Okafor or Towns? Which center is the better pick?

[E-Balla]

okafor's scoring should not be a question mark... at worst he's like pekovic who is wildly efficient just bullying people....

okafor has the edge in low post scoring.. and i think all the okafor fans are so enamored with it that they turn a blind eye towards all othier aspects of his game... not being able to defend like a good defensive center is a huge drag for a nba defense if not the biggest drag... just look at what utah and now okc have to deal with in kanter....

OKC is 9-4 with Kanter. They were 6-5 with Westbrook and without Durant prior to the trade. And this is one the worst defenders in the league. No one thinks Okafor is that bad on that end and there's no reason to think he is that bad defensively.

he would probably would have an edge on an all defense no offense type of a center... but towns is not that type of prospect.. the presence of having someone so dominant as okafor on offense has diminished how great towns has been on that end... towns would be the best freshman center on offense since duncan if it wasn't for okafor... this just doesn't happen that often...

where towns has a huge edge is on defense... and really it's not close.. you can say okafor can be a good defender but there is zero evidence to suggest that he will be other than wishful thinking... if you wanna go by the numbers or if you want to go by the eye test... there just hasn't been a defender this bad turning into something even decent...

Towns isn't close to the best offensive freshman since Duncan. He isn't even the best offensive Kentucky, Calipari, 6-11 C in the last 5 years.

Plus Duncan wasn't even close to a great scorer as a freshman. Either way your starting point in this convo is all off. Towns is very good but not close to the best we've seen on either end (does anyone think he's better than DeMarcus Cousins outside of his maturity). On the other hand Jahlil is the best offensive freshman center ever (and next to KD and Beasley possibly the best offensive freshman ever).

Go back and watch other recent one and done stars and compare Towns to them. He's in the pack. Jahlil is ahead of most of them right now.

[Marcus]

towns would be the best freshman center on offense since duncan if it wasn't for okafor...

I love Towns a much as the next guy but c'mon bro.

If you want people to remain realistic about Okafor's obvious lack of defense then you have to do the same in your statements about Towns.

Be objective about what the kid is doing on offense. He lacks consistent touch around the cup, his post game will be nullified in the league if he continues to go to the ONE move he has, and the jumper that he hasn't shown for argument sake can't really be considered any less of a myth than Jah's defensive tools that you mock since we've seen both put to use sparingly this season.

[BoutPractice]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ym5T8CXQCF0[/youtube]

Am I completely crazy in seeing a bit of Tim Duncan in this guy's play?

The length, quickness, poise, grounded playing style, boring but effective hookshots, the stoic perseverance going after his own misses...

If we want to be less blasphemous I also see Andrew Bynum... although Bynum's biggest problems were his health and most of all his mindset, and so far Towns' personality looks closer to Duncan's. If you've listened to him speak, and what others have to say about him, he seems to have a rare level of maturity for someone this young and talented.

This is a 7'0, 250 lbs freshman (and this is important, we shouldn't forget he's a freshman) center who looks the part, whose playing stye translates to the NBA, and who averages 19, 13 and 4.5 per 40 on 56% shooting and 82% free throw shooting playing for an undefeated team.

I hesitate to call him a sure thing if healthy, but... I'm pretty confident. Not QUITE as confident as I was with Davis, but possibly a bit more than I was with Embiid although his ceiling may be lower.

I have a feeling that if he ends up on the Knicks or Lakers, there will soon be conspiracy theories about how he ended up there.

[djphan]

towns would be the best freshman center on offense since duncan if it wasn't for okafor...

I love Towns a much as the next guy but c'mon bro.

If you want people to remain realistic about Okafor's obvious lack of defense then you have to do the same in your statements about Towns.

Be objective about what the kid is doing on offense. He lacks consistent touch around the cup, his post game will be nullified in the league if he continues to go to the ONE move he has, and the jumper that he hasn't shown for argument sake can't really be considered any less of a myth than Jah's defensive tools that you mock since we've seen both put to use sparingly this season.

i think ppl are being too nitpicky about towns offense... it's already at a decent level and all the talk about one move is a bit overblown... how many centers as freshman had one move that they could even use to this effect? that is right.. there aren't many....

no one is saying that towns is going to be dominant right away on offense... but it's pretty good now and he's improving at a staggering rate... this isn't hasheem thabeet... or even emeka okafor.. or andrew bogut... or chris kaman... or alex len... or noah or horford... or camby... he's WAY better than all of them were as freshman.... and probably as good as all of them as upper classmen....

the only players doing what towns is doing on offense... i posed this same question on the knick board and i got back a bunch of big men who were power forwards... how many on that list were actually centers in the pros? are you curious to know what that list is?

that list is oden, embiid, duncan, davis, ewing, olajuwon, shaq, robinson, mourning... and you have towns... there's no one else...

[Marcus]

towns would be the best freshman center on offense since duncan if it wasn't for okafor...

I love Towns a much as the next guy but c'mon bro.

If you want people to remain realistic about Okafor's obvious lack of defense then you have to do the same in your statements about Towns.

Be objective about what the kid is doing on offense. He lacks consistent touch around the cup, his post game will be nullified in the league if he continues to go to the ONE move he has, and the jumper that he hasn't shown for argument sake can't really be considered any less of a myth than Jah's defensive tools that you mock since we've seen both put to use sparingly this season.

i think ppl are being too nitpicky about towns offense... it's already at a decent level and all the talk about one move is a bit overblown... how many centers as freshman had one move that they could even use to this effect? that is right.. there aren't many....

no one is saying that towns is going to be dominant right away on offense... but it's pretty good now and he's improving at a staggering rate... this isn't hasheem thabeet... or even emeka okafor.. or andrew bogut... or chris kaman... or alex len... or noah or horford... or camby... he's WAY better than all of them were as freshman.... and probably as good as all of them as upper classmen....

the only players doing what towns is doing on offense... i posed this same question on the knick board and i got back a bunch of big men who were power forwards... how many on that list were actually centers in the pros? are you curious to know what that list is?

that list is oden, embiid, duncan, davis, ewing, olajuwon, shaq, robinson, mourning... and you have towns... there's no one else...

nobody is being nitpicky about his one move. nobody is saying he isn't good offensively.

nobody is comparing him to scrub bigs. nobody is saying he isn't a talented kid with a good NBA skillset and tons of potential.

YOU SAID best since Duncan then named 3 guys that have entered the league since then while forgetting another UK bigman named Cousins who also fits that criteria.

Duncan came into the league and was money from jump street and if you believe Karl is on that level why would you say?

no one is saying that towns is going to be dominant right away on offense

how does this fit your original statement?

All i'm saying is keep it objective. lets not get overblown with what we're saying about this kid.

Both are far from perfect and it perfectly fine to ride in either camp whilst still acknowledging the flaws and advantages of both sides. Nobody in the Jah camp should be calling him Bill Russell on defense right now the same way nobody in the Towns should be saying Karl is offensively ready to step right in and be a focal point.

[EMG518]

My thoughts at the moment.

There may not be a 19 year old player Okafor's size that has ever been as skilled on offense. He would be the most skilled offensive player his size in the the NBA on day 1. He has a smoothness/dexterity that when coupled with his improvisation and feel the results are remarkable. The concerns on defense are real though. People have stated many of his shortcomings being due to effort. There definitely is a lack of effort at times, no doubt about it but regardless of effort the problems on defense are real. He is not going to be a poor defender for his entire tenure in the NBA.

Towns on the other hand is undoubtedly a better defender but his defensive abilities may be overblown a bit. He also will never sniff what Okafor is capable of on offense.

Ultimately you have to go Okafor here in my opinion regardless of any short comings on defense.

[Marcus]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ym5T8CXQCF0[/youtube]

Am I completely crazy in seeing a bit of Tim Duncan in this guy's play?

The length, quickness, poise, grounded playing style, boring but effective hookshots, the stoic perseverance going after his own misses...

If we want to be less blasphemous I also see Andrew Bynum... although Bynum's biggest problems were his health and most of all his mindset, and so far Towns' personality looks closer to Duncan's. If you've listened to him speak, and what others have to say about him, he seems to have a rare level of maturity for someone this young and talented.

This is a 7'0, 250 lbs freshman (and this is important, we shouldn't forget he's a freshman) center who looks the part, whose playing stye translates to the NBA, and who averages 19, 13 and 4.5 per 40 on 56% shooting and 82% free throw shooting playing for an undefeated team.

I hesitate to call him a sure thing if healthy, but... I'm pretty confident. Not QUITE as confident as I was with Davis, but possibly a bit more than I was with Embiid although his ceiling may be lower.

I have a feeling that if he ends up on the Knicks or Lakers, there will soon be conspiracy theories about how he ended up there.

he's definitely progressed well as the season has gone on. I wanna see the jumper a little more, he had a couple chances in the Cincy game where he could have taken it and didn't. That's a personal preference though and something I think will come with time and confidence.

He'll need to make the adjustment of playing real minutes, defend without fouling, and be more disciplined when going after blocks.

I thought the Hampton game was a great game to try some other things in the post due to the lack of size on that team and he did just that just needs to get more comfortable and trust those other moves.

[djphan]

nobody is being nitpicky about his one move. nobody is saying he isn't good offensively.

nobody is comparing him to scrub bigs. nobody is saying he isn't a talented kid with a good NBA skillset and tons of potential.

YOU SAID best since Duncan then named 3 guys that have entered the league since then while forgetting another UK bigman named Cousins who also fits that criteria.

I think a lot of towns critics have harped on his offensive game and how it's one move... it's littered all over this thread...

cousins does sort of belong but he was also only at 3blk per 40.... his defense is not on the caliber of any of the great centers... regardless of what you think of cousins defense now in the pros... his first 5 years were not good by any measure....

Duncan came into the league and was money from jump street and if you believe Karl is on that level why would you say?

no one is saying that towns is going to be dominant right away on offense
how does this fit your original statement?

Duncan was SIXTEEN as a freshman... at 19.. towns and duncan's numbers were nearly identical.. and duncan left as a senior and 20 year old... that matters.... it's not saying much to say duncan will be better right away...

and yes i've always stated that okafor is good... and in any other year he'd be #1.... this is a special year... i just can't keep putting that disclaimer in every single of one my posts.... but by all accounts... towns is the better prospect... it's really that simple...

greg oden was picked ahead of kevin durant because he was the defensive center with some projectable offense.. and we all know how superb durant was in college... i know there were some who liked kevin durant as the #1 pick but they were by far the minority... it is the same argument now only they both fall a little short of oden and durant by a hair... i think we can all also agree on that....

and whenever there is a special defensive talent at center that's also a plus on the offensive end.. that guy eventually becomes great.... barring injury... oden was the injury .... embiid is too early but he also is a question mark due to injury... everyone else turned out great... towns is not looked at in that same light for whatever reason... probably due to the minutes... but he does...

[Marcus]

nobody is being nitpicky about his one move. nobody is saying he isn't good offensively.

nobody is comparing him to scrub bigs. nobody is saying he isn't a talented kid with a good NBA skillset and tons of potential.

YOU SAID best since Duncan then named 3 guys that have entered the league since then while forgetting another UK bigman named Cousins who also fits that criteria.

I think a lot of towns critics have harped on his offensive game and how it's one move... it's littered all over this thread...

cousins does sort of belong but he was also only at 3blk per 40.... his defense is not on the caliber of any of the great centers... regardless of what you think of cousins defense now in the pros... his first 5 years were not good by any measure....

Duncan came into the league and was money from jump street and if you believe Karl is on that level why would you say?

no one is saying that towns is going to be dominant right away on offense
how does this fit your original statement?

Duncan was SIXTEEN as a freshman... at 19.. towns and duncan's numbers were nearly identical.. and duncan left as a senior and 20 year old... that matters.... it's not saying much to say duncan will be better right away...

and yes i've always stated that okafor is good... and in any other year he'd be #1.... this is a special year... i just can't keep putting that disclaimer in every single of one my posts.... but by all accounts... towns is the better prospect... it's really that simple...

greg oden was picked ahead of kevin durant because he was the defensive center with some projectable offense.. and we all know how superb durant was in college... i know there were some who liked kevin durant as the #1 pick but they were by far the minority... it is the same argument now only they both fall a little short of oden and durant by a hair... i think we can all also agree on that....

and whenever there is a special defensive talent at center that's also a plus on the offensive end.. that guy eventually becomes great.... barring injury... oden was the injury .... embiid is too early but he also is a question mark due to injury... everyone else turned out great... towns is not looked at in that same light for whatever reason... probably due to the minutes... but he does...

I've mentioned the one move repeatedly not because I have a problem with him using it, I have a problem with it being the only thing he seems to want to do no matter what. He's gotten more patient which I think is key to why its been so much more effective lately. Its still his handicap though. Even when the defense overplays it and give him ANYTHING ELSE he still goes to that move. I feel like there's more there and he'll need to gain the confidence to use those other moves or they're gonna eat him up at the next level is all im saying.

as far as Boogie goes. YOU SAID BEST OFFENSIVE CENTER SINCE DUNCAN. why are you talking about his blocks per 40 and defense in the league?

I know how old Tim was and I know how special he was on both sides of the ball. Offensively Towns isn't where Timmy was in terms of arsenal and ability, talk numbers all you want.

it's not saying much to say duncan will be better right away...

we're only having this conversation because YOU said Karl was the best since Tim when he clearly doesn't present the total offensive package Timmy had. Boogie didn't just have a pet move he always went to, Oden could turn over either shoulder, and Joel showed much more post versatility and the faceup jumper that Karl should be showing. All 3 along with Tim brought more variety in the post and only Oden didn't show jumper capability. That makes your statement flawed. Can Karl get there? sure. Is he there right now? no sir.

BTW there's also another thread here on the draft board where someone pointed out Karl Towns and Myles Turner have similar per 40 numbers this year, are you gonna say Turner is as good or should be in the same convo as Towns?

im not arguing against Towns as the number one. I said before the season started that he had a shot at being that guy even without making the strides he's made already.

I'm not arguing against his ceiling and potential.

I'm not arguing against his skillset being more suited to the current game in the league.

I'm just not ready to call him something he's clearly not at the moment despite what the "numbers" say.

[djphan]

When I mentioned offense I'm including towns peers which include the people that are about his size that provide the defense he has.... Cousins was better so was Davis.... It was my mea culpa to say 'since Duncan'... But all the folks you mentioned turned out to be pretty good on offense.... Towns is not mentioned with these guys when he absolutely should be....

And yes I responded in that same turner thread and turner has a 2pt fg that would be good for a guard.... He is not in the same class as towns if you by the numbers....

And I'm not sure if you've just watched towns lately but he was hitting jumpers regularly earlier in the season... Its when he started to work in the post exclusively that he jumped another level and probably why you don't see him taking it a lot...

[Marcus]

When I mentioned offense I'm including towns peers which include the people that are about his size that provide the defense he has

wait. what?

And I'm not sure if you've just watched towns lately but he was hitting jumpers regularly earlier in the season... Its when he started to work in the post exclusively that he jumped another level and probably why you don't see him taking it a lot...

Been watching Karl all year and even before that. I don't question his ability to hit the jumper and I know a lot of why he doesn't show it off is due to the team he's on. When he hits the league and figures things out in a couple years im sure we'll see a lot more from him than what he'll ever be able to show off in a year at UK.

Like I said that was a preference thing just because I wanted to see it. I don't doubt its existence though.

[djphan]

[code][/code]

When I mentioned offense I'm including towns peers which include the people that are about his size that provide the defense he has

wait. what?

And I'm not sure if you've just watched towns lately but he was hitting jumpers regularly earlier in the season... Its when he started to work in the post exclusively that he jumped another level and probably why you don't see him taking it a lot...

Been watching Karl all year and even before that. I don't question his ability to hit the jumper and I know a lot of why he doesn't show it off is due to the team he's on. When he hits the league and figures things out in a couple years im sure we'll see a lot more from him than what he'll ever be able to show off in a year at UK.

Like I said that was a preference thing just because I wanted to see it. I don't doubt its existence though.

If you make a comparison its more fair to say that someone like towns is more similar to cousins and Davis and oden... Those are his peers.... He's more similar to them than say Tyler hansborough.... That's why blocks are a good filter for this...

[Marcus]

If you make a comparison its more fair to say that someone like towns is more similar to cousins and Davis and oden... Those are his peers.... He's more similar to them than say Tyler hansborough.... That's why blocks are a good filter for this...

I'm not gonna tell you how you go about it is wrong because whatever makes sense to you is what you're gonna go with. Im just confused on what blocks number have to do with anybody's offensive skillset. I get it if we were talking about center prospects and their total package on both ends of the floor but the statement was made about offense. So I'm not getting the correlation.

[djphan]

what goes into blocking a shot? there's height, wingspan, leaping ability, reaction times and defensive positioning... 4 out of those 5 things also matter on the other end of the court....

it's not a 1-1 relationship.... Player A blocks 5 shots a game... that doesn't automatically make him a 20ppg scorer... but i bet you or anyone else could guess with surprising accuracy what he's like on the offensive end... he's probably a 7fter... or an equivalent standing reach...he probably plays on the low block or close to the paint.... that's just from one number....

what that in mind... yes... it also doesn't tell you how effective they are on offense.. that much is true... but if you were to ask the question... is towns more similar to duncan or tyler hansbrough?

the answer to that question is why blks is important...

[djphan]

OKC is 9-4 with Kanter. They were 6-5 with Westbrook and without Durant prior to the trade. And this is one the worst defenders in the league. No one thinks Okafor is that bad on that end and there's no reason to think he is that bad defensively.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/3/21/8 ... ty-thunder

Defensively is where Kanter still hasn't found his bearings. The Thunder only outscore opponents by .6 points with Kanter playing because everything he does for the team on offense, they give back on defense when he's on the court. Opponents know he's not a rim protector (he allows 52.4 percent on shots he defends at the rim), so they go into attack mode, taking almost four percent more close shots when he's on the court as opposed to off, according to the league's media stats site. That's the area in which the Thunder will miss Kendrick Perkins, the player they traded for Kanter, now that Serge Ibaka is injured.

[E-Balla]

OKC is 9-4 with Kanter. They were 6-5 with Westbrook and without Durant prior to the trade. And this is one the worst defenders in the league. No one thinks Okafor is that bad on that end and there's no reason to think he is that bad defensively.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/3/21/8 ... ty-thunder

Defensively is where Kanter still hasn't found his bearings. The Thunder only outscore opponents by .6 points with Kanter playing because everything he does for the team on offense, they give back on defense when he's on the court. Opponents know he's not a rim protector (he allows 52.4 percent on shots he defends at the rim), so they go into attack mode, taking almost four percent more close shots when he's on the court as opposed to off, according to the league's media stats site. That's the area in which the Thunder will miss Kendrick Perkins, the player they traded for Kanter, now that Serge Ibaka is injured.

Those are outdated (or just straight out wrong) numbers. Per 100 they outscore opponents by 2.5 points per 100 possessions with Kanter on the floor (you can check on b-r).

[DickGrayson]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ym5T8CXQCF0[/youtube]

Am I completely crazy in seeing a bit of Tim Duncan in this guy's play?

The length, quickness, poise, grounded playing style, boring but effective hookshots, the stoic perseverance going after his own misses...

If we want to be less blasphemous I also see Andrew Bynum... although Bynum's biggest problems were his health and most of all his mindset, and so far Towns' personality looks closer to Duncan's. If you've listened to him speak, and what others have to say about him, he seems to have a rare level of maturity for someone this young and talented.

This is a 7'0, 250 lbs freshman (and this is important, we shouldn't forget he's a freshman) center who looks the part, whose playing stye translates to the NBA, and who averages 19, 13 and 4.5 per 40 on 56% shooting and 82% free throw shooting playing for an undefeated team.

I hesitate to call him a sure thing if healthy, but... I'm pretty confident. Not QUITE as confident as I was with Davis, but possibly a bit more than I was with Embiid although his ceiling may be lower.

I have a feeling that if he ends up on the Knicks or Lakers, there will soon be conspiracy theories about how he ended up there.

Everything you said I feel the same way about Towns.

Tim Duncan's college stats and Towns college stats aren't that different at all too.

Tim Duncan is such a tough comparison because Duncan is basically a top 5-8 player of all time with all his accolades and accomplishments and longevity. But the personality, posture, body type, movement, style of play....Towns fits Duncan. I do wonder how much footage Towns has seen of Duncan and try to emulate his game. I do feel like it's a reach saying Towns has MVP potential yet because I've only seen him play 23 games in total, reviewed those games and watched some detailed scouting reports with those games. Small sample size for me, but I am willing to bet money Towns can produce in the league and surprise people on what he can do offensively.

My thoughts at the moment.

There may not be a 19 year old player Okafor's size that has ever been as skilled on offense. He would be the most skilled offensive player his size in the the NBA on day 1. He has a smoothness/dexterity that when coupled with his improvisation and feel the results are remarkable. The concerns on defense are real though. People have stated many of his shortcomings being due to effort. There definitely is a lack of effort at times, no doubt about it but regardless of effort the problems on defense are real. He is not going to be a poor defender for his entire tenure in the NBA.

Towns on the other hand is undoubtedly a better defender but his defensive abilities may be overblown a bit. He also will never sniff what Okafor is capable of on offense.

Ultimately you have to go Okafor here in my opinion regardless of any short comings on defense.

I agree about Okafor's offense inside. But Okafor hasn't shown any game outside of 10 feet and he has a major problem hitting free throws right. That doesn't mean he'll always been like that. He can improve on FTs and develop a jumper. Everyone is going to say "He doesn't need to, just throw it to him down low and it's a free bucket." Right. But I feel in the NBA they will not always be able to feed Okafor downlow and it'll just make his game much better in the NBA if he can step out and hit a jumpshot. All the great bigs had some range on their jumper. Ewing had a timeless jumper.
Towns offense is a lot better than Okafor's defense.

[E-Balla]

what goes into blocking a shot? there's height, wingspan, leaping ability, reaction times and defensive positioning... 4 out of those 5 things also matter on the other end of the court....

it's not a 1-1 relationship.... Player A blocks 5 shots a game... that doesn't automatically make him a 20ppg scorer... but i bet you or anyone else could guess with surprising accuracy what he's like on the offensive end... he's probably a 7fter... or an equivalent standing reach...he probably plays on the low block or close to the paint.... that's just from one number....

what that in mind... yes... it also doesn't tell you how effective they are on offense.. that much is true... but if you were to ask the question... is towns more similar to duncan or tyler hansbrough?

the answer to that question is why blks is important...

I like your thinking here but I think you're ignoring steals completely for no reason even though it has been known to be the best single statistic to separate good prospects from bad prospects (its strange really). I found an apbr thread on draft models:

http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?t=8472

From the thread:

Steals appear to be a great predictor of NBA success. This is probably the one insight from NCAA-to-NBA projections that has gained the most traction.

And on the last page:

[djphan]

Maybe they are positive when he's on the court than off but they are not as good with him... Its complicated with so many missing time over there.... The defense when Kanter is on the court would make the the thunder the leagues worst.... And no its not just me saying that...

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/we-ne ... y-thunder/

And no okafors defense is not as bad as kanters but its closer to Kanter than towns....

[djphan]

Yes steals are important....
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the ... nba-steal/

Its not a new concept.... But just like with taking any one number there's a lot of noise.... Take briante weber of vcu... He had an astronomical steal rate... He's hurt which is a shame but all his other numbers are not what you would call a great prospect...

If you were to take steals as the sole predictor... A lot of guards would start looking pretty good.... That's why you also have to adjust for position.... And steals while a valuable indicator for a big man is just not as important as blocks are...

Greg monroe had a pretty good steal rate at georgetown..... And also mediocre block rates.. Tim Duncan had mediocre steal rates but elite block rates... You can guess who is better on defense.... That's just one example...