Raw plus/minus for 93-94, 94-95, 95-96 seasons

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Mookie continues to have WTF level numbers. He had it in the late '90s RAPM, and he seems to still have it hear. It's definitely a cognitive dissonance moment for me, because it just feels like it has to be inflated somehow. It's one thing to see some of Stockton's numbers and say "See he was really legit", but I don't know if I've seen one thread on the board focused on Mookie in all the time I've been here. He was basically forgotten other than his fun name.

The Pearl Jam knew it all along...

[Gregoire]

Сould anybody adjust and integrate these RAPM of 94-96 to Doctor MJ Normalized & Scaled RAPM Chronology Spreadsheet?

[E-Balla]

Сould anybody adjust and integrate these RAPM of 94-96 to Doctor MJ Normalized & Scaled RAPM Chronology Spreadsheet?

There is no RAPM for these years yet. There probably won't be for a while.

[ceiling raiser]

Not a league-wide update, but I recently got the 77-78 through 87-88 Sixers Media guides in the mail, so I grabbed everything that seemed useful:

http://www50.zippyshare.com/v/90023599/file.html

Apologies for the glare. Could've scanned, but didn't want to ruin the spine of the books. I included a txt file in the main folder with clarifications.

[Dipper 13]

Not a league-wide update, but I recently got the 77-78 through 87-88 Sixers Media guides in the mail, so I grabbed everything that seemed useful:

http://www50.zippyshare.com/v/90023599/file.html

Apologies for the glare. Could've scanned, but didn't want to ruin the spine of the books. I included a txt file in the main folder with clarifications.

1982-83 Moses Malone

+15.6 On/Off
+8.1 Net ORtg
-7.5 Net DRtg


viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1197732

Certainly should have been ranked higher than #24 in the RealGM peaks project.

[Dipper 13]

Based on the plus/minus data, Sixers Barkley looks solid on defense until the last two years (1991/1992)

1985: -0.9
1986: -2.3
1987: -4.8
1988: +1.4
1989: -0.4
1990: +0.6

6 Year Average: -1.1 Net DRtg

[Doctor MJ]

Not a league-wide update, but I recently got the 77-78 through 87-88 Sixers Media guides in the mail, so I grabbed everything that seemed useful:

http://www50.zippyshare.com/v/90023599/file.html

Apologies for the glare. Could've scanned, but didn't want to ruin the spine of the books. I included a txt file in the main folder with clarifications.

1982-83 Moses Malone

+15.6 On/Off
+8.1 Net ORtg
-7.5 Net DRtg


viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1197732

Certainly should have been ranked higher than #24 in the RealGM peaks project.

I'm actually confused by your numbers, maybe you could give your methods.

My calculations for Moses in '83:
On Court: +11.8
Off Court = -1.1
On/Off = +12.9

And teammates:
Mo Cheeks: +13.6
Julius Erving: +11.3

To me it's certainly not unimpressive for Moses, but just based on my numbers are wouldn't even think of trying to say that that he's been massively underrated.

Incidentally, I'm really interested to see Cheeks' data. When I've watched late '70s 76ers games, he's always the guy who seems more impressive than the box score suggests. He just pops right out to you.

[Doctor MJ]

Based on the plus/minus data, Sixers Barkley looks solid on defense until the last two years (1991/1992)

1985: -0.9
1986: -2.3
1987: -4.8
1988: +1.4
1989: -0.4
1990: +0.6

6 Year Average: -1.1 Net DRtg

How are you splitting by offense vs defense? Are you taking the total points divided by minutes while he plays and comparing to the total points divided by minutes when he doesn't play?

[Dipper 13]

I'm actually confused by your numbers, maybe you could give your methods.

viewtopic.php?p=41029956#p41029956

The 4th column is the +/- per 48 minutes. The next column is Per 100 possessions where I did the conversion. The 94 Spurs played at a 90.1 pace (possessions per 48 minutes). So I multiplied the Per 48 min * 100 / (team pace ). 8.5 * 100 / 90.1 = +9.4 per 100 possessions.



Moses Malone

Minutes Played: 2922

Plus/Minus: +720


Sixers Team (Total)

Pace: 102.7

Minutes Played: 3966

Plus/Minus: +629

[Dipper 13]

How are you splitting by offense vs defense? Are you taking the total points divided by minutes while he plays and comparing to the total points divided by minutes when he doesn't play?

Instead of point differential, just plug in team points scored (ORtg) or team points allowed (DRtg). Harvey Pollack kept track of both ends for the entire Sixers roster in his yearbooks, and all the team data is on basketball-reference.


You can see the charts in this thread below (in spoilers).

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1344019

[Dipper 13]

My calculations for Moses in '83:

He looks even better in 1984-85. Perhaps next time he will crack the top 20 in the peaks project.

+21.6 On/Off
+18.8 Net ORtg (116.1 On Court)
-2.8 Net DRtg

[colts18]

Here is the data for the 83 Sixers:

Code: Select all

         On   Off   Net
Malone   11.5   -4.1   15.6
Cheeks   12.8   -1.4   14.1
Erving   11.4   1.1   10.3
Toney   10.8   1.7   9.1
B. Jones   13.6   2.6   11.0
Iavaroni   8.1   7.0   1.1
C. Johnson   2.9   8.4   -5.4
Richardson   0.8   12.7   -11.9



Offense (O Rating)

Code: Select all

   On   Off   Net
Malone   110.5   102.3   8.2
Cheeks   109.4   106.5   2.9
Erving   111.1   103.9   7.2
Toney   111.2   103.6   7.6
B. Jones   113.8   104.0   9.7
Iavaroni   105.2   110.4   -5.2
C. Johnson   100.8   109.9   -9.1
Richardson   104.2   111.6   -7.4


Defense:

Code: Select all

   On    Off   Net
Malone   98.9   106.4   -7.4
Cheeks   96.7   107.9   -11.2
Erving   99.7   102.8   -3.1
Toney   100.3   101.8   -1.5
B. Jones   100.2   101.5   -1.3
Iavaroni   97.2   103.5   -6.3
C. Johnson   97.9   101.5   -3.6
Richardson   103.4   98.9   4.5


Cheeks looked good on defense. I will be interested to see if that holds up during other years.

[Dipper 13]

Cheeks looked good on defense.

One of the best ever at applying full court pressure on the opposing point guard.

[colts18]

Here is more plus/minus for the Sixers. This is for the 80-82 seasons where they lost in the finals, lost in the ECF, then lost in the finals.


Net Plus/Minus:

80

Code: Select all

   On   Off   Net
B. Jones   8.0   -0.5   8.4
Cheeks   5.4   1.5   3.8
Erving   4.9   2.0   3.0
Mix   5.8   3.0   2.8
Bibby   3.6   4.6   -1.0
C. Jones   2.5   7.6   -5.1
Dawkins   2.5   6.8   -4.3
Hollins   5.5   3.7   1.8
Collins   2.7   4.5   -1.8


81

Code: Select all

   On   Off   Net
B. Jones   12.8   2.0   10.8
Cheeks   9.0   5.2   3.8
Hollins   9.3   5.4   3.9
Dawkins   8.1   6.9   1.3
Erving   5.7   12.4   -6.7
Mix   9.6   6.5   3.1
C. Jones   4.6   13.3   -8.7
Toney   6.8   8.1   -1.3
Richardson   4.1   9.2   -5.1


82

Code: Select all

   On   Off   Net
Erving   8.6   -1.4   10.0
Cheeks   7.9   1.8   6.1
Hollins   8.2   2.2   6.0
B. Jones   7.5   3.3   4.2
C. Jones   5.9   5.2   0.8
Dawkins   8.4   4.6   3.8
Toney   4.7   6.5   -1.8
Bantom   5.8   5.6   0.2
Richardson   -0.6   7.9   -8.5

Here is offense using O Rating (Positive Net number is good):

80

Code: Select all

   On   Off   Net
B. Jones   107.5   102.2   5.3
Cheeks   104.0   107.0   -3.0
Erving   105.3   104.4   0.9
Mix   109.5   102.1   7.4
Bibby   106.6   103.3   3.3
C. Jones   101.8   112.3   -10.5
Dawkins   103.2   108.2   -5.0
Hollins   102.7   105.6   -2.8
Collins   103.9   105.4   -1.4


81

Code: Select all

   On   Off   Net
B. Jones   108.9   105.1   3.8
Cheeks   107.4   106.4   1.0
Hollins   108.1   105.7   2.4
Dawkins   105.2   109.1   -4.0
Erving   106.9   107.4   -0.5
Mix   108.4   106.3   2.1
C. Jones   103.7   113.5   -9.8
Toney   107.6   106.6   1.0
Richardson   105.5   107.8   -2.3


82

Code: Select all

   On   Off   Net
Erving   112.3   103.1   9.2
Cheeks   110.2   108.5   1.6
Hollins   111.4   107.1   4.3
B. Jones   110.1   109.0   1.1
C. Jones   109.2   110.2   -1.0
Dawkins   107.4   110.4   -3.0
Toney   107.8   111.2   -3.5
Bantom   106.4   110.6   -4.2
Richardson   107.7   110.2   -2.5


Here is defense using D rating (Negative Net number is good):

80

Code: Select all

   On    Off   D rating Net
B. Jones   99.5   102.6   -3.1
Cheeks   98.6   105.5   -6.8
Erving   100.4   102.4   -2.0
Mix   103.7   99.2   4.6
Bibby   103.1   98.7   4.3
C. Jones   99.3   104.7   -5.4
Dawkins   100.7   101.4   -0.7
Hollins   97.2   101.9   -4.6
Collins   101.3   100.9   0.4


81

Code: Select all

   On    Off   D rating Net
B. Jones   96.1   103.1   -7.0
Cheeks   98.4   101.3   -2.9
Hollins   98.8   100.3   -1.5
Dawkins   97.0   102.3   -5.2
Erving   101.2   95.0   6.2
Mix   98.9   99.8   -1.0
C. Jones   99.1   100.3   -1.1
Toney   100.7   98.5   2.2
Richardson   101.4   98.6   2.8


82

Code: Select all

   On    Off   D rating Net
Erving   103.7   104.5   -0.8
Cheeks   102.2   106.8   -4.5
Hollins   103.2   104.9   -1.7
B. Jones   102.5   105.6   -3.1
C. Jones   103.2   105.0   -1.8
Dawkins   99.1   105.8   -6.8
Toney   103.1   104.7   -1.6
Bantom   100.6   105.0   -4.4
Richardson   108.4   102.3   6.0


Notes:
-That 1981 -6.7 Net Plus/Minus number for Dr. J is brutal. That also happened to be the only year he won an MVP in the NBA
-His negative rating came solely based on defense
-Dr. J put up average O rating numbers in 80 and 81 before having a really good 1982
-Bobby Jones and Cheeks put up some good defensive numbers

[lorak]

Thank you fpliii! Here's my take on several players based on the data you provided:

• Dr J

Code: Select all

YEAR   MIN   ORTG   DRTG   NET
1976-77   2940   4,1   -1,9   6,0
1977-78   2429   1,1   0,5   0,6
1978-79   2802   0,6   0,7   -0,1
1979-80   2812   0,9   -2,0   3,0
1980-81   2874   -0,5   6,2   -6,7
1981-82   2789   9,2   -0,8   10,0
1982-83   2421   7,2   -3,1   10,3
1983-84   2683   7,0   2,6   4,4
1984-85   2535   -1,3   1,9   -3,2
1985-86   2474   4,9   0,3   4,6
1986-87   1918   0,4   4,2   -3,8


I don’t like what I see here ;] Late 70s numbers might be explained by bad team fit or knees, but ’80 and – especially - ’81 (WTF happened here?) seasons also don’t look good. Around +10 net in his two best years is very good result, but is that enough to be considered top 15 player of all time?

Erving also doesn’t look that impressive on defense as I thought. Definitely wasn’t liability on that end of the floor, but also nothing special here (whathis STL and BLK numbers might suggest), he looks more like around average defender.

Overall I’m very disappointed with Doc’s numbers and I would have to reconsider my opinion about him and rank him lower.

• Barkley

Code: Select all

YEAR   MIN   ORTG   DRTG   NET
1984-85   2347   0,7   -1,2   1,9
1985-86   2952   8,2   -2,3   10,6
1986-87   2740   3,2   -4,7   7,9
1987-88   3170   4,2   1,4   2,7
1988-89   3088   10,6   -0,4   11,0
1989-90   3085   8,9   0,6   8,3
1990-91   2498   11,9   3,1   8,8
1991-92   2881   14,3   8,3   6,0
            
1993-94   2298   ?   ?   6,8
1994-95   2382   ?   ?   6,8
1995-96   2632   ?   ?   7,8
1996-97   2065   ?   ?   6,4
1997-98   2245   ?   ?   6,8
1998-99   1522   ?   ?   5,9
1999-00   620   ?   ?   0,5



(note: for the sake of consistency from ’97 to ’14 on/off net is calculated the same way as for seasons prior to ’97, so using team pace from basketball-reference, team and player minutes, team and opponents points and player raw +/-)

That’s basically whole Barkley’s career except of ’93 – what probably was his the best season, but I think not that much better than his peak in Phily.

What we see here is that at the beginning of his career Barkley had positive influence on defense. He regressed later, when was demotivated with bad team situation and gained weight. Injuries also are important factor here, especially in mid/early 90s.

Offensively it’s exactly what was expected: Sir Charles was amazing on that end of the floor, but most of his career he wasn’t that great overall player, because of his defense. I think talent was definitely there to consistently play at least ok defense, but his attitude was his biggest enemy. He and Shaq are IMO two the most wasted talents in last 30 years. With better work ethic O’Neal would have been arguably GOAT and Barkley easily top10 player ever.

• Bobby Jones

Code: Select all

YEAR   MIN   ORTG   DRTG   NET
1978-79   2304   0,7   -2,7   3,4
1979-80   2125   5,3   -3,1   8,4
1980-81   2046   3,8   -7,0   10,8
1981-82   2181   1,1   -3,1   4,2
1982-83   1749   9,7   -1,3   11,0
1983-84   1761   5,5   -2,1   7,6
1984-85   1633   8,4   -2,0   10,4
1985-86   1519   1,1   -2,7   3,8


I considered Jones as a little bit overrated player, but these numbers will definitely change may opinion about him. He basically looks like Manu, but with better balance between offense and defense. Really nothing bad I can tell here about Jones. Rosters and team strategy changed but his impact was still there on BOTH ends of the floor until very last season of his career. VERY impressive.

• Cheeks

Code: Select all

YEAR   MIN   ORTG   DRTG   NET
1978-79   2409   -3,1   -2,6   -0,5
1979-80   2623   -3,0   -6,8   3,8
1980-81   2415   1,0   -2,9   3,8
1981-82   2498   1,6   -4,5   6,1
1982-83   2465   2,9   -11,2   14,1
1983-84   2494   5,6   0,1   5,5
1984-85   2616   10,4   -3,6   14,1
1985-86   3270   13,8   -6,5   20,3
1986-87   2624   0,9   -1,7   2,6
1987-88   2871   0,5   2,0   -1,4
1988-89   2298   5,0   7,1   -2,1


You were thinking that Blaylock’s numbers were impressive? Then look at Cheeks’! Great defensive point guard who also was good (and sometimes VERY good) on offense. And his ’86 on/off net is one of the best results among all players with +/- data available. That’s basically peak KG or LeBron territory and seems like it wasn’a a fluke, because in ’85 or ’83 Cheeks’ net was also great.

• Caldwell Jones

Code: Select all

YEAR   MIN   ORTG   DRTG   NET
1976-77   2023   -7,9   -9,4   1,5
1977-78   1636   -2,6   -0,3   -2,3
1978-79   2171   -2,5   -5,8   3,3
1979-80   2771   -10,5   -5,4   -5,1
1980-81   2639   -9,8   -1,1   -8,7
1981-82   2446   -1,0   -1,8   0,8


Probably one of the worst offensive players ever and sometimes even his good/very good defense wasn’t enough to make him player with overall positive impact.

• Moses

Code: Select all

YEAR   MIN   ORTG   DRTG   NET
1982-83   2922   8,2   -7,4   15,6
1983-84   2613   10,4   7,1   3,3
1984-85   2957   18,8   -2,8   21,7
1985-86   2706   8,9   1,8   7,2
1993-94   618   -7,1   -2,1   -5,0


Very inconsistent results year by year, so I’m not sure what to think about them. But no doubt Moses was great on offense and his +18.8 ortg and net +21.7 in ’85 is GOAT level stuff. But defensively there’s a lot of noise. In one year he looks like all defensive level center, while very next one like the worst defender in the NBA. Any thoughts?

[ceiling raiser]

Thank you fpliii! Here's my take on several players based on the data you provided:

Thanks for the analysis to you and everybody.

In our PM conversation you noted:

Just imagine how many of Shane Battiers or Rasheed Wallaces from the 60s we are missing, because of lack of footage and more detailed statistics.

and I agreed with you. My two questions:

1) Do you think Cheeks could be such a player?

2) Do you think there are any such interesting players in the 93-94, 94-95, 95-96 datasets?

[colts18]

Can anyone confirm if Moses +18.8 Net O rating in 1985 is the best we have recorded? The best I've seen so far is Steve Nash in 2005 with a +17.3 Net O rating. Moses offensive numbers confirm what we know of him. It also shows that the Houston offensive dropoff without him was no fluke.

[lorak]

Thank you fpliii! Here's my take on several players based on the data you provided:

Thanks for the analysis to you and everybody.

In our PM conversation you noted:

Just imagine how many of Shane Battiers or Rasheed Wallaces from the 60s we are missing, because of lack of footage and more detailed statistics.

and I agreed with you. My two questions:

1) Do you think Cheeks could be such a player?

2) Do you think there are any such interesting players in the 93-94, 94-95, 95-96 datasets?

I need to do more research about Cheeks, but yes, so far everything indicate he was such player.

From '94 to '96 such players are also mostly better on defense, what isn't surprise, because box score recognizes offensive impact quite good and struggles to properly evaluate defense, so players with good/very good defensive impact are usually missed by most fans. Among interesting players from '94-'96 we already discussed Blaylock or McMillan. But there are others:

- Bo Outlaw, who probably was awful offensively, yet his net on/of during these three seasons is +12.1, +10.5 and +8.4. And that's not a fluke as in '97 his net is +14.8, +3.1 in '98 and +11.6 in '00 (in 99 he didn't play much)

- Shawn Bradley isn't as impressive as Outlaw, but also looks quite good

- Rik Smits might be argued as the best Pacers player

- even old Sabonis looks VERY good

- Manute Bol has some crazy results on defense (several GOAT like -17 or -14 drtg!)

- Mitch Richmond, who I see as at least equal to Pierce and now I have some data backing it up: +10.3 in '95, +10.2 in 06, +10.1 in '97 and +9.7 in '98

and honorable mention:

- Penny ;] yes, I know, he is well known as great player, but I think most people don't realize how really great he was before injuries destroyed him. As a rookie he had +5.2 net and then +12.1 in '95, + 17.1 in '96 and +12 in '97. What a sad story we lost such great player just when he entered his prime. And he was not only MVP level impact guy, but also beautiful to watch.

Can anyone confirm if Moses +18.8 Net O rating in 1985 is the best we have recorded? The best I've seen so far is Steve Nash in 2005 with a +17.3 Net O rating. Moses offensive numbers confirm what we know of him. It also shows that the Houston offensive dropoff without him was no fluke.

Using the same method to calculate net ortg there are several players since '01 with better result than Moses:

Code: Select all

ORTG   MIN   SEASON   PLAYER
24,2   3277   2005-06   Kobe Bryant
24,1   2793   2009-10   Dwyane Wade
22,3   2949   2002-03   Tracy McGrady
21,4   3295   2004-05   Stephon Marbury
20,9   3048   2008-09   Dwyane Wade
20,0   2942   2006-07   Gilbert Arenas
20,0   3239   2009-10   Kevin Durant
19,8   3006   2007-08   Chris Paul
19,6   3385   2005-06   Gilbert Arenas
19,4   3002   2008-09   Chris Paul
19,0   2846   2013-14   Stephen Curry
19,0   2975   2005-06   Jason Kidd

[colts18]

Using the same method to calculate net ortg there are several players since '01 with better result than Moses:

Code: Select all

ORTG   MIN   SEASON   PLAYER
24,2   3277   2005-06   Kobe Bryant
24,1   2793   2009-10   Dwyane Wade
22,3   2949   2002-03   Tracy McGrady
21,4   3295   2004-05   Stephon Marbury
20,9   3048   2008-09   Dwyane Wade
20,0   2942   2006-07   Gilbert Arenas
20,0   3239   2009-10   Kevin Durant
19,8   3006   2007-08   Chris Paul
19,6   3385   2005-06   Gilbert Arenas
19,4   3002   2008-09   Chris Paul
19,0   2846   2013-14   Stephen Curry
19,0   2975   2005-06   Jason Kidd

I forgot about Kobe's 06 season. He had a +18.9 Net O rating so he slightly edges out Moses. I checked all the other players real Net O rating and none of them surpassed Moses. Moses having the record would depend on what pace the Sixers played with him on the court. If they played slower with him, then he has it. If faster, then his real Net o rating is lower. I would imagine that they played slower with him because O rebounds count as 1 possession so the time of possession would be higher with him on the court.

[ceiling raiser]

What other elite offensive rebounders do we have on record for whom to check Net ORtg?