Peaks project #6

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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#41 » by 70sFan » Tue Sep 15, 2015 3:54 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
Spoiler:


This is only true if you base your opinions only on the box score. KG and Robinson equal (actually in Robinson's case well exceed) Mailman's offensive production while being the two greatest defensive players of the modern era.

They are two different classes of player. Malone does not deserve mention yet.


I agree that Admiral had better peak (mainly because of his defense) but Moses was better offensive player than both. Who cares that he had TOV problems? His offensive rebounding gave him huge offensive impact, also he was better scorer (especialy than KG) and drawed more fouls (well, David also draws many fouls, KG didn't).
I would rank them:
1995 Robinson
1983 Moses
2004 KG
I'm not as high on KG as most posters here (probably because I'm not high on advanced numbers, more on eye-test). KG was amazing defender (clearly better than MM) but his offense was worse than either David or Moses (especially Moses).
These 3 players aren't "different classes of players". That's not true, they are close.


Oh crap. Thought he was referring to Karl.


Well, if so I would agree with you :)
Karl was never as good as David and KG though I think he was slightly better offensive player than KG, but gap in defense is very big (Malone was great man defender and overall good defender while KG was probably the best PF defender ever).
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#42 » by bastillon » Tue Sep 15, 2015 3:55 pm

Just to touch on one more aspect of Hakeem vs. Duncan vs. KG debate.
By far the biggest difference between those guys is the post. On both ends: post offense and post defense.

Post offense:
-Hakeem demanded more attention than any player. The number of times he was shooting over double teams is incredible. And he had to be doing that for the Rockets to win those titles. He had to have that kind of offensive burden on his back.

-Hakeem was an unstoppable scorer. There is nothing to say except this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22O2lApCBBs
Versatility of his scoring, the number of counter-moves, range on his jumpshot. Neither Duncan nor KG were anywhere near this level. Go check out how many times Hakeem was limited below 25 pts in the playoffs. Go look for the same stats for Duncan and Garnett. They nowhere near this level. Only prime Shaq was this consistent as a playoff scorer.

-Incredibly underrated playmaking. After Tomjanovich joined the team and made Hakeem focal point of the offense, his assists skyrocketed to 4-5 per game in 93-95 playoffs. Dude gave you basically 30 pts/4.5 assists (to be precise 29.8 pts, 4.4 assists in 93-95 playoffs on average). Neither Duncan nor KG can say the same. Those assists also came in different ways. Facing up, back to the basket, hell, even driving down the lane. People look at Hakeem's stats from the regular season and don't realise that he was a different animal in the playoffs - an animal called 'monster'. See for yourself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_rUGEOMi6g

-Hakeem sustained his high level of play against the very best. D-Rob, Mourning, Mutombo, Shaq, Walton, Parish, Ewing, Grant, Malone, Kemp. He faced them all. At no point could you say Hakeem was contained by any of those players. You know that you were gonna get 25+ every single night on great efficiency despite incredible defensive attention from entire opposing team. The same cannot be said for KG and Duncan who have showed many times they tend to play worse against high level of opposition. Sheed for example stopped them both. Hakeem beat far superior defensive players than Sheed and sustained his high level of play. What matters is how you perform against the very best, and that's when Hakeem was delivering every single time.

Post defense:
-Hakeem consistently contained top offensive stars of his generation on a consistent basis. There was a study on realGM where every great defensive center from the 90s was analysed and Hakeem was the one whose h2h defense was the best.

-Hakeem famously demolished players in the postseason like no one else did. Parish in 86, Kemp in 93, Ewing in 94, Robinson in 95, Shaq in 95 (even though his stats look good at first glance, that's because of high mins; his per minute stats are some of the worst of his career, his efficiency is also sub-par for his standards due to career high turnovers). The list goes on and on. Nobody had as many signature defensive performances as Hakeem does.

-Take Ewing for example: while being guarded single coverage, scored 18.9 ppg in 44 mpg, with 36% FG, had twice as many turnovers as assists and 85 ORtg. Compare this to the series before against Pacers in ECF: Ewing put up 22.3 in 40 mins, 46% FG, 106 ORtg. This is despite being double teamed by Pacers most of the time. So Hakeem basically had -10% impact on his FG and forced more turnovers. He did that playing single coverage as opposed to team-based defense like Pacers.
I dare you to find an example like that for Garnett or Duncan. This is why Hakeem is #1 post defender of all-time. The only one even arguable is imo Nate Thurmond.

-Duncan is good at containing FG%, KG is good at denying the FGA in the first place. Hakeem does both at elite level.

-Duncan is a great shotblocker, KG is great is great at forcing mistakes. Hakeem does both at elite level, and both better than Duncan and KG respectively.
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#43 » by Purch » Tue Sep 15, 2015 3:56 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
Spoiler:


This is only true if you base your opinions only on the box score. KG and Robinson equal (actually in Robinson's case well exceed) Mailman's offensive production while being the two greatest defensive players of the modern era.

They are two different classes of player. Malone does not deserve mention yet.


I agree that Admiral had better peak (mainly because of his defense) but Moses was better offensive player than both. Who cares that he had TOV problems? His offensive rebounding gave him huge offensive impact, also he was better scorer (especialy than KG) and drawed more fouls (well, David also draws many fouls, KG didn't).
I would rank them:
1995 Robinson
1983 Moses
2004 KG
I'm not as high on KG as most posters here (probably because I'm not high on advanced numbers, more on eye-test). KG was amazing defender (clearly better than MM) but his offense was worse than either David or Moses (especially Moses).
These 3 players aren't "different classes of players". That's not true, they are close.


Oh crap. Thought he was referring to Karl.


Means you didn't read the post lol. Worth the read
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#44 » by Joao Saraiva » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:30 pm

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
Joao Saraiva wrote:
SKF_85 wrote:1st ballot: 65 Bill Russell

Russell had unparalleled defensive impact while anchoring historically dominant defenses. Since Russell's defensive impact was so huge, I don't think it makes sense to rank his peak much lower than top 5 unless he was a major negative/liability on offense. Although Russell's offensive skill-set was limited, I think he was far from a major liability on offense due to his underrated passing and ball handling. His passing and ball handling were more than good enough for Russell to be a valuable secondary passer when needed and initiate fast breaks. I'd like to make it clear that I'm not suggesting that Russell was a plus on offense, however, I highly doubt he was worse than a slight minus, which wouldn't take much away from his GOAT level defensive impact.   

2nd ballot: 93 Hakeem Olajuwon

I could also go with 94, but I think 93 was Hakeem's top regular season with his best combination of offense and defense. Also had one of his most impressive playoffs, especially on defense.

3rd ballot: 04 Kevin Garnett

Although it looks like Duncan will get voted in at least a couple spots ahead of Garnett, I have to give at least a slight edge to peak Garnett. I prefer his more diverse/versatile and extremely portable skill-set and think he had higher overall impact than Duncan due to his GOAT level PnR defense, all-time great passing/playmaking for a big and ability to warp defenses with his shooting range. Garnett led the 04 Wolves to the 2nd best SRS and a top 5 offense (+3 relative ORtg) and top 6 defense (-3.2 relative DRtg), which is more impressive than it sounds since his supporting cast wasn't anything special on offense (Cassell was the exception) and full of subpar defenders.


I never saw Russell playing but how do you feel about Hakeem's defensive impact against Russell's?

Because if you're considering Russell a slight minus on offense (I don't know, I don't have an opinion on that) I feel like Hakeem absolutely crushes him in that regard. And it's hard for me to imagine a defensive impact that is much better than Hakeem's. He's clearly the player with the most impact I ever saw on defense.


A quote from Dipper

Dipper 13 wrote:
Dream was very comparable to Russell in many areas, though Russell also cleaned the defensive boards like Garnett or Rodman. He was so quick at recovering from above the FT line to block a shot, much like this below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE6kIu34Qsc&t=39m42s" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Also his hands were even quicker than his feet on defense. Hakeem is proof (to all the "weak era" detractors) that Russell would dominate in the modern era.


Technically, his rebound rate, while steller, was nothing out of this world, but It was still markedly better than Hakeem's
Russell was definately a much better shot blocker (probably the greatest of all time in that regard, Thurmond might have been mad at Wilt but he ranked Russell and himself ahead of Wilt in that regard)
I would assume that He was more of a "leader" on defense. And when I say leader, I mean Tim Duncan Esque leadership, maybe even surpassing it.

Russell was probably quicker, as crazy as it may seem, on defense, or at least was better at "anticipating" things (defensive bball iq is unparallelled).

His teams went from a resounding first in every year he had been in the league on defense, excluding 1 year, to barely above league average when he retired.

His one on one defense had always been very good, but considering his weight, im not sure how he would do today. (240 pounds, a davis like frame to be honest)
he said he could touch the top of the backboard. Personally, I think Russell is a great guy, so I would take his word for his own achievements

(basically, in terms of scaling for the modern era, his team was around +7-8 in Russells last year with the Celtics.
With only him and 1 other perimeter player I think leaving, this rating went to around +0.1, and this was a 34 year old russell with around 1000 games of mileage on his body)


Thanks a lot. It was a pleasure to read.
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Re: RE: Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#45 » by SactoKingsFan » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:42 pm

Joao Saraiva wrote:
SKF_85 wrote:1st ballot: 65 Bill Russell

Russell had unparalleled defensive impact while anchoring historically dominant defenses. Since Russell's defensive impact was so huge, I don't think it makes sense to rank his peak much lower than top 5 unless he was a major negative/liability on offense. Although Russell's offensive skill-set was limited, I think he was far from a major liability on offense due to his underrated passing and ball handling. His passing and ball handling were more than good enough for Russell to be a valuable secondary passer when needed and initiate fast breaks. I'd like to make it clear that I'm not suggesting that Russell was a plus on offense, however, I highly doubt he was worse than a slight minus, which wouldn't take much away from his GOAT level defensive impact.   

2nd ballot: 93 Hakeem Olajuwon

I could also go with 94, but I think 93 was Hakeem's top regular season with his best combination of offense and defense. Also had one of his most impressive playoffs, especially on defense.

3rd ballot: 04 Kevin Garnett

Although it looks like Duncan will get voted in at least a couple spots ahead of Garnett, I have to give at least a slight edge to peak Garnett. I prefer his more diverse/versatile and extremely portable skill-set and think he had higher overall impact than Duncan due to his GOAT level PnR defense, all-time great passing/playmaking for a big and ability to warp defenses with his shooting range. Garnett led the 04 Wolves to the 2nd best SRS and a top 5 offense (+3 relative ORtg) and top 6 defense (-3.2 relative DRtg), which is more impressive than it sounds since his supporting cast wasn't anything special on offense (Cassell was the exception) and full of subpar defenders.


I never saw Russell playing but how do you feel about Hakeem's defensive impact against Russell's?

Because if you're considering Russell a slight minus on offense (I don't know, I don't have an opinion on that) I feel like Hakeem absolutely crushes him in that regard. And it's hard for me to imagine a defensive impact that is much better than Hakeem's. He's clearly the player with the most impact I ever saw on defense.


I don't think any player has had more defensive impact than Russell. He anchored several historically great defenses and prime Russell's Celtics had the most dominant multi year (9 seasons) defensive run in league history. I see most of Russell's defensive impact translating to different eras since he was very athletic and had GOAT level defensive instincts. One of the issues that comes up in discussions regarding Hakeem's peak and prime, which has been mentioned in previous threads, is that as good as Hakeem was during his overall peak (93/94) his defensive peak didn't coincide with his offensive peak. I think this leaves enough room to rank Russell's peak slightly higher than Hakeem's.
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#46 » by eminence » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:54 pm

Feel like Hakeem and Duncan faced very similar levels of defense in 93-94 and 02-03.

Hakeem: 12th, 16th, 7th, and 1st rated defenses in that order.

Duncan: 11th, 19th, 9th, and 1st in that order.

Not a heavy swing either way. Individual defenders for Hakeem are better known, but Duncan's early 2000 runs are recognized as being during the most oppressive defensive era in league history. As far as I can tell level of competition isn't a very good argument to use against Duncan (at least in 02-03).
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#47 » by bastillon » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:57 pm

Tim Duncan-esque leadership on defense? How is that a thing? I could definitely see "Waltonesque" "KG-esque" or "Ewing-like", considering that those guys are great examples of defensive leadership. Tim Duncan was never vocal, didn't exactly tell people what to do. The leader of San Antonio Spurs on defense was clearly Popovich. There's no need to give Duncan credit for this, specifically because Duncan is already such a great player that he doesn't need to get superficially hyped up. Duncan was never at this level in that respect. I can point you to numerous KG games where he's hyping up everyone on defense, telling them where to be at all times etc. We also have a lot of accounts saying how much it means to have KG on defense, how he makes other play better (Doc, Pierce, people from Brooklyn). I can point to 77 finals as primary example of Walton's leadership on defense. Show me any game where Duncan exerts his leadership.

Some "experts" on this site often mention how Duncan is a 'quiet leader'. WTF is that even supposed to mean? As in 'ain't no leader, just artificially gets hyped up as one'? Leadership isn't some magical unicorn that you don't see in-game. It's about actions. Communication. Energy. The sh*t you saw from Ray Lewis on the Ravens. That's leadership. This guy was getting everyone hyped up for the game which had real impact. Let's be clear about this, Duncan was never a leader on defense. Avery Johnson was much more of a leader than Duncan. Tony Allen is a leader on defense. Gary Payton was a leader. Not Tim Duncan. He has many great qualities, but not leadership on defense.

If anything, Russell should be getting mentioned with Bill Walton, KG and Ewing as guys who really set the done defensively and were pretty much defensive quarterbacks for their respective teams (moreso Walton and KG).
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#48 » by bastillon » Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:17 pm

eminence wrote:Feel like Hakeem and Duncan faced very similar levels of defense in 93-94 and 02-03.

Hakeem: 12th, 16th, 7th, and 1st rated defenses in that order.

Duncan: 11th, 19th, 9th, and 1st in that order.

Not a heavy swing either way. Individual defenders for Hakeem are better known, but Duncan's early 2000 runs are recognized as being during the most oppressive defensive era in league history. As far as I can tell level of competition isn't a very good argument to use against Duncan (at least in 02-03).


That is a very raw analysis.
You should break down those teams to see what made them good to begin with. For instance Nets thrived because of their perimeter defense and rotations. Meanwhile their interior defense was actually quite average. Kenyon Martin was no shutdown defender. Meanwhile Knicks were quite good in terms of perimeter defense, but what made them truly all-time dominant defense was their interior defense. So to compare those two teams and conclude that they were equal opposition is ignoring this obviously important information. I mean really, can you tell me with a straight face that Nets with Kenyon/Jason Collins were as good as Ewing/Mason/Oakley? Like really?

Duncan played against: Amare Stoudemire, Horry/Medvedenko, LaFrentz/Najera (Dirk injured), Kenyon/Collins
Dream played against: Buck Williams/Cliff Robinson, AC Green/Miller, Spencer/Karl Malone, Ewing/Mason/Oakley

This is how I would rank those interior defenses 1 to 8:
1. NY Knicks - Ewing/Mason/Oakley (vs. Hakeem)
2. Utah - Spencer/Malone (vs. Hakeem)
3. Blazers - Buck Williams/Cliff Robinson (vs. Hakeem)
4. Nets - Kenyon/Collins (vs. Duncan)
5. Phoenix Suns AC Green/Miller (vs. Hakeem)
6. Dallas Mavericks - LaFrentz/Najera (vs. Duncan)
7. LA Lakers - Horry/Medvedenko (vs. Duncan)
8. Suns - Amare (vs. Duncan)

This isn't even really debatable. I mean you could argue whether Nets were better than Blazers due to their team defense. But there is no argument that Dallas/LA/Suns had frontlines which were huge liabilities. Everyone and their mama knew that you have to abuse Lakers PF's. Casters mentioned this all the time during Lakers' games at the time. Everyone was torching them. I mean the same year KG put up like 27/16/5 on them. Similarly, everyone knows that LaFrentz/Najera are not known for their defense. As for Amare: viewtopic.php?t=1177509

So no, you can't make argument that Duncan faced similar competition. Duncan was eaten alive in 04 by washed up Karl Malone who was basically saying goodbye to basketball; think what would happen vs. prime Karl Malone. The same goes for NY's frontline. Duncan has never faced anything like that other. They would roll over Duncan. The stiffest defense he faced were 04 Pistons, but even they weren't on Knicks level in terms of interior defense. Sheed was an extremely good post defender, one of the best of his generation. But he ain't no Ewing man.
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#49 » by PaulieWal » Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:26 pm

Apologies for taking a break from the project. I should be able to contribute a bit more moving forward. There's been some good discussion here and the 3 candidates that I would choose here are Hakeem, Duncan, and KG.

I have flip-flopped on Duncan and Hakeem. I think Hakeem 94 and Duncan 03 are both amazing seasons. I give Duncan the slight edge over Hakeem and KG. KG too had an incredible season but I'd take Duncan over both. I also think Duncan's offense gets maligned sometimes but he's really not that far behind Hakeem/KG (if at all). I will take Duncan's consistent two way play over both of those guys and this isn't to say that they weren't consistent either. This has been a huge shift for me. I always used to value Hakeem's peak over Duncan's but after going back and doing some more analysis I am not convinced that peak Hakeem was > peak Duncan.

RS Raw Stats

Code: Select all

Rk             Player   MP  FGA  FG% eFG%  FT%  TRB AST STL BLK  PTS
1          Tim Duncan 39.3 17.2 .513 .515 .710 12.9 3.9 0.7 2.9 23.3
2       Kevin Garnett 39.4 19.6 .499 .502 .791 13.9 5.0 1.5 2.2 24.2
3    Hakeem Olajuwon* 41.0 21.2 .528 .530 .716 11.9 3.6 1.6 3.7 27.3


RS Advanced Stats

Code: Select all

Rk             Player   MP  PER  TS%  FTr TRB% AST% STL% BLK% USG% WS/48 OBPM DBPM BPM
1          Tim Duncan 3181 26.9 .564 .455 19.0 19.5  0.9  5.2 28.0  .248  3.3  4.2 7.4
2       Kevin Garnett 3231 29.4 .547 .289 20.1 24.4  2.0  4.0 29.6  .272  4.9  5.0 9.9
3    Hakeem Olajuwon* 3277 25.3 .565 .320 16.2 16.4  2.0  5.7 29.8  .210  2.2  4.7 7.0


PS Raw Stats

Code: Select all

Rk             Player  G   MP  FG% eFG%  FT%  TRB AST STL BLK  PTS
1          Tim Duncan 24 42.5 .529 .529 .677 15.4 5.3 0.6 3.3 24.7
2       Kevin Garnett 18 43.5 .452 .458 .776 14.6 5.1 1.3 2.3 24.3
3    Hakeem Olajuwon* 23 43.0 .519 .521 .795 11.0 4.3 1.7 4.0 28.9


PS Advanced Stats

Code: Select all

Rk             Player   MP  PER  TS%  FTr TRB% AST% STL% BLK% USG% WS/48  BPM
1          Tim Duncan 1021 28.4 .577 .563 19.8 25.5  0.8  5.8 26.4  .279 11.6
2       Kevin Garnett  783 25.0 .513 .336 19.3 24.1  1.6  3.9 30.3  .163  6.2
3    Hakeem Olajuwon*  989 27.7 .568 .313 14.5 20.4  2.2  6.5 31.4  .208  9.1


Ballot 1 - Duncan 03

Ballot 2 - Hakeem 94

Ballot 3 - KG 04
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#50 » by eminence » Tue Sep 15, 2015 9:15 pm

bastillon wrote:
eminence wrote:Feel like Hakeem and Duncan faced very similar levels of defense in 93-94 and 02-03.

Hakeem: 12th, 16th, 7th, and 1st rated defenses in that order.

Duncan: 11th, 19th, 9th, and 1st in that order.

Not a heavy swing either way. Individual defenders for Hakeem are better known, but Duncan's early 2000 runs are recognized as being during the most oppressive defensive era in league history. As far as I can tell level of competition isn't a very good argument to use against Duncan (at least in 02-03).


That is a very raw analysis.
You should break down those teams to see what made them good to begin with. For instance Nets thrived because of their perimeter defense and rotations. Meanwhile their interior defense was actually quite average. Kenyon Martin was no shutdown defender. Meanwhile Knicks were quite good in terms of perimeter defense, but what made them truly all-time dominant defense was their interior defense. So to compare those two teams and conclude that they were equal opposition is ignoring this obviously important information. I mean really, can you tell me with a straight face that Nets with Kenyon/Jason Collins were as good as Ewing/Mason/Oakley? Like really?

Duncan played against: Amare Stoudemire, Horry/Medvedenko, LaFrentz/Najera (Dirk injured), Kenyon/Collins
Dream played against: Buck Williams/Cliff Robinson, AC Green/Miller, Spencer/Karl Malone, Ewing/Mason/Oakley

This is how I would rank those interior defenses 1 to 8:
1. NY Knicks - Ewing/Mason/Oakley (vs. Hakeem)
2. Utah - Spencer/Malone (vs. Hakeem)
3. Blazers - Buck Williams/Cliff Robinson (vs. Hakeem)
4. Nets - Kenyon/Collins (vs. Duncan)
5. Phoenix Suns AC Green/Miller (vs. Hakeem)
6. Dallas Mavericks - LaFrentz/Najera (vs. Duncan)
7. LA Lakers - Horry/Medvedenko (vs. Duncan)
8. Suns - Amare (vs. Duncan)

This isn't even really debatable. I mean you could argue whether Nets were better than Blazers due to their team defense. But there is no argument that Dallas/LA/Suns had frontlines which were huge liabilities. Everyone and their mama knew that you have to abuse Lakers PF's. Casters mentioned this all the time during Lakers' games at the time. Everyone was torching them. I mean the same year KG put up like 27/16/5 on them. Similarly, everyone knows that LaFrentz/Najera are not known for their defense. As for Amare: viewtopic.php?t=1177509

So no, you can't make argument that Duncan faced similar competition. Duncan was eaten alive in 04 by washed up Karl Malone who was basically saying goodbye to basketball; think what would happen vs. prime Karl Malone. The same goes for NY's frontline. Duncan has never faced anything like that other. They would roll over Duncan. The stiffest defense he faced were 04 Pistons, but even they weren't on Knicks level in terms of interior defense. Sheed was an extremely good post defender, one of the best of his generation. But he ain't no Ewing man.


You massively underrate the Martin/Collins defensive pairing, solidly the second best defensive group there. And Karl Malone really ate Duncan up in 03-04, to the tune of 10/8 a game on 44% from the field… You've got yourself a pretty obvious Hakeem agenda here (Duncan no leadership…) and it's really not worth talking about any more.
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#51 » by The-Power » Tue Sep 15, 2015 9:25 pm

My votes, which didn't change.

Spoiler:
I can keep it short here, maybe for the next few rounds, because my main arguments won't change. I'll participate in further discussions about these players (or other players for that matter) when I feel like it's necessary or worth it and I can find the time.

1st Ballot: David Robinson (1995)
2nd Ballot: Kevin Garnett (2004)
3rd Ballot: Tim Duncan (2003)

Some reasoning for all three players (http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=44639510#p44639510)
[spoiler]
The-Power wrote:I didn't vote in the last thread because I was short on time and it was pretty clear from the start that LeBron, i.e. my choice, is going to take the third spot. It should be closer this time.

1st Ballot: David Robinson (1995)

Still an unpopular choice, probably even for the 2nd or 3rd ballot, but I'll stick with Robinson nevertheless. My short reasoning here:

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=44629555#p44629555

One thing I want to address is the Spurs' defensive performance pre-injury Robinson during the playoffs.
[...] wrote:Taken as a whole, it seems to me that Robinson's defensive performance in the postseason at his peak is not notably better than his scoring performance in the postseason.

You're referring to the expected DRTG calculated by lorak and based this statement of it. But this strikes me as strange to be honest. The mean is 2.1 / 11 = 0.191. This means that on average, the Spurs with pre-injury Robinson performed 0.191 points in worse in their expected DRTG each series. Relative to their RS-DRTG in 1995 (simply to illustrate the relation, no need to use weighted seasons) that's 0.0018%. In other words: it's minor and certainly no pattern. Actually, contrary to your inference, it proves that the Spurs' defense performed exactly as we would expect given their regular seasons which indicates absolute translation of Robinson's defense into the postseason.

Sure, that's on average and without context but it's what the data shows us. It's fine if you want to point out to the worse-than-expected defense against the Rockets and Jazz. But in this case we're going to single out certain series. And regardless of the reasons this means that a) the sample size becomes even smaller and b) it is even more necessary to apply context. The former could lead to a discussion about the applicability of such a small set of data due to reliability-issues and regarding the latter Dr Spacemen already provided some reasons as to what influenced the overall defensive performance against the Rockets negatively.

And by the way, strictly talking about the 1994/95 season (i.e. the season we're talking about as the single-year peak) the Spurs' clearly over-performed defensively.

2nd Ballot: Kevin Garnett (2004)

Garnett's and Robinson's cases are very similar and this explains the discrepancy among some voters. Those who are high on Robinson are likely to be high on Garnett and vice versa. And those who are not high on one of them aren't high on both most likely. A consequent use of my personal criteria makes a high placement of Garnett mandatory. Not necessarily at this spot but in general.

However, Garnett's impact on his team was ridiculous in 2004 (and in any other year actually, but that's not important here). Garnett is the king of on/off numbers during his peak in Minnesota, posting an astounding +20.7 in 2004 (second to 2003 with +23.6, solidifying his impact in 2004). RAPM constantly loves the guy and his RAPM in 2004, at least according to the source I've got access to, is the third highest since 2002 among players (only behind peak LeBron (2009, 2010) and Duncan (2007) by a hair). He had tremendous impact on offense and defense, consequently leading his team to a really good ORTG (5th in the league) and DRTG (6th in the league) and a 58-24 record despite an at least not-so-special (albeit better than usual until 2008) supporting cast.

His playoffs weren't individually efficient but still very good, especially his 1st round. His teams, using the same procedure as it was done for Robinson above, his team underperformed defensively against the Lakers and performed better than expected in the first two rounds – overall the DRTG exceeded the statistical expectation by -0.5 points. Offensively, the team underperformed against in the 2nd round, was better than expected in the WCF and performed as good as expected in the 1st round – overall the ORTG was 1.6 points below statistical expectation. We don't know if this has something to do with Garnett's worse individual scoring efficiency or with other factors, probably a combination of both with uncertain allocation. Garnett's impact, however, was likely very large again even though we can't use the on/off data due to the sample size of the off-data (and even if we still want to mention it, his ridiculous on/off-rating was mostly a result of the first round; during the following two rounds the bench was roughly neutral) but I see nothing what clearly separates him from Robinson as far as playoffs are concerned and I value Robinson's regular season higher. But both guys belong close to each other in terms of peak.

3rd Ballot: Tim Duncan (2003 or 2007)

Again, very close. He has an argument over Garnett and maybe even Robinson, although a weaker one in my opinion, but likewise there are players who have an argument over Duncan. I'm thinking about Hakeem in particular, but also Wilt and Russell, as well as Kareem (although to me there are some question-marks about his peak-impact) and I feel like even '87 Magic, who I'm relatively high on (higher than on any season of Bird for instance), could be an option despite his defensive shortcomings (who are less dramatic during the era he played in, in my book his defense didn't negatively impact his team as much as it's sometimes advertised although it still left a lot to be desired).

Anyway, I might change my choice in the course of further discussion. But at least for now I'm going with Tim Duncan. On/off-data and RAPM (in 2003) are impressive for him as well, although worse than it is for Garnett. But RAPM also suggests that his impact was at its highest level in 2007 and it's one of the highest RAPM ever recorded while his on-off data was still on the same level (except for the playoffs, but due to the small amount of minutes on the bench I tend to disregard it almost completely). He anchored the 2nd best defense in the league without David Robinson, who was still a defensive anchor in 2003, which makes it extremely impressive. He played significantly less minutes in 2007 compared to 2003, which favors 2003 as his peak if you consider both versions to be at a similar individual level, but I'm absolutely not sure which version to take. Statistically they are very comparable with a slight edge for 2003, but in terms of team-performance (granted, we need context here) and maybe individual impact 2007 might be his best campaign. But I'll dig into it and decide in later rounds or when we have an extra thread to determine his peak-year although 2007 probably won't stand a chance anyway.

Additional/initial reasoning for David Robinson (http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=44629555#p44629555)
Spoiler:
The-Power wrote:My voting (after a lengthy deliberation):

1st ballot: '13 LeBron
2nd ballot: '00 Shaq
3rd ballot: '95 Robinson

I already gave my reasoning concerning LeBron and Shaq, so I won't repeat myself.

Robinson should be an unpopular vote this early but this has at least something to do with the perception and evaluation of his playoffs. I want to emphasize, however, that The Admiral during his peak had three regular seasons which are not only very impressive but have a legitimate case for the greatest regular seasons in history. He's, in my opinion, the best defender of the options I posted earlier. Garnett has a case, especially in some situations, but I prefer Robinson overall. He was an elite rim-protector but also for his strength and size incredibly mobile. As far as defense is concerned he has a decent case as the greatest of all time peak-wise - or let's say second to Russell when we're talking about impact - and should be a lock for the top five. We have some DRAPM data for his post-injury seasons available and it shows extremely high impact. This impact should be even higher during his peak because from what I watched and recall his defense didn't suffer from his bigger role on offense and he was at his athletic peak, and already a savvy defender. And on top of that he also anchored the offense, scored on an extremely high volume (higher than any other player mentioned before) on a per 100 basis. He did it at great efficiency at that, roughly 0.06 TS% above league average which is elite for a volume scorer. He was a decent playmaker as well, although not the best among his peers or the guys mentioned. The Spurs' ORTG was well-above and the DRTG well-below league average, although in both cases not at an elite level. But since one player can only do so much anyway we can't draw final conclusion on that. However, we do have on/off numbers for the '94, '95 and '96 seasons and they are absolutely fantastic (close to +20 I believe), almost KG peak-level and KG is probably the king of raw on/off due to his tremendous impact relative to his poor supporting cast. This is nothing to disregard, especially those who like to put some emphasis on regular season and reliable data and less on narratives and a few poor performances.

Of course the playoffs aren't something to simply disregard either. He couldn't maintain his level in the postseason and even though the sample size is extremely limited, it carries some weight for sure. But let's start with acknowledging three things: a) he didn't play extremely poor, he just fell from an extremely high level offensively; b) we can assume that his impact on defense acutally carried into the postseason, it's very rare for elite defenders to not maintain their high level during the postseason; and c) the sample size has to be an issue. But I'm totally willing to admit that his scoring game was overall less reliable during the postseasons. So his offensive prodution dropped, but it dropped from a very high level. The postseason somewhat unveiled that he is best suited as a strong second option on offense - in this role, he's arguably the best one available because nobody else in history provides his combination of efficient scoring on high volume, team-friendly attitude, versatility on both ends and elite defense. And such a player in such a role would likely be still the best player on every team unless it has peak-Jordan or peak-LeBron (let's leave Shaq out here for position reasons) on it. So while we have to punish him a little bit for not being a true go-to-guy compared to other all-time greats come playoff-time, I'm not willing to blame him too much for not being used in his best role and basically wipe away his entire peak-performance because of it. If his main or only value would be his offense, it would be another story. But that's not the case. To simplify for illustration: someone who was an 8 on offense and 10 on defense during the RS, and a 5/6 on offense and 10 on defense during the PS still has one of the best peaks in history of the NBA. If he had maintaned his production during the playoffs we would probably talk about the greatest peak in NBA history. He didn't, so he fell a bit - but since the current field is so close to each other anyway I really have no issues taking DRob here.


I would love to participate more actively but I'm already glad to even find the time to vote. I won't be able to share my thoughts or maybe even cast my ballot for the next two weeks or so due to a research leave. I want to inform especially trex so that he didn't smell an agenda when I'm back being (hopefully) more active. Keep it active guys, I'll try to soak up as much of your input as possible.
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#52 » by bastillon » Tue Sep 15, 2015 9:40 pm

PaulieWal wrote:Apologies for taking a break from the project. I should be able to contribute a bit more moving forward. There's been some good discussion here and the 3 candidates that I would choose here are Hakeem, Duncan, and KG.

I have flip-flopped on Duncan and Hakeem. I think Hakeem 94 and Duncan 03 are both amazing seasons. I give Duncan the slight edge over Hakeem and KG. KG too had an incredible season but I'd take Duncan over both. I also think Duncan's offense gets maligned sometimes but he's really not that far behind Hakeem/KG (if at all). I will take Duncan's consistent two way play over both of those guys and this isn't to say that they weren't consistent either. This has been a huge shift for me. I always used to value Hakeem's peak over Duncan's but after going back and doing some more analysis I am not convinced that peak Hakeem was > peak Duncan.



That is one of the most common mistakes people make when it comes to evaluating Tim Duncan. "Consistency". What does that mean to be consistent? To me it means that there is less variance in your performance. That you are going to perform regardless of your opposition. That you are not a streaky player and deliver at a certain level no matter what day is it.

Now let's take this definition of consistency and apply this for Tim Duncan:
Series to series variance. Duncan has showed a massive variance in his performance, and this is a continuing trend throughout his best years. He torches poor post defenses, and then gets shut down several games in a row by guys like Karl Malone and Horace Grant.

Let's take 2001 Duncan as an example.
01 - vs. KG: 22/13/3.5/104 ORtg
01 - vs. Juwan Howard: 27/17/3.6/107 ORtg
01 - vs. Horace Grant: 22/13/4.3ast/4.5tov, 54% TS, 99 ORtg

That is a MASSIVE variance in performance series-to-series. You can see that Duncan explodes vs. weak defense of Mavs, but is otherwise unimpressive. You can see that Duncan's performance is HIGHLY dependent on his opposition. He has showed profficiency in feasting on bad defenses, but also tends to play a lot worse vs quality defenders.

Day-to-day variance. Duncan has also showed a similar trends in-series. Let's take two series where Duncan completely crumbled down the stretch: 2001 vs. Lakers, 2004 vs. Lakers. In both series Spurs and Lakers were similar caliber teams in the RS and people expected them to go the distance.

01 vs. Grant
G1: 28/14/6/7tov, 101 ORtg
G2: 40/15/3/6tov, 118 ORtg
G3: 9(sic! that's NINE points)/13/7/3, 68 ORtg
G4: 15/7/1/2

Duncan was ok in game 1, massive in game 2, all-time no show in game 3 and then once again dropped the ball in game 4. Once Horace Grant figured him out. Duncan was SHUT-DOWN. Massive variance in his performance. Instead of supposedly consistent performance when it matters the most, it really seemed like a day-to-day discussion about what comes next. Hit or miss.

04 vs. Karl Malone
G1: 30/11/3/7
G2: 24/7/3/4
Then Karl Malone figured him out and Parker didn't penetrate the Lakers all night long, and this happened (from earlier today)
G3: 10 pts, 4-14, 6 turnovers, 2 assists
G4: 19 pts, 5-13, 2 turnovers, 8 assists
G5: 21 pts, 7-15, 7 turnovers, 2 assists
G6: 20 pts, 7-18, 2 turnovers, 2 assists


Once again, MASSIVE variance day to day. First 2 games averages 27 ppg, only to end up barely squeeking in 20 pts the rest of the series, or once dropping the ball completely with 10 points.

You wanna talk about consistency? Let me show you consistency:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id=&match=game&year_min=1993&year_max=1995&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=HOU&opp_id=&is_playoffs=Y&round_id=&game_num_type=&game_num_min=&game_num_max=&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&is_starter=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_c=Y&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=30&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts&order_by_asc=Y

Consistency is what the true monster was delivering. Out of 56 games with at least 30 mins played, Hakeem scored 25 or more pts in 46/56 games. He scored less than 20 pts TWICE. That is a ridiculous consistency, considering what monsters he was facing every series. I mean to face 13 games against David Robinson and Patrick Ewing and still score 25+ in 11/13 games?

Now let's do the same for Duncan:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id=&match=game&year_min=2001&year_max=2007&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=SAS&opp_id=&is_playoffs=Y&round_id=&game_num_type=&game_num_min=&game_num_max=&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&is_starter=Y&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_g=&pos_is_gf=&pos_is_f=&pos_is_fg=&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=30&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&is_dbl_dbl=&is_trp_dbl=&order_by=pts&order_by_asc=Y&offset=100

Out of 106 games, he had 57 games where he had less than 25 pts. 41 with less than 22 pts. 25 with less than 20 pts. 15 games with 15 pts or less. Basically 1/4th of Duncan's games he scored less than 20 pts in the postseason. Is that consistency?

Let's take it further and let's look at some games vs quality opponents (30 minutes played):
-vs. Sheed Blazers/Pistons
-2/10 games 25+ pts
-4/10 games less than 20 pts

-vs. KG Wolves
-2/7 games 25+ pts
-4/7 less than 20 pts

-vs. Grant/Malone Lakers
-3/10 games 25+ pts
-4/10 games 15 or less pts

-vs. Varejao
-0/4 games 25+ pts
-2/4 games less than 15 pts

-vs. Tyson Chandler
-0/7 games 25+ pts
-5/7 less than 20 pts
-2/7 10 pts or less

The only thing consistent about Duncan's performances is that he is underwhelming vs quality opponents. Between KG/Sheed/Grant/Malone/Varejao/Chandler, Duncan has had 7/38 games 25+ pt games. He has been consistently underperforming.

And it's not even about Duncan, it's about fans. You people should watch some videos. If you watch the tape, you can easily see that Duncan is highly limited as a post player. He has a poor jumpshot, he can't score for sh*t against double teams (he has to pass), lack of post moves, limited amount of counters. You should be able to do those things against double teams if you wanna consistently perform vs. high level opposition. That ugly ass bank shot can work against Amares and Vin Bakers of the world, but you ain't fooling Sheed or Karl Malone. I sincerely think that Duncan would get eaten alive by Ewing and Robinson with his limited post game.

So when it comes to consistency, Hakeem has a HUGE argument over Duncan. Consistency is Hakeem's best quality as an offensive player. You cannot stop this guy from scoring, basically. 46/56 25+ games in 93/95. 11/13 vs. Ewing/D-Rob. You can't argue with those facts. Hakeem faced the very best of all-time and he delivered CONSISTENTLY. Duncan on the other hand, consistently underperformed. In games I just analysed vs good defenders, he managed to score 25+ in 7/38 games. If you have trouble scoring vs. Tyson Chandler and Sheed, you would get destroyed by truly great post defenders - Ewing, D-Rob, Mutombo or Hakeem.
Quotatious wrote: Bastillon is Hakeem. Combines style and substance.
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#53 » by bastillon » Tue Sep 15, 2015 10:00 pm

eminence wrote:You massively underrate the Martin/Collins defensive pairing, solidly the second best defensive group there. And Karl Malone really ate Duncan up in 03-04, to the tune of 10/8 a game on 44% from the field… You've got yourself a pretty obvious Hakeem agenda here (Duncan no leadership…) and it's really not worth talking about any more.


As team defenders, yes. As post defenders, no. Particularly Kenyon Martin is an average post defender and he was the one guarding Duncan those entire finals. Cliff Robinson was great post defender, one of the best ever. Go look up how he performed against top PFs in the playoffs. Karl Malone vs. Kenyon, that's not even close. Go look at how Duncan performed in 03 finals and then 04 WCFs. Meanwhile Spencer - primary defender vs. Olajuwon in the 94 WCF - was a Perkins on steroids. The only reason why he played in the NBA was his post defense. Karl Malone at the time was Utah's 2nd best post defender, which seems silly but that's what it was. Buck Williams was nothing special actually, so you may argue that overall Nets were maybe better than Blazers, like I said before.

But you are missing the point here. Whether you move up Nets duo couple spots higher, that still leaves atrocious defense of Amare, Najera, Horry/Medvedenko. You can't argue that those guys were any good. That is the difference. You can't just take into account team defensive rating because Duncan was being guarded by perimeter defense. You have to break down those defenses. Lazy analysis like that won't get you very far.

Nobody gives a damn about Duncan feasting on poor defenses. He simply did not perform at the same level against top competition. The reality is that Duncan lucked out into playing mediocre teams in 03 playoffs with mostly horrendous defensive frontlines. It was by no means better than Williams, Spencer, Malone, Ewing, Oakley and Mason. No freakin way.
Quotatious wrote: Bastillon is Hakeem. Combines style and substance.
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#54 » by mischievous » Tue Sep 15, 2015 10:36 pm

I'll throw in my quick vote before time runs out:

Ballot 1: 94: Hakeem, great 2-way player, led his team to the title

Quick stats:

Regular season: 27.3/11.9/3.6 56.5 ts% 25.3 PER

Playoffs: 28.9/11/4.3 56.8 ts% 27.7 PER

I like Hakeem over Duncan simply due to his superior scoring. Duncan is a better rebounder, but i don't think he has any clear advantage in passing or defense.

Ballot 2: 2003 Tim Duncan 23.3/12.9/3.9 56.4 ts% 26.9 PER, elite defensive anchor

Clearly upped his game in the playoffs in route to a title:

24.7.15.4/5.3 57.7 ts% 28.4 PER

Ballot 3: Undecided even though I'm leaning Magic Johnson.
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#55 » by bastillon » Tue Sep 15, 2015 11:11 pm

mischievous wrote:Ballot 2: 2003 Tim Duncan 23.3/12.9/3.9 56.4 ts% 26.9 PER, elite defensive anchor

Clearly upped his game in the playoffs in route to a title:

24.7.15.4/5.3 57.7 ts% 28.4 PER

Ballot 3: Undecided even though I'm leaning Magic Johnson.


That probably has something to do with his opposition:
1st Round - Amare
2nd Round - Horry/Medvedenko
WCF - Najera/LaFrentz
Finals - Kenyon Martin

It's not that difficult to up your game under those circumstances. That being said, Duncan had a great season in 03, but he was better across the board in 02. More athletic, better defense, better jumpshot (look at his FT% that year - career high 80%). Common misunderstanding about Duncan is that 03 was his peak year because he led the team to the title which he couldn't have done earlier.

Duncan wouldn't have led Spurs anywhere in 03 either, if not for the massive injury spree across the league ... here are some names of injured players in 03 playoffs: Dirk, Kobe, Webber, Billups. There were four major contenders that year: Kings who were at the time by far the favorites to win the title, defending champs Lakers, massively talented Mavs and Spurs who had been getting wrecked by Kobe the last couple years. All three teams had their top players getting injured during the postseason. Kobe had a shoulder injury and was ineffective shooting the ball, Dirk and C-Webb were out. Webber-less Kings were taken out by healthy Mavs, who were beaten by the Spurs after losing Dirk to injury.

More: my post from few years ago
Spoiler:
bastillon wrote:
bastillon wrote:meanwhile, Duncan was leading the most talented supporting cast out of any teams. yes, they weren't very good offensively, but they were dependable. no, they weren't bad supporting cast, actually they were best teammates defensively any leader has ever had. young Manu Ginobili, Bruce Bowen in his prime, old David Robinson, young Stephen Jackson... I mean there aren't many teams even comparable to these guys defensively, much less better.

let's see other teams from 2003...
-Sacramento was the consensus pick for the title. they lost to the Lakers in 7 games the year earlier and made some great moves in the offseason which would supposedly put them over the top. Chris Webber got injured in the playoffs and they lost. although it's worth noting they made it to game 7 vs healthy Mavs so even without Webber, they were still a great team.

-Blazers were a very good team. they had great talent, but I think we all remember Sheed-era in Portland. they weren't as good as for example in 2000, but still, they could be dangerous threat to the Spurs... unless healthy Mavs wouldn't have beaten them first(in 7 games).

-Dallas was the best team according to stats. throughout 2002-2003 campaign they posted efficiency differential(ORtg-DRtg) which was the best in the league. to see how great they performed in this metric, let's check out other contenders.

Code: Select all

             ED
Mavs        8.4
Kings       6.8
Spurs       5.9
Nets        5.7
Pistons     4.2
Pacers      3.8
Blazers     2.9
Jazz        2.7
76ers       2.5
Lakers      2.5
Hornets     2.3
Wolves      2.3


ED = efficiency differential

as one can see, Dallas led the league by a pretty decent margin and Spurs were 'only' 3rd. it's worth noting that ED in the east was inflated because of terrible teams back then. so if we focused on stats, they predicted Dallas to win a title that year... but Nowitzki, who is typically an iron man, got injured in western finals vs Spurs and after losing him, it wasn't the same.

one could argue that Dallas also had Nash, but their management didn't acknowledge how great player he was and Finley was the focus of their offense after Nowitzki went down. they made the same mistake in 2004 offseason when they decided not to re-sign him and playing bigger role, he went on to be almost three-time MVP and torched the Mavericks in 2005 playoffs with 30/12/6.

anyway, the point is that Nowitzki went down and Dallas decided that Finley will carry them. Spurs won 4-2. to make the situation easier for San Antonio, they beat two very good teams before Nowitzki injured himself - Portland and Kings, both capable of competing with Spurs.

-the Lakers were quite a good team, too. ED underappreciated them, because Shaq was injured and out of shape for like half of the season and once they made it to the ASG, they were rolling. 26-9 after ASG showed it was a very good team...

Kobe injured his shoulder in 2003 first round against the Wolves and although he played a great series against Minnesota(having as bad defenders as Wally and Peeler on him helped), he couldn't flat out dominate the Spurs like he did previous years. Kobe averaged 32/5/3.7 that year but he shot only 43% and commited 4.5 TOs a game. Shaq played great with 25/14, too, but the Lakers had absolutely no help from other players. Rick Fox wasn't even playing, injured himself vs Wolves IIRC, George was playing through enormous pain and couldn't contribute to the team. with both Fox and George injured, there was nobody to play SF. Horry was playing terribly in that series. shot 26% from the field and didn't make one single three. Fisher was the only bright side for LA, as he had hot hand and shot 61.5% from 3s. the point is that Lakers had no depth whatsoever and with injuries bothering couple of players, they couldn't compete with the best teams.

actually they almost lost to Wolves in the first round. KG beat them almost by himself. Wolves were leading 2-1 in the series and KG publicly stated they'll win game 4. Wolves were leading in the 3rd qrt, but LA stormed back and won the game. but... Timberwolves were a pretty bad team to contend for a title and LA had trouble beating them.

-to give you an idea how bad were the Wolves, check out their team. apart from KG there was Troy Hudson, Szczerbiak, Gill, Peeler, Rasho and some Joe Smiths and Gary Trents on the bench. so after injuries to key Lakers players, they were no longer able to contend for a title. they downgraded to 'KG with bunch of scrubs' type of team in terms of winning a title, really Wolves were close to Lakers that year... okay, maybe not that close, because LA won every time they had to, but still... it's a team where 2nd and 3rd best players were guys like Wally and Hudson. one is a solid bench player who could provide scoring with the 2nd unit(Wally) the other is just a scrub, bad PG, terrible defender, though pretty good as a shooter. they shouldn't be anywhere near starting on contender, much less playing significant roles there.

-you had also teams like Utah with 40-y-old leaders, Sacto beat them in 5, and Marbury's Suns. Phoenix shouldn't be able to compete with the team who won a title that year, but Spurs had some trouble eliminating them. I mean they made it to game 6 despite pretty much noone who could play any kind of post defense. it really shows how "powerful" Spurs were - 6 game series with a team led by Marbury(who is a TERRIBLE playoff performer).

-in the east situation was even more pathetic, I'd say way more pathetic. you had a team like Hornets who were considered as finals candidate. this team consisted of Baron Davis, Jamal Mashburn, PJ Brown, Jamaal Magloire, George Lynch and David Wesley(the guy who is known on YouTube as "the worst lay-up ever", check it out btw). couple of solid role players led by Baron and Mashburn. such a team would have a hard time making the playoffs today. they were considered as finals candidate. ended up losing in 6 to another 'finals candidate', 76ers.

-Philly was a good team. having Iverson as the guy who is supposed to lead them somewhere didn't help, that's for sure, but they were still a good team. not 2001-good, because Mutombo was gone, so was their elite defense and title aspirations, but still. besides AI, they had 35-y-old Coleman, Van Horn and those role players from their 2001 squad - Snow, McKie, Hill. similar to Hornets, trouble making the playoffs today, very unlikely to win any round if getting there. ended up losing to injured Pistons with Chucky Atkins eliminating them in some crucial game IIRC.

-Indiana was a great team... in that watered down, historically weak east. obviously they had Miller, JO, Artest and Tinsley, but in the playoffs noone was playing well outside of JO and Artest. Reggie shot 28%, Harrington 21%, Mercer 33%... Celtics upset them in the 2nd round.

-then you had the Pistons. they were a surprise that year. everyone expected them to regress after the Stackhouse trade but with Billups, Hamilton and Ben Wallace, they were a pretty solid group of players. as you can see in the chart above, Pistons were 5th in the league in ED. what this chart doesn't show is that Billups was injured in most of the playoffs and he was one of two guys capable of scoring in high volumes for this team. Billups had a sprained ankle and although he was playing after missing only couple of games, he wasn't nearly as effective as they would've liked him to be.

Image

so without Billups, Pistons had to use Chucky Atkins for long stretches and Hamilton was their only option offensively. when they lost to Nets, Rip was playing as well as ever with 22 PPG, 47% and defense all over him all game long. Pistons just didn't have anyone outside of him. without Billups, they weren't even playoff team. lost by sweep to NJN.

-finally, there were NJN. Nets weren't a great team, but in this historically weak east, they could play pretty well. they beat Bucks 4-2 and then swept all of the rest in the east, but eventually were exposed with lack of half-court offense in the finals against the Spurs. Jason Kidd isn't the best offensive anchor you'd like to have. he's a non scorer and was forced to take a lot of shots and with his poor J, he also missed a lot of them(Iversonesque efficiency). Nets were in the finals ONLY because all other teams flat out sucked. Pistons were gone with Chauncey's ankle, Celtics were poor even when healthy, Indiana had terrible offense with Reggie and co. struggling and so on. most of these teams from 2003 east wouldn't make the playoffs today and most likely would've been a top lottery candidates. that east was so pathetic that Pistons made ECF with Atkins-Hamilton-Curry-C.Robinson(1.5 RPG in ECF as a PF)-Ben.

so, according to ED, Spurs main rivals were Dallas(injured Nowitzki), Kings(eliminated by healthy Mavs, injured Webber), Nets(40-45W team with normal competition, in the finals because of even worse teams on their way), Lakers(injured Kobe and George, Fox not playing, Horry off year, barely beat Wolves who were terrible outside of KG). some of these teams didn't stand in their way, some of them were injured by the time they played, some of them were just poor.

they beat
Suns 4-2
Lakers 4-2
Dallas 4-2
Nets 4-2

the way they were playing in those playoffs, considering all circumstances(competition, injuries and such), I'd say Phoenix was 40W team, LA 50W, Dallas 45-50W, Nets 45W in terms of real value. that's what Spurs faced on route to their titles.

the general conclusion coming from this post is that 2003 was a year of injuries(affected a bit Kobe, but Webber, Nowitzki, Billups and some other players were done). competition was poor in general but east was just pathetic. you have to remember that when judging Duncan's title or Kidd's finals from that year. I don't think most of these teams I described, would stay competitive with the best teams of today's league, much less winning some series in the playoffs...
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#56 » by trex_8063 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 11:39 pm

drza wrote:I'd like to see some more conversation, and about more players,


I hear ya', and I sincerely appreciate all your contributions to the discussion/debate aspect. I hope I actually get a chance to read it all.
I personally apologize for not being more present the last couple days. Other obligations relating to being husband, father, professional, and other domesticity-type responsibilities have pulled me away. I'll quote a bunch here to see if we can get some absentees back to the fold, so to speak....

GoldenFrieza21 wrote:.
Moonbeam wrote:.
Narigo wrote:.
Mutnt wrote:.
Gregoire wrote:.
NyCeEVO wrote:.
PaulieWal wrote:.


I'll follow up with some general rambling thoughts, as well as a few more specific ones shortly....
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#57 » by eminence » Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:13 am

Last info I have to present on Duncan's vs Hakeems playoff runs. 93-94 vs 02-03

Showed team defenses of the teams they played were very close to even in an earlier post, so here we'll look at individuals. Primary positional matchup for each player, will be looking at their regular season defensive numbers to show what kind of defender they were that year.

1st round:
Hakeem: 34 ppg @ 56.2 TS%, 11 rpg, 4.8 apg
vs. Clifford Robinson: 0.6 DBPM, 0.062 dWS/48, 104 drating

Duncan: 18.7 ppg @ 58.4 TS%, 16 rpg, 5.2 apg
vs. Amare: -1.6 DBPM, 0.037 dWS/48, 101 drating

2nd round:
Hakeem: 28.7 ppg @ 58.2 TS%, 13.6 rpg, 4.6 apg
vs. Miller: 4.9 DBPM, 0.083 dWS/48, 101 drating

Duncan: 28 ppg @ 57.5 TS%, 11.8 rpg, 4.8 apg
vs. Horry: 1.8 DBPM, 0.051 dws/48, 103 drating

WCF: Dirk went out after game 3(SAS up 2-1), so including him and Najera
Hakeem: 27.8 ppg @ 56.9 TS%, 10.2 rpg, 4.4 apg
vs. Spencer: 0.9 DBPM, 0.070 dws/48, 103 drating

Duncan: 28.0 ppg @ 60.3 TS%, 16.7 rpg, 5.8 apg
vs. Dirk: 1.0 DBPM, 0.082 dws/48, 98 drating
and Najera: 1.6 DBPM, 0.057 dws/48, 102 drating

Finals:
Hakeem: 26.9 ppg @ 55.6 TS%, 9.1 rpg, 3.6 apg
vs. Ewing: 3.9 DBPM, .129 dWS/48, 93 drating

Duncan: 24.2 ppg @ 54.6 TS%, 17.0 rpg, 5.3 apg
vs Martin: 2.0 DBPM, 0.097 dWS/48, 96 drating
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#58 » by urnoggin » Wed Sep 16, 2015 1:19 am

1st ballot: 94’ Hakeem Olajuwon
2nd ballot: 03’ Tim Duncan
3rd ballot: 86’ Larry Bird


Already explained Hakeem and Duncan. As for Bird, he led one of the best teams ever to a 67-15 record and a championship (after going 15-3 in the playoffs). Had a great supporting cast (McHale, Parish, Walton, DJ, Ainge) but was the unquestionable leader of the team. Averaged 26/10/7 in the RS on 49.6/42.3/89.6 shooting (58.0 TS%) while playing all 82 games. All advanced stats point to Bird having outstanding impact while on the court (0.244 WS/48, 9.1 BPM, 8.7 VORP). Was even a statistically superb defender (99 DRtg, 2.8 DBPM) even though his man to man defense might have been lacking. In the playoffs, Bird had 4 great/very good series (28/8/8 on 64.2 TS% vs Bulls, 27/10/6 on 59.9 TS% vs Hawks, 25/10/8 on 67.1 TS% vs Bucks, 24/9.7/9.5 on 57.8 TS% vs Rockets). More importantly, Bird was very dependable and consistent with his production in his playoffs. In the Finals, when his efficiency took a slight dip, his team took 2 losses in the series (more losses than the rest of the playoffs combines). Again, this shows how impactful Bird was regardless of his elite supporting cast.
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#59 » by bastillon » Wed Sep 16, 2015 1:42 am

eminence wrote:Last info I have to present on Duncan's vs Hakeems playoff runs. 93-94 vs 02-03

Showed team defenses of the teams they played were very close to even in an earlier post, so here we'll look at individuals. Primary positional matchup for each player, will be looking at their regular season defensive numbers to show what kind of defender they were that year.

1st round:
Hakeem: 34 ppg @ 56.2 TS%, 11 rpg, 4.8 apg
vs. Clifford Robinson: 0.6 DBPM, 0.062 dWS/48, 104 drating

Duncan: 18.7 ppg @ 58.4 TS%, 16 rpg, 5.2 apg
vs. Amare: -1.6 DBPM, 0.037 dWS/48, 101 drating

2nd round:
Hakeem: 28.7 ppg @ 58.2 TS%, 13.6 rpg, 4.6 apg
vs. Miller: 4.9 DBPM, 0.083 dWS/48, 101 drating

Duncan: 28 ppg @ 57.5 TS%, 11.8 rpg, 4.8 apg
vs. Horry: 1.8 DBPM, 0.051 dws/48, 103 drating

WCF: Dirk went out after game 3(SAS up 2-1), so including him and Najera
Hakeem: 27.8 ppg @ 56.9 TS%, 10.2 rpg, 4.4 apg
vs. Spencer: 0.9 DBPM, 0.070 dws/48, 103 drating

Duncan: 28.0 ppg @ 60.3 TS%, 16.7 rpg, 5.8 apg
vs. Dirk: 1.0 DBPM, 0.082 dws/48, 98 drating
and Najera: 1.6 DBPM, 0.057 dws/48, 102 drating

Finals:
Hakeem: 26.9 ppg @ 55.6 TS%, 9.1 rpg, 3.6 apg
vs. Ewing: 3.9 DBPM, .129 dWS/48, 93 drating

Duncan: 24.2 ppg @ 54.6 TS%, 17.0 rpg, 5.3 apg
vs Martin: 2.0 DBPM, 0.097 dWS/48, 96 drating


You are looking at boxscore stats to judge individual defense. Putting it mildly, that's not right. Those numbers do not show their individual defense. If you want stats at all costs, you'd have to look at the production of their opponents. Those boxscore stats you mentioned are a combination of steals/blocks/defensive rebounds and team defensive rating. Boxscore stats are known to be misleading when it comes to individual defense.

In reality though: Amare, Najera/LaFrentz, Horry/Medvedenko are all terrible post defenders. They were getting torched by everyone during their careers. Kenyon is decent, but by no means a shutdown post defender.

Spencer, Malone, Buck Williams, Cliff Robinson, Mason, Oakley and Ewing... are not comparable to the guys I just mentioned. Clearly you haven't watched these guys in action since you compared them (my examples were to show you how absurd the difference was, so if you didn't catch that, that means you haven't seen them play).

Duncan's 03 playoff run was as easy as it gets. He faced three depleted defensive frontlines and then Kenyon Martin in the finals. I doubt anybody had an easier run (among championship winning bigs). Even Shaq played Sabonis/Sheed or Duncan/D-Rob every year of the 3-peat. It's kinda interesting actually, seems like Duncan's postseason numbers are extremely inflated that year.

As a side note: you people are relying too much on raw stats and not enough on context (opposition, injuries, team structure etc.). Duncan was simply a significantly worse player in 03 than in 02. There is over 10% FT difference between them. That meant 02 Duncan was a prolific scorer with high efficiency because of his FT shooting, while 03 Duncan was his usual self, which is a below average FT shooter. Also, Duncan's athleticism and defense were better in 02, just watching him play he looks a lot more agile, moves around better etc. Even raw stats favor 02 Duncan. The only reason anyone even considers 03 Duncan over 02 Duncan is because of the title. But that wasn't because of Duncan's improvement but the injuries to 3 other major contenders - Lakers, Mavs and Kings were all screwed over and all of them were favorites over the Spurs to win a title that year. Actually at the time Kings were the heavy favorites to win a title. Just because Spurs lucked out to have a walk in the park in the playoffs does not mean that Duncan made an improvement.
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Re: Peaks project #6 

Post#60 » by SideshowBob » Wed Sep 16, 2015 2:02 am

bastillon wrote:As a side note: you people are relying too much on raw stats and not enough on context (opposition, injuries, team structure etc.). Duncan was simply a significantly worse player in 03 than in 02. There is over 10% FT difference between them. That meant 02 Duncan was a prolific scorer with high efficiency because of his FT shooting, while 03 Duncan was his usual self, which is a below average FT shooter. Also, Duncan's athleticism and defense were better in 02, just watching him play he looks a lot more agile, moves around better etc. Even raw stats favor 02 Duncan. The only reason anyone even considers 03 Duncan over 02 Duncan is because of the title. But that wasn't because of Duncan's improvement but the injuries to 3 other major contenders - Lakers, Mavs and Kings were all screwed over and all of them were favorites over the Spurs to win a title that year. Actually at the time Kings were the heavy favorites to win a title. Just because Spurs lucked out to have a walk in the park in the playoffs does not mean that Duncan made an improvement.


Yeah this sums up my thoughts on Duncan as well (I have and will continue to be voting for 02). I'm guessing you also think Garnett was probably also better than Duncan in 03, if not the same.
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