Otto Porter Part 2

[nate33]

It's funny, but then Gortat might become the player we could least afford to get a serious injury. We need to add quality depth long-term at center. That's why I'd love to add Ajinca with the MLE this offseason. My next choice would be Brandan Wright. Wright was traded twice during the season, and I think that ended up keeping his value down to the MLE level. Same with Ajinca's lack of playing time - but we shall see.

Agreed. The smart move would be to lock up a guy this summer to a long term contract (when the MLE is still in the $6M a year range), so that we're not scrambling to fill that hole in 2016 at a time when free agent prices are being bid up with all that extra TV money. By 2016, backup centers will cost $9M a year, if not more.

[tontoz]

I'd play hardball with Beal just like Atlanta did with Josh Smith after his rookie deal. Smith was a RFA and the Hawks didn't even make him an offer. They told him to find an offer and then they would consider matching it. Smith eventually signed a deal with Memphis which the Hawks matched. That deal was a pretty good value given Smith's production at the time.

Giving the max to Beal would be completely absurd. He hasn't proven much yet.

The problem with that strategy is that a max salary this summer starts at about $16M, while a max salary next summer will start at $23M (at a time when everybody is going to have cap room). Playing hardball means that we'd be gambling that someone else doesn't come along and offer crazy money. I'd be willing to pay $12-14M a year for the peace of mind of him not being offered crazy money and screwing up our KD2DC plan. Beal would have to consider it because of his injury issues. Better to lock in a 4-year, $60M deal now than get hurt next season and kill his market value.

Now that i think about it his cap hold could be a problem. Would we even have enough to sign KD with Beal's cap hold?

I am not worried about another team overpaying Beal. If they want him that badly they can have him. If he is willing to sign a reasonable deal this summer than i guess it is worth considering but i am still skeptical. Locking up average players for big money isn't a recipe for success.

Beal still struggles with his shot. Even in the playoffs it seems like he puts up at least one airball per game on a routine jumper.

[nate33]

Beal's cap hold is $11M. Back when the salary cap was projected to jump to just $78M or so, the cap situation was a real issue. With the cap that low, we needed to refrain from extending Beal until after we inked Durant (kinda like what San Antonio is doing with Kawhi Leonard). But now that the cap is projected to reach $90M, we no longer need to concern ourselves much. We can go ahead and extend Beal for something in the $12-15M range this summer. His cap hit will then count for $15M (for argument's sake) instead of $11M, but we can afford because we have so much extra cap room.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

BBIQ doesn't generate much interest in the draft discussions but it sure does help when the games start. I didnt watch him at Gtown but watching him earlier this year it was pretty clear that he is a high IQ player and it is definitely showing now.

His jumper is much better than i thought it would be.

Otto's high bball IQ and rebounding were things that stuck out immediately at G'Town, but his being able to knock down the 3 with regularity has been a real pleasant surprise. I wasn't expecting OP to become a three pt. threat this early in his career. I thought it would take a couple of years. Would love to see him become truly Otto-matic from 3 pt. range.

I've also been impressed by how good Otto has played man-to-man D, where his length has been a major factor. Didn't see a lot of that at G'Town.

Otto has been one of those pleasant, really rare surprises. Wow, where did all that good play come from so suddenly?

(nate's PPE no doubt has helped)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Stud any year playoff numbers for Otto -- keep it up.

But I don't see him as much like Ariza -- or like Prince for that matter. As to Pippen... might be just a little early to compare him to a HOF player! -- but hey, that'd be great if it happened.

I don't know why the "are we/aren't we missing Ariza" question keeps coming up for you. Or even the idea that Porter is somehow a replacement for Ariza. Pretty much everyone seems to have had Otto #3 on their BPA list in the '13 draft, not just us (leaving aside the Noel injury wild card).

I love your vision of the future, btw -- PP leaves KD arrives, we're in the title hunt for some years. I assume that's now with Randy as coach?

Or do you still want Ted to "eat the contract" -- i.e. fire him the day the season ends?

Forget KD. I don't want him now. He's a SF. I guess he can be a Dirk or LMA type PF, but he'd require high usage. His salary would force Beal off the team. Porter would be in OKC. (Nate33, how much was I wrong. I don't know jack about cap).

I want Henson.

Maybe weed - bust free and clean Larry Sanders via trade.

Washington has a big three who already are killing it at less than 25 years old.

They need core role players. Ed Davis would be great.

Much as I love Boogie Cousins, I love this team chemistry more. He would have to KNOW his place. Rebounds, defefense, passing, kicking the other teams ass. Redeem hi image like Zach Randolph.

(God, Thank You for what You allowed me to tell Zach at Pete Newell's)

Memphis is where both my now deceased parents were born. My sister lives there. Go Grizzlies! I remember people were calling Zach a thug and an empty stats guy...

With the right Boogie Cousins this Wizards would win the NBA title. Yes, there would be much drama. But perhaps Harmony could be achieved. ...I want DMC..for DMV...no longer KD.

Durant has a foot issue, potentially.

You may find the bottom half of the page interesting: viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1268608&start=1180#start_here

Thanks, fish.

[stevemcqueen1]

I'd play hardball with Beal just like Atlanta did with Josh Smith after his rookie deal. Smith was a RFA and the Hawks didn't even make him an offer. They told him to find an offer and then they would consider matching it. Smith eventually signed a deal with Memphis which the Hawks matched. That deal was a pretty good value given Smith's production at the time.

Giving the max to Beal would be completely absurd. He hasn't proven much yet.

The problem with that strategy is that a max salary this summer starts at about $16M, while a max salary next summer will start at $23M (at a time when everybody is going to have cap room). Playing hardball means that we'd be gambling that someone else doesn't come along and offer crazy money. I'd be willing to pay $12-14M a year for the peace of mind of him not being offered crazy money and screwing up our KD2DC plan. Beal would have to consider it because of his injury issues. Better to lock in a 4-year, $60M deal now than get hurt next season and kill his market value.

Now that i think about it his cap hold could be a problem. Would we even have enough to sign KD with Beal's cap hold?

I am not worried about another team overpaying Beal. If they want him that badly they can have him. If he is willing to sign a reasonable deal this summer than i guess it is worth considering but i am still skeptical. Locking up average players for big money isn't a recipe for success.

Beal still struggles with his shot. Even in the playoffs it seems like he puts up at least one airball per game on a routine jumper.

Yeah he shot that one airball in game one. Nevermind he dropped 28 and won us the game.

[tontoz]

Yeah he shot that one airball in game one. Nevermind he dropped 28 and won us the game.

He has been putting up airballs in every game lately. He shot 41% in that game and is shooting 39% in the playoffs. Let's break the bank for him.

[DCZards]

Yeah he shot that one airball in game one. Nevermind he dropped 28 and won us the game.

He has been putting up airballs in every game lately. He shot 41% in that game and is shooting 39% in the playoffs. Let's break the bank for him.

I think the point is that every NBA player who shoots a lot of jumpers is going to shoot some airballs...and that you don't make business decisions based on a few airballs.

[dandridge 10]

If Otto continues to play like he has been, he will quickly become my favorite Wizards player. Just like his hustle all over the court and willingness to do all the dirty work.

[tontoz]

Yeah he shot that one airball in game one. Nevermind he dropped 28 and won us the game.

He has been putting up airballs in every game lately. He shot 41% in that game and is shooting 39% in the playoffs. Let's break the bank for him.

I think the point is that every NBA player who shoots a lot of jumpers is going to shoot some airballs...and that you don't make business decisions based on a few airballs.

But you do make business decisions based on three years of play with minimal improvement. Among 2s this season Beal ranked;

28th in PER
40th in TS
34th in assist rate
41st in turnover rate
39th in rebounding rate

Signing him for big money this summer hoping for big improvement going forward would be a major gamble.

[fishercob]

If Otto continues to play like he has been, he will quickly become my favorite Wizards player. Just like his hustle all over the court and willingness to do all the dirty work.

Right there with you; may have to get a jersey.

[DCZards]

He has been putting up airballs in every game lately. He shot 41% in that game and is shooting 39% in the playoffs. Let's break the bank for him.

I think the point is that every NBA player who shoots a lot of jumpers is going to shoot some airballs...and that you don't make business decisions based on a few airballs.

But you do make business decisions based on three years of play with minimal improvement. Among 2s this season Beal ranked;

28th in PER
40th in TS
34th in assist rate
41st in turnover rate
39th in rebounding rate

Signing him for big money this summer hoping for big improvement going forward would be a major gamble.

That's better, tontoz. The airball justification for not resigning Beal just doesn't fly (pun intended).

But I'd still try to sign Beal at the right price. Something in the $12-14 mil range that has been suggested. Kid is only 21 and he's going to get a LOT better. I'm convinced of that. In fact, I'd argue that we've since steady improvement in the last couple of months, especially now that he's being more aggressive offensively...taking more shots and attacking the basket. He's also rebounding and passing very well.

BB needs to stay healthy and work on things like his handle, but I believe the Wall-Beal combo is one worth banking on for the long term.

[tontoz]

That's better, tontoz. The airball justification for not resigning Beal just doesn't fly (pun intended).

But I'd still try to sign Beal at the right price. Something in the $12-14 mil range that has been suggested. Kid is only 21 and he's going to get a LOT better. I'm convinced of that. In fact, I'd argue that we've since steady improvement in the last couple of months, especially now that he's being more aggressive offensively...taking more shots and attacking the basket. He's also rebounding and passing very well.

BB needs to stay healthy and work on things like his handle, but I believe the Wall-Beal combo is one worth banking on for the long term.

Can you tell me tomorrow's lottery numbers?

Sure he might improve, maybe even a lot. But he might not. There are plenty of guys who simply don't get better. You don't know if he will improve, or how much, and neither do I. We can only guess.

He is a terrible midrange shooter and has been since he came into the league. He is worse than Wall, by a lot, and has shown no signs of improving.

He has been taking it to the basket more in the playoffs but is still bricking way too many open shots.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Without looking at the numbers, seems to me since the start of the playoffs Porter has been giving us Ariza-like production with his scoring and D.

[tontoz]

Yeah Witt won't be able to leave Porter on the bench next year. He will be getting plenty of time when healthy.

[FAH1223]

If Otto continues to play like he has been, he will quickly become my favorite Wizards player. Just like his hustle all over the court and willingness to do all the dirty work.

Moving without the ball has been amazing. Last night he made a great cut and Beal found him for the layup, thought it should have been an And1.

[tontoz]

In 193 playoff minutes Porter has only 2 turnovers. He is averaging 8 rebounds and has an EFG of 62.8%.

Like a lot of people i have wanted to see him get more minute for awhile but certainly wasn't expecting this type of production.

[nate33]

Porter was incredible in Game 2. With Wall out, he seemed even more aggressive and was actively looking to make plays on offense. And he was succeeding.

It's really incredible what confidence will do for a guy. I can't believe this is the same player who was invisible in January and February. He's now a legit impact player. Heck, he has arguably been the 3rd best player on the team during the playoffs, behind only Wall and Gortat.

The beauty of it is that I think everything except the .500 3P% is sustainable over the long term. The guy has suddenly become an above-average starter at his position. Next year, I fully expect to see him play 32+ minutes a game, post a PER above 15 with efficient scoring (albeit with a low usage rate), and play stopper-caliber defense.

Heck, the development of Porter is probably a bigger deal for our future championship hopes than whether or not we win this Atlanta series.

[fishercob]

Porter was incredible in Game 2. With Wall out, he seemed even more aggressive and was actively looking to make plays on offense. And he was succeeding.

It's really incredible what confidence will do for a guy. I can't believe this is the same player who was invisible in January and February. He's now a legit impact player. Heck, he has arguably been the 3rd best player on the team during the playoffs, behind only Wall and Gortat.

The beauty of it is that I think everything except the .500 3P% is sustainable over the long term. The guy has suddenly become an above-average starter at his position. Next year, I fully expect to see him play 32+ minutes a game, post a PER above 15 with efficient scoring (albeit with a low usage rate), and play stopper-caliber defense.

Heck, the development of Porter is probably a bigger deal for our future championship hopes than whether or not we win this Atlanta series.

THIS.

If Wall can't come back and the Wiz love in 5, I'll be bummed about that for sure. But I will be thrilled about what Porter has proven to the NBA world and to himself. I believe he is a star in the making -- not in the marketability sense or even in terms of raw stats; I think the totality of what he does will create a huge impact on the Wizards winning.

Otto's proving himself -- and Pierce's dominance as a stretch 4 -- also provide a lot of certainty that can guide our offseason moves. We don't need to bring back all of Hump, Blair and Gooden -- particular with all of the seemingly viable stretch 4 options in the draft.

I think Hump has some pretty decent trade value and it could make good sense to move him.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Sorry I if this was brought up already, but anyone notice the improvement seems to have come with him losing the glasses?