Otto Porter Part 2

[Higga]

A new big 3 is being born

[nate33]

Keep going Otto...

http://tinyurl.com/nbdjn6q

And I kinda feel like most of the guys ahead of him on that list deserve asterisks. Dedmon and Ezili are 26 years old and both play center (which tends to make it easier to rack up win shares because they're heavily dependent on rebounding).

Burke is shooting at a percentage way out of line with his last 2 seasons. His TS% in his first three seasons are .473, .455, and .578 respectively. I suspect we will see some regression to the mean.

Also, Porter ranks 2nd overall in VORP and OBPM. Among the third year players age 24 and younger, Porter really seems to be the second best player behind only Gobert.

I really think Porter is going to pan out to be better than Beal. I'd really like to see Porter in a primary ball-handler role from time to time. There really is a bit of Scottie Pippen in the way he plays. He's run some real nice pick-and-rolls lately.

[nuposse04]

Keep going Otto...

http://tinyurl.com/nbdjn6q

And I kinda feel like most of the guys ahead of him on that list deserve asterisks. Dedmon and Ezili are 26 years old and both play center (which tends to make it easier to rack up win shares because they're heavily dependent on rebounding).

Burke is shooting at a percentage way out of line with his last 2 seasons. His TS% in his first three seasons are .473, .455, and .578 respectively. I suspect we will see some regression to the mean.

Also, Porter ranks 2nd overall in VORP and OBPM. Among the third year players age 24 and younger, Porter really seems to be the second best player behind only Gobert.

I really think Porter is going to pan out to be better than Beal. I'd really like to see Porter in a primary ball-handler role from time to time. There really is a bit of Scottie Pippen in the way he plays. He's run some real nice pick-and-rolls lately.

It is very encouraging actually. Beal's injury aside, sans the TOs he has been everything we could have asked for. Wall isn't shooting as well as he has in the past two seasons and Nor is Porter from the perimeter. I suspect all three will hit their stride eventually, and when they do we may have a very dominate 1-3 group.

As many note, Porter doesn't let a bad shooting night keep him from contributing, though I would like to see him be a bit more consistent with his rebounding but seeing as how he is stuck guarding opposing teams "better" perimeter players maybe that is asking a bit much.

Now if Porter could only get some respect from the refs...

[Illmatic12]

I'm not so sure Porter will be better than Beal.. keep in mind BB is only 22yo as well, already displaying the type of shooting ability that can contort defenses. That's extremely valuable.

However.. from that 2013 draft, I think Otto should end up at worst top 4( Gobert was the surprise, he's the #1. Then some combination of Giannis, Porter, Noel)

Wouldn't trade OP for anyone else taken in the lottery, including Oladipo.

[nate33]

I'm not so sure Porter will be better than Beal.. keep in mind BB is only 22yo as well, already displaying the type of shooting ability that can contort defenses. That's extremely valuable.

However.. from that 2013 draft, I think Otto should end up at worst top 4( Gobert was the surprise, he's the #1. Then some combination of Giannis, Porter, Noel)

Wouldn't trade OP for anyone else taken in the lottery, including Oladipo.

Beal worries me because of his low FT rate and mediocre 2P%. If his shot isn't on, he just doesn't do all that much to help the team. Even this year, with him shooting lights out from 3-point range, he has an ORtg of just 102 and a WS/48 lower than his career average.

Beal's VORP, WS/48 and ORtg are all lower than Porter. His PER is only slightly higher - and that's with Beal shooting at what is likely to be an unsustainable rate from 3-point range while Porter is shooting way worse than he shot in the preseason or last playoffs. And Beal is in his 4th season after starting for 3 years. Otto effectively redshirted his first year so he's really in his second season (and it's the first season that he has been a regular starter).

[Illmatic12]

..

[DCZards]

Beal worries me because of his low FT rate and mediocre 2P% rate. If his shot isn't on, he just doesn't do all that much to help the team. Even this year, with him shooting lights out from 3-point range, he has an ORtg of just 102 and a WS/48 lower than his career average.

Beal's VORP, WS/48 and ORtg are all lower than Porter. His PER is only slightly higher - and that's with Beal shooting at what is likely to be an unsustainable rate from 3-point range while Porter is shooting way worse than he shot in the preseason or last playoffs. And Beal is in his 4th season after starting for 3 years. Otto effectively redshirted his first year so he's really in his second season (and it's the first season that he has been a regular starter).

I understand what the stats say…but I'm not worried about Beal. He's a baller with commitment. He works on his game and is getting better. Step back 3 to beat SA. He’s been working on that. He's also attacking the basket more so his FT rate will go up.

This season we’re going to see a dramatic increase in the 3 pters BB takes. He’ll shine in that role.

Plus, the 22 yo has already proven he’s prime time under the bright lights of the playoffs.

Health may be an issue with BB. But talent is not. He’ll be an all-star someday soon.

As for who’s better Otto or Beal…don’t really care, just love that we have them both...and would like to keep it that way.

[tontoz]

I like the way Porter has been playing but I would like to see more consistent rebounding. His jumper has also been pretty mediocre so far.

[nuposse04]

I like the way Porter has been playing but I would like to see more consistent rebounding. His jumper has also been pretty mediocre so far.

Agreed on rebounding, but sans his 3 pt shot, his mid range jumper is insanely good to start the season. From 10-16 ft he is shooting 67% and 16-3 pt he is shooting 59%. Those ranges have to come down eventually, but hopefully they'll be offset by improved 3pt shooting.

[Illmatic12]

Otto could also consistently draw a lot of FTs , the team should be in his ear about this.

He won't always beat his defender off the dribble straight up. But if you notice whenever he catches the ball on the weakside and slashes towards the hoop, he can either get all the way to the rim or someone will foul him. He's just so lanky that it makes him an easy target to foul .

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm not so sure Porter will be better than Beal.. keep in mind BB is only 22yo as well, already displaying the type of shooting ability that can contort defenses. That's extremely valuable.

However.. from that 2013 draft, I think Otto should end up at worst top 4( Gobert was the surprise, he's the #1. Then some combination of Giannis, Porter, Noel)

Wouldn't trade OP for anyone else taken in the lottery, including Oladipo.

Beal worries me because of his low FT rate and mediocre 2P%. If his shot isn't on, he just doesn't do all that much to help the team. Even this year, with him shooting lights out from 3-point range, he has an ORtg of just 102 and a WS/48 lower than his career average.

Beal's VORP, WS/48 and ORtg are all lower than Porter. His PER is only slightly higher - and that's with Beal shooting at what is likely to be an unsustainable rate from 3-point range while Porter is shooting way worse than he shot in the preseason or last playoffs. And Beal is in his 4th season after starting for 3 years. Otto effectively redshirted his first year so he's really in his second season (and it's the first season that he has been a regular starter).

Beal has me thinking of players like Jordan Adams and Devin Booker and trade ideas if Bradley wants Fort Knox.

How much better...err, worse would the Wizards be with Will Barton at SG than they've been doing with Beal?

Remember how Eddie Jordan got the numbers of both Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison sky high? That might not have to do with Besl getting too much credit, similarly, but I wonder about points scored being the all that stat.

Beal is real solid defensively. But he's not a superstar in my opinion.

The other names I've intentionally dropped might be just as good in similar conditions as Beal.

Garrett Temple is cool for a few games and the most part in Beal's place. Gary Neal is clearly a drop off


"Trade down and draft Demarcus Cousins plus a pick" 2010
"Kirk Cousins will be a starting QB" (even over Griffin) 2012
Dejuan Blair is as good as ever. 2015

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Beal worries me because of his low FT rate and mediocre 2P% rate. If his shot isn't on, he just doesn't do all that much to help the team. Even this year, with him shooting lights out from 3-point range, he has an ORtg of just 102 and a WS/48 lower than his career average.

Beal's VORP, WS/48 and ORtg are all lower than Porter. His PER is only slightly higher - and that's with Beal shooting at what is likely to be an unsustainable rate from 3-point range while Porter is shooting way worse than he shot in the preseason or last playoffs. And Beal is in his 4th season after starting for 3 years. Otto effectively redshirted his first year so he's really in his second season (and it's the first season that he has been a regular starter).

I understand what the stats say…but I'm not worried about Beal. He's a baller with commitment. He works on his game and is getting better. Step back 3 to beat SA. He’s been working on that. He's also attacking the basket more so his FT rate will go up.

This season we’re going to see a dramatic increase in the 3 pters BB takes. He’ll shine in that role.

Plus, the 22 yo has already proven he’s prime time under the bright lights of the playoffs.

Health may be an issue with BB. But talent is not. He’ll be an all-star someday soon.

As for who’s better Otto or Beal…don’t really care, just love that we have them both...and would like to keep it that way.

I don't care, either.

I want Beal long term at the right price. Beal IS VERY CLUTCH at 22 years old. Great kid from IMO a great family. Real good energy from him -- he's full of praise seemingly all the time. BB is A Rare high quality human being IMO. With Porter and Oubre BB is a good one as teammate. BB is like a brother to John Wall.

In an era where threes matter, Beal is really valuable.

(However, there's a metric ton of talented SGs in the up and coming ranks. Judge wisely what Beal is worth.)



"Trade down and draft Demarcus Cousins plus a pick" 2010
"Kirk Cousins will be a starting QB" (even over Griffin) 2012
Dejuan Blair is as good as ever. 2015

[fishercob]

From last night's gamer on Philly's 1000th straight loss:

"Nerlens Noel finished with just 2 points and 3 rebounds in 23 minutes of action. He did not register a block, steal, or assist in the game, the first time that's happened in his 85 game NBA career.

After the game head coach Brett Brown said Noel was playing through some tendinitis in his knee and that the injured wrist he suffered earlier in the season was bothering. Brown opted to sit Noel the entire 4th quarter to rest his various ailments."

Really glad we picked Otto.

Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/news/2015/11/18/immediate-reaction-76ers-embarrassed-by-pacers/#XCJXulVPvbDZqKyi.99

[nate33]

From last night's gamer on Philly's 1000th straight loss:

"Nerlens Noel finished with just 2 points and 3 rebounds in 23 minutes of action. He did not register a block, steal, or assist in the game, the first time that's happened in his 85 game NBA career.

After the game head coach Brett Brown said Noel was playing through some tendinitis in his knee and that the injured wrist he suffered earlier in the season was bothering. Brown opted to sit Noel the entire 4th quarter to rest his various ailments."

Really glad we picked Otto.

Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/news/2015/11/18/immediate-reaction-76ers-embarrassed-by-pacers/#XCJXulVPvbDZqKyi.99

Yeah, I bashed the Porter-over-Noel decision relentlessly. I really thought it was a mistake. And up until the playoffs last season, it really did seem to be a mistake. But I may have to eat a huge serving of crow on this. Porter really looks like he's going to pan out to be a much better player. Porter is guaranteed to be an average starter at his position (he already is) and he is highly likely to be an above-average starter and maybe even an All Star. I'm not sure we can say that about Noel. Noel is still a man without a position - too small to be a full time center and not skilled enough to be a PF. And he is also not very durable.

The jury is still out though. Noel still does have tremendous potential. He's a year younger than Porter, and he only has one season under his belt. And during the season last year, he was a real difference maker on defense. We'll just have to see if he can bulk up a bit more, and develop a serviceable jumper.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

From last night's gamer on Philly's 1000th straight loss:

"Nerlens Noel finished with just 2 points and 3 rebounds in 23 minutes of action. He did not register a block, steal, or assist in the game, the first time that's happened in his 85 game NBA career.

After the game head coach Brett Brown said Noel was playing through some tendinitis in his knee and that the injured wrist he suffered earlier in the season was bothering. Brown opted to sit Noel the entire 4th quarter to rest his various ailments."

Really glad we picked Otto.

Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/news/2015/11/18/immediate-reaction-76ers-embarrassed-by-pacers/#XCJXulVPvbDZqKyi.99

Glad Noel could be smart enough to get himself traded.


John Wall or Demarcus Cousins+Derrick Favors?

Five years it takes at to be correctly understood.

[Ruzious]

Is there a site that gives you stats by quarter? I mentioned it before, and my impression is that it continues to be an issue with Otto - He seems to completely disappear on the offensive end by the 4th quarter of each game I've paid attention to.

[fishercob]

Is there a site that gives you stats by quarter? I mentioned it before, and my impression is that it continues to be an issue with Otto - He seems to completely disappear on the offensive end by the 4th quarter of each game I've paid attention to.

Check out the gameflows at popcorn-machine.net

[nate33]

Is there a site that gives you stats by quarter? I mentioned it before, and my impression is that it continues to be an issue with Otto - He seems to completely disappear on the offensive end by the 4th quarter of each game I've paid attention to.

Here's the best I could do from basketballreference:

Through 3 quarters:


Fourth quarter:


Your impression appears to be right. He shoots far less in the 4th quarter, with less accuracy. To be fair, he often plays the entire 3rd and therefore rests for nearly half of the 4th quarter. Some of this disparity is therefore due to minutes played. My guess is that he averages about 7 4th quarter minutes a game, versus 26 minutes per game in the first 3 quarters. One would expect his production in the first 3 quarters to be about 4 times the volume of his 4th quarter production.

[JAR69]

NBA.com allow you to run stats by quarter: http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/203490/stats/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season.

Click on the gear in the upper right hand corner, and there is a drop-down menu for quarters. I don't have time to review, but one thing I noticed is that despite his bad shooting #s, his on/off seemed to be best in the 4th.

[dobrojim]

Is there a site that gives you stats by quarter? I mentioned it before, and my impression is that it continues to be an issue with Otto - He seems to completely disappear on the offensive end by the 4th quarter of each game I've paid attention to.

Here's the best I could do from basketballreference:

Through 3 quarters:


Fourth quarter:


Your impression appears to be right. He shoots far less in the 4th quarter, with less accuracy. To be fair, he often plays the entire 3rd and therefore rests for nearly half of the 4th quarter. Some of this disparity is therefore due to minutes played. My guess is that he averages about 7 4th quarter minutes a game, versus 26 minutes per game in the first 3 quarters. One would expect his production in the first 3 quarters to be about 4 times the volume of his 4th quarter production.

He is also the 'new kid on the block' and may be deferring in some cases or simply not
getting his number called by the coaching staff in other cases.