gustofwind wrote:
1) Injuries/Illness: Cousins only player 59 games last year. Given that he is very far and away their best player, that absence proved very significant. Collison also played very well last year, but was only able to play in 45 games.
2) Coaching: Last year the team juggled three coaches. The Kings are set to start the year with a proven veteran coach.
3) Additions: Kings fans are enthusiastic about the new additions to the team. Koufos, Belinelli, WCS as well as a myriad of x factor players ranging from household names (Rondo) to relative unknowns (Curry) will bring needed depth the team has sorely missed for years. Butler is also known as a great locker room leader. During their heyday in the early 00's, Kings were a great team due to depth, not a reliance on 3-4 players.
4) Experience: The Jazz are certainly an intriguing young team, but they are still developing. The Kings, on the other hand, have numerous players entering their primes, and have made several veteran additions with playoff experience.
Certainly you have every right to disagree, but your tone is unnecessarily disrespectful. I believe in a forum like RealGM, where different viewpoints are welcome and nothing is at stake, respecting the opinions of others is as important than defending your own opinion effectively.
I wasn't trying to be disrespectful, but it's always funner when arguments have a little teeth in them
I appreciate that you actually addressed my points, unlike many of your compatriots. Kudos for that.
I'll respond briefly below:
1) Every team has injuries. Cousins is the only one who's absence was particularly painful, though Collison hurt as well. I don't see last season's team being particularly beset by them. You will have players go down this year and it will hurt your team. The only real argument here is that the timing of DMC's injury was particularly bad as the team was off to a solid start and his absence led to Malone's firing which sort of derailed the season. Still, there's no proof that all those things wouldn't have happened anyway and the Kings were largely the same team they had been the 3 years previous.
2) This is the simplest and best point. Karl could be an upgrade and if a turn around DOES happen, it will largely be due to his influence. Still, he is obviously not on the same page as Cousins (at least from what we've seen) and he does not have a team that fits the style he likes to play. We'll see, but this is the most valid reason to believe.
3) Koufos, Belinelli and WCS are supposed to transform them from a 29 win team to a playoff team? I like the moves and they could help, but there isn't a headline move that should really take them up a level. WCS is a rookie. He can't be counted on for much this year. These are the types of marginal moves that a team makes to go from 56 to 59 wins. If you're trying to go from 29 to 40, it takes something more substantial.
4) This one is the hardest to buy. Every team has bottom-of-the-roster guys who have been around and experienced high stakes basketball on successful teams. It's a nice story when a team makes the leap, how the veterans really mentored the young players and blah blah blah, but it's really just window dressing. What matters is your best players, the core of the team. If you're looking at the core of the Kings team, it is a Cousins/Gay foundation with a supporting cast of Collison and maybe McLemore. There is a possibility that one or more of the WCS, Bellinelli, and Koufous might join them this year if they are able to bear a larger load than they did at previous stops. Cousins has never played in a playoff game. Gay (7 career playoff games) has proven to be a net negative on the teams he has played on as evidenced by their getting better after he left. Those are your top two players and they are no more veteran than the Jazz' best players. Rondo is a possible X-factor but he has been so toxic lately that he was essentially sent home during the playoffs last year for his behavior. Until he proves otherwise, that's who he is. The core of this team is not a "proven" or "experienced" group of guys. Hard to argue otherwise.
None of this is to say that it's impossible that the Kings could leap forward this year. The 13-14 Suns were a team that no one expected anything from who vastly out performed expectations. It happens. But the case for the Kings is not a strong one. The baseline of expectancy, derived from last year's team, is weak and the improvements added to it aren't compelling either. At least not compared to the Jazz, who did much more last year and have probably improved more upon that baseline as well. Just can't see how this is a real argument.
