All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread

[HeartBreakKid]

Agree with the notion that Paul is the wild card. Honestly this is probably the 2nd or 3rd best regular season of his career, and he's never dropped off in the playoffs of late. The talking point has always been that he's being overlooked due to his consistency, but that's still right on the money to me. He's been gigantically impressive this season, and the Clippers are 2nd in SRS right now, really without the talent to justify it, and they're right in the thick of things in the Western Conference Playoffs.

I can definitely see a pretty tight case for both Harden and Curry, although I'm not actually convinced Harden is the better player. Paul can be a legitimate terror on defense, and it's always him who gets the toughest wing assignment come the ends of games. That's serious next-level stuff for a point guard. It's been noted that he's developed the midrange shot to the point where defenses have no good options to defend him. At all. They hardly missed Blake when he sat for a few weeks, and they've had injuries on and off all season and yet are looking at the #1 offense in bbalref ORTG, and I believe #2 on NBA.com

I see an airtight case for Curry at #1 due to his team's utter dominance and him being definitively the biggest cog in that, assuming he plays up to his usual level in the playoffs. But why not Paul at #2? Are you really sure you're not taking Harden because of the more dramatic story?

Great post but didn't the Clippers go 8-7 without Blake? And remember this is the same team that went 13-7 without CP3 last year. I think Paul is getting too much credit and Blake/ the rest of the starting 5 not enough. As good as they were without Blake they're 12-2 since he's returned (counting their loss in his first game back) and yes there's been a ton of injuries but J.J Reddick is averaging 22 ppg since Jamal went down.

I don't see any way this regular season for Paul is better than 2008, 2009, or 2012 and he was just as good as he is this year the last 2 years (when he was healthy) even if his on/off suggests otherwise.

The Clippers didn't have many gimmie matches during that stretch. They faced a lot of the winning WC teams and went 1-1 during the stretch without Griffin. They also did not have Jamal Charles, their bench was.....atrocious to say the least.

[bondom34]

My guess as to how it ends up (and this is a lot of speculation) is Curry/Lebron/Harden 1-3, Paul 4, and a wildcard 5. Right now its Davis/Westbrook, but I'm guessing someone has a strong postseason and breaks top 5 status. Leonard maybe, Duncan has a shot, someone on the Cavs or Hawks, someone else. Whoever makes a finals run most likely gets a guy at 5.

[MO12msu]

Agree with the notion that Paul is the wild card. Honestly this is probably the 2nd or 3rd best regular season of his career, and he's never dropped off in the playoffs of late. The talking point has always been that he's being overlooked due to his consistency, but that's still right on the money to me. He's been gigantically impressive this season, and the Clippers are 2nd in SRS right now, really without the talent to justify it, and they're right in the thick of things in the Western Conference Playoffs.

I can definitely see a pretty tight case for both Harden and Curry, although I'm not actually convinced Harden is the better player. Paul can be a legitimate terror on defense, and it's always him who gets the toughest wing assignment come the ends of games. That's serious next-level stuff for a point guard. It's been noted that he's developed the midrange shot to the point where defenses have no good options to defend him. At all. They hardly missed Blake when he sat for a few weeks, and they've had injuries on and off all season and yet are looking at the #1 offense in bbalref ORTG, and I believe #2 on NBA.com

I see an airtight case for Curry at #1 due to his team's utter dominance and him being definitively the biggest cog in that, assuming he plays up to his usual level in the playoffs. But why not Paul at #2? Are you really sure you're not taking Harden because of the more dramatic story?

Great post but didn't the Clippers go 8-7 without Blake? And remember this is the same team that went 13-7 without CP3 last year. I think Paul is getting too much credit and Blake/ the rest of the starting 5 not enough. As good as they were without Blake they're 12-2 since he's returned (counting their loss in his first game back) and yes there's been a ton of injuries but J.J Reddick is averaging 22 ppg since Jamal went down.

I don't see any way this regular season for Paul is better than 2008, 2009, or 2012 and he was just as good as he is this year the last 2 years (when he was healthy) even if his on/off suggests otherwise.

You've gotta take into account strength of schedule during both stretches. Last year, Paul went out during the easiest stretch of the Clipper's schedule, this year Blake went out during without a doubt the hardest part of the Clipper's schedule.

When people looked at that stretch after Blake went down, most figured a losing record was inevitable. Also it's true that they're 12-2 with Blake back, but this is easily the easiest part of their schedule, they've had the hardest SOS of the western conference contenders for most of the year. Not taking anything away from Blake, but just adding some context to these runs.

[NinjaSheppard]

Clippers losses without Blake this year
@OKC (healthy OKC team + no JJ, blowout)
Memphis (by 3)
@Houston (by 5)
Portland (no Crawford/Barnes in OT)
@GS (no Crawford, blowout)
@Dallas (blowout)

Wins
@Dallas (Dallas was really shorthanded, blowout)
Houston (Hou on a second of a back to back, blowout)
SAS (Spurs were healthy and had all their guys, close game)
SAC (blowout)
@Memphis (blowout)
@Chicago (Chicago was shorthanded, Butler + Gibson got hurt)
@Minnesota (no Barnes/Crawford but its Minnesota)
Minnesota (blowout)
@OKC (blowout, Ibaka played)

relatively impressive but they caught some breaks in the wins and they were without more than just Griffin in some of those games.

[Doctor MJ]

So it's become a bit of a sport for me refreshing the Real Plus Minus page and seeing Kawhi climb.

He now ranks 2nd in RPM behind only Curry, and his RPM-based WAR is 6th behind only Harde, Curry, Paul, LeBron, and Davis.

All normal caveats exist about RPM being far from a perfect stat, but the sheer spectacle of it has me hooked.

[Ballerhogger]

So it's become a bit of a sport for me refreshing the Real Plus Minus page and seeing Kawhi climb.

He now ranks 2nd in RPM behind only Curry, and his RPM-based WAR is 6th behind only Harde, Curry, Paul, LeBron, and Davis.

All normal caveats exist about RPM being far from a perfect stat, but the sheer spectacle of it has me hooked.

Its pretty impressive to see. I wonder if he would be first if he didnt have that eye injury.

[Reservoirdawgs]

So it's become a bit of a sport for me refreshing the Real Plus Minus page and seeing Kawhi climb.

He now ranks 2nd in RPM behind only Curry, and his RPM-based WAR is 6th behind only Harde, Curry, Paul, LeBron, and Davis.

All normal caveats exist about RPM being far from a perfect stat, but the sheer spectacle of it has me hooked.

How reliable is WAR in basketball? Is it equivalent/better/worse than a measure like RAPM?

[Doctor MJ]

Posting this everywhere relevant: Zach Lowe's awards ballots with reasoning. Great place to start your thinking.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-a ... ndividual/

[Doctor MJ]

So it's become a bit of a sport for me refreshing the Real Plus Minus page and seeing Kawhi climb.

He now ranks 2nd in RPM behind only Curry, and his RPM-based WAR is 6th behind only Harde, Curry, Paul, LeBron, and Davis.

All normal caveats exist about RPM being far from a perfect stat, but the sheer spectacle of it has me hooked.

How reliable is WAR in basketball? Is it equivalent/better/worse than a measure like RAPM?

Well note I called it "RPM-based WAR". It bothers me to be honest that terms like WAR and VORP can be constructed in a variety of ways in basketball based on whatever stat you prefer, and you should be skeptical of all of them.

But at the same time, +/- stats realistically could use a cumulative variant that estimates total player impact throughout the year. Calling that WAR, if you scale it correctly, is as good a name as any.

And yeah, it's based on RPM so it's no more reliable than RPM. That's still more reliable than RAPM technically speaking though - I can elaborate on that if you're confused about the differences.

[lorak]

Posting this everywhere relevant: Zach Lowe's awards ballots with reasoning. Great place to start your thinking.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-a ... ndividual/

I'm glad he has CP3 so high. He's playing really amazing year (and no games missed!), but kind of underrated in comparison to great scorers like Harden and Curry. I think he deserves to be in top 3 after regular season and maybe even has case for 2nd place behind Curry (Steph is IMHO clearly MVP and the best player this season). Then I have Davis 4th and LeBron 5th. Westbrook outside of my top 5, because as much as I like to watch his one man show I think it's not the best way to play basketball (probably something similar happened with Wilt in his early years).

PS
And that part about Gobert is fantastic:
You know how teams in practice have assistant coaches hold up huge pads to simulate the presence of shot-blockers at the rim? Multiple teams have casually mentioned to me that they refer to those pads as “Gobert” — as in, “LOOK OUT FOR GOBERT!”

[penbeast0]

So it's become a bit of a sport for me refreshing the Real Plus Minus page and seeing Kawhi climb.

He now ranks 2nd in RPM behind only Curry, and his RPM-based WAR is 6th behind only Harde, Curry, Paul, LeBron, and Davis.

All normal caveats exist about RPM being far from a perfect stat, but the sheer spectacle of it has me hooked.

How reliable is WAR in basketball? Is it equivalent/better/worse than a measure like RAPM?

Well note I called it "RPM-based WAR". It bothers me to be honest that terms like WAR and VORP can be constructed in a variety of ways in basketball based on whatever stat you prefer, and you should be skeptical of all of them.

But at the same time, +/- stats realistically could use a cumulative variant that estimates total player impact throughout the year. Calling that WAR, if you scale it correctly, is as good a name as any.

And yeah, it's based on RPM so it's no more reliable than RPM. That's still more reliable than RAPM technically speaking though - I can elaborate on that if you're confused about the differences.

I may be confused now, but I get really confused when people elaborate.

[MisterHibachi]

My ballot right now:

1. Curry: best player on the best team. Clearly has a tremendous impact, the plus-minus, the stats, the wins. Dude's got the whole package. Dominating the conference at a historical level. He's clearly number 1.
-Gap-
2. Harden: tremendous regular season, especially with the team around him. Kept his team competitive in a bloodbath of a conference. Playoffs will be interesting given his history.
3. CP: dude is just ridiculous. This is probably his peak. His control of the game is the best in the league. His numbers are ridiculous too. I think per possession LeBron is better, but CP's played 82.
4. LeBron: J Lei posted an article in the LeBron thread on his RPM post-injury break, best in the league. Agrees with the eye test. If he had kept up that level of play from November, he would be by far number 1. But 3 months isn't bad at all. Fully expect him to move up based on the playoffs, but unless Curry flops it's hard to see him taking that #1 spot.
5. Westbrook/Davis: can't decide between these two. Playoffs will decide for me.

I almost put CP over Harden. I'm so impressed with Paul's play this year. Dude is just the perfect point guard. Really hope they go deep in the playoffs. Per possession I think LeBron is the best out of these guys. I'm struggling with how to rank him given that I think he's the best and most impactful player in the league but missed those games early in the season; even before his injury he was having a pretty big impact, but post injury he's been far and away the best player in the league. I could see him taking the #1 spot if he has a 2014 type post season. I don't think Harden's gap on the ones below him is that big, and I'm not expecting him to outplay CP or LeBron in the playoffs so I'm expecting him to move down. Plus I simply think those guys are better players than him. Honestly, I might just end up finishing with a ballot that ranks who I think is the best player rather than who had the best season. Still struggling with that but that's my list for now.

[Dr Spaceman]

3. CP: dude is just ridiculous. This is probably his peak. His control of the game is the best in the league. His numbers are ridiculous too.

I almost put CP over Harden. I'm so impressed with Paul's play this year. Dude is just the perfect point guard. Really hope they go deep in the playoffs.

Glad to see Paul getting some love, I pointed out that there isn't a whole lot of solid rationale to have him definitely behind Harden, and I think he's my 2 at this point. I think Curry is #1 right now, but literally any of LeBron Paul or Davis can reason ably be 2, and after the playoffs I could see some pushing #1. Crazy year.

[MisterHibachi]

3. CP: dude is just ridiculous. This is probably his peak. His control of the game is the best in the league. His numbers are ridiculous too.

I almost put CP over Harden. I'm so impressed with Paul's play this year. Dude is just the perfect point guard. Really hope they go deep in the playoffs.

Glad to see Paul getting some love, I pointed out that there isn't a whole lot of solid rationale to have him definitely behind Harden, and I think he's my 2 at this point. I think Curry is #1 right now, but literally any of LeBron Paul or Davis can reason ably be 2, and after the playoffs I could see some pushing #1. Crazy year.

Yeah, I think I might put Paul over Harden. Need to think it over more.

[Doctor MJ]

How reliable is WAR in basketball? Is it equivalent/better/worse than a measure like RAPM?

Well note I called it "RPM-based WAR". It bothers me to be honest that terms like WAR and VORP can be constructed in a variety of ways in basketball based on whatever stat you prefer, and you should be skeptical of all of them.

But at the same time, +/- stats realistically could use a cumulative variant that estimates total player impact throughout the year. Calling that WAR, if you scale it correctly, is as good a name as any.

And yeah, it's based on RPM so it's no more reliable than RPM. That's still more reliable than RAPM technically speaking though - I can elaborate on that if you're confused about the differences.

I may be confused now, but I get really confused when people elaborate.

For beast or anyone else: Feel free to ask for more of an explanation on any aspect of this.

[ceiling raiser]

Right now, thinking:

1) Curry - Obvious pick for me, tremendous lift to the top team in the league.
2) CP3 - Love how he's played this year on both ends. Offense has been ridiculous down the stretch.
3) LeBron - Defense has been better this year to me, and the team offense (and overall SRS) terrific since coming back.
4) Harden - Has mastered the corner three, in terms of creating for himself and others. That being said, I don't know if I can slot him above the other three. I'm always weary of one-man carry jobs. Might reassess in the playoffs.
5) I'd love to put Davis here, but I'm still concerned that his defense isn't translating well into RAPM. Incredible roll man and midrange shooter. I'm also looking forward to reassessing Westbrook after the season's over. For now, my pick is probably Leonard. He's missed time, but SA has improved dramatically since his return. I also don't mind missed games, so long as a guy is healthy for the playoffs. He also dominated in J.E.'s RAPM around the midpoint of the season: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ra ... _2015.html which was before this Spurs' hot streak really started. Wouldn't be surprised if he rated higher.

I wouldn't be surprised if my order shuffles after the postseason.

[HeartBreakKid]

For those who are not particularity high on Anthony Davis. Where would you rank someone like say - Karl Malone in this years list? A lot of people are pointing out tweaks in AD's defense, but is he overall a worse defender than someone like K Malone?

As finishers I think they are pretty comparable as well.

[fuzzy_dunlop]

^
You're right that he's probably as good as Karl ever was defensively, but Malon at his best was quite a bit better on offense (perhaps inflated by Stockton's presence, but still).

[lorak]

5) I'd love to put Davis here, but I'm still concerned that his defense isn't translating well into RAPM.

Well, he ranks very high in RPM and also in EvanZ's NPI RAPM. So while I see why people have doubts about his D, I'm not sure he is really that bad as some thinks

[JLei]

Posting this everywhere relevant: Zach Lowe's awards ballots with reasoning. Great place to start your thinking.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-a ... ndividual/

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-awards-ballot-part-2-putting-in-a-team-effort/

And here's where I think the baby he just had has made him miss a ton of the season and you may need to discount some of his opinions to what he saw earlier in the season.

Jimmy Butler 1st team all defense is absolutely egregious.

That is 100% a reputation pick and not reflective of what has happened this season. As he has taken more offensive load he became a much less effective defender, RPM has him as a net negative this year. And Jimmy personally has said so himself that he has not been a good defender this year.

I'm fine with him 3rd team all-NBA because of his offensive improvement but 1st team defense is ridiculous.

And I think Zach is the best writer in the business.