2015 Draft Thread - Part 1

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Basically, I see Wright as the second coming of Shawn Livingston, at this point. He does need to improve his jumper to move ahead of that. His age hurts, but remember, he was the same dominant player last year - at age 21. These negatives are the reasons why he could be available when the Wiz pick.

I read Dat's earlier concern and yours about age.

This to you both, FYI:

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2014/9/19 ... anta-Hawks

The Hawks targeted seniors in the draft over the last 3 years and in those seniors found its greatest success with experienced college graduates other teams ignored. College graduates Mike Scott and Mike Muscala are already successful second-round selections and the 2014-15 season will give fans an opportunity to assess if Michigan State's Adreian Payne can bring an instant injection of toughness and range to the Atlanta bench. While more than half of the NBA has fewer college seniors than can be counted on one hand, Atlanta has seven players with four years of college experience (Scott, Muscala, Payne, Kent Bazemore, DeMarre Carroll, Shelvin Mack, Kyle Korver) and holds the rights to 2015 second-round senior selection Lamar Patterson. While Atlanta is viewed as a destination for international players, no team in the NBA relies more on the American college experience than the Atlanta Hawks.

Is age a problem for starters Carroll and Korver? Isn't Mike Scott a quality sub?

The tendency is for touted players to be drafted as one and done players. Regardless of that, mature, well-rounded human beings can contribute to any team. Staying in school doesn't make a player worse! It's a shame that staying in school lowers a player in the draft. Off the top of my head I can think of several good players who were at least 22 or 23 when they made it to the NBA: Tim Duncan, Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Draymond Green, Wesley Matthews, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Emeka Okafor, Kelly Olynyk, Jeremy Lin.

I would argue that the very best players have talent but stay in school where they get even better mentally and physically. Back in the day players like Kareem and Larry Bird were MEN when they entered the NBA. There's no way Anthony Davis would have been as dominant against players like David Robinson, Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone, and Kevin McHale as he is in today's NBA. They were all stronger and older as second and third year pros.

Dat, when I say I prefer Nate Wolters over Glen Rice Jr it's because players like Steve Blake and Greveis Vasquez are working on having very successful careers, despite both being labeled by draft "experts" as having no upside. They were seniors who LED their NCAA teams for years, just like Curry, Lillard, and Wolters. Throw Kirk Hinrich and Luke Ridnour into the same conversation. Leadership, proficiency, and competitive drive are intangibles that are underrated.

Guys like Glen Rice Jr are often overrated.



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[nate33]

Is age a problem for starters Carroll and Korver? Isn't Mike Scott a quality sub?

The tendency is for touted players to be drafted as one and done players. Regardless of that, mature, well-rounded human beings can contribute to any team. Staying in school doesn't make a player worse! It's a shame that staying in school lowers a player in the draft. Off the top of my head I can think of several good players who were at least 22 or 23 when they made it to the NBA: Tim Duncan, Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Draymond Green, Wesley Matthews, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Emeka Okafor, Kelly Olynyk, Jeremy Lin.

I'd take Duncan and Okafor out of the conversation. Everyone knew they were supremely talented and could have come out sooner. As top 2 picks, they certainly didn't fall in the draft due to age. But I generally agree with your later point, at least to some degree. I think rock-solid seniors do get devalued more than they should - particularly when you are talking about role players.

I think it's relatively rare that a college senior becomes a legit superstar, so teams trying to draft a home run don't go after them, but if you are trying to add depth, seniors are great. Their biggest benefit is that they're typically ready to play right away (or by their second season) so you get a 3 or 4 year contributor on a rookie deal. Guys like Draymond Green are like gold because of that. (I really wanted Green on draft day.)

Given our plan of maximizing cap space in 2016, it seems to me that pursuing seniors might make a lot of sense. It would be nice to round out or bench with competent, mature players on rookie contracts.

[Severn Hoos]

Great post, CCJ - I've always thought college Seniors are underrated, and subject to a bias ("ageism"?) by draft experts and NBA execs who are always looking for the next superstar. I mean maybe Bruno "Mars" Caboclo really will turn out to be the Brazilian KD. But I would have taken the guy right after him, the "over-age" Mitch McGary. (Not that McGary is lighting up the league, but he is on a team that's a legitimate title contender when healthy.)

But nate beat me to it with the one qualifier I would add, which is that you rarely find the star/impact/franchise player from among the college Seniors. Curry (and to a lesser extent, Lillard) are very much the exception to the rule. When you look at the true stars in the league, you have LeBron, KD, Melo, Rose, Wall, Love, Howard, Irving, Bosh, Jefferson - all with 1 or 0 years of college. Then you have another group that left after their sophomore year: Paul, Griffin, George, Aldridge, Westbrook. Even some of the ones who stayed to their 3rd year, like Noah & Horford, are a bit of the exception that proves the rule, in that they had a special circumstance - a generational team & class with a chance to repeat as NCAA champs - that kept them in for that 3rd year.

So my rule of thumb is, if a guy hasn't been truly dominant by his second year in college / 20th birthday, then he probably never will be.

BUT - those guys who are mature, who know the fundamentals of the game and play it the right way, they can be outstanding role players in the NBA.

Or, put another way, college Seniors may rarely become superstars, but are often great role players. And one-and-dones can turn into superstars (no guarantees), but tend to make lousy role players.

That's why what the Hawks have done is so brilliant. If you're picking in the late 1st, early 2nd round, who would you rather have? The 4-year Senior who beings maturity and can step in right away? Or the college Freshman who's pouting because he wasn't picked in the Lottery? The role player who does one ting extremely well (Shooting, rebounding, defense), or the guy with the "freakish athleticism" that you hope will develop an all-around game?

I've loved watching Mike Scott develop. Even I didn't think he'd be this good in the NBA, I was just hoping he'd stick in the league. Same for Joe Harris, he now looks like he might end up with a long career, even if he never becomes a star(ter). [Side note for the few UVA fans on here - how about Justin Anderson? He's always been an athletic freak and great defender, but his TS% through the first 10 games is .704! HE's shooting almost 60% from 3! I just hope he doesn't get lured into going a year early - we need you Justin, stay with the Hoos for one more year!]

The blueprint is pretty obvious, IMO. You have to get one or two top-tier talents, either through the Lottery or through FA - and those will almost certainly be 1- or 2-year college players (or Foreign, but that that's a whole different discussion). Then, fill around them with a generous dose of college Juniors and Seniors, who can often be picked in the 20's, 30's or later. But beware of finding that "steal" in the second round. If all the other GMs "overlooked" a guy, there just might be a very good reason for it. And you might find yourself frustrated when a guy who sees himself as a star resists fitting into a supporting role.

[fishercob]

Sev, I so enjoy reading your posts.

[Severn Hoos]

Thanks, fish - and back atcha. I don't post here often (what is this, a Dos Equis commercial), but when I'm lurking and see your name at the top of a thread, I always click on it.

If I can just keep myself out of the politics thread, I can stay in the right frame of mind (pardon the unintentional pun) to post in the other threads...



Chag Urim Sameach!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Is age a problem for starters Carroll and Korver? Isn't Mike Scott a quality sub?

The tendency is for touted players to be drafted as one and done players. Regardless of that, mature, well-rounded human beings can contribute to any team. Staying in school doesn't make a player worse! It's a shame that staying in school lowers a player in the draft. Off the top of my head I can think of several good players who were at least 22 or 23 when they made it to the NBA: Tim Duncan, Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Draymond Green, Wesley Matthews, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Emeka Okafor, Kelly Olynyk, Jeremy Lin.

I'd take Duncan and Okafor out of the conversation. Everyone knew they were supremely talented and could have come out sooner. As top 2 picks, they certainly didn't fall in the draft due to age. But I generally agree with your later point, at least to some degree. I think rock-solid seniors do get devalued more than they should - particularly when you are talking about role players.

I think it's relatively rare that a college senior becomes a legit superstar, so teams trying to draft a home run don't go after them, but if you are trying to add depth, seniors are great. Their biggest benefit is that they're typically ready to play right away (or by their second season) so you get a 3 or 4 year contributor on a rookie deal. Guys like Draymond Green are like gold because of that. (I really wanted Green on draft day.)

Given our plan of maximizing cap space in 2016, it seems to me that pursuing seniors might make a lot of sense. It would be nice to round out or bench with competent, mature players on rookie contracts.

The point I was trying to make is do not discriminate based on draftee age. Great players in the past played at least two years but on average, three or four years. That didn't make them worse when they got to the NBA. It arguably made them even more prepared to succeed.

I didn't say anything about finding superstars as seniors. One thing I inferred is that a superstar player, if he doesn't come out as a freshman will find his draft stock plummet each season he stays in the draft. Tim Duncan wouldn't be allowed to stay four years in this era. This shouldn't be so.

If you look at Draft Express and their mock drafts, players like the Harrison twins would be round one picks if they declare as freshman, but with each new crop of hyped up freshman they will project to go lower and lower in the draft. They'll be round two picks if they stay four seasons.

You got my main point, nate. Drafting seniors, and I would add juniors, makes sense for teams looking for role players who are capable of coming in right away and contributing.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Great post, CCJ - I've always thought college Seniors are underrated, and subject to a bias ("ageism"?) by draft experts and NBA execs who are always looking for the next superstar. I mean maybe Bruno "Mars" Caboclo really will turn out to be the Brazilian KD. But I would have taken the guy right after him, the "over-age" Mitch McGary. (Not that McGary is lighting up the league, but he is on a team that's a legitimate title contender when healthy.)

But nate beat me to it with the one qualifier I would add, which is that you rarely find the star/impact/franchise player from among the college Seniors. Curry (and to a lesser extent, Lillard) are very much the exception to the rule. When you look at the true stars in the league, you have LeBron, KD, Melo, Rose, Wall, Love, Howard, Irving, Bosh, Jefferson - all with 1 or 0 years of college. Then you have another group that left after their sophomore year: Paul, Griffin, George, Aldridge, Westbrook. Even some of the ones who stayed to their 3rd year, like Noah & Horford, are a bit of the exception that proves the rule, in that they had a special circumstance - a generational team & class with a chance to repeat as NCAA champs - that kept them in for that 3rd year.

So my rule of thumb is, if a guy hasn't been truly dominant by his second year in college / 20th birthday, then he probably never will be.

BUT - those guys who are mature, who know the fundamentals of the game and play it the right way, they can be outstanding role players in the NBA.

Or, put another way, college Seniors may rarely become superstars, but are often great role players. And one-and-dones can turn into superstars (no guarantees), but tend to make lousy role players.

That's why what the Hawks have done is so brilliant. If you're picking in the late 1st, early 2nd round, who would you rather have? The 4-year Senior who beings maturity and can step in right away? Or the college Freshman who's pouting because he wasn't picked in the Lottery? The role player who does one ting extremely well (Shooting, rebounding, defense), or the guy with the "freakish athleticism" that you hope will develop an all-around game?

I've loved watching Mike Scott develop. Even I didn't think he'd be this good in the NBA, I was just hoping he'd stick in the league. Same for Joe Harris, he now looks like he might end up with a long career, even if he never becomes a star(ter). [Side note for the few UVA fans on here - how about Justin Anderson? He's always been an athletic freak and great defender, but his TS% through the first 10 games is .704! HE's shooting almost 60% from 3! I just hope he doesn't get lured into going a year early - we need you Justin, stay with the Hoos for one more year!]

The blueprint is pretty obvious, IMO. You have to get one or two top-tier talents, either through the Lottery or through FA - and those will almost certainly be 1- or 2-year college players (or Foreign, but that that's a whole different discussion). Then, fill around them with a generous dose of college Juniors and Seniors, who can often be picked in the 20's, 30's or later. But beware of finding that "steal" in the second round. If all the other GMs "overlooked" a guy, there just might be a very good reason for it. And you might find yourself frustrated when a guy who sees himself as a star resists fitting into a supporting role.

Thanks, Sev.

I agree totally with your rule of thumb. I think you are on point on what is probably the best way to draft outside of the lottery.

I believe the NCAA and the NBA would both improve if players had to stay in college two years or until they were 20 years old.

I think the NBA should follow the lead of NCAA baseball. Players who go to college should be required to stick around at least 2 or 3 years. There should be drafting of players right out of HS if they don't wish to go to college. Remove the hypocrisy of labeling young men scholar athletes when some merely play NCAA ball a year before they turn professional. Stop academic fraud. Let people who don't care to go to college turn pro right away, but at the risk of failure.

The NBA really needs a minor league system or club teams for junior level players, similar to European leagues. Players need to be developed in a lot of ways before they reach the bright lights of the NBA.

[doclinkin]

The other benefit of drafting players with some college experience is that you can get a sense of their work ethic simply by peeking at their stats. There are key stats in which it is important to see improvement, key skills that can and do improve with work and experience. For players who are not evident hypertalents the road to success is continual improvement. I am more impressed with an upward trajectory than with certain physical measurables. (Aside from standing reach few physical stats are especially meaningful; maybe lane agility when it comes to a certain size of player).

Reference the Malcolm Gladwell quote in Kevs signature, that (paraphrasing here) one measure of 'talent' is simply the willingness to work. BBIQ is a phrase that is lobbed around, that you want players who know how to play the game and have situational awareness and we have seen in players like McGee that you can have unmatched physical skills, the ideal basketball body unparalleled measurables and athleticism, the best pure BBall body since Wilt and yet still be sabotaged by by the wetware running the machine.

But execs and pundits moan that you can't really predict a players mental make-up. Well yeah you can. You can see it in the stats if you know what to look for and if you have a little bit of a track record to work with. In the younger players you can only look at their progression over one year to see how quickly they pick up things, though it is tough since often the tougher part of the schedule comes when they hit conference play and the NCAA tourney where competition stiffens, and a player who improves in this arena is a the guy you want on your team, the one who proves strong willed and clutch and able to rise to the moment and welcoming competition.

This is why I tend to focus more in my draft assay with the 2nd rounders and 1st round steals than with guys at the top of the draft. Stef Curry was a guy who got better against the tough competition. Kemba Walker. Guys like that will go early in the 1st round, but Taj Gibson. Nikola Vucevic. Manimal. Greivis. Steve Blake. There are players who show steady improvement that you know will outperform their reputation, and those guys can be found late in the draft every year. But it damn sure helps if you have a couple years of stats to look at, and can peek at their progression within a given season or into the tourney.

[doclinkin]

In that light, who is a player tabbed by the 'rising ability' metric? Not enough games yet this year, but maybe Tyrone Wallace of Cal is creeping onto the screen? Still sifting. You can get more of these steals in guards foreign born and perimeter players since the tall american talents have been hyped and touted for years by the time they hit college.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Tyrone Wallace? I will keep an eye out for him.

Here's another guy I think fits into that rising category: Daniel Ochefu of Villanova.

Ochefu is a big man with good hops and explosive quickness.

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[doclinkin]

Draft and stash candidate: Egidijus Mockevicius. 6'10" Lithuanian (great international program), active athlete, smart heads up play, great hands for steals & instinct for boards, small school but plays well against ranked competition. He'll get work overseas for continuing development. Good and improving FT% suggests he'll be able to add a ranged jumper with work. Steady improvement in all the metrics I like to check.

[gambitx777]

some bigs that could be there when we pick, for the first and second rounds. if these guys come out.
Christian Wood: UNLV, 6-11, 12PPG, 9RPG, 3BPG.
Frank Kaminsky: Wisconsin, 7-0 16PPG, 7RPG, 1.9BPG.
Robert Upshaw: Washington, 7-0 10PPG, 6.8RPG, 4BPG.
Rakeem Christmas: Syracuse, 6-9, 16.6PPG, 8.5RG, 2BPG.
Zach Auguste: Notre Dame, 6-10, 14PPG, 6.5RPG, 1BPG.
Bobby Portis: Arkansas, 6-11, 16PPG, 7RPG, 1BPG.
Amida Brimah: Connecticut, 7-0, 12PPG, 4.8RPG, 2.8BPG.
Damian Jones: Vanderbilt, 6-10, 16.7PPG, 7.2RPG, 1.7BPG.

[Ruzious]

Local product Jerian Grant of Notre Dame shows the kind of improvement I like to see, FG% and 3FG% increasing, assists climbing, steals increasing, TO's dropping. I like him as a back-up PG as well.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PV-AF-88uKs[/youtube]

Like Shabzz he's a player who has used college to improve his skillset and mature.

This is from the first page of this thread - back in June - and I think Doc nailed it. Grant's a VERY underrated player - and he is playing strictly the point this season. And he's one of 3 basketball playing sons of ex-Bullet Harvey Grant - seems to be the least athletic of them but easily the most skilled. Btw, Demetrius Jackson - also of Notre Dame - could be a sleeper PG.

UVA's now 5th ranked in the nation, and they have 3 underrated juniors that I'm convinced will play effectively in the NBA - the kind of players who help win games. The first one's obvious - Justin Anderson - 6'6 or 6'7 225 lbs strong pounds, near 7 foot wingspan, this season somehow converted from a great athlete into a legit basketball player. I recall he chose Maryland but changed his mind. His TS% increased from 52% to 71%. His PER went from 16 to 34, and despite the increased usage, his turnover average per 40 minutes pace adjusted decreased from 2.8 to 2.3. He's even developed a very good 3 point shot. The Wiz aren't looking for a swingman, but he has such a high upside that if he's there when they pick, they have to at least consider him. And I haven't even mentioned his D. He looks like MKG playing defense - very intense. And UVA is maybe the best defensive team in the nation. He's projected by draftexpress.com as a 2nd rounder now - expect that to change.

The other 2 are Malcolm Brogdon and Mike Tobey. They both stuck out to me in the 1 game MD lost. Tobey's got a real quiet game for a 7 foot 250 lber - excellent shooter out to 18 feet. He just doesn't seem to make any mistakes - everything he does is fundamentally sound - reminds me of Withey in that respect - and he's got more meat on his bones than Withey. Brogdon's a little old and doesn't have outstanding stats or the athleticism that Anderson has, but he reminds me of Wesley Matthews. He's a strongly built 6'5 with length who can shut down opposing 2's while providing solid offense.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Local product Jerian Grant of Notre Dame shows the kind of improvement I like to see, FG% and 3FG% increasing, assists climbing, steals increasing, TO's dropping. I like him as a back-up PG as well.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PV-AF-88uKs[/youtube]

Like Shabzz he's a player who has used college to improve his skillset and mature.

This is from the first page of this thread - back in June - and I think Doc nailed it. Grant's a VERY underrated player - and he is playing strictly the point this season. And he's one of 3 basketball playing sons of ex-Bullet Harvey Grant - seems to be the least athletic of them but easily the most skilled. Btw, Demetrius Jackson - also of Notre Dame - could be a sleeper PG.

UVA's now 5th ranked in the nation, and they have 3 underrated juniors that I'm convinced will play effectively in the NBA - the kind of players who help win games. The first one's obvious - Justin Anderson - 6'6 or 6'7 225 lbs strong pounds, near 7 foot wingspan, this season somehow converted from a great athlete into a legit basketball player. I recall he chose Maryland but changed his mind. His TS% increased from 52% to 71%. His PER went from 16 to 34, and despite the increased usage, his turnover average per 40 minutes pace adjusted decreased from 2.8 to 2.3. He's even developed a very good 3 point shot. The Wiz aren't looking for a swingman, but he has such a high upside that if he's there when they pick, they have to at least consider him. And I haven't even mentioned his D. He looks like MKG playing defense - very intense. And UVA is maybe the best defensive team in the nation. He's projected by draftexpress.com as a 2nd rounder now - expect that to change.

The other 2 are Malcolm Brogdon and Mike Tobey. They both stuck out to me in the 1 game MD lost. Tobey's got a real quiet game for a 7 foot 250 lber - excellent shooter out to 18 feet. He just doesn't seem to make any mistakes - everything he does is fundamentally sound - reminds me of Withey in that respect - and he's got more meat on his bones than Withey. Brogdon's a little old and doesn't have outstanding stats or the athleticism that Anderson has, but he reminds me of Wesley Matthews. He's a strongly built 6'5 with length who can shut down opposing 2's while providing solid offense.

He's flat out very good. Yes, take him if he's on the board and there's no stud PF or PG with quickness.

Anderson made a great choice to snub the Terps of the past few seasons.

[Severn Hoos]

UVA's now 5th ranked in the nation, and they have 3 underrated juniors that I'm convinced will play effectively in the NBA - the kind of players who help win games. The first one's obvious - Justin Anderson - 6'6 or 6'7 225 lbs strong pounds, near 7 foot wingspan, this season somehow converted from a great athlete into a legit basketball player. I recall he chose Maryland but changed his mind. His TS% increased from 52% to 71%. His PER went from 16 to 34, and despite the increased usage, his turnover average per 40 minutes pace adjusted decreased from 2.8 to 2.3. He's even developed a very good 3 point shot. The Wiz aren't looking for a swingman, but he has such a high upside that if he's there when they pick, they have to at least consider him. And I haven't even mentioned his D. He looks like MKG playing defense - very intense. And UVA is maybe the best defensive team in the nation. He's projected by draftexpress.com as a 2nd rounder now - expect that to change.

The other 2 are Malcolm Brogdon and Mike Tobey. They both stuck out to me in the 1 game MD lost. Tobey's got a real quiet game for a 7 foot 250 lber - excellent shooter out to 18 feet. He just doesn't seem to make any mistakes - everything he does is fundamentally sound - reminds me of Withey in that respect - and he's got more meat on his bones than Withey. Brogdon's a little old and doesn't have outstanding stats or the athleticism that Anderson has, but he reminds me of Wesley Matthews. He's a strongly built 6'5 with length who can shut down opposing 2's while providing solid offense.

Ruz...

I've watched plenty of UVA games. Those guys aren't ready for the NBA. They really need one more year, think of Mike Scott and Joe Harris - they stayed the full 4 years (5 in Scott's case), and are now doing well in the NBA. Leaving next year would be the worst mistake any of them could make, and would do significant harm to their long-term prospects.

OK, that's me trying to convince myself that they won't leave early. If all of those guys (plus Gill and London Perrantes, the quintessential PG) all return next year - watch out! Ironically, the one guy who could probably crack the 1st round this year (Anderson) is the one who I think would be best served with one more year under Bennett. He has improved so much, become a true basketball player, not just a talented athlete. It's kind of like watching guys go to the Spurs and become a whole new player. Selfishly, I hope he stays, but I also genuinely think it would be best for him.

Now, to the actual scouting reports. I'm not as high on Tobey as you are. I agree that he's solid fundamentally, and won't kill you with dumb plays. But for such a big guy, he has a tendency to disappear at times. If he can put it all together, and can have a consistent impact on games like he's capable of doing, he could make it in the NBA. There's also the very real possibility that he's a late bloomer, and with his solid frame he should be no worse than a competent backup. And on a side note, one of the reasons I did not want to Wiz to pick Len last year was the way Tobey pretty thoroughly outplayed him when they met, and Tobey was a Freshman then. So he's had his moments.

Brogdon is just so cool under pressure. He is really the de facto PG when Perrantes is on the bench, and he handles the ball well, if not spectacularly. With his high IQ and game experience - plus knowing & playing solid defense from being on Bennett's team - he should also get a real look from the league. Not a great shooter from distance, but has hit several big-time shots (the 3-pointer at the buzzer at Pitt last year was a thing of beauty). And he's really crafty driving to the basket.

Anderson is the best NBA prospect of the bunch. I'm curious to see if this newfound 3-point accuracy lasts - he's shooting 60% from 3 right now! And the defensive intensity definitely is there, along with the knowledge of team defense. Yes, I'd love to have him on the Wiz (and presumably he'd be happy to stay close to home), just not until 2016!

Thanks for the shout out to my boys - looking forward to seeing them deep into March for once...

[Zonkerbl]

We really do need one of those springy young PFs though. It's been painfully obvious over the last four or five games.

[Zonkerbl]

I almost wish we had Noel now.

[Dat2U]

I almost wish we had Noel now.

Almost? Man... how much better would we be in the future if we had Noel right now?

I like Porter and still have hope for him... but it's frustrating to see him struggle to get opportunities on the perimeter when we have an obvious need for an athletic post defender.

When people praise Ernie for this or that or question my fandom because I can't support the GM... this is part of the reason why. I can't support a GM that makes decisions off of fear & panic. This isn't some revionist history. Noel was the clear #1 prospect in the 2012 draft by a mile up until he got hurt. It seemed like the Wizards were caught off guard when Noel was available and defaulted to the safe choice because they felt Porter could play & contribute right away.

[Zonkerbl]

Now I'm depressed.

[Ruzious]

UVA's now 5th ranked in the nation, and they have 3 underrated juniors that I'm convinced will play effectively in the NBA - the kind of players who help win games. The first one's obvious - Justin Anderson - 6'6 or 6'7 225 lbs strong pounds, near 7 foot wingspan, this season somehow converted from a great athlete into a legit basketball player. I recall he chose Maryland but changed his mind. His TS% increased from 52% to 71%. His PER went from 16 to 34, and despite the increased usage, his turnover average per 40 minutes pace adjusted decreased from 2.8 to 2.3. He's even developed a very good 3 point shot. The Wiz aren't looking for a swingman, but he has such a high upside that if he's there when they pick, they have to at least consider him. And I haven't even mentioned his D. He looks like MKG playing defense - very intense. And UVA is maybe the best defensive team in the nation. He's projected by draftexpress.com as a 2nd rounder now - expect that to change.

The other 2 are Malcolm Brogdon and Mike Tobey. They both stuck out to me in the 1 game MD lost. Tobey's got a real quiet game for a 7 foot 250 lber - excellent shooter out to 18 feet. He just doesn't seem to make any mistakes - everything he does is fundamentally sound - reminds me of Withey in that respect - and he's got more meat on his bones than Withey. Brogdon's a little old and doesn't have outstanding stats or the athleticism that Anderson has, but he reminds me of Wesley Matthews. He's a strongly built 6'5 with length who can shut down opposing 2's while providing solid offense.

Ruz...

I've watched plenty of UVA games. Those guys aren't ready for the NBA. They really need one more year, think of Mike Scott and Joe Harris - they stayed the full 4 years (5 in Scott's case), and are now doing well in the NBA. Leaving next year would be the worst mistake any of them could make, and would do significant harm to their long-term prospects.

OK, that's me trying to convince myself that they won't leave early. If all of those guys (plus Gill and London Perrantes, the quintessential PG) all return next year - watch out! Ironically, the one guy who could probably crack the 1st round this year (Anderson) is the one who I think would be best served with one more year under Bennett. He has improved so much, become a true basketball player, not just a talented athlete. It's kind of like watching guys go to the Spurs and become a whole new player. Selfishly, I hope he stays, but I also genuinely think it would be best for him.

Now, to the actual scouting reports. I'm not as high on Tobey as you are. I agree that he's solid fundamentally, and won't kill you with dumb plays. But for such a big guy, he has a tendency to disappear at times. If he can put it all together, and can have a consistent impact on games like he's capable of doing, he could make it in the NBA. There's also the very real possibility that he's a late bloomer, and with his solid frame he should be no worse than a competent backup. And on a side note, one of the reasons I did not want to Wiz to pick Len last year was the way Tobey pretty thoroughly outplayed him when they met, and Tobey was a Freshman then. So he's had his moments.

Brogdon is just so cool under pressure. He is really the de facto PG when Perrantes is on the bench, and he handles the ball well, if not spectacularly. With his high IQ and game experience - plus knowing & playing solid defense from being on Bennett's team - he should also get a real look from the league. Not a great shooter from distance, but has hit several big-time shots (the 3-pointer at the buzzer at Pitt last year was a thing of beauty). And he's really crafty driving to the basket.

Anderson is the best NBA prospect of the bunch. I'm curious to see if this newfound 3-point accuracy lasts - he's shooting 60% from 3 right now! And the defensive intensity definitely is there, along with the knowledge of team defense. Yes, I'd love to have him on the Wiz (and presumably he'd be happy to stay close to home), just not until 2016!

Thanks for the shout out to my boys - looking forward to seeing them deep into March for once...

Sorry, I have already had them sign with agents.

Definitely, Anderson is the guy scouts love and is clearly the elite prospect of the 3. If he keeps up that 3 point shooting, there's no telling what his ceiling is - but yes, that's an If that we'll have to see. I think Tobey and Brogdon will stay - mainly because they are the types that get overlooked - and won't be first round picks. Also, Tobey does have to get his fouls down and minutes up - but notice his PER has shot up to 31.3. What impressed me most about Brogdon in the MD game was when Trimble tried to sneak up a quick 3 at one point - and Brogdon made him look like a freshman by being ready for it and knocking it away - it felt like a statement play - saying "You're a good freshman, but you're not ready for us."

Honestly, I think all 3 of these guys are more talented than Harris and Scott. Virginia might stay undefeated for a while. Jinx!