Best futures of Bad Teams

[Kings2013]

I'll just do the western conference.

1. Min - Wiggins, Lavine, Dieng, Shabazz, Rubio is only 24. Their pick is 1-12 protected the next 2 years so they'll end up getting 2 more lottery players this season & next. They're looking at 2-3 allstars or superstars out of that group including the picks & a talented group around them. Very bright future.

2. Utah - Kanter, Favors, Hayward, at 22, 23, 24 should all hit their primes around the same time if they keep that group together. Exum hasn't shown much so far but extremely high ceiling. Burks & Burke both look good, Burke really broke out when Burks went down for the season, averaging 16.5 & 5 so far in January. Gobert looks like he'll be good. Then they have the other rookies besides Exum who still have the potential to break out like Hood, + another lottery pick incoming this season. They are loaded with young talent.

In the middle:

LA - Don't have the roster full of young talent like Utah & Min, but as long as Randle isn't derailed by this injury he looked like he was ready to start already. Potential allstar for sure. Clarkson looks like he will be a rotation player & Sacre is a solid backup C. 25 is my cutoff for "young" players so Ed Davis doesn't make the list. After they shut Kobe down for the season should have no problem finishing badly enough to keep a top 5 pick this season along with Houston's 1st rounder. Essentially rolled their cap space over to this summer by giving Hill a team option & taking Lin on a 1 year deal. Now that Kobe has proven the ACL didn't end his career, Nick Young is locked in, added Randle, top 5 pick, late 1st, the team should be much more appealing to free agents than it was last summer.

Den - Nurkic looks like he's going to be a starting C. They don't have much young talent but Lawson at 27 is just entering his prime & Faried at 25 should be there in a few years. They're mostly not on the worst list due to draft picks. Their own 1st should end up in the lottery, OKC should sneak into the playoffs giving them a mid 1st. They probably won't get the Memphis pick this season as it has to fall between 6-14, but they have the right to swap picks with the Knicks next year & that could very easily be a top 5 pick.

Worst:

1. Sac - They have a great young C in Cousins & not much of anything else. Rudy will continue scoring because noone else can. They gave away IT. McLemore has yet to show any potential for breaking out. They're already trying to dump Stauskas. They need to get a top 10 pick to keep it & I think they'll come very close to messing that up. They've traded every 2nd rounder from now until 2019. Just a bad situation.

I'll come back to do the East if I have time.

I don't have a problem if you think our future is bad, but I think its a little bit of a stretch to say Gay, Collison and McLemore are nothing.

Gay is a 20/6/4, fairly efficient SF.
Collison has been rated as solid so far viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1367219
Ben has had a rough stretch but has improved a lot from last year to this year, to the point where I think a lot of Kings fans anticipate him being a solid starter

Other than that yes we do have holes on the roster and organization (coaching) currently, but IMO those 4 are solid

I wouldn't say they're nothing in a current context, but this thread is about the future. Rudy is what he is.. He'll put up his stats if you win 20 games or if you win 50 games. At 28 I'm also not sure how much longer he can perform at this level, so I didn't count him towards your future.

Collison hasn't done a bad job at all, I wasn't sure he could put up these type of numbers as a starter but he's been a surprise for sure. But again, at 27 I'm not sure how much he could impact your future.

McLemore, obviously guys have broken out in their 3rd season but 2 seasons in I haven't seen anything to indicate he'll ever be more than a solid rotation player. He's only had 5 20 point games this season with his high being 23, & most of them were against lottery teams. When you see a young player that's supposed to be a future star pushed into the starting lineup & consistently getting over 33 MPG, you expect to see some games where he shows star potential & it just hasn't been there. He only grabs 3 boards, 1 assist, with a season high of 4 assists. Dunking is the only thing I've seen him do at an above average level.

Add in trading away your 1st(although you might keep it if it's top 10). Rudy & Cousins will prevent you from adding a significant F/A. Unless I'm completely wrong about McLemore & he ends up being the best or 2nd best player on that team, I see no way out of the lottery. At least not in time for players like Rudy & Collison to still be in the picture.

It is subjective, I guess we can have different definitions of the future. To me the immediate stretch would qualify, as anything can happen down the road.

It's also very subjective when your talking about unproven prospects. Some see things where others don't. For instance, I'm sure a lot of Kings fans view Stauskas and McCallum higher than some of the players that you gave credit to in that previous post. Of course it isn't an exact science.

McLemore plays along side one of the highest scoring trios in the league in Cousins, Gay and Collison. He's being groomed in the current set up as a three and D who plays off of and spaces the floor for his more prominent team mates. It's not like he's on a team where he is given free range to do what he wants.

About the lottery, and this is where it becomes very, very subjective. I like the core we have (Cousins, Gay, Collison, McLemore). Before the upheaval of the season they showed for a stretch they could compete with anyone on a nightly basis. They have formed up until recently one of the best defensively rated starting units in basketball. They need help on the roster and in the organization. We will have some flexibility moving forward as Cousins and Gays deals are below value. The bench has been putrid. If the FO gets its act together and we get an quality coach and an actual bench I like what we can do with further cohesion

[HotelVitale]

The Knicks are in a pretty good position. #1 pick + Melo + Max space - that would be a pretty quick rebuild. If Okafor turns out to be a franchise center, you're looking at some pretty great future.

Just a reminder that the team with the worst record only has a 25% chance of landing the #1 pick. In fact, it's only happened once in the last 25 years (ORL in 2004). The most likely outcome for the worst team is getting a 4th overall pick (36% chance).

[Nazrmohamed]

im obliged to mention that the Knicks are likely to have Okafor or Mudiay next year and will have about $35 million in cap space too.

Potentially; Melo, Gasol, Dragic, Okafor with Calderon, Early, Hardaway, Prigioni, Galloway all on the books as well.

Its a unique situation because while a lot of the teams being discussed are still looking for that star player, or hoping that one develops from within, the Knicks have a star player in his prime but are looking for other players to put around him.

All alot of money means to me is the opportunity to overpay a bunch of mediocre dudes. Im happy for the space but can't act like my team makes the best decisions.

[TimRobbins]

The Knicks are in a pretty good position. #1 pick + Melo + Max space - that would be a pretty quick rebuild. If Okafor turns out to be a franchise center, you're looking at some pretty great future.

Just a reminder that the team with the worst record only has a 25% chance of landing the #1 pick. In fact, it's only happened once in the last 25 years (ORL in 2004). The most likely outcome for the worst team is getting a 4th overall pick (36% chance).

Actually, the most likely outcome is getting a top 3 pick. The fact that an event with a probability of 25% happened only once in 25 years raises serious concerns about the credibility of the lottery.

[Han Solo]

:x

im obliged to mention that the Knicks are likely to have Okafor or Mudiay next year and will have about $35 million in cap space too.

Potentially; Melo, Gasol, Dragic, Okafor with Calderon, Early, Hardaway, Prigioni, Galloway all on the books as well.

Its a unique situation because while a lot of the teams being discussed are still looking for that star player, or hoping that one develops from within, the Knicks have a star player in his prime but are looking for other players to put around him.

All alot of money means to me is the opportunity to overpay a bunch of mediocre dudes. Im happy for the space but can't act like my team makes the best decisions.

Also, Mudiay or Okafor aren't locks.. They will go 1-2 and you could end up picking 3-4 just as easy.. I like Karl Towns too though.. Mark my words - That kid has more potential than Okafor.

[Nazrmohamed]

Are those percentages actual odds or historical findings?

[Scalabrine]

:x

im obliged to mention that the Knicks are likely to have Okafor or Mudiay next year and will have about $35 million in cap space too.

Potentially; Melo, Gasol, Dragic, Okafor with Calderon, Early, Hardaway, Prigioni, Galloway all on the books as well.

Its a unique situation because while a lot of the teams being discussed are still looking for that star player, or hoping that one develops from within, the Knicks have a star player in his prime but are looking for other players to put around him.

All alot of money means to me is the opportunity to overpay a bunch of mediocre dudes. Im happy for the space but can't act like my team makes the best decisions.

I hear ya and I completely agree. All we can hope is that with Phil on board the tides have turned and we will be signing smart guys that play team ball and not a bunch of me first me second players.

Judge him all you want right now for the roster we have but his hands have been pretty tied. I give him credit for sticking with his plan even though we have been losing because next year we are going to have a top pick (hopefully Okafor or Mudiay) and a boat load of extra salary to real in some solid players like Gasol, Aldridge, Dragic, Monroe, Mathews, Danny Green, Milsap, Draymond Green, Jefferson, Afflalo, Jackson, Beverly, Amir. If we grab 2 of those guys, pair them with Melo and Okafor or Mudiay, then we are back in business as a top team in the east.

[HotelVitale]

The Knicks are in a pretty good position. #1 pick + Melo + Max space.

Just a reminder that the team with the worst record only has a 25% chance of landing the #1 pick. In fact, it's only happened once in the last 25 years (ORL in 2004). The most likely outcome for the worst team is getting a 4th overall pick (36% chance).

Actually, the most likely outcome is getting a top 3 pick. The fact that an event with a probability of 25% happened only once in 25 years raises serious concerns about the credibility of the lottery.

Are those percentages actual odds or historical findings?

They're actual odds, Nazr. TimRob is right in a sense but the single most likely pick outcome for a worst-record team is still #4. Here's the odds for the top 4 picks for a team with the worst record:
#1: 25%
#2: 21.5%
#3: 17.8%
#4: 35.7%

So by more than 10% the most likely outcome is a #4 pick. But if you add up your chances of getting #1, #2, or #3, then you're 64% to get one of those three picks.

[MGB8]

Short term, Sacramento can go from being "close to good" to "really good" in a big hurry, if they get a better coach (hey Vivek, back off!) and keep their pick this year.

That team is one stretch 4 who can play defense, one reserve wing (if Stauskus isn't a complete bust he might do) and one marginal improvement at reserve PG (Sessions has been inexplicably bad, particularly on defense, this season) from being a lot like Portland.

Cousins is a beast, and maturing a bit. McElmore has flashed the big time potential that got him drafted high this season, and could be a premier SG down the line. Gay's contract may be too big, but he's been a big plus for them. Collison is a solid starter at point.

They just lack a 4 who can help the offense but get out of Cousin's way, and more importantly still rebound and play defense. Derrick Williams is a terrible basketball player on that count.


Longer term, it's really hard to tell. I think you have to go with Minnesota more than anyone else, though. Of all the "really bad" teams, they are the only ones who seem like the definitely have a future super-star - Wiggins. Those guys are the hardest to find. Yeah, they need to add a lot more, but they will have picks and even have some assets to move - including maybe Rubio - but once you hit on a true cornerstone player, it's hard to stay a really bad team for too long. Dieng is a legit NBA starter, and Lavine has legit NBA starter talent, if it's maximized. Muhammed strikes me more as a rotation guy - scorer off of the bench.

Philly has assets and some promising youth, but while MCW was rookie of the year and Noel is a legit NBA talent (along with legit NBA rotation players like Wroten, Covington, McDaniels, Grant and Sims), I don't see a "cornerstone guy" like Wiggins on that team - at least not yet.

Boston and Orlando are similar in my opinion. Both teams have a lot of good young talent, but none that are quite "cornerstone" guys. Oladipo might be there, but I don't quite see it yet. Vucevic, Payton, Harris, Fournier and probably Aaron Gordon are all legit NBA talents that are better than just rotation guys... even if Oladipo isn't cornerstone, this team could have a Hawks-like future, if they ever learn to play defense consistently.

I'm not sold on Utah. There's no cornerstone guy. Heck, I don't know that there's a "near-cornerstone" guy like the Hawks have had with Al Horford (pre-injury). I like Favors, but he strikes me as more a small 5 than a guy you want playing the 4 in the newer, faster NBA. I'm not as hyped on Gobert as many. Kanter can play beautifully on offense... and is TERRIBLE on defense. Maybe that changes, but I doubt it at this point. Hayward is a legit NBA starter, but he's overpaid. Alex Burks is more a rotation player, though he might be great "worst starter on a really good team"; he's also going to be overpaid. Also not sold on Burke or, at least as of yet, Exum.

They might prove me wrong, but...

[lakersin4]

im obliged to mention that the Knicks are likely to have Okafor or Mudiay next year and will have about $35 million in cap space too.

Potentially; Melo, Gasol, Dragic, Okafor with Calderon, Early, Hardaway, Prigioni, Galloway all on the books as well.

Its a unique situation because while a lot of the teams being discussed are still looking for that star player, or hoping that one develops from within, the Knicks have a star player in his prime but are looking for other players to put around him.

Take it from a Lakers fan that thought we'd land a top 3 pick to keep or trade for a superstar, Melo was coming, keeping Pau would be a backup plan if we couldn't do better, & IT wanted to be a Laker so bad he'd sign way below value. Expect the worst & hope for the best, that way when it lands somewhere in the middle you won't be disappointed.

Get to know those potential picks in the 5-10 range. Weigh the pros & cons of Jeff Green or Tobias Harris on near max deals. Think about how much you'd want them to offer Amare if they strike out on better bigs, then double it. Try to see the positives in giving Hibbert the max. Prepare yourself for those scenarios & landing a few 2nd tier FA's on fair contracts will feel like sweet victory.

[Blkbrd671]

Watching the magic last night, Elf and Oli did not look good next to each other. It may have been a bad game but overall it did not look effective. Also Harris is such a beast from inside the 3 point arc, it still baffles me how hes not a great 3 point shooter

[Dcebucks11]

Watching the magic last night, Elf and Oli did not look good next to each other. It may have been a bad game but overall it did not look effective. Also Harris is such a beast from inside the 3 point arc, it still baffles me how hes not a great 3 point shooter

harris is shooting 40% from 3 point arc..

[Blkbrd671]

Watching the magic last night, Elf and Oli did not look good next to each other. It may have been a bad game but overall it did not look effective. Also Harris is such a beast from inside the 3 point arc, it still baffles me how hes not a great 3 point shooter

harris is shooting 40% from 3 point arc..

Whats his career shooting percentage?

[Kev_bundles]

Watching the magic last night, Elf and Oli did not look good next to each other. It may have been a bad game but overall it did not look effective. Also Harris is such a beast from inside the 3 point arc, it still baffles me how hes not a great 3 point shooter

vic been averaging 21 points since we moved him to SG and started elf at the point ...

[jbk1234]

im obliged to mention that the Knicks are likely to have Okafor or Mudiay next year and will have about $35 million in cap space too.

Potentially; Melo, Gasol, Dragic, Okafor with Calderon, Early, Hardaway, Prigioni, Galloway all on the books as well.

Its a unique situation because while a lot of the teams being discussed are still looking for that star player, or hoping that one develops from within, the Knicks have a star player in his prime but are looking for other players to put around him.

Take it from a Lakers fan that thought we'd land a top 3 pick to keep or trade for a superstar, Melo was coming, keeping Pau would be a backup plan if we couldn't do better, & IT wanted to be a Laker so bad he'd sign way below value. Expect the worst & hope for the best, that way when it lands somewhere in the middle you won't be disappointed.

Get to know those potential picks in the 5-10 range. Weigh the pros & cons of Jeff Green or Tobias Harris on near max deals. Think about how much you'd want them to offer Amare if they strike out on better bigs, then double it. Try to see the positives in giving Hibbert the max. Prepare yourself for those scenarios & landing a few 2nd tier FA's on fair contracts will feel like sweet victory.

You sure don't sound like a Laker fan. You're entirely reasonable.

[Blkbrd671]

Watching the magic last night, Elf and Oli did not look good next to each other. It may have been a bad game but overall it did not look effective. Also Harris is such a beast from inside the 3 point arc, it still baffles me how hes not a great 3 point shooter

vic been averaging 21 points since we moved him to SG and started elf at the point ...

Does that mean they work together or that Oli's not a PG. I am not stating that Oli and Elf are bad players, just in regards to last nights game, Magic looked more effective when 1 was sitting.