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Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2)

Moderators: nate33, montestewart, LyricalRico

IS IT TIME TO FIRE ERNIE GRUNFELD?

1) Yes, I believe it is time for EG to go now.
57
64%
2) Ted should let him go at the end of the season.
21
24%
3) No, Ted needs to give him more time..(DESPITE THE FACT ERNIE HAS BEEN GM SINCE 2003 AND WASHINGTON HAS THE THIRD WORST RECORD IN THE LEAGUE IN THAT SPAN)
11
12%
 
Total votes: 89

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Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1621 » by closg00 » Tue Jun 9, 2015 9:16 pm

MikeTheKid wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:Wasn't Thompson picked #4, meaning he wouldn't have been there at #6?


Klay went 11th in 2011, Tristan Thompson was 4. EG could've possibly traded down to 10 and still got Klay.


AND, it would have been a perfectly defensible position to have taken Klay at 6, we took Beal at 3.


#FireErnie ~ Because he believed Stephen Curry couldn't help us and Jan Vesely could.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1622 » by LyricalRico » Tue Jun 9, 2015 9:37 pm

closg00 wrote:
MikeTheKid wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:Wasn't Thompson picked #4, meaning he wouldn't have been there at #6?


Klay went 11th in 2011, Tristan Thompson was 4. EG could've possibly traded down to 10 and still got Klay.


AND, it would have been a perfectly defensible position to have taken Klay at 6, we took Beal at 3.


Defensible in hindsight, sure. But at the time? I dunno (speaking specifically about board reaction). Seems like most here wanted a forward at the time (Vesely, Kawhi, the Morris twins, etc.). My guess is most here would have initially objected to taking guard. Heck, IIRC many still wanted Nick Young re-signed longterm back then. Maybe I just missed it, but I really don't recall much Klay Thompson talk around here at the time.

Beal, on the other hand, had a TON of buzz around here. So I'm not sure you can compare those drafts. Still, interesting to know they were considering Thompson on at least some level. Definitely disappointing that 2011 didn't work out better for us.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1623 » by fishercob » Tue Jun 9, 2015 10:43 pm

Longest tenured General Managers in the NBA.

Code: Select all

   Name   Since      Win%      Titles   Finals   Vesely
   Riley   1995      .567       3          2      0
   Kupchak 2000      .585       4          2      0
   Buford  2002      .708       4          1      0
   Ainge   2003      .534       1          1      0   
   ERNIE   2003      .416       0          0      1
   Morey   2007      .600       0          0      0
   Presti  2007      .561       0          1      0


Ernie's Wizards have won three playoff series

Ted's patience with Ernie is . . . atypical.

PS: The Vesely column is mostly in jest, so when you leap to Ernie's defense, try to avoid others' draft busts.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1624 » by payitforward » Wed Jun 10, 2015 2:39 am

LyricalRico wrote:
closg00 wrote:
MikeTheKid wrote:
Klay went 11th in 2011, Tristan Thompson was 4. EG could've possibly traded down to 10 and still got Klay.


AND, it would have been a perfectly defensible position to have taken Klay at 6, we took Beal at 3.


Defensible in hindsight, sure. But at the time? I dunno (speaking specifically about board reaction). Seems like most here wanted a forward at the time (Vesely, Kawhi, the Morris twins, etc.). My guess is most here would have initially objected to taking guard. Heck, IIRC many still wanted Nick Young re-signed longterm back then. Maybe I just missed it, but I really don't recall much Klay Thompson talk around here at the time.

Beal, on the other hand, had a TON of buzz around here. So I'm not sure you can compare those drafts. Still, interesting to know they were considering Thompson on at least some level. Definitely disappointing that 2011 didn't work out better for us.

I wouldn't have taken Klay Thompson #6, and yes it's hindsight to call passing on him at that spot "a mistake."

But, I would have taken Leonard. Or traded down to pick up both Thompson and oh... Vucevic (or even still get Leonard?), lets say. Then Faried or Harris @ no. 18. And Parsons @#34.

Now... that would have been 4 rookies, not exactly an Ernie-style move. Yet, back then weren't we supposedly on the "rebuild through youth and the draft" plan? Lets see... Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Kenneth Faried and Chandler Parsons? Yeah... that'd be some "rebuilding through youth and the draft."

Of course, we'd likely have been better than we were the subsequent season -- so no Bradley Beal. We might have been stuck taking Andre Drummond, Draymond Green and Kyle O'Quinn. But... why dream of the past, when we can sit here and watch what kind of train wreck we get in two weeks?

If you say there was lots of support for Vesely on the Board back then -- is that what you are saying? -- I'll have to believe you, no matter how odd that seems (and would have at the time too); I wasn't here back then.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1625 » by gambitx777 » Wed Jun 10, 2015 7:25 am

The quote by flip goes to show how bad the front office was back then, I hope and feel that it is better now,

To be fair, I would not have taken Clay at 6 either, Leonard was by far my choice for the pick. I could have lived with it though, Its not like it would have been a huge shock, just a reach, but I would have never faulted the team for taking Clay over ves, Unlike ves Clay had more to support his claim at # 6 than Ves did. Numbers wise anyway. So yeah, it is what it is. I was on another board back then, and it was pretty hard to get people off the Ves train, They were calling him the euro Blake Griffin. I Never Liked the Idea of drafting him at 6, seeing that he did not have the production or numbers to justify the pick.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1626 » by closg00 » Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:53 pm

There was discussion on the board about taking Thompson, but he was dismissed because he got into trouble with weed right around the time of the draft. The Wiz FO was still cleaning-up after gun gate.

Bottom-line is that we were collectively waving a red flag on Vesley. Anybody But Vesely was our cry.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1627 » by queridiculo » Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:27 pm

payitforward wrote:If you say there was lots of support for Vesely on the Board back then -- is that what you are saying? -- I'll have to believe you, no matter how odd that seems (and would have at the time too); I wasn't here back then.


It didn't happen.

The consensus off the board back then can basically be reduced to "ANYONE BUT VESELY".

Some, including me, were hoping to move up for Kanter or Williams, and there was a contingent of people hoping Valanciunas would drop.

Assuming we'd stay at six, there was a lot of support for Leonard, Thompson was in the discussion and there were also posters that were hoping for a trade down that would net us Vucevic.

Other names that were floated Harris, the Morris boys, Faried, Biyombo, Walker etc.

The majority of posters here was absolutely mortified by the Vesely rumors leading up to the draft and considered him to be the absolute worst pick Washington could make.

I cannot believe this team is heading into the 12th season with this buffoon at the helm.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1628 » by hands11 » Thu Jun 11, 2015 4:42 am

LyricalRico wrote:
closg00 wrote:
MikeTheKid wrote:
Klay went 11th in 2011, Tristan Thompson was 4. EG could've possibly traded down to 10 and still got Klay.


AND, it would have been a perfectly defensible position to have taken Klay at 6, we took Beal at 3.


Defensible in hindsight, sure. But at the time? I dunno (speaking specifically about board reaction). Seems like most here wanted a forward at the time (Vesely, Kawhi, the Morris twins, etc.). My guess is most here would have initially objected to taking guard. Heck, IIRC many still wanted Nick Young re-signed longterm back then. Maybe I just missed it, but I really don't recall much Klay Thompson talk around here at the time.

Beal, on the other hand, had a TON of buzz around here. So I'm not sure you can compare those drafts. Still, interesting to know they were considering Thompson on at least some level. Definitely disappointing that 2011 didn't work out better for us.


IIRC, lots of talked about trading up for Kanter. Then he dropped that bomb about how he wanted to be a Wizards and the board fell over. We weren't used to players actually wanting to become Wizards. We were used to them trying to figure out how to not play here after we got them in a trade. That was funny how the board reacted.

Aside from that, the board was all over the place. Lots of talks about trading down but I don't think anyone wanted to pick in our range. That was a GM killer of a draft. Look where Jimmer went. Look at Derrick Williams and Bismack Biyombo.

Lots of people liked the Chris Singleton pick and Mack. Post draft grade by the "experts" was very favorable.

As for Klay, I remember scouting him a little but since I didn't think they would go for a SG so I didn't spend much time on it. My impression. He can shoot the jumper but he was a soft defender. On a team that was soft defensively at the time and that needed help at every front court position, he didn't seem like a good fit over other needs. SF/PF/C was were I thought they should pick and their was plenty there to pick from.

But lets be clear. Even had they drafted Kawhi Leonard, he wouldn't be the same Kawhi Leonard you see right now on SAS. He would be Kawhi Leonard brought into a dysfunctional franchise so he wouldn't be as developed having be though a lot more crazy and no title runs. He would still have Kawhi Leonard upside, but he would be behind where he is today and more emotionally damaged.

I think that could be true of several other players they might have picked that year. That can happen in a draft like that were their aren't enough true stars at the top. You end up getting the next level down in talent going to crappy teams where they endure hell. Then by the time the good teams start getting a crack at that talent, you see some gems shine up as they landed in better situations. What would Kanter's career look like if he landed in SA or T Harris ?

The WIZ were still a train wreck back then. Nikola Vucevic would have probably been about what we see today. I say they because he went to another train wreck and he still developed what he has developed so that's easier to cross grade. Either Morris brother you could likely project about the same way.

But look over that draft. Its interesting. The players people would want to the most.. Klay and Kawhi Leonard...they happen to play for good teams. And now suddenly Tristan is looking like a catch after just a month ago people saying he sucked. But after LeBron showed up and he is on a good team, now he looks a lot better. Kanter looked mehh, until he went to a good teams.

GS wasn't good in 2011 but Curry was injured all year. Then in 2012 he broke out. They made the playoffs and played 12 games. Their roster really started to came together in 2012 from 2011 and they made it out of the first round.

Klay has a very similar experience to that of Beal where in Beal first year, no Wall and a transitional roster. By year two, Wall like Curry returned healthy and Beal made the playoff like Klay did and the roster started to gel and they made it into the 2nd round after not being the playoffs for 5 years, just like the Wizards. And with a grinder coach in his 2nd year that got them playing defense.

GS went from 110.7 DRtg in 2010/11 to 105.5 in 2012/13. Wizards went from 110.2 in 2010/11 to 103.0 in 2012/13

Interesting stuff.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1629 » by hands11 » Thu Jun 11, 2015 4:56 am

fishercob wrote:Longest tenured General Managers in the NBA.

Code: Select all

   Name   Since      Win%      Titles   Finals   Vesely
   Riley   1995      .567       3          2      0
   Kupchak 2000      .585       4          2      0
   Buford  2002      .708       4          1      0
   Ainge   2003      .534       1          1      0   
   ERNIE   2003      .416       0          0      1
   Morey   2007      .600       0          0      0
   Presti  2007      .561       0          1      0


Ernie's Wizards have won three playoff series

Ted's patience with Ernie is . . . atypical.

PS: The Vesely column is mostly in jest, so when you leap to Ernie's defense, try to avoid others' draft busts.


Right. But I doubt that's what Ted is looking at. He is looking at what they had done since he was owner. Two 2nd round exits since they pushed the self destruct button 5 years ago and a healthy Walls hand from a legit chance at an ECF appearance and with KD in their sights. And had Wall not gotten injured Beals first year not playing until January, they had a legit shot at those being a first round exit. But even without the ECF and third appearance speculation, two 2nd round appearances, one sweep over a higher seed in 5 years from blown up... with Truth choosing them and KD rumors. That is a far cry from where this franchise had been for 20 years.

I'm sure he is weighing that more then whatever happened under Abe when he wasn't in charge of the ship.

EG still makes mistakes. Glen was his latest. I call that a EG relapse. But Ted/EG is way better then Abe/EG. Everyone should be able to see that much. The last two year while still having many regular season :banghead: moments, have has lots of playoff :D

Lets hope we have a good offseason and we get more next year.

Interesting no word on EGs contract. This was supposed to be his last year on the old one. Last year, they made no real noise about the fact Ted had an option year on the old contract. Wonder what the story will be this year.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1630 » by dckingsfan » Thu Jun 11, 2015 1:35 pm

hands11 wrote:
fishercob wrote:Longest tenured General Managers in the NBA.

Code: Select all

   Name   Since      Win%      Titles   Finals   Vesely
   Riley   1995      .567       3          2      0
   Kupchak 2000      .585       4          2      0
   Buford  2002      .708       4          1      0
   Ainge   2003      .534       1          1      0   
   ERNIE   2003      .416       0          0      1
   Morey   2007      .600       0          0      0
   Presti  2007      .561       0          1      0


Ernie's Wizards have won three playoff series

Ted's patience with Ernie is . . . atypical.

PS: The Vesely column is mostly in jest, so when you leap to Ernie's defense, try to avoid others' draft busts.


Right. But I doubt that's what Ted is looking at. He is looking at what they had done since he was owner. Two 2nd round exits since they pushed the self destruct button 5 years ago and a healthy Walls hand from a legit chance at an ECF appearance and with KD in their sights. And had Wall not gotten injured Beals first year not playing until January, they had a legit shot at those being a first round exit. But even without the ECF and third appearance speculation, two 2nd round appearances, one sweep over a higher seed in 5 years from blown up... with Truth choosing them and KD rumors. That is a far cry from where this franchise had been for 20 years.

I'm sure he is weighing that more then whatever happened under Abe when he wasn't in charge of the ship.

EG still makes mistakes. Glen was his latest. I call that a EG relapse. But Ted/EG is way better then Abe/EG. Everyone should be able to see that much. The last two year while still having many regular season :banghead: moments, have has lots of playoff :D

Lets hope we have a good offseason and we get more next year.

Interesting no word on EGs contract. This was supposed to be his last year on the old one. Last year, they made no real noise about the fact Ted had an option year on the old contract. Wonder what the story will be this year.


Yep, 3 year extension for Wittman...
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1631 » by fishercob » Thu Jun 11, 2015 2:28 pm

hands11 wrote:
fishercob wrote:Longest tenured General Managers in the NBA.

Code: Select all

   Name   Since      Win%      Titles   Finals   Vesely
   Riley   1995      .567       3          2      0
   Kupchak 2000      .585       4          2      0
   Buford  2002      .708       4          1      0
   Ainge   2003      .534       1          1      0   
   ERNIE   2003      .416       0          0      1
   Morey   2007      .600       0          0      0
   Presti  2007      .561       0          1      0


Ernie's Wizards have won three playoff series

Ted's patience with Ernie is . . . atypical.

PS: The Vesely column is mostly in jest, so when you leap to Ernie's defense, try to avoid others' draft busts.


Right. But I doubt that's what Ted is looking at. He is looking at what they had done since he was owner. Two 2nd round exits since they pushed the self destruct button 5 years ago and a healthy Walls hand from a legit chance at an ECF appearance and with KD in their sights. And had Wall not gotten injured Beals first year not playing until January, they had a legit shot at those being a first round exit. But even without the ECF and third appearance speculation, two 2nd round appearances, one sweep over a higher seed in 5 years from blown up... with Truth choosing them and KD rumors. That is a far cry from where this franchise had been for 20 years.

I'm sure he is weighing that more then whatever happened under Abe when he wasn't in charge of the ship.

EG still makes mistakes. Glen was his latest. I call that a EG relapse. But Ted/EG is way better then Abe/EG. Everyone should be able to see that much. The last two year while still having many regular season :banghead: moments, have has lots of playoff :D

Lets hope we have a good offseason and we get more next year.

Interesting no word on EGs contract. This was supposed to be his last year on the old one. Last year, they made no real noise about the fact Ted had an option year on the old contract. Wonder what the story will be this year.


You are missing my point, which was simply that Ernie is an outlier given the length of his tenure and his lack of success.

As to what Ted is looking at, it certainly strikes me as odd that when Ted took over as owner, he would not evaluate Ernie's body of work in order to decide whether he wanted to continue with him as GM. In fact, I am quite sure that Ted did evaluate Ernie's body of work, and despite the results, felt that the benefits of keeping Ernie (continuity and organizational knowledge perhaps?) outweighed bringing in someone new. Again, this strikes me as atypical. Being atypical doesn't make a decision wrong (other things can0, it just makes it atypical.

Ernie is that bad poker player. As long as he's here, I continue to hope that he's the bad poker player that gets lucky and wins -- and that all the good poker players hate. I also hope he gets better at poker. All I care about is the team. I'd much rather have a buffoon of a GM who stumbled into a great team than a genius who is really unlucky.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1632 » by Benjammin » Thu Jun 11, 2015 2:32 pm

I had no idea EFG had broken solidly above the 40% winning percentage mark. I believe we should celebrate with cake and t-shirts that read--GM Ernie Grunfeld---a proud .416 winning percentage!
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1633 » by dckingsfan » Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:04 pm

Wittman is a career .394 but .571 in the playoffs...
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1634 » by payitforward » Thu Jun 11, 2015 10:21 pm

hands11 wrote:..But lets be clear. Even had they drafted Kawhi Leonard, he wouldn't be the same Kawhi Leonard you see right now on SAS. He would be Kawhi Leonard brought into a dysfunctional franchise.

I read stuff like this all the time. "Guys play well because they play for good franchises. Doesn't mean they'd play well for us; we aren't as good as that team."

And, I also read the exact opposite kind of thing: "guys play well because they are on a terrible team, so they're getting the chance to play and show their stuff. Doesn't mean they'd play well for us; we aren't as bad as that team."

It can even come from the same person -- Hands in this case. You read what he writes about Leonard above, right? But about Nerlens Noel he's written repeatedly that his good play doesn't mean anything because he's doing it on a bad team. I.e. Noel's on a bad team so he is able to play well." And "Leonard's on a good team so he is able to play well."

I guess when you write the words, it feels like you're writing: "X wouldn't be as good as he is now if he'd broken his leg" -- where "broken leg" stands in for playing for one team instead of another.

But they aren't the same at all, obviously. Players play the way they play because of being the players they are. Period. If Leonard had been here, we'd have been the ones to discover how good he is. And if Noel had somehow wound up on the Spurs, they'd be the ones to benefit from his level of play.

Either you make bad picks or you make good picks. Vesely was a bad pick. Leonard was a good pick.

hands11 wrote:Lots of people liked the Singleton people.

Really? I wasn't on the board back then. I know you must have liked it, given you said not long after that he had what it took to be a starter.

If "lots of people liked the Singleton pick", that means lots of people were wrong -- and that's all it means. "Either you make bad picks or you make good picks." Singleton was a bad pick. Harris, Motiejunas, Faried, Mirotic, and Reggie Jackson (4 of the next 5 taken after Singleton) were good picks.

If you make better picks, you have better players. If you have better players then, all things being equal, you have a better team. I wish I understood why people think that's complicated....
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1635 » by payitforward » Thu Jun 11, 2015 10:35 pm

hands11 wrote:
fishercob wrote:Longest tenured General Managers in the NBA.

Code: Select all

   Name   Since      Win%      Titles   Finals   Vesely
   Riley   1995      .567       3          2      0
   Kupchak 2000      .585       4          2      0
   Buford  2002      .708       4          1      0
   Ainge   2003      .534       1          1      0   
   ERNIE   2003      .416       0          0      1
   Morey   2007      .600       0          0      0
   Presti  2007      .561       0          1      0


Ernie's Wizards have won three playoff series

Ted's patience with Ernie is . . . atypical.

PS: The Vesely column is mostly in jest, so when you leap to Ernie's defense, try to avoid others' draft busts.


Right. But I doubt that's what Ted is looking at. He is looking at what they had done since he was owner. Two 2nd round exits since they pushed the self destruct button 5 years ago and a healthy Walls hand from a legit chance at an ECF appearance and with KD in their sights. And had Wall not gotten injured Beals first year not playing until January, they had a legit shot at those being a first round exit. But even without the ECF and third appearance speculation, two 2nd round appearances, one sweep over a higher seed in 5 years from blown up... with Truth choosing them and KD rumors. That is a far cry from where this franchise had been for 20 years.

I'm sure he is weighing that more then whatever happened under Abe when he wasn't in charge of the ship.

EG still makes mistakes. Glen was his latest. I call that a EG relapse. But Ted/EG is way better then Abe/EG. Everyone should be able to see that much. The last two year while still having many regular season :banghead: moments, have has lots of playoff :D

Lets hope we have a good offseason and we get more next year.

Interesting no word on EGs contract. This was supposed to be his last year on the old one. Last year, they made no real noise about the fact Ted had an option year on the old contract. Wonder what the story will be this year.

100% agreement -- I'm sure Ted is very happy w/ Ernie. It's a lot more fun for me and you and everyone to be a Wizards fan than it was for a long long stretch. And because of that, business is good! Why would anyone expect Ted to fire Ernie? Or Randy for that matter?

But that has no bearing on the overall terrible job Ernie has done -- before Ted and under Ted. One lucky draft pick, one good draft pick, one likely good draft pick, and 10 other picks either whiffs or wasted. Costly trade for two guys out of whom we got not much. Blown assets to recover from foreseeable disasters, eating other teams' crap contracts to pay for our mistakes. And so forth. Oh, and we have had a year of Paul Pierce. And wow, we made it through the first round of the playoffs twice! Ain't that something!
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1636 » by hands11 » Fri Jun 12, 2015 3:16 pm

fishercob wrote:
hands11 wrote:
fishercob wrote:Longest tenured General Managers in the NBA.

Code: Select all

   Name   Since      Win%      Titles   Finals   Vesely
   Riley   1995      .567       3          2      0
   Kupchak 2000      .585       4          2      0
   Buford  2002      .708       4          1      0
   Ainge   2003      .534       1          1      0   
   ERNIE   2003      .416       0          0      1
   Morey   2007      .600       0          0      0
   Presti  2007      .561       0          1      0


Ernie's Wizards have won three playoff series

Ted's patience with Ernie is . . . atypical.

PS: The Vesely column is mostly in jest, so when you leap to Ernie's defense, try to avoid others' draft busts.


Right. But I doubt that's what Ted is looking at. He is looking at what they had done since he was owner. Two 2nd round exits since they pushed the self destruct button 5 years ago and a healthy Walls hand from a legit chance at an ECF appearance and with KD in their sights. And had Wall not gotten injured Beals first year not playing until January, they had a legit shot at those being a first round exit. But even without the ECF and third appearance speculation, two 2nd round appearances, one sweep over a higher seed in 5 years from blown up... with Truth choosing them and KD rumors. That is a far cry from where this franchise had been for 20 years.

I'm sure he is weighing that more then whatever happened under Abe when he wasn't in charge of the ship.

EG still makes mistakes. Glen was his latest. I call that a EG relapse. But Ted/EG is way better then Abe/EG. Everyone should be able to see that much. The last two year while still having many regular season :banghead: moments, have has lots of playoff :D

Lets hope we have a good offseason and we get more next year.

Interesting no word on EGs contract. This was supposed to be his last year on the old one. Last year, they made no real noise about the fact Ted had an option year on the old contract. Wonder what the story will be this year.


You are missing my point, which was simply that Ernie is an outlier given the length of his tenure and his lack of success.

As to what Ted is looking at, it certainly strikes me as odd that when Ted took over as owner, he would not evaluate Ernie's body of work in order to decide whether he wanted to continue with him as GM. In fact, I am quite sure that Ted did evaluate Ernie's body of work, and despite the results, felt that the benefits of keeping Ernie (continuity and organizational knowledge perhaps?) outweighed bringing in someone new. Again, this strikes me as atypical. Being atypical doesn't make a decision wrong (other things can0, it just makes it atypical.

Ernie is that bad poker player. As long as he's here, I continue to hope that he's the bad poker player that gets lucky and wins -- and that all the good poker players hate. I also hope he gets better at poker. All I care about is the team. I'd much rather have a buffoon of a GM who stumbled into a great team than a genius who is really unlucky.


Better lucky then good. I agree.

My view has been and it has played out to be correct... EG with Ted would be better then EG with Abe. Following the micro moves is what most pay attension to but the most important thing in building a team are the macro moves, and getting lucky. But you have to set yourself up for that lucky. That's what a front office can do that has the biggest effect.

The other point goes to something I read a long time ago regarding what teams end up being those elite teams. Not good teams that make ECF or maybe win one title, but elite teams. The over riding factor was ... having one of those top 3 players on your team like a LeBron. After that, you needed a few other things like a first team defensive player who had made the team in the last couple years. Something like that. But the over riding factor was...having the right high pick in the right year when one of those players was available.

The part about being a good GM we spend most our time talking about here is about how to create the 2nd to 4th best teams or how a team gets designed around one of those top elite players if you luck into getting one.

So one approach a GM can do that plays into this is what PHI is doing. Just suck until you get the right top pick in the right draft. Because once you get that, you get your 10 plus year window. Well the Wizards already kind of did that. They got Wall. Problem is, an elite PG is great to have but they usually aren't that elite elite player you need. Not even a CP3 has shown to be that player. PG hasn't show to be the best position for that, but rule changes has made that a little more viable today. That said, Wall has been great as a magnet because of his unique combination on past first PG and speed to finish. Now we have to see if that magnetic attraction is enough to draw in KD and others. Beal is a magnet as well. So if you don't land LeBron, 2nd best approach is attracting that player.

KD can be one of those kinds of players like a LeBron. To get one of them is really hard. LeBron decided to return to CLE. What did CLE really do ? Hell, they even wrote him a nasty letter when he left. They had little to do with their GM and a ton to do with being lucky. First in having the pick to get LeBron. Then landing all those other #1s. Then LeBron deciding to return. What GM couldnt sit in the chair cashing checks while that happened ? Being a good GM had little to do with it.

Look at SAS. Landed David Robinson and then Tim Duncan. That's what set them up more then anything. And even with that, not a back to back title type but good over a long period type. Duncan is a Cal Ripken. Not an MJ.

So if you put all the other stuff aside like acquiring fart, Ves, etc., WIZ are doing to two most important things. They got Wall, Beal and Otto in top picks and any one of or all three can become really good, but none really project to be LeBron or MJ elite. So you build out a good team around those players, clear some cap and hope the Wall, Beal, etc magnet attacks KD. Set yourself up to get LUCKY.

All the other micro moves are a battle for 2nd best until LeBron fades and someone else gets to his level.

So what makes the best front office ? Those that do the macro game the best that set themselves up to ... get lucky.

There are GMs that make efficient use of assets, draft well, etc. Then there is CLE. They drafted Bennett #1. So what. They lucked into LeBron twice. That erases all the other mistakes. Hell, Kyrie and Love that good #1 pick and their big offseason move, they aren't even playing and this still might go 6 or 7 games.

So when talking about who the good front offices are, this is what it really comes down to way more then efficient use of assets.

You can make a lot of bad moves if you make the biggest right moves, and get lucky. The right macro plan and luck override perfect micro managing.
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Re: Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1637 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Fri Jun 12, 2015 6:27 pm

FAH1223 wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:This is four paragraphs of Michael Lee reporting on widespread fail:

Michael Lee wrote: Since he was familiar with the strengths of both players, Saunders was immediately on board. "If we can get those two guys," Saunders recalled telling Grunfeld, "it's almost a no-brainer."

A day after trading the No. 5 pick in tonight's draft, Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila and Oleksiy Pecherov to the Minnesota for Miller and Foye, Grunfeld and Saunders were both optimistic about the direction of the franchise, which is looking to rebound from an injury-marred 19-63 season. "We feel good about this trade," Grunfeld said after pulling off arguably his third-biggest deal with the organization, behind the acquisitions of eventual all-stars Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. "I thought, we get two rotation players who are proven commodities and proven they can play at this level."

A rival league executive said yesterday that the trade pushes the Wizards into the group of elite teams in the Eastern Conference, along with Orlando, Cleveland and Boston.

"I think it's a very good deal for Washington. They're right up there with the elite teams as far as talent goes," the executive said on the condition of anonymity because he is not at liberty to discuss other teams. "They have a very good coach. It's a matter of how quickly they pull it together and obviously, how healthy is [Gilbert] Arenas? You don't know. That's a significant thing. But I think they helped themselves with the trade. I think they are as talented as anybody."


Wow.


I remember reading that and I remember a lot of us on the board tried to rationalize it to cope

:banghead:


I knew at that point EG had really goofed and that life is not fair. (I could do way better by myself and so could many others not on a team payroll).

Total ineptitude. There was no doubt in my mind that Curry was already way better than Foye. It was beyond STUPID to trade a lottery pick for two guys entering unrestricted free agency. Best case was they do well for one season then you have to bid high to retain them. I remember Robert Pack, Jim McIlvaine and Brent Price having relative success only to accept bigger deals elsewhere (regardless if the Wizards wisely didn't match). That traded 5th pick for Foye and Miller was yet another instance of Ernie Grunfeld making me feel apoplectic.

Fortunately, I don't take any move that seriously now. Portis could be there at 19 and EG can pass for Juwan Staten. I will be surprised but NOT shocked. :)
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Re: Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2) 

Post#1638 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Fri Jun 12, 2015 6:32 pm

gambitx777 wrote:The quote by flip goes to show how bad the front office was back then, I hope and feel that it is better now,

To be fair, I would not have taken Clay at 6 either, Leonard was by far my choice for the pick. I could have lived with it though, Its not like it would have been a huge shock, just a reach, but I would have never faulted the team for taking Clay over ves, Unlike ves Clay had more to support his claim at # 6 than Ves did. Numbers wise anyway. So yeah, it is what it is. I was on another board back then, and it was pretty hard to get people off the Ves train, They were calling him the euro Blake Griffin. I Never Liked the Idea of drafting him at 6, seeing that he did not have the production or numbers to justify the pick.


For about a year a lot on this board liked Flip. Why I disliked Flip was a very contentious topic until the consensus came around.

I didn't like his coaching or his dealings with media and players about two months into the regular season.

Randy Wittman is way better than Flip was.
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Ernie's Team 

Post#1639 » by thomas1897 » Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:02 pm

Ernie Grunfeld has done an excellent job with a minimal amount of errors(Jan Vessely), Andrea Blatche and the knuckle head of them all Javale MaGee. From these players came some good play but no future in Washington, he has received good returns considering the fall out. Ernie needs is more depth and one more good young big man to work with Nene and Gortat. Someone who can relieve either one and play at a high level without loosing the rebuilding and scoring these guys provide. Gooden does well considering and Seraphin is good on occasion. The possibility of Paul Pierce going to LA Clippers will give the Wizards of using Kris Humphries more and moving Otto Porter into the starting lineup. The backcourt could use another quality starting guard what the options using Martell Webster in the backcourt or making a trade. Ernie how are you going to do this.
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Re: Ernie's Team 

Post#1640 » by stevemcqueen1 » Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:05 pm

Do you have any thoughts on what makes a Wizard?

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