Otto Porter

[DCZards]

It should be noted that when team with top talent fail (Lakers with Malone/Payton, Cleveland now, etc.) its precisely because they dont have guys like Porter. A heady player that knows where to be, makes the right pass, and timely offensive put back. That is his floor, but he easily has a motherliness to his game to grow into much more than that. People are overreacting to this right now...

Agree with this. Porter will be just fine. But he needs to play. Benching Porter and giving ALL of his minutes to Webster makes no sense on a lot of levels. Porter needs to the playing experience, plus he's already a much better all around player than Webby. Let's hope Witt figures that out....and quickly.

[DCZards]

It should be noted that when team with top talent fail (Lakers with Malone/Payton, Cleveland now, etc.) its precisely because they dont have guys like Porter. A heady player that knows where to be, makes the right pass, and timely offensive put back. That is his floor, but he easily has a motherliness to his game to grow into much more than that. People are overreacting to this right now...

Agree with this. Porter will be just fine. But he needs to play. Benching Porter and giving ALL of his minutes to Webster makes no sense on a lot of levels. Porter needs the playing experience, plus he's already a much better all around player than Webby. Let's hope Witt figures that out....and quickly.[/quote]

[Induveca]

He isn't getting major minutes simply because he isn't good enough. He has no strength, below average athleticism and has no jump shot outside of summer league play (much like Glen Rice Jr).

Of course I'm saying this due to his horrible play in a loss, and Noel's 17/15/5 block game last night in a win.

Looks like another wasted Grunfeld pick.

[payitforward]

I like Porter's game a lot; I bet he's going to be a terrific pro. Noel might well be better, but that's hindsight.

Noel was injured, and none of us know how likely/unlikely it was that he'd recover. Inasmuch as he *did* recover, he's looking like what everyone thought he'd be if he recovered.

Now, if there was someone other than Noel whom you thought back then that we should pick instead of Porter, then you have a legitimate gripe. Make sense?

Whether or not, it's definitely looking like we all (and the league) underestimated Adams, Muhammed & Adetokunbo. No one in the top 10 that year (except maybe Noel) is looking like as good a player. Might add Carter-Williams and Olynyk to that list!

[DCZards]

He isn't getting major minutes simply because he isn't good enough. He has no strength, below average athleticism and has no jump shot outside of summer league play (much like Glen Rice Jr).

Of course I'm saying this due to his horrible play in a loss, and Noel's 17/15/5 block game last night in a win.

Looks like another wasted Grunfeld pick.

I love Porter's all-around instinctive game. He had a steal, an assist, a rebound, and a basket within the first 5-6 minutes of coming into last night's game. Otto is going to be a very good pro. He has the work ethic and aptitude to get better. What he needs most is playing time, experience...and patience on the part of Zards fans.

[deneem4]

I like Porter's game a lot; I bet he's going to be a terrific pro. Noel might well be better, but that's hindsight.

Noel was injured, and none of us know how likely/unlikely it was that he'd recover. Inasmuch as he *did* recover, he's looking like what everyone thought he'd be if he recovered.

Now, if there was someone other than Noel whom you thought back then that we should pick instead of Porter, then you have a legitimate gripe. Make sense?

Whether or not, it's definitely looking like we all (and the league) underestimated Adams, Muhammed & Adetokunbo. No one in the top 10 that year (except maybe Noel) is looking like as good a player. Might add Carter-Williams and Olynyk to that list!

giannas
adams
gobert
adams
Shabazz
gorgui!!!

[nate33]

I like Porter's game a lot; I bet he's going to be a terrific pro. Noel might well be better, but that's hindsight.

Noel was injured, and none of us know how likely/unlikely it was that he'd recover. Inasmuch as he *did* recover, he's looking like what everyone thought he'd be if he recovered.

Now, if there was someone other than Noel whom you thought back then that we should pick instead of Porter, then you have a legitimate gripe. Make sense?

Whether or not, it's definitely looking like we all (and the league) underestimated Adams, Muhammed & Adetokunbo. No one in the top 10 that year (except maybe Noel) is looking like as good a player. Might add Carter-Williams and Olynyk to that list!

giannas
adams
gobert
adams
Shabazz
gorgui!!!

In the long run, I'm pretty confident that Porter will pan out to be better than Shabazz and Dieng, but the rest of those guys might all end up better. Gobert is a real game changer on defense, and I love Adams' potential.

[Illmatic12]

I like Porter's game a lot; I bet he's going to be a terrific pro. Noel might well be better, but that's hindsight.

Noel was injured, and none of us know how likely/unlikely it was that he'd recover. Inasmuch as he *did* recover, he's looking like what everyone thought he'd be if he recovered.

Now, if there was someone other than Noel whom you thought back then that we should pick instead of Porter, then you have a legitimate gripe. Make sense?

Whether or not, it's definitely looking like we all (and the league) underestimated Adams, Muhammed & Adetokunbo. No one in the top 10 that year (except maybe Noel) is looking like as good a player. Might add Carter-Williams and Olynyk to that list!

Vic Oladipo and Alex Len are studs. Obviously Oladipo wasn't on our radar but man, look at Len and his impact on the game:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e78nfkiwqDc[/youtube]

^Looks like a future defensive-anchor franchise center imo, and he's only 21. Just needs to stay healthy.

I like Otto but we should have drafted Noel or Len. I understand both had injury concerns surrounding them, so this mostly hindsight but still. Len in particular is massive with long arms and quite mobile, With Gortat showing that he's on a steady decline, the Wiz will be kicking themselves about that one for a while (though not as much as Cleveland will be kicking themselves over trading Wiggins )

[deneem4]

I like Porter's game a lot; I bet he's going to be a terrific pro. Noel might well be better, but that's hindsight.

Noel was injured, and none of us know how likely/unlikely it was that he'd recover. Inasmuch as he *did* recover, he's looking like what everyone thought he'd be if he recovered.

Now, if there was someone other than Noel whom you thought back then that we should pick instead of Porter, then you have a legitimate gripe. Make sense?

Whether or not, it's definitely looking like we all (and the league) underestimated Adams, Muhammed & Adetokunbo. No one in the top 10 that year (except maybe Noel) is looking like as good a player. Might add Carter-Williams and Olynyk to that list!

giannas
adams
gobert
adams
Shabazz
gorgui!!!

In the long run, I'm pretty confident that Porter will pan out to be better than Shabazz and Dieng, but the rest of those guys might all end up better. Gobert is a real game changer on defense, and I love Adams' potential.

it's crazy cause we couldve traded down with utah and gotten giannas and gorgui.
and gorgui is a monster with nice potential that couldve contributed right away..while giannas couldve been our prospect

[Jimmy Recard]

Officially worried about him

[dckingsfan]

Nivek's list - I think Gobert, Dieng, Plumlee and Giannis are already contributing in a big way. I think it is going to be tough for Porter to join that conversation this year. But the jump from last year to this year has been very good. I would think that next year he takes that jump...

In that draft I wanted us to trade down for two of Gobert, Dieng, Adams and Olynyk. But, folks pointed out correctly that it was a "weak" draft and we wouldn't have been able to trade down for a twofer

Code: Select all

RANK    2nd YEAR        TEAM    PPA
1       Gobert          UTA     173
2       Dieng           MIN     165
3       Mplumlee        BRK     157
4       Muhammad        MIN     125
5       Adams           OKC     115
6       C.Zeller        CHO     110
7       Covington       PHI     109
8       Olynyk          BOS     104
9       Len             PHO     104
10      Antetokounmpo   MIL     103
11      Canaan          HOU     98
12      Oladipo         ORL     95
13      J.Jordan        BRK     86
14      Dedmon          ORL     86
15      Roberson        OKC     85
16      Karasev         BRK     84
17      Porter          WAS     82
18      Larkin          NYK     77
19      Burke           UTA     74
20      S.Hill          IND     70
21      Schroder        ATL     65
22      Bullock         LAC     64
23      KCP             DET     63
24      H.Thompson      PHI     59
25      McLemore        SAC     59
26      Bennett         MIN     53
27      Crabbe          POR     53
28      Antic           ATL     52
29      Hummel          MIN     50
30      Hardaway        NYK     49
31      MCW             PHI     42
32      McCollum        POR     42
33      Pressey         BOS     41
34      Davies          BRK/PHI 41
35      Hamiton         MIA     38
36      Dellavedova     CLE     22
37      McCallum        SAC     17

[Kanyewest]

It is going to take some time for Porter to contribute consistently. As it stands right now, guys like Beal, Pierce, and Butler are all going to see minutes ahead of Porter. Porter is lucky for now to get time especially if Webster continues to struggle- but Porter could be sitting on the bench if he doesn't improve his 3 point percentage.

I see the two sides of the coin. One that Porter should earn his playing time and the other is that Porter needs more experience. IMO- Porter either needs to get a lot more reps in practice or even in the D-League. Or maybe the Wizards could think about cutting Beal's minutes who played 38 minutes- but then again he had his best all around game with 17 points, 8 assists, and 9 rebounds.

[Induveca]

First 1000 NBA minutes of Otto Porter:
273 points
164 rebounds
26 steals
18 blocks
42 assists
32 turnovers
65 PF
.458 efg%

First 1000 NBA minutes of Jan Vesely:
267 points
148 rebounds
39 steals
32 blocks
47 assists
60 turnovers
156 PF
53 efg%

Draw your own conclusions.

[nate33]

First 1000 NBA minutes of Otto Porter:
273 points
164 rebounds
26 steals
18 blocks
42 assists
32 turnovers
65 PF
.458 efg%

First 1000 NBA minutes of Jan Vesely:
267 points
148 rebounds
39 steals
32 blocks
47 assists
60 turnovers
156 PF
53 efg%

Draw your own conclusions.

That's actually 1078 minutes for Vesely and 988 minutes for Porter - a difference of 9%. If you adjust Vesely's numbers accordingly it would be:

Vesely:
240 points
134 rebounds
36 steals
29 blocks
43 assists
56 turnovers
151 PF
.544 TS%

Also factor that Vesely played mostly in garbage time on a team with a .303 winning percentage. He got very few minutes until the last 17 games of the season and the team was already in tank mode. They were either being blown out by playoff-caliber teams, or they were beating other tanking teams.

Finally, factor that Porter's stats include his rookie season when he was just 20 years old. Vesely's are all from age 21. If you ignore Porter's first season and compare the two at age 21, Porter looks A LOT better. Porter has played 670 minutes this year and is on pace to play well over a 1000 minutes. Take his numbers this year and extrapolating over 1000 minutes, they would look like this:

Porter:
292 points
160 rebounds
27 steals
26 blocks
48 assists
27 turnovers
59 PF
.526 TS%

Now who looks better? Porter is way less foul prone and turnover prone. He scores and rebounds a lot better. Steals, blocks, assists, and shooting percentages are roughly equal. And Porter does it all while helping his team play at a .682 winning percentage, which means he isn't killing the team on defense like Vesely did.

Finally, Porter is showing clear improvement over time. Vesely never improved at all.

I wasn't a huge fan of the Porter pick because I felt we should take Noel (I was also in favor of a trade down for Adams, but there's no way to know if that was an option); but that doesn't mean Porter is a bust. I think he's going to be a solid NBA player, maybe even a pretty good one. I only blame EG for not drafting Noel, but taking Porter over the other guys on the draft board looked reasonable at the time and I'm not going to bash EG with 20/20 hindsight.

[Induveca]

First 1000 NBA minutes of Otto Porter:
273 points
164 rebounds
26 steals
18 blocks
42 assists
32 turnovers
65 PF
.458 efg%

First 1000 NBA minutes of Jan Vesely:
267 points
148 rebounds
39 steals
32 blocks
47 assists
60 turnovers
156 PF
53 efg%

Draw your own conclusions.

That's actually 1078 minutes for Vesely and 988 minutes for Porter - a difference of 9%. If you adjust Vesely's numbers accordingly it would be:

Vesely:
240 points
134 rebounds
36 steals
29 blocks
43 assists
56 turnovers
151 PF
.544 TS%

Also factor that Vesely played mostly in garbage time on a team with a .303 winning percentage. He got very few minutes until the last 17 games of the season and the team was already in tank mode. They were either being blown out by playoff-caliber teams, or they were beating other tanking teams.

Finally, factor that Porter's stats include his rookie season when he was just 20 years old. Vesely's are all from age 21. If you ignore Porter's first season and compare the two at age 21, Porter looks A LOT better. Porter has played 670 minutes this year and is on pace to play well over a 1000 minutes. Take his numbers this year and extrapolating over 1000 minutes, they would look like this:

Porter:
292 points
160 rebounds
27 steals
26 blocks
48 assists
27 turnovers
59 PF
.526 TS%

Now who looks better? Porter is way less foul prone and turnover prone. He scores and rebounds a lot better. Steals, blocks, assists, and shooting percentages are roughly equal. And Porter does it all while helping his team play at a .682 winning percentage, which means he isn't killing the team on defense like Vesely did.

Finally, Porter is showing clear improvement over time. Vesely never improved at all.

I wasn't a huge fan of the Porter pick because I felt we should take Noel (I was also in favor of a trade down for Adams, but there's no way to know if that was an option); but that doesn't mean Porter is a bust. I think he's going to be a solid NBA player, maybe even a pretty good one. I only blame EG for not drafting Noel, but taking Porter over the other guys on the draft board looked reasonable at the time and I'm not going to bash EG with 20/20 hindsight.

You multiplied by .91, I was too lazy. Close enough.

I'm just not seeing it with Porter. Too many of the same "intangible claims" on the board. People saying Porter moves great without the ball, he just "gets it" etc. I don't see it. Many here thought Vesely could become a defensive stopper, he had a "nose for the ball" Etc. I think everyone knows year 3 after Kwame/Vesely/Singleton etc etc you know what you have in a guy.

I'm holding out hope but by January next year if his numbers remain the same, Porter will be lucky if the Wiz pick up his 4th year.

[dckingsfan]

Porter was the wrong pick - but we have EG - so whatever

But Porter is different in that he is improving year over year... WS/48 in year one, -0.006 vs year two of .103.

You can pick VORP, Nivek's rankings, Ortg, Drtg - doesn't matter - he has improved across the board. So, I guess I am more optimistic than you on Porter's long term prospects Induveca... but I could be very wrong as well.

[Induveca]

http://bit.ly/1yxjjSb

Not good company. Although Seraphin is in there too, ha....

[dckingsfan]

hehehe, well - we can have Nivek pull up a 3 year progression chart next January

I hope I win!

[nate33]

http://bit.ly/1yxjjSb

Not good company. Although Seraphin is in there too, ha....

His rookie year was awful, but since we have more data available, I'm not going to confine my opinions to just that data set.

Here's a screen of this year's 2nd year players with 500+ minutes played, sorted by WS/48. Otto ranks 10th, but the only 21 or younger players ranked above him are Len, Antetokounmpo and Adams. Factoring age, Porter looks like he'll pan out to be the 5th best pick in this draft, behind Len, Antetokounmpo, Gobert, and Adams. (Noel is another guy who might jump ahead of Porter. He doesn't show up in this screen because he has only played 1 year.)

[Induveca]

I don't disagree he could be decent for that draft. It was a putrid draft. Found it more useful to project possible upside by looking at comparables since 1985. Just not a pretty list.