Is Wall Top 5 PG?

dckingsfan · Post #561 » by **dckingsfan** » Sun Nov 8, 2015 11:55 pm

Kanyewest wrote:John Wall hasn't been playing like a top 5 point guard in the past two games. He has 20 assists but 15 turnovers while shooting 36% in those games.

Yep, doesn't even make the top 10 at this point...

payitforward · Post #562 » by **payitforward** » Mon Nov 9, 2015 12:29 am

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:That would have been amazing...

Definitely would have been Wizardry -- esp. since Lawson went #18. Of course w/ our #20 we still could have had Eric Maynor!

Nah... Make that Collison. Then, instead of trading our high R2 pick for chump change, we could have traded down for 2 picks and gotten Danny Green and Patty Mills. And instead of...

I remember being aghast (if I can get that through the censors) that the trade with Minny didn't get us the 18th pick. At the time, I thought Lawson was the top PG in the class - oops. To be fair, I was ahead of the curve on Harden.

Yes, I felt the same way. If you are giving away that pick to Minny, you be the one to get back the #18 -- not Denver.

I don't remember whether I thought Lawson was the *best* pg in the class -- but he looked like as close as you can get to a sure thing to me, a guy who would be very good in the league for a long time.

dckingsfan · Post #563 » by **dckingsfan** » Sat Jan 9, 2016 1:11 am

where do we rate him this year?

deneem4 · Post #564 » by **deneem4** » Sat Jan 9, 2016 1:41 am

dckingsfan wrote:where do we rate him this year?

I honestly got him right there with lillard at 5th or 6th...
And that's only cause beal is gone and McCollum is...
If he play like he did during that 20/10 mark stretch for the rest of the way he would pass cp3

Kanyewest · Post #565 » by **Kanyewest** » Sat Jan 9, 2016 2:21 am

dckingsfan wrote:where do we rate him this year?

I would say at his best Wall is capable of playing like a top 5 point guard (as shown in December) but as far as consistency goes this season and including November, he isn't in the top 5. Perhaps if Wall had more talent around him, I would rank him higher but as of right now, guys like Lowry and Jackson are outplaying him, and in the West guys like Curry, Paul, and Westbrook are playing at another level.

keynote · Post #566 » by **keynote** » Sat Jan 9, 2016 3:19 am

Wall's too inconsistent to be top 5. And, at this point, I'm concerned about his mental approach to the game as well. External stuff like all-star tallies and Kyrie's shine get under his skin, and seem to affect his play. I used to think that he used this as fuel to better himself (since that's what he told the media), but because he's so preoccupied with proving that he belongs with the elite, he translate that fuel into gunning for the spectacular instead of the smart. He has physical tools that virtually no other PG in the league has, and at times, he can dominate a game defensively in a way that no other PG can. Yet he doesn't do it all of the time; and he still turns the ball over too much and he's still a sub-80% FT shooter. Turnovers, missed FTs, and streaky play indicate a slight lack of focus. It's not much -- he's still a great player -- but it's enough to keep him from joining the elite. I suspect he knows there's a gap between him and the top PGs, but I don't think he has it in him to close that gap.

Post #567 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Sat Jan 9, 2016 3:45 am

Wall isn't a top 5 PG this season. (He wasn't last year either.) He was terrific in December, but mediocre in the first month of the season. And he's played horribly in January, so far. Tonight, he accounted for 17 zero-point possessions -- out of Washington's 98 possessions. He's gotta cut down on the turnovers and missed shots.

deneem4 · Post #568 » by **deneem4** » Sat Jan 9, 2016 4:33 am

Other than Lillard wall is the only other guard without elite talent on his team...considering McCollum is as good or better than beal has ever played during the regular season

Reggie Jackson has Drummond
The excuse is getting old but it's true wall is the best player by far on this team, what other elite guard can say that?
And because he goes out of performing well and struggling it shows he haven't yet reached an elite player level yet to keep his good play consistent even through his team struggles

thricethefun · Post #569 » by **thricethefun** » Sat Jan 9, 2016 4:35 am

Are we back to s.hitting on Wall? That time of year again?

dckingsfan · Post #570 » by **dckingsfan** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 3:01 pm

9th?
http://tinyurl.com/zmodtrg

Post #571 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 4:24 pm

dckingsfan wrote:9th?
http://tinyurl.com/zmodtrg

In my last PPA update (late last week), Wall was 12th among PGs in per minute production (minimum 500 minutes played). He was in a tight group with Bledsoe, Lillard, Jackson, Rondo and Evans (Tyreke might be more SG, though -- I'm just using b-r's position assignments). He's 7th in total production.

dckingsfan · Post #572 » by **dckingsfan** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 4:37 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:9th?
http://tinyurl.com/zmodtrg

In my last PPA update (late last week), Wall was 12th among PGs in per minute production (minimum 500 minutes played). He was in a tight group with Bledsoe, Lillard, Jackson, Rondo and Evans (Tyreke might be more SG, though -- I'm just using b-r's position assignments). He's 7th in total production.

Seems reasonable. I think he is frustrated. It shows in his body language and comments to the press. I think he is frustrated with his play and with the teams play.

I think he would need to play like a top 5 PG in the second half of the season for us to have a shot at the playoffs.

Post #573 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 4:42 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:9th?
http://tinyurl.com/zmodtrg

In my last PPA update (late last week), Wall was 12th among PGs in per minute production (minimum 500 minutes played). He was in a tight group with Bledsoe, Lillard, Jackson, Rondo and Evans (Tyreke might be more SG, though -- I'm just using b-r's position assignments). He's 7th in total production.

Seems reasonable. I think he is frustrated. It shows in his body language and comments to the press. I think he is frustrated with his play and with the teams play.

I think he would need to play like a top 5 PG in the second half of the season for us to have a shot at the playoffs.

He may need to play better than that. In December, his PPA was 202 and the Wizards went 8-8. A 202 for the full season would put him 4th behind Curry, Westbrook and Paul. If the Wizards are going to make the playoffs, I think they need Wall to play like a league MVP.

dckingsfan · Post #574 » by **dckingsfan** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 4:59 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:In my last PPA update (late last week), Wall was 12th among PGs in per minute production (minimum 500 minutes played). He was in a tight group with Bledsoe, Lillard, Jackson, Rondo and Evans (Tyreke might be more SG, though -- I'm just using b-r's position assignments). He's 7th in total production.

Seems reasonable. I think he is frustrated. It shows in his body language and comments to the press. I think he is frustrated with his play and with the teams play.

I think he would need to play like a top 5 PG in the second half of the season for us to have a shot at the playoffs.

He may need to play better than that. In December, his PPA was 202 and the Wizards went 8-8. A 202 for the full season would put him 4th behind Curry, Westbrook and Paul. If the Wizards are going to make the playoffs, I think they need Wall to play like a league MVP.

Yikes!

Post #575 » by **nate33** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 5:13 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Seems reasonable. I think he is frustrated. It shows in his body language and comments to the press. I think he is frustrated with his play and with the teams play.

I think he would need to play like a top 5 PG in the second half of the season for us to have a shot at the playoffs.

He may need to play better than that. In December, his PPA was 202 and the Wizards went 8-8. A 202 for the full season would put him 4th behind Curry, Westbrook and Paul. If the Wizards are going to make the playoffs, I think they need Wall to play like a league MVP.

Yikes!

While Wall was playing as the 4th best PG, we were missing Beal, Nene and Hump, plus we were missing Gortat and Gooden for stretches. I think with Wall playing with a PPA of 202 and the rest of the team remaining reasonably healthy, against a weaker schedule, the team can play above .500.

I'm not sure it's enough to close the ground to the 8th seed, but I don't think it's quite as hopeless as Nivek's numbers make it seem.

dckingsfan · Post #576 » by **dckingsfan** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 5:37 pm

nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:He may need to play better than that. In December, his PPA was 202 and the Wizards went 8-8. A 202 for the full season would put him 4th behind Curry, Westbrook and Paul. If the Wizards are going to make the playoffs, I think they need Wall to play like a league MVP.

Yikes!

While Wall was playing as the 4th best PG, we were missing Beal, Nene and Hump, plus we were missing Gortat and Gooden for stretches. I think with Wall playing with a PPA of 202 and the rest of the team remaining reasonably healthy, against a weaker schedule, the team can play above .500.

I'm not sure it's enough to close the ground to the 8th seed, but I don't think it's quite as hopeless as Nivek's numbers make it seem.

I think that we will continue to have health issues. I thing Porter is pretty banged up. Nene is going to come and go, same with Humph and Gooden. And Beal - not buying that he is going to have a long healthy stretch. So hope I am wrong.

And I might add - I think Wall is still dealing with his knee.

Post #577 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 5:41 pm

nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:He may need to play better than that. In December, his PPA was 202 and the Wizards went 8-8. A 202 for the full season would put him 4th behind Curry, Westbrook and Paul. If the Wizards are going to make the playoffs, I think they need Wall to play like a league MVP.

Yikes!

While Wall was playing as the 4th best PG, we were missing Beal, Nene and Hump, plus we were missing Gortat and Gooden for stretches. I think with Wall playing with a PPA of 202 and the rest of the team remaining reasonably healthy, against a weaker schedule, the team can play above .500.

I'm not sure it's enough to close the ground to the 8th seed, but I don't think it's quite as hopeless as Nivek's numbers make it seem.

Well, how much better than .500 is the question, right? Realistically, for the Wizards to reach the 8th seed, they're going to have to play significantly better than .500 unless it's 40 or 41 wins to get the 8th seed. Here's what they'd need to do the rest of the way to reach the number of target wins in the left-most column.

Code: Select all

TARGET  W       L       W%
45      24      13      0.649
44      23      14      0.622
43      22      15      0.595
42      21      16      0.568
41      20      17      0.541
40      19      18      0.514

I think it'll take 44 wins to make the playoffs with a fairly remote possibility of 43. I don't think 42 or fewer is realistic.

Post #578 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 6:28 pm

Just realized the game that got snowed out hasn't been rescheduled. I'd imagine they'll reschedule it if the game will matter in the standings. So, basically the Wiz may have to be even better than I'd originally thought.

For the hell of it, I went and checked on just how much easier the Wizards schedule gets. The average SRS of their remaining opponents is -0.82. Unfortunately, Washington's SRS is -1.80. So, the schedule gets easier, but still has been about a point better per game than the Wizards have been.

If I project the odds of each individual game, I come with the Wiz going 13-23 in the remainder of their scheduled games. I don't believe they can collapse to that degree. If I just project wins vs. the aggregate SRS of their remaining opponents, I get 17-19. I don't know yet when/where/if they'll make up that game against Utah.

They're going to have to play a bunch better.

Sluggerface · Post #579 » by **Sluggerface** » Tue Feb 2, 2016 4:03 am

I really can't see a move this team can make that is going to net them 5 more wins than their current pace.

CobraCommander · Post #580 » by **CobraCommander** » Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:31 pm

Everyone now has him as one of the top 5. It's not really an argument anymore. Lillard, Wall, Paul, Westbrook and Curry- It's pretty simple at this point. Wall thinks only Curry and Westbrook are better. The truth is Wall, Lillard and Paul are all swapping 3,4 or 5 game over game. The rest of the point guards have good games here and there...but I don't think anyone would take another Point over anyone 3-5. The only reason someone would trade for any of he top 5 would be because Paul will be 31 this year and is only 6'. As he gets older his size will come into play more as he slows up on offense and defense.