mojo13 wrote:Perhaps the Canadian talent pool is actually thinning out a bit? Maybe just more of a temporary trough at the high end as I agree the depth is still there. 2015/2016 is first time in 5 years or so that I don't think there is a sure fire NBA talent playing in the NCAA.
Who is there?
Kyle Wiltjer is the first that comes to mind, but he has serious critisisms about his athletism and ability to defend - enough that he can easily go undrafted.
Dillon Brooks perhaps? But I think he has a long way to go - he is an udersized 4 right now.
XRM has a very good shot, but I don't see him showing up on draft boards yet.
I'd be very suprised if any that you mention above grow into NBA players. Maybe Montaque Gill-Ceasar - but I don't see it yet (certainly a chance). Dyshawn Pierre? Tough as he is a little undersized, but you you never know (longshot).
Jamal Murray would be my next high probability guess, but he is not even in NCAA yet. Anyone else currently in the NCAA I am missing you guys think is a future NBA player?
I think you nailed it - temporary trough at the high end, but the depth is still there (and in fact is probably better than ever).
In the high school classes of 2010 and 2011, we had three elite (RSCI top 40) guys each class:
Thompson (9), Joseph (13), and Powell (38) in 2010; and Birch (11), Kabongo (13) and Wiltjer (19) in 2011.
(That was more than we had in the previous 12 years combined (only Dalembert, Brown, Famutimi, and Theo Davis)).
We followed that up with Bennett (6) in 2012; Wiggins (1) and Ennis (23) in 2013 (XRM just missing at 43); and then Lyles (12) in 2014.
So 10 top 40 guys in five classes. Of those 10, seven will play in NBA (six already have and Lyles will), one is close (Birch), and one is still a possibility (Wiltjer).
Aside from Wiltjer, that surge of talent is already through the NCAA. The Class of 2015 has no one who I expect to make the NBA, let alone come out anytime soon (Poyser is the top ranked in the class, at 97).
So I think the only Cdns likely to be drafted in 2016 are Wiltjer (maybe 2nd round) and Murray. Very slim chance for Dyshawn Pierre.
I could see no Canadians being drafted in 2017 or 2018 (maybe Brooks, XRM, Gill-Caesar or Justin Jackson).
Our next really elite guys - Shi-ttu and Barrett Jr. won't be draft eligible until 2019 and 2020.
But we have some good depth between now and then.
The class of 2016 has Murray. Jackson may also be top 40 once the RSCI 2016 rankings come out. Plus it has Washington, Narain, Ekiyor, Cyrus, McEwen, and Tshimanga being likely or possible top 100s. It is probably our deepest class ever. With that many guys in the 40-100 range, chance that one of them blows up and ends up getting drafted.
Early to tell on class of 2017, but Isaiah Jasey is currently 14th per Scout, 20th per Rivals, and 29th per 247 Sports.
Oshae Brissett is 26th, 47th, and 40th, respectively.
And then return to elite guys with Shi-ttu and Barrett Jr. in 2018 and 2019.