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Team/Player Stats Discussion

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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#221 » by Nivek » Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:07 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Am anxious to see an update of Wall's PPA after his player-of-the-week week...


It'll be up this afternoon/evening.
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#222 » by Nivek » Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:51 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Am anxious to see an update of Wall's PPA after his player-of-the-week week...


And, it's up.

Wall's PPA went from a 167 on December 8 to a 175 this week.

Here are Wall's single game PPA scores for games this month:

- 426 vs. MIA
- 78 vs. LAL
- 219 vs. DEN
- 183 @ BOS
- 204 vs. BOS
- 252 @ ORL
- 107 vs. LAC
- 245 vs. UTA
- 296 vs. MIN

That's a December PPA of 219. MVP candidates typically are 225 or higher.
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#223 » by Zonkerbl » Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:45 am

Nivek wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:Am anxious to see an update of Wall's PPA after his player-of-the-week week...


And, it's up.

Wall's PPA went from a 167 on December 8 to a 175 this week.

Here are Wall's single game PPA scores for games this month:

- 426 vs. MIA
- 78 vs. LAL
- 219 vs. DEN
- 183 @ BOS
- 204 vs. BOS
- 252 @ ORL
- 107 vs. LAC
- 245 vs. UTA
- 296 vs. MIN

That's a December PPA of 219. MVP candidates typically are 225 or higher.


Aw, you didn't use the version of that picture with the lazzors.
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#224 » by Zonkerbl » Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:50 am

Kevin Seraphin, interestingly enough, continues to suck eggs.
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#225 » by tontoz » Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:00 am

Looking at 2s from 10-22 feet leaguewide Wall is currently 7th in attempts this year. Obviously that is way too many. The good news is that he is making them at 41% which is better than normal for him. His career best was 37.5% two years ago.


http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=fg
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#226 » by Nivek » Thu Dec 18, 2014 7:57 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Kevin Seraphin, interestingly enough, continues to suck eggs.


Posted in another thread, but fits well here...

Here's Seraphin's PPA for each game this season:

Code: Select all

Date                    Opp     MP      PPA
10/29/2014      @       MIA     7.7     -182
10/30/2014      @       ORL     1.9     -903
11/4/2014       @       NYK     22.1    166
11/5/2014               IND     13.9    -75
11/7/2014       @       TOR     18.1    58
11/8/2014       @       IND     19.5    126
11/12/2014              DET     16.7    -62
11/15/2014              ORL     16.1    -32
11/19/2014              DAL     10.6    -33
11/21/2014              CLE     23.4    75
11/22/2014      @       MIL     13.1    -26
11/25/2014              ATL     14.8    -11
11/26/2014      @       CLE     22.7    -15
11/29/2014              NOP     6.7     -26
12/1/2014               MIA     19.6    19
12/3/2014               LAL     14.1    13
12/5/2014               DEN     22.5    156
12/7/2014       @       BOS     10.2    171
12/8/2014               BOS     16.4    257
12/10/2014      @       ORL     12.1    74
12/12/2014              LAC     15.4    -56
12/14/2014              UTA     16.0    -54
12/16/2014              MIN     17.1    52


Three straight very good games from December 5-8, but bad since then. Here's a breakdown of his season so far:

Code: Select all

QUAL              COUNT     %
Avg+               5       22%
Replace            14      61%
Negative           12      52%


So, Seraphin's performance has been average or better in 5 of 23 games this season -- 22%. He's been replacement level or worse in 14 of 23 -- 61%. He's been a net negative (bad plays have outweighed the good) 12 of 23 -- 52%.

His December numbers are better -- two very good games and one great one. But, in the 9 games so far this month, there are still four games that rate below replacement level (two of which were net negatives), and a fifth that was just barely above replacement level (the most recent). Net for the month, a PPA of 70 in which 94% of his production came in just three games.

When I look at his total credits, 84% of his season production has been in December -- 79% in that single three-game stretch.
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#227 » by Nivek » Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:46 pm

So, I keep seeing the nugget that the Wizards are 15-0 when holding opponent under 100 points. This is true, but...

  1. The average team is scoring 100.2 points per game. By definition, the break point for winning and losing is going to be around 100.
  2. Three other teams are unbeaten when opponent scores less than 100 -- GSW (15-0), ATL (14-0), TOR (12-0). Sorta interesting that three of the four unbeatens are in the East.
  3. Four teams have losing records when opponent scores less than 100 -- CHO (3-5), NYK (5-9), DET (4-9), PHI (1-7). Hmm, all in the East.
  4. Two teams are .500 -- ORL (8-8) and UTA (5-5). Another team in the East and one of the really bad teams in the West.
  5. League record when opponent scores less than 100 points -- 261-103, a .717 winning percentage.
  6. OKC leads league in holding opponent under 100. They've done it 19 times and are 11-8 in those games. Of course, they've missed Durant and Westbrook (aka their offense) for many of those games.
  7. The Lakers are 5-2 when holding opponent under 100.
  8. Wizards are tied with GSW, MEM, MIA, and BRK for 4th most games holding opponent under 100. OKC (19), POR (17), HOU (17) and ORL (16) are the top four.

This statoid isn't as meaningful as we'd like it to be.
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#228 » by fishercob » Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:49 pm

Nivek wrote:So, I keep seeing the nugget that the Wizards are 15-0 when holding opponent under 100 points. This is true, but...

  1. The average team is scoring 100.2 points per game. By definition, the break point for winning and losing is going to be around 100.
  2. Three other teams are unbeaten when opponent scores less than 100 -- GSW (15-0), ATL (14-0), TOR (12-0). Sorta interesting that three of the four unbeatens are in the East.
  3. Four teams have losing records when opponent scores less than 100 -- CHO (3-5), NYK (5-9), DET (4-9), PHI (1-7). Hmm, all in the East.
  4. Two teams are .500 -- ORL (8-8) and UTA (5-5). Another team in the East and one of the really bad teams in the West.
  5. League record when opponent scores less than 100 points -- 261-103, a .717 winning percentage.
  6. OKC leads league in holding opponent under 100. They've done it 19 times and are 11-8 in those games. Of course, they've missed Durant and Westbrook (aka their offense) for many of those games.
  7. The Lakers are 5-2 when holding opponent under 100.
  8. Wizards are tied with GSW, MEM, MIA, and BRK for 4th most games holding opponent under 100. OKC (19), POR (17), HOU (17) and ORL (16) are the top four.

This statoid isn't as meaningful as we'd like it to be.


Expect to see it mentioned repeatedly during CSN's broadcast.
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#229 » by tontoz » Mon Dec 22, 2014 3:13 pm

Currently tied with Atlanta for 2nd at 19-7 but....

Historically point differential is a good predictor of future record. Currently the differentials at the top of the East are;

Raps +8.6
Hawks +6.1
Bulls +3.8
Wizards +3.7
Cavs +3.4

Nobody else in the east is positive so assuming no major injuries we are unlikely to finish worse than 5 but getting home court in the first round might be tough.
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#230 » by Nivek » Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:51 pm

Weekly PPA update is at the blog.

I took a look at the upcoming schedule. Next 5 games will probably be the toughest stretch of the regular season. Next 19 games will be a significant step up in quality of opponent.

To this point, Washington's opponents have been the collective quality of a 37-win team. Over the next 5, the collective quality of a 50-win team. Over the next 19, the collective quality of a 44-win team.
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#231 » by Hypnotizer » Thu Jan 1, 2015 1:58 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/johnschuhmann/status/550504871083122690[/tweet]
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#232 » by Zonkerbl » Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:09 pm

Is unibrow's PPA still off the charts?
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#233 » by Nivek » Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:53 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Is unibrow's PPA still off the charts?


No -- it's down into the 270s, which is still fantastic, but not otherworldly. In my update last week, he'd actually fallen to 2nd behind Curry.
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#234 » by nate33 » Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:27 pm

Interesting that Wall is 3rd in the league in minutes played. He's only averaging 35.3 minutes. Usually, at least 5 or 6 guys a season average 38 minutes or more. Last year, 35.3 minutes would have ranked 24th overall in minutes played.

It helps that he stays healthy. He hasn't missed a game in 2 years now. Let's hope that continues.
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#235 » by Zonkerbl » Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:32 pm

Dude! Jinx much?!?!?!?! OH MIGHTY BASKETBALL GODS, NATE KNOWS NOT OF WHICH HE SPEAKETH!!! WE PLEAD YOU DO NOT SMOTE OUR HUMBLE JOHNNY MAX WITH YOUR WRATHETH!!!
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#236 » by Nivek » Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:25 am

So, was just diddling around over at basketball-reference. Looked up teams with a winning percentage of 65% or better. In league history (including this season), 247 teams had (or currently have) meet the criteria. This is where this year's Wizards team ranks on that list in SRS (combination of margin of victory and strength of schedule).

Spoiler:
247
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#237 » by queridiculo » Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:01 am

Thanks Cpt. Buzzkill :lol:
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#238 » by Nivek » Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:33 am

queridiculo wrote:Thanks Cpt. Buzzkill :lol:


Ain't nuttin' gonna kill this buzz.

Except time. Time always kills a buzz. :(
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#239 » by queridiculo » Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:00 am

On the subject of the win differential, I wonder if lead/clock management is somehow quantifiable, because is sure as hell seems as if Wittman is the worst at sad management.
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Re: Team/Player Stats Discussion 

Post#240 » by queridiculo » Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:00 am

On the subject of the win differential, I wonder if lead/clock management is somehow quantifiable, because is sure as hell seems as if Wittman is the worst at sad management.

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