 post-all star. Barring significant injury, even with a marginally tougher East they should be expected to win 50 games. Do not forget, the Atlantic is weak! Perhaps there is some sticker shock associated with the Raptors (a franchise that has NEVER won 50 games) reaching that number, but they should be capable as long as they continue to build upon what they had last year (which shouldn't be hard considering their continuity).

Well

Its all based on speculation but..

MIA can still be competitive while CLE got tons better. That gets up wins.

BRK is going to be a lot better with D WIll and Lopez healthy and added younger legs. That eat win in division

WIZ added depth when they had pretty much none all year until Miller and Gooden showed up. Thats huge

CHI should be solid as last year with a chance to improve if D Rose can score 14pts a game

And NY is going to be better. They were so dysfunctional last year. Amare actually played really well to end the year. Melo is in better shape. The team will be more united and motivated this year.

IND will lose more for sure but they do still have pieces to not be a complete door mate.

The ATL DIV will be tougher this year. TOR fans are always talking about their record after Rudy left, well look at BRK after their 10-20 start They went 30-18 or .625 and tanked at least 3 games to end the season. That projected to 51-56 wins. And thats without Lopez and D Will on ankles he have problems walking on. Well D Will is all fixed up now.

The ATL DIV is better then last year. Even BOS will be tougher if they keep Rondo

As fans of a team, well all want our teams to do the best given a range of outcomes that are reasonable. They can involve under projecting other teams and over projecting our own. Its a change we all face. Me included. And at the end of the day, we are also projecting injuries, new coaches, etc.

I try to stick mostly to the basics. Players that are good when healthy tend to return to being good when healthy. Well that D Will and Lopez. Bones spurs and cleaning up a floating piece of bone in his ankles isn't ACL surgery. It should be obvious this will have a big impact on his play.

[PopAGat]

Stiemsma is the backup C

[Kevin Willis]

It's more so because there is more parity in the East this year then last year.

I've heard a few people make this claim that there is more parity in the East. How so? Even if we assume that the projected top 8 teams in the East got better overall, how much does that really count for? Other than draft picks the only notable additions coming from outside the East were Pau Gasol, Mirotic, Meeks, Frye, Marion, Calderon, and Mike Miller. Are any of these guys so good that they would make the East drastically more competitive? I don't think so. It seems to me that the deck was reshuffled a bit with Lebron, Pierce, Deng, and Lance switching teams but that type of movement in divisions outside of the Atlantic doesn't really matter.

The Raptors were 20-10 post-all star. Barring significant injury, even with a marginally tougher East they should be expected to win 50 games. Do not forget, the Atlantic is weak! Perhaps there is some sticker shock associated with the Raptors (a franchise that has NEVER won 50 games) reaching that number, but they should be capable as long as they continue to build upon what they had last year (which shouldn't be hard considering their continuity).

Well

Its all based on speculation but..

MIA can still be competitive while CLE got tons better. That gets up wins.

BRK is going to be a lot better with D WIll and Lopez healthy and added younger legs. That eat win in division

WIZ added depth when they had pretty much none all year until Miller and Gooden showed up. Thats huge

CHI should be solid as last year with a chance to improve if D Rose can score 14pts a game

And NY is going to be better. They were so dysfunctional last year. Amare actually played really well to end the year. Melo is in better shape. The team will be more united and motivated this year.

IND will lose more for sure but they do still have pieces to not be a complete door mate.

The ATL DIV will be tougher this year. TOR fans are always talking about their record after Rudy left, well look at BRK after their 10-20 start They went 30-18 or .625 and tanked at least 3 games to end the season. That projected to 51-56 wins. And thats without Lopez and D Will on ankles he have problems walking on. Well D Will is all fixed up now.

The ATL DIV is better then last year. Even BOS will be tougher if they keep Rondo

As fans of a team, well all want our teams to do the best given a range of outcomes that are reasonable. They can involve under projecting other teams and over projecting our own. Its a change we all face. Me included. And at the end of the day, we are also projecting injuries, new coaches, etc.

I try to stick mostly to the basics. Players that are good when healthy tend to return to being good when healthy. Well that D Will and Lopez. Bones spurs and cleaning up a floating piece of bone in his ankles isn't ACL surgery. It should be obvious this will have a big impact on his play.

I have to respectfully disagree.

Miami was having issues with Lebron last year and couldn't catch Indiana who were imploding. They might make the playoffs but they're giving up a ton of wins. If this does become Bosh's team you have to look at his history of being the man in the past. Wade is not the same Wade. Both Cleveland and Miami will need to gel with completely different teams. Cleveland even has a new coach. Cleveland will not gain all the wins that Miami loses.

DWill and Lopez have a history of injuries. Plus they lose Livingston, Blatche and big game Pierce. If their younger players were starter material on a good team then maybe but they're not. They might make the playoffs but they're giving up wins. They also have a new coach.

Wiz I agree. They will be solid.

Chi I agree. I think they will win more games than last year.

NY can be better and they can equally be worse. They also didn't have Bargnani playing for a portion of the season. Subtraction by addition if he's healthy this year. They lost Chandler so they don't have someone to erase bad rotations.

IND will not only lose games they might not make the playoffs. You have to make George Hill BE the pg. Stephenson and PG could do some of that last year. They might fall very hard.

ATL will be better. Boston may be slightly better but there were so bad last year...

Tor won't improve much and they will be the same as they were last season. I like your notes about the new coaches, players, injuries and such but overall there's nothing that suggests the conference is greatly improved to the point that all status quo teams will have a reduced win total.

[Rhythm043]

How are the Raptors not exciting. I stopped reading there.