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Wizards re-sign Gooden

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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#121 » by dckingsfan » Thu Jul 16, 2015 2:49 pm

So, I may be missing something here but... if Humphries does develop a 3 point shot and if Gooden/Humphries split the PF position and Nene moves to backup C - aren't we going to have a large percentage of time with an S4 on the court?
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#122 » by Kanyewest » Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:14 pm

If Humphries can become a 3 point shooter, why can't Nene? Nene is probably just as good as Humphries from mid range jumper. Nene has even hit 2 3 point shots in the past 2 seasons. Humphries has not made a 3 pointer since his rookie season.

I would say the probability of Nene or Humphries turning into Drew Gooden from 3 is relatively low but it should be something that the Wizards should consider going into the offseason. Or at least, hire a free throw shooting coach for Nene.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#123 » by nate33 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:18 pm

Kanyewest wrote:If Humphries can become a 3 point shooter, why can't Nene? Nene is probably just as good as Humphries from mid range jumper. Nene has even hit 2 3 point shots in the past 2 seasons. Humphries has not made a 3 pointer since his rookie season.

I would say the probability of Nene or Humphries turning into Drew Gooden from 3 is relatively low but it should be something that the Wizards should consider going into the offseason. Or at least, hire a free throw shooting coach for Nene.

I think Humphries has more of a catch-and-shoot game than Nene. Nene really only shoots jumpers if, after holding the ball for a while, the defender backs off because he is expecting Nene to drive or make a pass.

Also, Humphries has shown range out to 21 feet whereas Nene usually only shoots from 15-18 feet.

But, yeah, if Nene can hit some 3's that would help too.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#124 » by dckingsfan » Thu Jul 16, 2015 4:52 pm

nate33 wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:If Humphries can become a 3 point shooter, why can't Nene? Nene is probably just as good as Humphries from mid range jumper. Nene has even hit 2 3 point shots in the past 2 seasons. Humphries has not made a 3 pointer since his rookie season.

I would say the probability of Nene or Humphries turning into Drew Gooden from 3 is relatively low but it should be something that the Wizards should consider going into the offseason. Or at least, hire a free throw shooting coach for Nene.

I think Humphries has more of a catch-and-shoot game than Nene. Nene really only shoots jumpers if, after holding the ball for a while, the defender backs off because he is expecting Nene to drive or make a pass.

Also, Humphries has shown range out to 21 feet whereas Nene usually only shoots from 15-18 feet.

But, yeah, if Nene can hit some 3's that would help too.


Nene 16 <3 = .220
Humphries 16 <3 = .386

So, I would think there would be a VERY good chance for Humphries to move to a Drew Gooden and not for Nene.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#125 » by Kanyewest » Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:06 pm

dckingsfan wrote:Nene 16 <3 = .220
Humphries 16 <3 = .386

So, I would think there would be a VERY good chance for Humphries to move to a Drew Gooden and not for Nene.


True, Humphries has been a better mid-range jump shooter than Nene (the numbers are probably closer than those percentages though given the TSW comments).

Still, Humphries hasn't made a 3 pointer since the 2004-05 season. At least Nene has made 2 3 pointers (Humphries career totals) in the past two season. Gooden in the meantime had made 50 career 3 pointers before arriving to Washington.

And it could be possible that Nene is a better long range shooter than Humphries but not as good from mid-range. It would be similar to Bradley Beal and John Wall. I hope that Humphries or Nene improves from 3 point range but I don't think he'll be a 40% 3 point shooter immediately but it would be better than mid-range 2s.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#126 » by TheSecretWeapon » Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:08 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:If Humphries can become a 3 point shooter, why can't Nene? Nene is probably just as good as Humphries from mid range jumper. Nene has even hit 2 3 point shots in the past 2 seasons. Humphries has not made a 3 pointer since his rookie season.

I would say the probability of Nene or Humphries turning into Drew Gooden from 3 is relatively low but it should be something that the Wizards should consider going into the offseason. Or at least, hire a free throw shooting coach for Nene.

I think Humphries has more of a catch-and-shoot game than Nene. Nene really only shoots jumpers if, after holding the ball for a while, the defender backs off because he is expecting Nene to drive or make a pass.

Also, Humphries has shown range out to 21 feet whereas Nene usually only shoots from 15-18 feet.

But, yeah, if Nene can hit some 3's that would help too.


Nene 16 <3 = .220
Humphries 16 <3 = .386

So, I would think there would be a VERY good chance for Humphries to move to a Drew Gooden and not for Nene.

You looked at the wrong column for both guys. Those numbers are the percentage of the player's FGA that came from that distance. So, 22.0% of Nenê's FGA last season were from 16 feet to 3pt range; for Humphries it was 38.6%.

Accuracy is next section over. Last season, Nenê shot .402 from on 2pt attempts 16+ feet; Humphries shot .430.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#127 » by TheSecretWeapon » Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:10 pm

I did a foot-by-foot analysis of Nenê's shooting accuracy by distance last season. There's zero reason to think he couldn't become a competent 3pt shooter with a little practice. Same for Humphries. Both showed good accuracy on longer twos. And it's not like they're not strong enough to shoot from a little further away.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#128 » by dckingsfan » Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:25 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:I think Humphries has more of a catch-and-shoot game than Nene. Nene really only shoots jumpers if, after holding the ball for a while, the defender backs off because he is expecting Nene to drive or make a pass.

Also, Humphries has shown range out to 21 feet whereas Nene usually only shoots from 15-18 feet.

But, yeah, if Nene can hit some 3's that would help too.


Nene 16 <3 = .220
Humphries 16 <3 = .386

So, I would think there would be a VERY good chance for Humphries to move to a Drew Gooden and not for Nene.

You looked at the wrong column for both guys. Those numbers are the percentage of the player's FGA that came from that distance. So, 22.0% of Nenê's FGA last season were from 16 feet to 3pt range; for Humphries it was 38.6%.

Accuracy is next section over. Last season, Nenê shot .402 from on 2pt attempts 16+ feet; Humphries shot .430.


ooops, thank you... does that still make the point? Could Humphries move out a couple of feet and still be at .350?
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#129 » by dckingsfan » Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:27 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:I did a foot-by-foot analysis of Nenê's shooting accuracy by distance last season. There's zero reason to think he couldn't become a competent 3pt shooter with a little practice. Same for Humphries. Both showed good accuracy on longer twos. And it's not like they're not strong enough to shoot from a little further away.

Got it - so probabilistically, what would be the range on their 3 point shooting?

Humphries .340 to .360? I guess this is hard to gauge...
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#130 » by nate33 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:28 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:I did a foot-by-foot analysis of Nenê's shooting accuracy by distance last season. There's zero reason to think he couldn't become a competent 3pt shooter with a little practice. Same for Humphries. Both showed good accuracy on longer twos. And it's not like they're not strong enough to shoot from a little further away.

Over the past two seasons combined:

Nene has made 30 out of 60 jumpers from 19-22 feet in about 3200 minutes
Humphries has made 60 out of 119 jumpers from 19-22 feet in about 2700 minutes.

So they're both 50% shooters from 19-22 feet, but Humphries has been able to get up more than twice as many attempts on a per minute basis. I don't know if that's because he's got a quicker release, or if it's merely that Humphries can't do much else on offense so that's a shot he takes without hesitation, whereas Nene always has more options.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#131 » by TheSecretWeapon » Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:38 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
Nene 16 <3 = .220
Humphries 16 <3 = .386

So, I would think there would be a VERY good chance for Humphries to move to a Drew Gooden and not for Nene.

You looked at the wrong column for both guys. Those numbers are the percentage of the player's FGA that came from that distance. So, 22.0% of Nenê's FGA last season were from 16 feet to 3pt range; for Humphries it was 38.6%.

Accuracy is next section over. Last season, Nenê shot .402 from on 2pt attempts 16+ feet; Humphries shot .430.


ooops, thank you... does that still make the point? Could Humphries move out a couple of feet and still be at .350?

:)

It does still make the point. Both guys are solid shooters on longer twos, see nate's post on their accuracy on twos from 19+ feet. Shooting 32-35% from 3pt range seems like a realistic target. It'd be interesting to do an analysis to see what the relationship is league-wide between accuracy on long twos and accuracy on threes. It makes sense for there to be a relationship, but then I think of a guy like Beal, who's a terrific 3pt shooter AND a not-good shooter on long twos.

Last season, the league shot .394 on twos from 16+ feet and .350 on threes. Apply that to Nenê and Humphries as a rough rule of thumb, and it would suggest approximately 35% for Nenê and 38% for Humphries.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#132 » by nate33 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:42 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:You looked at the wrong column for both guys. Those numbers are the percentage of the player's FGA that came from that distance. So, 22.0% of Nenê's FGA last season were from 16 feet to 3pt range; for Humphries it was 38.6%.

Accuracy is next section over. Last season, Nenê shot .402 from on 2pt attempts 16+ feet; Humphries shot .430.


ooops, thank you... does that still make the point? Could Humphries move out a couple of feet and still be at .350?

:)

It does still make the point. Both guys are solid shooters on longer twos, see nate's post on their accuracy on twos from 19+ feet. Shooting 32-35% from 3pt range seems like a realistic target. It'd be interesting to do an analysis to see what the relationship is league-wide between accuracy on long twos and accuracy on threes. It makes sense for there to be a relationship, but then I think of a guy like Beal, who's a terrific 3pt shooter AND a not-good shooter on long twos.

I would like to see that comparison done on a positional basis. I assume that ball-handlers like Beal take a lot more off-balance contested long 2's, whereas bigs usually just take the open catch-and-shoot long 2's. I'm sure synergy has the numbers.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#133 » by dckingsfan » Thu Jul 16, 2015 7:18 pm

nate33 wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
ooops, thank you... does that still make the point? Could Humphries move out a couple of feet and still be at .350?

:)

It does still make the point. Both guys are solid shooters on longer twos, see nate's post on their accuracy on twos from 19+ feet. Shooting 32-35% from 3pt range seems like a realistic target. It'd be interesting to do an analysis to see what the relationship is league-wide between accuracy on long twos and accuracy on threes. It makes sense for there to be a relationship, but then I think of a guy like Beal, who's a terrific 3pt shooter AND a not-good shooter on long twos.

I would like to see that comparison done on a positional basis. I assume that ball-handlers like Beal take a lot more off-balance contested long 2's, whereas bigs usually just take the open catch-and-shoot long 2's. I'm sure synergy has the numbers.

Love to see that too - and keep in mind that Porter shot .377 from 16+ feet - so, the notion of moving Porter to the S4 when we could work on Humphries... I am probably missing something.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#134 » by tontoz » Thu Jul 16, 2015 7:46 pm

After what happened in the playoffs, both with us and around the league, i have to think Hump will come to camp shooting 3s.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#135 » by DCZards » Thu Jul 16, 2015 8:07 pm

tontoz wrote:After what happened in the playoffs, both with us and around the league, i have to think Hump will come to camp shooting 3s.


I too expect Hump to come to camp shooting 3s. The question is will he be making a decent percentage of them. I have my doubts...but I'm hopeful nevertheless.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#136 » by dckingsfan » Thu Jul 16, 2015 8:15 pm

I do think that is the quickest way for the Wizards to improve year over year. Funny that it depends on Nene willing to play backup C and Humphries shoot 3s.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#137 » by tontoz » Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:16 pm

DCZards wrote:
tontoz wrote:After what happened in the playoffs, both with us and around the league, i have to think Hump will come to camp shooting 3s.


I too expect Hump to come to camp shooting 3s. The question is will he be making a decent percentage of them. I have my doubts...but I'm hopeful nevertheless.



I doubt you would have predicted that Booker would be a competent 3 point shooter in Utah. I would have doubted that myself. Over his last two seasons with us he shot 22-59 from 18-22 feet which is 37.2%. Not a great candidate to become a 3 point shooter yet he shot 34.5% from 3 in Utah.

http://bkref.com/tiny/Qa3Vz

Hump has shot 93-201 (46%) over the last two seasons from 18-22 feet. Not only has Hump shot the long 2 far better than Booker did but he also shot them far more often. I doubt there are many players in the entire league who don't shoot 3s and shoot long 2s as well as Hump.

http://bkref.com/tiny/BQAib
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#138 » by dckingsfan » Fri Jul 17, 2015 1:14 am

tontoz wrote:
DCZards wrote:
tontoz wrote:After what happened in the playoffs, both with us and around the league, i have to think Hump will come to camp shooting 3s.


I too expect Hump to come to camp shooting 3s. The question is will he be making a decent percentage of them. I have my doubts...but I'm hopeful nevertheless.



I doubt you would have predicted that Booker would be a competent 3 point shooter in Utah. I would have doubted that myself. Over his last two seasons with us he shot 22-59 from 18-22 feet which is 37.2%. Not a great candidate to become a 3 point shooter yet he shot 34.5% from 3 in Utah.

http://bkref.com/tiny/Qa3Vz

Hump has shot 93-201 (46%) over the last two seasons from 18-22 feet. Not only has Hump shot the long 2 far better than Booker did but he also shot them far more often. I doubt there are many players in the entire league who don't shoot 3s and shoot long 2s as well as Hump.

http://bkref.com/tiny/BQAib


Thanks tontoz, Wittman would like to have a quick conversation with you :)
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#139 » by TheSecretWeapon » Fri Jul 17, 2015 2:04 am

Quick and dirty look at long twos and long threes. Way more work to be done, but...

Last season, 212 players had at least 25 2pt attempts from 18+ feet AND 25 3pt attempts. This group of 212 collectively shot .396 on long twos and .356 on threes. BUT, the correlation between accuracy on long twos and threes was lower than I'd anticipated: 0.23. So, a positive relationship between accuracy on long twos and threes, but long 2pt shooting accuracy only explains about 5% of 3pt accuracy.

Way more work to be done, of course. Want to look at it by position. Want to merge the shooting range data with the other data I have to see if there are other stat categories that can help predict 3pt percentage. My guess is that FT shooting will have a positive relationship with 3pt shooting.
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Re: Wizards re-sign Gooden 

Post#140 » by TheSecretWeapon » Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:30 pm

Ran a quick regression using a variety of stat categories on 3pt shooting for bigs (centers, power forwards, and higher-rebounding SFs). Needs more time and attention than I can give it at the moment to refine it, but...

The regression suggests Humphries might shoot .365 from 3pt range. It suggests Nenê at .304. Based on last season's numbers. Among PF types who attempted fewer than 2.0 threes per 100 team possessions last season, Humphries ranks 3rd in "potential 3pt%" using this regression behind Pau Gasol and Blake Griffin. For what it's worth...
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