Official Trade Thread - Part XXX

[deneem4]

Double post

[deneem4]

Were going on a run we're not out of playoff contention...

You're a fan of this team, you deserve some slack for that alone, but based on everything you've seen so far this season I'm astounded that you would have any faith in this team being able to show any sort of consistency.

I've said it back in December, January was going to be a crucial month for this team. Lots of games against direct rivals and a string of home games and the Wizards basically went out and **** the bed.

A few nice victories, but mostly the same **** they've been putting on the floor all year.

They'll go on a run I'm sure, but in typical Wizards tradition it will be late in the season and likely to the detriment to this franchise.

I can already visualize them securing a first round exit against the Cavs only to watch the team in the 9th spot win the lottery.

We just need a consistent starting lineup...when we were most injured we won the most because our lineups were consistent we didn't have a choice who to play guys found thirty rhythm, basically injuries did randy job for him...as long as wall and Porter are healthy we have a chance

[payitforward]

He's a guy I'd like to get real cheap in free agency this offseason. Orlando barely plays him, so I doubt he costs much - if any - more than the minimum. He doesn't look like he'll be much of a defender, but he's got scoring skills, and he has 3 point range. He can be a good cheap backup stretch 4.

He can be cheap, but what would make anyone think he can be good? He's 26, he's never established himself in the league at all. He only had one good college season for that matter. This year he's shooting the 3 pretty well, but that's it. He doesn't defend, he doesn't rebound, he doesn't get any assists (i.e. doesn't see the court), doesn't get to the line, he turns it over too much. He looks like dead weight to me.

For the reasons I already stated. I watched him play several games in the NCAA tournament, and I like his skills set. And he has played reasonably well this season for a player who is - as I said - will likely play for the MINIMUM next season. News flash - you're usually not going to get a starter for the league minimum. And we have how many players signed for next season?

I understand, and in a sense you're right: how much of an argument can one put up against a guy who plays for the veteran minimum and likely sees next to no minutes anyway?

In another sense, though, I think I'm right: I'd rather reserve those end of bench spots for guys who are young and still have a chance to grow and establish themselves in the league. I think it's important to put yourself in a position where you can be *surprised*. In that sense, I think Nicholson is, as I opined above, dead weight.

Now... I *haven't* "watched him play several games in the NCAA tournament." Sometimes, for sure, we connect w/ a guy because he's been on our radar. But, I'd rather have e.g. Christian Wood in that spot down the bench than Nicholson. Yeah, I doubt CW will turn into much. But there are some possibilities guys like CW that don't seem to exist for guys like AN. Anyway, that was my thinking. YMMV.

[payitforward]

Well here is the thing, There are deals out there that make this team better now, and later. The 8th seed is not terrible this year. The cavs are not unbeatable. Kevin love if flawed ON that team, Kyrie is overrated, and LeBron is showing his age. If we do something Drastic like turn beal and a future first in two some good young starters and role players, we can make a run. I still think our best bet is teaming up with Philly, giving them Beal and they send one of their bigs to another team, We get Covington, and some good players form the other team. Denver, Orlando, The kings, The clippers, Nets, Jazz, and team like that would be good for this kind of three way trade.

If "there are deals out there that make this team better now and later" -- sure, lets do as many of those as possible! Of course! But... I'm still waiting to hear about one of those. Robert Covington, for example, is a 25 year old small forward. He's a nice player, an ok player, but I can't see him as someone to target.

Moreover, if we send out Beal, we are left with Garrett Temple and Gary Neal as our 2s. That's not a way to "make this team better now" (depending on who else we got back obviously...).

This off-season Nene goes away, and I sure hope we see the back of Gooden and Humphries. At which point we wouldn't have a single 4 on our roster -- not even one! If we were to send Beal to Philly, I'd want Noel back. Nate thinks his future is as a back up Center, but I see a 21 year old who is putting up excellent numbers already: looks like a starter to me, and maybe a really good one.

Still, Nate may be right -- we'll find out over time. And, Beal is another guy whose future is uncertain, so maybe that makes the trade appropriate. I'd certainly roll with that deal, especially if we got another young player. E.g. T.J. McConnell (but would they do that?), Richaun Holmes, or even Christian Wood.

Actually... Beal for Noel plus whatever would indeed make us better now. But I wonder what Beal's injury and his injury *history* have done to his trade value?

Just to clarify, I think Noel is a backup center as long as we still have Gortat on the squad. Playing Noel at PF isn't going to work.

I'm not opposed to a Beal for Noel trade though. It may be a little redundant to have Noel and Gortat together, but Gortat won't be around forever. Eventually, we can trade him or just wait 3 years before handing over starting center duties to Noel.

I could have been a little clearer: I meant a future starter, not to displace Gortat. And, because Noel is still on a rookie contract, we get a chance to see how much he develops. Meanwhile, he certainly doesn't cost too much for a backup Center.

Truth is, I doubt they'd give us Noel for Beal straight up -- let alone include another young player. Worth a try tho.

[Dark Faze]

i hope we make a move soon--a lot of damage can be done to the season between now and the deadline, especially with the upcoming stretch

[queridiculo]

Raptors nother trading val for gortat....they're playing to well to give up a core piece cap and have picks if they want to upgrade val...

I do think we need to find a partner for gortat as well as a buyer for Dudley....

Our core should be
Wall, beal, eddie, oubre, porter
(Eddie is honestly one of our best players knows his role and does exactly that, just need more experience)
Beal shouldn't be traded yet...no reason to sell low on a young shooting guard because of $$ concerns...health is never a question come the playoffs

That trade makes sense for the Raptors.

Valuncianas is a great talent, but from the Raptors perspective I can see why they wouldn't necessarily want to wait for him to realize his potential.

Gortat gives them a player that's more productive in the short term, and they add considerable depth once the playoffs come around with Nene.

An added benefit for them, they lop of nearly $4 million of their payroll next season giving them a bit more flexibility in the offseason.

My real concern here is, why is Grunfeld still allowed to make any sort of deals if he's not considered part of future plans.

A deal like this could only mean that we'll be stuck with Grunfeld for the foreseeable future.

[payitforward]

If I could trade Nenê and Gortat for Valanciunas, I'd do it in a second. Valanciunas is young, big and very good. His on/off numbers haven't actually been bad -- they've fluctuated year to year in a way that suggests some randomness that doesn't reflect on the quality of his play. As a rookie, TOR was worse when he was on the floor on offense, and about the same defensively. In year two, they were worse defensively, but about the same on offense. In year three, they were about the same on defense, but much worse on offense. This year, they're much better on offense, but a little worse on defense.

Taken as a whole, they've been about the same on offense, and slightly worse on defense.

While these kinds of numbers won't blow anyone's hair back, they're also fairly normal. Dan Rosenbaum did some research a few years back showing that players early in their careers were likely to have box score stats that outpaced their expected plus/minus numbers, but that box score production and plus/minus tended to "match up" as the player gains experience.

This would be a total no-brainer trade for the Wizards.

Agreed. I've been a big Gortat fan for many years. I wanted him for the Wizards when he left Orlando. But Valenciunas is both a better player overall and a much younger player.

That said, I'd find it hard to believe that any "Experts believe that the Raps could offer Jonas Valanciunas, Patrick Patterson and a draft pick to get Gortat and Nene."

Actually we should sign Gortat as our next GM: '"Everybody felt we were going to go high, we were going to go to the conference finals, stuff like that," Gortat added. "But we didn't make any particular trades or signings in the offseason so it's not like we're supposed to be a three times much better team this year.'

Someone tell me why the resident FO genius doesn't have that much common sense.

[queridiculo]

I could have been a little clearer: I meant a future starter, not to displace Gortat. And, because Noel is still on a rookie contract, we get a chance to see how much he develops. Meanwhile, he certainly doesn't cost too much for a backup Center.

Truth is, I doubt they'd give us Noel for Beal straight up -- let alone include another young player. Worth a try tho.

I don't know, Noel strikes me as being far behind the curve from a development perspective and the Sixers have spent and awful lot of time waiting for Embiid, if I'm the Sixers I'd jump at the chance of adding Beal to the roster in a straight up deal.

Beal might have some warts, but nothing that can't be fixed. Noel for Beal strikes me as a lopsided deal even in face of the contract he will likely command.

The real question is whether Beal would entertain being part of that teams future. If not, they could lose Noel for nothing just a year later.

[queridiculo]

Someone tell me why the resident FO genius doesn't have that much common sense.

All you have to do is listen to Leonsis, he tends to parrot the lines fed to him by our GM and it's basically "without Wall's injury the Wizards could have made a championship run".

[Ruzious]

He can be cheap, but what would make anyone think he can be good? He's 26, he's never established himself in the league at all. He only had one good college season for that matter. This year he's shooting the 3 pretty well, but that's it. He doesn't defend, he doesn't rebound, he doesn't get any assists (i.e. doesn't see the court), doesn't get to the line, he turns it over too much. He looks like dead weight to me.

For the reasons I already stated. I watched him play several games in the NCAA tournament, and I like his skills set. And he has played reasonably well this season for a player who is - as I said - will likely play for the MINIMUM next season. News flash - you're usually not going to get a starter for the league minimum. And we have how many players signed for next season?

I understand, and in a sense you're right: how much of an argument can one put up against a guy who plays for the veteran minimum and likely sees next to no minutes anyway?

In another sense, though, I think I'm right: I'd rather reserve those end of bench spots for guys who are young and still have a chance to grow and establish themselves in the league. I think it's important to put yourself in a position where you can be *surprised*. In that sense, I think Nicholson is, as I opined above, dead weight.

Now... I *haven't* "watched him play several games in the NCAA tournament." Sometimes, for sure, we connect w/ a guy because he's been on our radar. But, I'd rather have e.g. Christian Wood in that spot down the bench than Nicholson. Yeah, I doubt CW will turn into much. But there are some possibilities guys like CW that don't seem to exist for guys like AN. Anyway, that was my thinking. YMMV.

How old do you think Nicholson is? He's 26. From reading what you posted, it would be reasonable to assume he's in his 30's.

I like to evaluate players by looking at their stats AND watching them. Watching him play gives me more information. And looking at the stats this season, I'm not at all understanding your view that he can't play and has no upside, but you're entitled to your opinion.

And you really think getting him prevents you from getting Christian Wood? I wouldn't consider that a factor, but to each his own. Obviously, I would get Nicholson because I think he can play some - not to look pretty on the bench. We can have up to 15 folks on the roster, so there is room to put a high upside player on the roster even if he's not ready yet. If that's what you meant to say, then I'd agree with you.

[payitforward]

...Noel strikes me as being far behind the curve from a development perspective....

I don't know what would make you say that. Because he's not much of an offensive player? Compare his offensive stats to Gortat's.

Noel's numbers put him among the most promising Centers in the league right now, and he's not 22 yet. Compare him to Sullinger for example, a guy who is 2 years older than Noel. Every 40 minutes, Sullinger scores 1.6 more points than Noel. Thing is, he takes 4.5 more shots to do it. Overall, I put them about even. But Noel looks to have a much higher ceiling. I.e. not "behind the curve" but definitely w/ lots of room to develop.

[deneem4]

Gortat for Valanciunas
Sato for Portis
Dudley for McGary and two 2nd's
tank for lotto pick

Next year we'd be in pretty good shape:
PG Wall
SG Beal/Oubre
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Portis/McGary
C Valanciunas/McGary
$32M in cap room
lotto pick

Even if we strike out on Durant, we'd still have a very young core and could use the cap room for stopgap vets to build depth.

Do you see Oubre being effective at SG. Not sold on that yet. Also, I would like to see us move Beal. Maybe for the Cs two lower picks to try to pick up a SG?

Yeah, I'd be perfectly happy with nate's plan and revisiting Beal sometime before the trade deadline. With that frontcourt, we'll probably want to add a shot-blocker.

I agree with the Dudley and 2NDs for McGary if possible

Or nene/Lottery protected 1st
for Derrick williams and Kyle O'Quinn

Or trade for t jones Patrick p or m. Morris

Something to get us athletic down low considering we play better when faster...both are on good contracts and won't really mess with kd2dc

We don't play enough youth to get another pick...it would be a waste

[Hidden Eye]

Humphries + 1st round pick 202x+Anderson(?) for Markeiff Morris.

[pcbothwel]

I think we have a little time before the eventual trade off of Nene and Dudley. We play at the Bucks on Feb 11th and our next game isnt until the 19th. That means we have a full week from the Bucks game until the trade deadline (Feb 18th). Our next 8 games are as follows:
Denver
at Houston
at Oklahoma City
Golden State
Philadelphia
at Charlotte
at New York
at Milwaukee

I think we go 3-5 and that puts at 23-28. Looking at the other teams around us I see no way we catch the Knicks or Hornets in that time and while the Magic may do worse, the Bucks may move ahead a game or 2. That puts us at 11th in the east and 4-5 games back of the 8th spot. There is no way we are not a seller... Unless...EG

[Ruzious]

...Noel strikes me as being far behind the curve from a development perspective....

I don't know what would make you say that. Because he's not much of an offensive player? Compare his offensive stats to Gortat's.

Noel's numbers put him among the most promising Centers in the league right now, and he's not 22 yet. Compare him to Sullinger for example, a guy who is 2 years older than Noel. Every 40 minutes, Sullinger scores 1.6 more points than Noel. Thing is, he takes 4.5 more shots to do it. Overall, I put them about even. But Noel looks to have a much higher ceiling. I.e. not "behind the curve" but definitely w/ lots of room to develop.

But do you understand why it's important to play a stretch 4 or 5 next to a player like Noel? Why Noel and Sullinger would likely make an excellent pairing? Why teammates do matter? See Brandan Wright with and without Dirk Nowitzki

[nate33]

The real question is whether Beal would entertain being part of that teams future. If not, they could lose Noel for nothing just a year later.

Not an issue. Philly would have his RFA rights. Beal would have to take the qualifying offer to get out of Philly. And there's no chance he'd take on that injury risk, not to mention that gigantic pay cut.

[nate33]

Or nene/Lottery protected 1st
for Derrick williams and Kyle O'Quinn

Humphries + 1st round pick 202x+Anderson(?) for Markeiff Morris.

Would you people please stop giving away 1st round picks for mediocre players and/or unrestricted free agents?

[Ruzious]

Humphries + 1st round pick 202x+Anderson(?) for Markeiff Morris.

Put it this way - Morris' stats this season are far worse than Andrew Nicholson's, and he's getting paid $8 million a year. I would request a first round pick just for taking him.

[Dark Faze]

Philly would trade one of Nerlens/Okafor for Beal no question imo.

[queridiculo]

The real question is whether Beal would entertain being part of that teams future. If not, they could lose Noel for nothing just a year later.

Not an issue. Philly would have his RFA rights. Beal would have to take the qualifying offer to get out of Philly. And there's no chance he'd take on that injury risk, not to mention that gigantic pay cut.

If he doesn't want to be there he can force his way out, just look at what happened with Thompson and Cleveland.

There will be plenty of suitors, players like him don't become available all that often.