Kris Humphries as a Stretch Four

Post #1 » by **nate33** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:27 pm

I wanted to consolidate some of the discussion on Kris Humphries.

The idea of him becoming a stretch four started here:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA/status/596776121594683392[/tweet]

Post #2 » by **nate33** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:28 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:I did a foot-by-foot analysis of Nenê's shooting accuracy by distance last season. There's zero reason to think he couldn't become a competent 3pt shooter with a little practice. Same for Humphries. Both showed good accuracy on longer twos. And it's not like they're not strong enough to shoot from a little further away.

Over the past two seasons combined:

Nene has made 30 out of 60 jumpers from 19-22 feet in about 3200 minutes
Humphries has made 60 out of 119 jumpers from 19-22 feet in about 2700 minutes.

So they're both 50% shooters from 19-22 feet, but Humphries has been able to get up more than twice as many attempts on a per minute basis. I don't know if that's because he's got a quicker release, or if it's merely that Humphries can't do much else on offense so that's a shot he takes without hesitation, whereas Nene always has more options.

Post #3 » by **nate33** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:29 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:Ran a quick regression using a variety of stat categories on 3pt shooting for bigs (centers, power forwards, and higher-rebounding SFs). Needs more time and attention than I can give it at the moment to refine it, but...

The regression suggests Humphries might shoot .365 from 3pt range. It suggests Nenê at .304. Based on last season's numbers. Among PF types who attempted fewer than 2.0 threes per 100 team possessions last season, Humphries ranks 3rd in "potential 3pt%" using this regression behind Pau Gasol and Blake Griffin. For what it's worth...

Post #4 » by **nate33** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:32 pm

Some examples of big men with a decent midrange game who developed the 3-ball later in their career:

Troy Murphy

Chris Bosh

Brad Miller

Drew Gooden

doclinkin · Post #5 » by **doclinkin** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 3:05 pm

It's a common move to extend your career

Big Smoove SleepySam Perkins

Donyell Marshall

DCZards · Post #6 » by **DCZards** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 4:42 pm

nate33 wrote:Some examples of big men with a decent midrange game who developed the 3-ball later in their career:

Troy Murphy

Chris Bosh

Brad Miller

Drew Gooden

I don't really see these comparisons.

Murphy had attempted more than 1,000 3s and made over 400 of them by his 11th season in the league. Bosh had attempted more than 400 3s by his 11th season. Miller had shot more than 200 3s by his 10th season.

Donyell Marshall averaged almost three 3 pt attempts per game from the outset of his career.

By contrast, Hump has attempted a total of 26 3s during his 11-year NBA career and made 2 of them. Both the makes were in his rookie season. Bosh, Murphy, Miller and Marshall were clearly much more comfortable shooting the 3 throughout their careers than Hump so getting better at it was not as much of a leap for them as it will be for Hump.

I'm not saying that Hump can't or won't become a decent 3 pt shooter...but I'll believe it when I see it.

Dat2U · Post #7 » by **Dat2U** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:23 pm

It's his only way of becoming a passable rotation guy IMO. But as DCZards said, I'll believe it when I see it.

dckingsfan · Post #8 » by **dckingsfan** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:41 pm

Some things have to be believed to be seen

Post #9 » by **Ruzious** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:35 pm

All this skepticism... It's because he's white, isn't it?

Severn Hoos · Post #10 » by **Severn Hoos** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:38 pm

Ruz, I think you have it exactly backwards. Everyone tries to shoehorn him into the Stretch Four role BECAUSE he's white - after all, shooting is the only thing white guys are good at when it comes to basketball, right?

fishercob · Post #11 » by **fishercob** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:00 pm

Trevor Booker shot 10 threes his first 4 years in the league. Last year he shot 34.5% on 84 attempts.

dckingsfan · Post #12 » by **dckingsfan** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:08 pm

Ruzious wrote:All this skepticism... It's because he's white, isn't it?

Green font is your friend

fishercob · Post #13 » by **fishercob** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:18 pm

Severn Hoos wrote:Ruz, I think you have it exactly backwards. Everyone tries to shoehorn him into the Stretch Four role BECAUSE he's white - after all, shooting is the only thing white guys are good at when it comes to basketball, right?

Also scrapiness.

Post #14 » by **Ruzious** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:27 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
Ruzious wrote:All this skepticism... It's because he's white, isn't it?

Green font is your friend

Yup, it's like the commercial says - Use green font... when smilie faces just aren't enough.

dckingsfan · Post #15 » by **dckingsfan** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:30 pm

Ruzious wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
Ruzious wrote:All this skepticism... It's because he's white, isn't it?

Green font is your friend

Yup, it's like the commercial says - Use green font... when smilie faces just aren't enough.

Ouch - made my sides hurt

Severn Hoos · Post #16 » by **Severn Hoos** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:39 pm

fishercob wrote:
Severn Hoos wrote:Ruz, I think you have it exactly backwards. Everyone tries to shoehorn him into the Stretch Four role BECAUSE he's white - after all, shooting is the only thing white guys are good at when it comes to basketball, right?

Also crapiness.

Fixed. You're welcome.

Post #17 » by **nate33** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:41 pm

You guys are killing my thread.

dobrojim · Post #18 » by **dobrojim** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:58 pm

nate33 wrote:You guys are unraveling my thread.

fixed

Severn Hoos · Post #19 » by **Severn Hoos** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:01 pm

- sorry nate, you deserve better!

I will say, I am encouraged by the stats from the top of this thread. If you had asked me to guess Humphries' FG% from 19+ feet, I would have said 40% or less. That he is a 50% shooter from that range is indeed a tantalizing possibility. One mitigating factor is that it amounts to about one FGA per 25 minutes, so he would have to greatly increase the volume (and that's double Nene's rate, as you pointed out) for it to be worthwhile.

But, if he can do it, maybe get up to 2 3PA per game in 20-25 minutes, and get into the upper 30's for 3P%, he could be a passable S4 as a bench/rotation player. I don't ever see him as starter material (well, maybe this year, but that's by default as the position will be handled by committee). But I could see him as a bench Big who helps open the floor when he comes in.

fishercob · Post #20 » by **fishercob** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:09 pm

nate33 wrote:You guys are killing my thread.

Tis the season. The dog days of summer are rough on us true blue hoop heads.

But yeah, look at Trevor Booker. In his first 4 NBA seasons, he shot 36% on long 2's, never breaking 40% in a season, and in that time he attempted 10 threes total. This year he shot 34.5%.

I'm honestly more worried about Hump taking enough 3's than I am about him making enough of them.