Horford won't sign a Contract Extension before next summer

[Jamaaliver]

Not the same imo. When we re-signed Joe we were always a team with a second round ceiling. This team with Al has a chance to be a legitimate contender, that's the difference. We have no choice but to re-sign Al.

A very fair point. And I REALLY hope you're right.

I have my doubts regarding our status as contenders. But Bud is definitely one of the top regular season coaches in the league and might be able to squeeze another spectacular showing from our less heralded players.

I think I could more easily embrace overpaying AL...if we hadn't committed so much money to Paul. Or if there was a ton of cheap, young talent in our pipeline.

Question:

If we could trade Horford and get a major young stud like Giannis or Jabari Parker, would you guys be able to pull the trigger on a trade of THAT nature?

We'd still have Millsap and Tiago as starters. We keep Teague and Dennis. But give up our franchise stalwart for a young swingman at a position of need who could be a cornerstone moving forward....

[PandaKidd]

Additionally, Joe's contract meant the Hawks would remain inches from the luxury tax for an ownership whom everyone knew would never spend to remain competitive despite handing out his deal. It was the pinnacle of the WLOC era of locking into mediocrity. Al's potential deal while hefty doesn't lock the team into a core as there is cap flexibility all around it and then it remains to be seen how willing Ressler is to spend for a contender but at least we know that both he and his group have the capability to spend if need be by each being independent billionaires.

What was the percentage of JJ contract relative to the CBA Cap at that time? vs AL max contract and new Cap? Curious.

I dont think that JJ was the problem TBH although that contract was dumb. It was the TERRIBLE drafting coupled with Josh Smith/Marvin Williams etc.

We also had a ton of talent come through here that we never kept.

[PandaKidd]

Not the same imo. When we re-signed Joe we were always a team with a second round ceiling. This team with Al has a chance to be a legitimate contender, that's the difference. We have no choice but to re-sign Al.

A very fair point. And I REALLY hope you're right.

I have my doubts regarding our status as contenders. But Bud is definitely one of the top regular season coaches in the league and might be able to squeeze another spectacular showing from our less heralded players.

I think I could more easily embrace overpaying AL...if we hadn't committed so much money to Paul. Or if there was a ton of cheap, young talent in our pipeline.

Question:

If we could trade Horford and get a major young stud like Giannis or Jabari Parker, would you guys be able to pull the trigger on a trade of THAT nature?

We'd still have Millsap and Tiago as starters. We keep Teague and Dennis. But give up our franchise stalwart for a young swingman at a position of need who could be a cornerstone moving forward....

jabari BEFORE the injury , YES. Id have to see more from him coming of an ACL. that trade could implode your franchise if it didnt work out.

Jabari Parker was a "GOOD" player for 30 games, AH has been a GOOD player for years.

Giannis isnt worth AH, would have to be a much bigger offer than that.

I wouldnt trade AH at all. Hes a talent/locker room guy worth keeping forever. I WOULD however, trade teague IF they believe DS is ready to take over. Nothing tells me that is a possibility right now.

[Jamaaliver]

jabari BEFORE the injury , YES. Id have to see more from him coming of an ACL. that trade could implode your franchise if it didnt work out.

Jabari Parker was a "GOOD" player for 30 games, AH has been a GOOD player for years.

Giannis isnt worth AH, would have to be a much bigger offer than that.

I wouldnt trade AH at all. Hes a talent/locker room guy worth keeping forever. I WOULD however, trade teague IF they believe DS is ready to take over. Nothing tells me that is a possibility right now.

100% agree with all of this.

But AH walking away for nothing, however unlikely, would be disastrous.

And it would be the third All Star caliber player we let leave without getting compensation in return for. (Even 6-time All Star Joe Johnson ultimately only netted us Tim Hardaway, Jr and a few 2nd rounders).

But I agree that Horford is the kind of guy you want in your locker room til the end. Just the thought of $45 million combined for Millsap and AH is astoundingly stupid.

[PandaKidd]

Dont think it would be disastrous. I dont think on one hand you can say signing him to a huge contract is an albatross, but him walking away from said contract and leaving you with 22-100 million in cash is "nothing".

No one trades their All Star in the middle of a season for equal value. It just doesnt happen, so its either you sign him and you know what you got, or you dont sign him and you retool , go after someone else with the cash youll have.

[PandaKidd]

And it would be the third All Star caliber player we let leave without getting compensation in return for. (Even 6-time All Star Joe Johnson ultimately only netted us Tim Hardaway, Jr and a few 2nd rounders).

well, we signed other people with his cash that we otherwise would not have been able to sign.

If we have JJ on the payroll DO we sign DMC and PM at the same time? Could we afford Splitter? JJ would still be on the books correct?

[Jamaaliver]

I dont think on one hand you can say signing him to a huge contract is an albatross, but him walking away from said contract and leaving you with 22-100 million in cash is "nothing".

Yeah, that does sound a bit contradictory.

Ummm...

1. If he walks away for nothing, it only opens like $16 million+ in cap space if I recall. Basically the amount of his cap hold. Not enough to woo an All Star Caliber Big to replace him.

2. Overpaying and letting him walk away are not the only two options. Packaging him with other assets in trade could likely bring us good value. Though this is not an avenue I want to pursue, the option should at least be considered.

3. I've seen what this team reverts to when AL goes down for an extended period. I'm not sure Tiago is durable enough to be the only dependable Center option on this team should AL Leave for nothing. Without AH...I fear everything falls to poop.

If we have JJ on the payroll DO we sign DMC and PM at the same time? Could we afford Splitter? JJ would still be on the books correct?

For me, again, Opportunities Lost are the greatest issue. Trading JJ was absolutely a necessary move. But we considered dumping him for nothing a blessing because we wanted to shop in Free Agency. But What about packaging JJ and a resurgent Josh Smith plus future picks in trade for another top player being shopped? There were other avenues to acquire top players.

I just don't want to let all three top players from our 2011 team leave for nothing in return. That would be terrible asset management.

NOTE: A) Millsap does NOT come if JJ is here soaking up salary cap dollars.

B) But Demarre could easily have been signed using one of the exceptions. And a wing rotation of Teague-JJ-Demarre-Korver could have been tops in the league. But...that's a topic for another thread.

My point overall is: Horford will have suitors next summer. Should he walk away, we get right back on the treadmill.

Just ask Portland how rough it feels to go from top 10 to lottery team in a single offseason. It might be even worse for us in the East: We'd lose most of our games but still make the playoffs...thus missing out on lottery talent. (Just like 2014.)

[PandaKidd]

Well ive been through enough offseasons to see that the big trade almost NEVER happens. Teams dont DEAL stars in their last year, it just DOESNT happen. Dwight Howards dont happen. The Hawks wont move AH because they COULD lose him. On the contrary , they will feel like they have a leg up by being able to offer more money. Im like 90% sure he doesnt turn down our offer unless we dont want him here.

The only way he leaves is if we Josh Smith him and dont even offer him a contract. That is my point.

Thats not going to happen.

I would be SHOCKED if we offered him 100 million and he turns it down to go make 80 million somewhere else. SHOCKED.

[MaceCase]

Additionally, Joe's contract meant the Hawks would remain inches from the luxury tax for an ownership whom everyone knew would never spend to remain competitive despite handing out his deal. It was the pinnacle of the WLOC era of locking into mediocrity. Al's potential deal while hefty doesn't lock the team into a core as there is cap flexibility all around it and then it remains to be seen how willing Ressler is to spend for a contender but at least we know that both he and his group have the capability to spend if need be by each being independent billionaires.

What was the percentage of JJ contract relative to the CBA Cap at that time? vs AL max contract and new Cap? Curious.

I dont think that JJ was the problem TBH although that contract was dumb. It was the TERRIBLE drafting coupled with Josh Smith/Marvin Williams etc.

We also had a ton of talent come through here that we never kept.

The same percentage as they both fall into the 7-10 years experience max tier. The only change in that regard from the previous CBA and the new is that they allowed guys coming off their rookie deals to be able to qualify for the 30% max too instead of just 25% if they hit certain criteria.

Again, the problem with Joe was that the team would be decidedly fixed over the cap with his deal and thus unable to afford to sign impact players and because they were so close to the tax for a cheap ownership they couldn't even entertain retaining guys like Crawford or Hinrich thus had to fill out the roster with the corpses of TMac, Stackhouse, Joe Smith etc. Erick fricking Dampier symbolized the first time the A$G spent into the lux tax and it was only a few hundred K over.

All of that would be fine if you had a guy who could actually elevate his game or his team or that the team itself was already elite and looking at continuity but it simply wasn't the case.

[MaceCase]

B) But Demarre could easily have been signed using one of the exceptions. And a wing rotation of Teague-JJ-Demarre-Korver could have been tops in the league. But...that's a topic for another thread.

That's a topic for zero threads as Korver was part of the "nothing" that the team got for Joe.

[Jamaaliver]

B) But Demarre could easily have been signed using one of the exceptions. And a wing rotation of Teague-JJ-Demarre-Korver could have been tops in the league. But...that's a topic for another thread.

That's a topic for zero threads as Korver was part of the "nothing" that the team got for Joe.

It's slightly more complicated than that but I it buys peace...fine.

You are right.


But back to the larger/primary point:

Losing AL for nothing would be bad. Very, very bad. And Oklahoma City will be looming with Billy Donovan as Head Coach.

[MaceCase]

B) But Demarre could easily have been signed using one of the exceptions. And a wing rotation of Teague-JJ-Demarre-Korver could have been tops in the league. But...that's a topic for another thread.

That's a topic for zero threads as Korver was part of the "nothing" that the team got for Joe.

It's slightly more complicated than that but I it buys peace...fine.

You are right.


But back to the larger/primary point:

Losing AL for nothing would be bad. Very, very bad. And Oklahoma City will be looming with Billy Donovan as Head Coach.

Actually, no. It really isn't more complicated than that, in fact it is far less complicated than the mental gymnastics you performed to say that the trade only netted the Hawks Hardaway and a few 2nd rounders. No Joe trade no TPE, not TPE no Kyle. It was stacked as a non-simultaneous trade to get that through, saying otherwise is just a poor attempt to reduce the assets obtained from the Joe trade. That and OKC can't really loom if they just gave Kanter a $70 million contract, in addition to Steven Adams and oh yea Serge Ibaka. Unless Durant leaves where are they getting the money and why does a crowded frontcourt and no Durant entice Horford so badly?

[PandaKidd]

Well, lets look at past FA that were in their last contract year.

Portland lost LMA
Miami lost LBJ
NYK kept Melo
Hawks kept PM
Hawks kept Teague
Lakers lost D12
Cavs kept Love

Point being, NO team deals their star despite them being in the last year and the threat of them walking away for "nothing". its worth the risk to keep them and resign, because most teams wont trade ANYWAY because why run the risk of AH walking away from YOU (the team hes traded too) , you can just sign him in the offseason.

Teams wouldnt be willing to trade anything of real value for AH because why do that when you can just sign him outright in the offseason.

[Jamaaliver]

Well, lets look at past FA that were in their last contract year.

Portland lost LMA
Miami lost LBJ
NYK kept Melo
Hawks kept PM
Hawks kept Teague
Lakers lost D12
Cavs kept Love

Point being, NO team deals their star despite them being in the last year and the threat of them walking away for "nothing". its worth the risk to keep them and resign, because most teams wont trade ANYWAY because why run the risk of AH walking away from YOU (the team hes traded too) , you can just sign him in the offseason.

Teams wouldnt be willing to trade anything of real value for AH because why do that when you can just sign him outright in the offseason.

That list is a bit...lacking. (It doesn't include OKC panicking and trading Harden. Or LAL wisely shipping off All Star C Andrew Bynum a year before FA and getting D12 in the first place. Boston trading the rotting corpse of Rajon Rondo for draft picks.)


But it does highlight my greater point:

Portland lost LaMarcus for nothing.
Lakers lost Dwight & Pau for nothing.
Toronto lost Bosh for nothing.
Utah lost Millsap & AL Jefferson for nothing.
DET lost Greg Monroe for nothing.

Those losses are not easy to rectify.

Minnesota is a perfect example of being proactive. They traded Kevin Love before the start of his final season (he was expected to opt out) and got a great young prospect as a result.

I don't want AL to leave...at all. But if we fear/suspect he might walk away for nothing...or if we get a Godfather offer from a contender...we'd be foolish not to even consider it.

[Jamaaliver]

Actually, no. It really isn't more complicated than that, in fact it is far less complicated than the mental gymnastics you performed to say that the trade only netted the Hawks Hardaway and a few 2nd rounders. No Joe trade no TPE, not TPE no Kyle. It was stacked as a non-simultaneous trade to get that through, saying otherwise is just a poor attempt to reduce the assets obtained from the Joe trade. That and OKC can't really loom if they just gave Kanter a $70 million contract, in addition to Steven Adams and oh yea Serge Ibaka. Unless Durant leaves where are they getting the money and why does a crowded frontcourt and no Durant entice Horford so badly?

Ummm....



I have zero desire to argue. So, again, to preserve the peace:

I'll just say...ok.

[MaceCase]

In the effort of preserving peace just say you are wrong and that there is absolutely nothing to argue. You were wrong before, you are wrong today and you will be wrong tomorrow. History and facts tend to be funny that way in the face of biased opinions.

Your agenda is evident in the manner in which you are attempting to deconstruct the entire existence of free agency without presenting even a modicum of context or facts.

Utah didn't give a damn about Millsap and Jefferson that the first thing they did on free agency is eliminate their capholds.

Stan Van Gundy asked too much for Monroe and ended up flat on his face.

The Lakers gave up absolutely nothing to end up with the best player in the Dwight Howard trade.

Pau was absolutely done in LA and making 19.3 million, not exactly a hot commodity to fetch anything on the trade market.

Bosh was sign and traded to the Heat for two 1st rounders.

Aldridge had to play through a hand injury that needed surgery just to get the Blazers to 51 wins. Perhaps they should have punted on the season rather than attempting to build on their first 2nd round appearance in 15 years.

Harden was a restricted free agent.

Love made the Timberwolves proactive by uhm, demanding a trade and threatening to opt out. Real foresight the Wolves had there, waiting to get forced over a barrel.

Rondo, Boston recognized a tire fire and that their exact roster was better without him. Worked some shamrock magic to get a desperate Dallas unwilling to waste Dirk's twilight to take him for a song and a protected 1st.






So essentially we've boiled down actual reasons to consider trading Al should be:

a) he somehow becomes restricted with the team also fearing the luxury tax.
b) the team somehow fearing the luxury tax.
c) demands a trade and/or states that he will never re-sign.
d) if the Hawks determine that he's not in their future plans.

Anything short of that is just chicken little being at it again.

[Jamaaliver]

In the effort of preserving peace just say you are wrong and that there is absolutely nothing to argue. You were wrong before, you are wrong today and you will be wrong tomorrow. History and facts tend to be funny that way in the face of biased opinions.

Your agenda is evident in the manner in which you are attempting to deconstruct the entire existence of free agency without presenting even a modicum of context or facts...

Oh...
dear...
God...

You're trying to start an argument...but no one is arguing with you.

I do not want to trade AL. His motivation for reaching FA is, understandably, financial. But teams are going to woo him like crazy next summer. Unless he pulls a Marc Gasol and completely refuses to meet with any other teams in Free Agency, there's always the possibility (however slight) that he could be wooed elsewhere.

As I've stated multiple times. I don't think he leaves. I don't want him moved.

But responsible stewardship requires looking at every alternative scenario.

Again. There's no need to argue. To 'destroy'. To start a fight when PK and I are having a conversation.

I understand NY/NJ/Philly cats are very combative & abrasive. But calm down, man.

People are allowed to have opinions. It's okay. I promise.

Relax. Hug your wife. Play with your kids. Have some wine.

It's still the off-season.

Grown-ups are allowed to interact without attacking each other out of spite...or boredom...or just general dislike.

It's called having a conversation...

Here are funny emoji to brighten your day:

[PandaKidd]

If someone offered us Andrew Wiggins type talent for AH AFTER AH stated he would never resign here, trade him.

Thats not the situation doe.

The caveat between us is that I dont think we are letting AH walk for "nothing" because I believe in trade, we would get "nothing" anyway. So, do you trade him for NOTHING, or do you run the risk of letting him walk for "nothing" but a shot to resign him? Id take the option of signing him (hope).

I bet if you tested the trade market on AH right now, its EXTREMELY soft. Youll get back a bunch of 2nd rounders and future worthless picks we will screw up anyway

[PandaKidd]

That list is a bit...lacking. (It doesn't include OKC panicking and trading Harden.

That was more about luxury tax, Ressler has said he would be willing to pay the tax if needed. OKC was NOT. They didnt lose him for nothing, they got back assets (almost an All Star in Kevin Martin who averaged 19PPG the year before. a 1st round pick in LAMB who was highly thought of, and i think future picks).

Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb, two first-round picks and a second-round pick in the surprising deal that was completed Saturday night

So, if someone offered us a 19PPG Scorer, a first round pick, and 2 MORE first round picks, Id seriously think about it. Not happening.

Or LAL wisely shipping off All Star C Andrew Bynum a year before FA and getting D12 in the first place.

Bynum had injury concerns, knees were already suspect. D12 was in a situation that AH is not in, he hated the coach and the FO. Totally different situations.

Boston trading the rotting corpse of Rajon Rondo for draft picks.

Again, totally different situation. Hawks are in their "prime" right now, Boston was rebuilding. If we had lost PM AND DMC AND somehow like teague or something, then i could see us doing something like that. Rondo also was coming off injury and hasnt been the same played in almost 3 years.


But it does highlight my greater point:

Portland lost LaMarcus for nothing.

Dont you think Portland knows that? Why didnt they trade him? thats MY point, is it doesnt happen because they were prob offered a 1st round pick for him and that is it. Why trade assets when you can just SIGN them in 4 months ?

Lakers lost Dwight & Pau for nothing.

They traded Bynum and his NEVER playing again for 1 year rental of D12 who was injured anyway. Wash. Id have to see what other trade offers they had for Bynum to see if it was really "nothing".

Pau was 19.3 million a year, untrade-able at that salary with his injuries at THAT time.

Toronto lost Bosh for nothing.

TOR got back Draft Picks IIRC

Utah lost Millsap & AL Jefferson for nothing.

Agreed, but, I think they were ok with it. +1 to you.

DET lost Greg Monroe for nothing.

Think that was the plan all along.

Minnesota is a perfect example of being proactive. They traded Kevin Love before the start of his final season (he was expected to opt out) and got a great young prospect as a result.

BRILLIANT MOVE, and IMO all time DUMB move by CAVs. I think 5 years from now youll say that was one of the dumbest things they ever did was let Wiggins go for injury prone , soft Kevin Love (not a fan). Lebron needed youth. having Wiggins on the wing , with HIS mentorship, man..................

No one is offering a deal like that to us. CLE did it because LEbron made them do it.

[Jamaaliver]

I bet if you tested the trade market on AH right now, its EXTREMELY soft. Youll get back a bunch of 2nd rounders and future worthless picks we will screw up anyway

Wow.

I think that's the disconnect then. I see Horford as a top 20 player in his prime.

His only concern moving forward are injury concerns.

I'm thinking he's easily worth lottery picks and young talent.

All Star-All NBA-best jump shooting (space creating) big man in the NBA.

Wow. I didn't realize we viewed AH as having such little value in the league.

This...genuinely astounds me. How can we justify offering $25 million when the market for him is so soft?