Using analytics to grade the WC PGs

James72 · Post #1 » by **James72** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:11 pm

ESPN's Kevin Pelton used the following analytic measures to measure the West's PGs:

- PER
- Win-Shares (offensive & defensive)
- RPM
- Win %
- WARP

Using these stats and culminating which one is more valid than the other in the process of grading, the rankings are as such:

1. Curry 2. Paul 3. Lillard 4. Conley 5. Westbrook 6. Collison 7. Lawson 8. Holiday 9. Dragic

Also, being a blazer fan, it looks like lillard has the second highest TS% behind Curry. Lastly, Lillard is third (!) in defensive RPM behind Curry and Rondo.

Surprising that Parker isn't anywhere in these rankings.

Thoughts? Is this a valid way of ranking?

Kings2013 · Post #2 » by **Kings2013** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:19 pm

Collison is a good starting pg in the NBA, the faster it is accepted universally the better for my blood pressure

James72 · Post #3 » by **James72** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:23 pm

agree'd, definitely underrated. However, until the Kings are in the playoff picture, he won't get much recognition.

username_taken · Post #4 » by **username_taken** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:54 pm

Kings2013 wrote:Collison is a good starting pg in the NBA, the faster it is accepted universally the better for my blood pressure

Yep, I was never high on him previously, but he has proved me wrong. He is having a quietly very good season.

Threethrows · Post #5 » by **Threethrows** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:56 pm

I don't really understand why Chris Paul has received so much flak this year. It's not like the Clippers have a bad record or anything. The West is tough, there's no shame being where they are. People thinking they were going to be a top 3 seed are so far (and likely for the season) wrong. That doesn't mean someone has to be blamed. I've seen a lot of talk about CP3 being terrible this season and not even considered in lots of people's top 5.

Point is, CP3 has been playing a bit below his standards and the team isn't doing as well as people expected, but he's still pretty great. Even if he is one of the most unlikable players in the league.

HawaiianJazzFan · Post #6 » by **HawaiianJazzFan** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:57 pm

So who was worse Burke or Lin??

Onus · Post #7 » by **Onus** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:02 pm

Threethrows wrote:I don't really understand why Chris Paul has received so much flak this year. It's not like the Clippers have a bad record or anything. The West is tough, there's no shame being where they are. People thinking they were going to be a top 3 seed are so far (and likely for the season) wrong. That doesn't mean someone has to be blamed. I've seen a lot of talk about CP3 being terrible this season and not even considered in lots of people's top 5.

Point is, CP3 has been playing a bit below his standards and the team isn't doing as well as people expected, but he's still pretty great. Even if he is one of the most unlikable players in the league.

I think it stems from the fact that a lot of people expected the Clippers to be a top 3 seed or "contender" but honestly they're like what 2 GB from the 2 seed right now.

Or they need someone to blame because no way their predictions could be wrong ...

jolbin · Post #8 » by **jolbin** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:09 pm

Dragic is a SG this year.. :/

suns91fan · Post #9 » by **suns91fan** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:21 pm

jolbin wrote:Dragic is a SG this year.. :/

Actually he is just a "guard" this season. Dragic, Bledsoe and Thomas switch at PG duties all the time during games. But you can categorize him as a SG for the sake of rankings and stuff.

jolbin · Post #10 » by **jolbin** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:23 pm

suns91fan wrote:
jolbin wrote:Dragic is a SG this year.. :/

Actually he is just a "guard" this season. Dragic, Bledsoe and Thomas switch at PG duties all the time during games. But you can categorize him as a SG for the sake of rankings and stuff.

Agreed.. But if the categorizing has to be made, we can agree that his role is more a SG than a PG

giberish · Post #11 » by **giberish** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:52 pm

Kings2013 wrote:Collison is a good starting pg in the NBA, the faster it is accepted universally the better for my blood pressure

Collison has been shockingly good this year (way better than past years). Tony Parker has been shockingly bad (much worse then expected - along with Leonard's injury the reason why SA is losing a lot more than usual).

LamronOdonell · Post #12 » by **LamronOdonell** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:53 pm

Worthless stats.

LamronOdonell · Post #13 » by **LamronOdonell** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:56 pm

LamronOdonell wrote:Worthless stats.

Or let me correct myself.

Worthless arbitrary "stats". Especially PER, the creator of it can't even explain it, just like power rankings.

James72 · Post #14 » by **James72** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:07 pm

LamronOdonell wrote:
LamronOdonell wrote:Worthless stats.

Or let me correct myself.

Worthless arbitrary "stats". Especially PER, the creator of it can't even explain it, just like power rankings.

Power ranking? What?

PER is deceptive, not worthless. Any statistic can give insight in to SOMETHING. Also, you might have missed the part where it used in combination of many other analytical statistics.

If these are worthless, please share what statistics would be better?

LamronOdonell · Post #15 » by **LamronOdonell** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:18 pm

James72 wrote:
LamronOdonell wrote:
LamronOdonell wrote:Worthless stats.

Or let me correct myself.

Worthless arbitrary "stats". Especially PER, the creator of it can't even explain it, just like power rankings.

Power ranking? What?

PER is deceptive, not worthless. Any statistic can give insight in to SOMETHING. Also, you might have missed the part where it used in combination of many other analytical statistics.

If these are worthless, please share what statistics would be better?

Eh raw numbers in combination with stats that aren't just arbitrary and given a numeric value based on what the creator feels it is worth. I was saying that Hollinger can't even explain his formulas and he is the creator of PER and the Power rankings. This year according to PER, Davis is having an all time great season only topped by MJ, LeBron and Wilt. We can all agree that Davis is a tremendously talented player but is it really a season that can be compared to LeBrons best?

Me personally I like, efg%, TS%, TRB%, BLK% as far as advanced statistics go among other.

Win shares is totally dependent on how good the team is, like did you know Carlos Boozer finished around top five ahead of players like Noah and Deng a couple of years ago?

jasonic · Post #16 » by **jasonic** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:20 pm

Kings2013 wrote:Collison is a good starting pg in the NBA, the faster it is accepted universally the better for my blood pressure

After his disappointing year with Dallas I never believed he would be starting material. He struggled badly in the heavy pick and roll offense that we used.
I didn't see him play the last 2 years but if he managed to step up his game, good for him I guess.

James72 · Post #17 » by **James72** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:30 pm

LamronOdonell wrote:
James72 wrote:
LamronOdonell wrote:
Or let me correct myself.

Worthless arbitrary "stats". Especially PER, the creator of it can't even explain it, just like power rankings.

Power ranking? What?

PER is deceptive, not worthless. Any statistic can give insight in to SOMETHING. Also, you might have missed the part where it used in combination of many other analytical statistics.

If these are worthless, please share what statistics would be better?

Eh raw numbers in combination with stats that aren't just arbitrary and given a numeric value based on what the creator feels it is worth. I was saying that Hollinger can't even explain his formulas and he is the creator of PER and the Power rankings. This year according to PER, Davis is having an all time great season only topped by MJ, LeBron and Wilt. We can all agree that Davis is a tremendously talented player but is it really a season that can be compared to LeBrons best?

Me personally I like, efg%, TS%, TRB%, BLK% as far as advanced statistics go among other.

Win shares is totally dependent on how good the team is, like did you know Carlos Boozer finished around top five ahead of players like Noah and Deng a couple of years ago?

You didn't show how PER is a power ranking system. i see no relation what so ever. PER is imperfect, but is on way to look at a players performance. Everyone scores points, shoots a FG%, rebounds etc. so while its not even that good, everyone is subject to the same exact scale/formula and gives insight. Moreover, they're looking at the PG position specifically, and each player plays 30+ mpg...making it much more valid and avoids the unbalanced system for certain players (i.e. comparing a PG and C, when one plays 35mpg and the other plays 5mpg). PER isn't saying AD is better than those players... but looking at strictly the stats, his numbers holistically is among them. Also, this post isn't JUST about PER, but PER and numerous other analytics.

The post said it included TS%. RB% and BLK% is irrelevant for the PG position which is what the entirety of this post is about.

How are Win Shares, RPM, Win % and WARP worthless?

Post #18 » by **pacers33granger** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:39 pm

Kings2013 wrote:Collison is a good starting pg in the NBA, the faster it is accepted universally the better for my blood pressure

Good starting pg would imply that he's at least in the top 15 (as 15 would be "average") and that is clearly not the case.

James72 · Post #19 » by **James72** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:43 pm

Onus wrote:
Threethrows wrote:I don't really understand why Chris Paul has received so much flak this year. It's not like the Clippers have a bad record or anything. The West is tough, there's no shame being where they are. People thinking they were going to be a top 3 seed are so far (and likely for the season) wrong. That doesn't mean someone has to be blamed. I've seen a lot of talk about CP3 being terrible this season and not even considered in lots of people's top 5.

Point is, CP3 has been playing a bit below his standards and the team isn't doing as well as people expected, but he's still pretty great. Even if he is one of the most unlikable players in the league.

I think it stems from the fact that a lot of people expected the Clippers to be a top 3 seed or "contender" but honestly they're like what 2 GB from the 2 seed right now.

Or they need someone to blame because no way their predictions could be wrong ...

they are 4 games out of the 2nd seed.

LamronOdonell · Post #20 » by **LamronOdonell** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:44 pm

James72 wrote:
LamronOdonell wrote:
James72 wrote:
Power ranking? What?

PER is deceptive, not worthless. Any statistic can give insight in to SOMETHING. Also, you might have missed the part where it used in combination of many other analytical statistics.

If these are worthless, please share what statistics would be better?

Eh raw numbers in combination with stats that aren't just arbitrary and given a numeric value based on what the creator feels it is worth. I was saying that Hollinger can't even explain his formulas and he is the creator of PER and the Power rankings. This year according to PER, Davis is having an all time great season only topped by MJ, LeBron and Wilt. We can all agree that Davis is a tremendously talented player but is it really a season that can be compared to LeBrons best?

Me personally I like, efg%, TS%, TRB%, BLK% as far as advanced statistics go among other.

Win shares is totally dependent on how good the team is, like did you know Carlos Boozer finished around top five ahead of players like Noah and Deng a couple of years ago?

You didn't show how PER is a power ranking system. i see no relation what so ever. PER is imperfect, but is on way to look at a players performance. Everyone scores points, shoots a FG%, rebounds etc. so while its not even that good, everyone is subject to the same exact scale/formula and gives insight. Also, this post isn't JUST about PER, but PER and numerous other analytics.

The post said it included TS%. RB% and BLK% is irrelevant for the PG position which is what the entirety of this post is about.

How are Win Shares, RPM, Win % and WARP worthless?

I didn't say PER is a power rankings system I said that PER is created by the same gentlemen that created the power rankings. Another significant relvancy between them is that Hollinger can't explain any of them. If he can't explain why PER is a good measure of players level of play or whatever it measure how do you expect me to do it? Only thing positive about it is that it is solely calculated on your play, not how good your teammates are.

Win shares (including DWS and OWS)? solely for the reason that it is heavily dependent on having good teammates/team around you, as I mentioned above Carlos Booze actually finished around the top ten or five one year. And on that note James Harden is ranked second this year. I am not blind I see that Harden has made a great effort of becoming a better defender and it has paid of, but second in the league? come on.

RPM / Do you even know what that measures? it is still heavily dependent on having great teammates around you as are all the other.