Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Bulls

[jazzfan1971]

Chicago Bulls

Projected Lineup
------------------------------------------

PG - Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Aaron Brooks
SG - Jimmy Butler, Tony Snell,
SF - Mike Dunleavy, Doug McDermott
PF - Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, Cameron Bairstow
C - Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, Solomon Jones, Nazr Mohammed

(Pau will likely start at PF, but, I think he may play as many or more minutes at center so I have him listed there. I think you've got to be a bit creative with this depth chart unless you want to list folks at more than one position)

Trading Block: Nobody jumps off the page at me as being on the block, but, there is a pretty big log jam of talent with Gibson/Mirotic/Gasol and not much depth at SG. So, I could see something being done there potentially.

Position Battle: As mentioned the PF position is stacked. Gibson and Gasol both deserve starter minutes and Mirotic probably deserves some good run. And with how good Noah is there isn't a whole lot of room to simply play center either.

Mystery Man: It's all about Derrick Rose. I mean there are other compelling stories on the roster. How good is Mirotic? Can Noah maintain those assist numbers with Rose on the squad? Will McDermott translate to the pros or is he just another Jimmer Fredette? How much does Gasol have left in the tank? How much is losing Boozer addition by subtraction? I could go on. The Bulls have lots of mysteries to ponder, but none of them will have the impact that Rose's health or lack thereof will have on the team.

Floppymusings: a very hard team to predict. If D. Rose returns to 2012 form, then CHI is likely looking at a #1 seed. But for the moment I'm going with a more modest value for him, and just counting on him playing 80% of the games. With the rest of the strong supporting cast there, it's good for 52 wins on the season and the second best record in the east.

Jazzfanramblings: Last year my crystal ball told me that the Nets would have the best regular season record.

My crystal ball sucks.

Even so, I'm going to dust it off and attempt to predict the answers to all the questions about the Bulls this year. So, here we go...

Eeeney weenie, chillie beenie, the spirits are about to speak... (this is the incantation I use to activate my crystal ball)

Oh, mighty spirits tell us, 'How much will losing Boozer help the Bulls?'

The spirits say, 'Quite a bit actually. Gasol, Gibson, and Mirotic will all provide more efficient two way play than Boozer did. Every minute given to Boozer over Gibson last year was a wasted minute.'

Oh, mighty spirits tell us, 'How much does Gasol have left in the tank?'

The spirits say, 'Enough. Gasol's game was never based on athleticism, so he'll age gracefully. We do see a reduction in minutes and role as he's used more as a backup 5 than a starting 4.'

Oh, mighty spirits tell us, 'Will McDermott translate to the pros?'

The spirits say, 'McDermott will follow in the footsteps of other legendary college players such as Adam Morrison and Jimmer Fredette.'

Oh, mighty spirits tell us, 'Can Noah maintain those gaudy assist numbers will Rose returning?'

The spirits say, 'Not a chance. Rose dominates the ball too much for anyone else to get those kind of opportunities. Noah will still be fantastic, but, not the fantasy beast he was last year.'

Oh, mighty spirits tell us, 'How good is Mirotic?'

The spirits say, 'He's good. He'll make everyone forget how badly McDermott is shooting the ball.'

Oh, mighty spirits tell us, 'How will Derrick Rose do this year?'

The spirits say, 'He will struggle for the first couple months, then will find a bit of his stride, then will be sidelined with a variety of injuries. Off and on the court, it's going to be a season of ups and downs for Derrick Rose. Expect the worst and you won't be disappointed.'

Wow. Just wow. The spirits were pretty forthcoming today. Bummer about Rose, I was hoping he'd have a great year. Well, at least Boozer is gone!

Predicted Record - 52/30

[Purch]

I won't lie, I belive your assumption that Pau isn't gonna start is pretty off base. Everything I've seen from their preseason games, to statements coming out of their camp indicate that they're going big with Gasol/Noah. If the Spurs can go big with two elite passing bigs and have the #1 seed, I see no reason why Chicago can't. Especilly considering Pau can hit that same mid range jumper that Duncan does at this stage. On defense it's safe to assume Gasol would defend centers, as hes still a good interior defender and shot blocker, whiles Noah or Gibson would defend mobile or stretch 4's.

Also I think you're much to low with your win projection

Last season they won 48 games whiles being dead last in points scored per game, and 28th in offensive rating. So it's clear that their elite defense can carry them inspite of lackluster offense.

But what you're predicting is that the addition of Gasol and Rose (in addition to the improved Noah from last season) as offensive threats in their starting lineup, will only produce 4 more wins. If their defense alone (even with Boozer who is a much worse defender than Gasol) was able to produce 48 wins. Having 2 consistent offensive threats alongside Noah that can at least make them an averge offensive team should be enough to push them into the 57-62 win range. Remember when they won 62 games there were still just an average offensive team, but their elite defense makes up for that. Also, when they were at least average on offense , their defense was even better because they were putting pressure on the opposite end.

[pukaface]

agreed, your crystal ball does suck.

[floppymoose]

Regarding the win projection... the east got tougher. It's doubly hard to gain ground this year.

[jazzfan1971]

I do see Pau starting. Read the paragraph right after the depth chart.

[JohnnyNightrain]

McDermott will follow in the footsteps of other legendary college players such as Adam Morrison and Jimmer Fredette.'

That's probably the most ridiculous prediction.

[KokoKaizer]

McDermott will follow in the footsteps of other legendary college players such as Adam Morrison and Jimmer Fredette.'

That's probably the most ridiculous prediction.

It will hurts Eduardo so much

[Andi Obst]

agreed, your crystal ball does suck.

[JohnnyNightrain]

McDermott will follow in the footsteps of other legendary college players such as Adam Morrison and Jimmer Fredette.'

That's probably the most ridiculous prediction.

It will hurts Eduardo so much

Ha. Seriously, though, I'm not sure you can really compare those players. McDermott wasn't as hyped (despite his scoring) and he was brought in to play a role. Many think he'll earn the starting spot, but he wasn't drafted to come in and light the league on fire as a starter. Secondly, I don't think any player whose first years are going be be under Thibs is going to play himself out of the league, barring injuries or off-court trouble. He's got a high basketball IQ and seems to have his head on straight. More than likely he'll end up with a career along the lines on Dunleavy or Korver. Time will tell, though.

[mademan]

They'll be regular season champs (50+ wins easily, imo) but they would get destroyed by the Cavs in a series. And WAS matches up well with them to the point where I can see an upset happening there. I think their ceiling with/without Rose in MVP form is the same (ECF with an outside shot at the finals).

[majortom71]

What?!? Eduardo has not posted here yet?? *mind blown*

[franktony]

I won't lie, I belive your assumption that Pau isn't gonna start is pretty off base. Everything I've seen from their preseason games, to statements coming out of their camp indicate that they're going big with Gasol/Noah. If the Spurs can go big with two elite passing bigs and have the #1 seed, I see no reason why Chicago can't. Especilly considering Pau can hit that same mid range jumper that Duncan does at this stage. On defense it's safe to assume Gasol would defend centers, as hes still a good interior defender and shot blocker, whiles Noah or Gibson would defend mobile or stretch 4's.

Also I think you're much to low with your win projection

Last season they won 48 games whiles being dead last in points scored per game, and 28th in offensive rating. So it's clear that their elite defense can carry them inspite of lackluster offense.

But what you're predicting is that the addition of Gasol and Rose (in addition to the improved Noah from last season) as offensive threats in their starting lineup, will only produce 4 more wins. If their defense alone (even with Boozer who is a much worse defender than Gasol) was able to produce 48 wins. Having 2 consistent offensive threats alongside Noah that can at least make them an averge offensive team should be enough to push them into the 57-62 win range. Remember when they won 62 games there were still just an average offensive team, but their elite defense makes up for that. Also, when they were at least average on offense , their defense was even better because they were putting pressure on the opposite end.

I agree with pretty much everything.

[RSCD3_]

Eduardo has already tracked the IP address and is driving to said location of the OP to pay him a visit

Jk

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[CBS7]

Comparing McDermott to Morrison/Jimmer is pretty lazy. Pretty much only because they're white and can shoot.

[consultant]

I'm not sure why this deserved a separate thread, the "analysis" here is at best superficial. I stopped reading when you compared McDermott to Fredette.

[I beg to differ]

The fact that Adam Morrison is white shouldn't trump the fact that McDermott is an epically better shooter. I guess Andrew Wiggins, Stromile Swift, and Tyrus Thomas are all black guys who can jump. But obviously Wiggins isn't comparable to those guys many ways.

McDermott could bust. But he could also end up like Alan Houston, Kiki Vandewegh, Glen Rice, Michael Redd, Alex English, Reggie Miller, Glenn Robinson, Wally Szczerbiak ... none of these guys had great athleticism, ball handling, or defense.

[M4P]

It really seems as if you just took a quick look at their off season moves and projected a number. The reasoning behind your assessments is pretty off based, and this is coming from a Rockets' fan

[floppymoose]

Heh, what I did to get the projections wasn't quick. It may be wrong, but it was not quick.

[WesleyExChiFan]

Heh, what I did to get the projections wasn't quick. It may be wrong, but it was not quick.

have you watched any preseason games? McDermott analysis is lazy too. Did you look at his measurables? Btw, white isn't a measurable in case you were wondering.

[dumbell78]

Crystal ball replacement needed.