Bradley Beal - Part III

[nate33]

Is there any word on how long Beal's likely to be out?

He is traveling with the team. He is reportedly "sore" but walking on his own.

[Donkey McDonkerton]

Is there any word on how long Beal's likely to be out?

probably 2-3 weeks.

[payitforward]

So Ernie has his new excuse for why we won't have made the playoffs.... And "it's not my fault we gave up a lottery pick" either.

I guarantee you he's convincing Ted right now that Beal's injury is a good thing -- "it'll save us $ on his next contract. And next year we'll be terrific again -- better than ever."

[nate33]

I just cannot fathom Ted's logic in retaining Grunfeld. If nothing else, dumping EG and getting a new GM and coach would inspire a little excitement for the fanbase and maybe sell some tickets.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I thought I saw Leonsis very recently (like within the last week) endorsing "injuries" as The Official Reason for the team's .500-ish record. And, after a brief search, I found it:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TedLeonsis/status/705419446215680000[/tweet]

Yes, he tweeted "analytics this."

Which, of course, I already DID "analytics" and found that they probably would have won two additional games. Which would have them sitting 8th and on course to finish 42-40 and either 8th or 9th. Instead of 40-42 and on course for 9th or 10th.

I still think Leonsis might be millie.

By the way, I'm not the only person who "analyticsed" the issue. The site to which Leonsis linked shows that while the Wizards have the highest total in games missed due to injury, they're 9th in "lost VORP" (teams with greater "lost VORP" include the Clippers, Bulls, Heat, and Spurs), and 24th in "injury impact to team". The approach at mangameslost.com is quite different from mine, but the conclusions are similar.

[Ruzious]

4 injuries this season and at least one major injury each season. Yet, he's still likely going to get the max.

If you're a GM and/or owner and realize your starting guard gets injured every year, you can no longer use him getting injured as an excuse. You plan around him getting injured. And if you rely on Nene staying healthy, you count yourself LUCKY WITH INJURIES if he actually stays healthy a good chunk of the season.

[Rafael122]

His contract negotiations are going to be so interesting. Him and his agent would be pretty buck to walk in and ask for the max considering the amount of games he's missed.

Edit: I wouldn't mind offering a contract that could have him hit the max assuming he plays in a certain % of games. At this point you're just waiting for him to get hurt again.

[Dark Faze]

negotiation? he's getting a max. ernie doesn't negotiate.

[CobraCommander]

Beal is all about potential. I don't think you give someone the max for potential but you do your best to sign him. I think all of the wiz contract negotionations are based on getting Durant...which is another reason to fire EG and take Wittless with him-

I think everyone wants Beal but we want him to play consistently-

[Dark Faze]

If I felt like I had a lot of alternatives I'd be telling Brad to take a hike--but there's not much else out there. We'll probably use our remaining cap space paying a bunch of Harrison Barnes tiered free agents.

[pcbothwel]

I'm feeling a stroke of optimism today so I will share why Beal could still be very effective:

1) Offensive output/Efficiency: His 2%, eFg%, and TS% are all at career highs even though his 3pt% and Ft% is down.
I say this is a positive because he is taking the least amount of long 2's and the most within 3 ft in his career. This has made his fg% and FTA go up. If he keeps up this current shot selection, then he could simply shot his career average from 3 (39-40%) and from the line (79-80%) and be a very good player.

2) Initiate offense: Adding another primary ball handler (Satoransky) and having Beal continue to work on Ball handling/decision making will limit his TOV.

3) Coaching: Assuming we get better coaching, i believe another system would accentuate my first two points. Beal would have the ball in his hands less and shot less long 2's.

[Upper Decker]

I thought I saw Leonsis very recently (like within the last week) endorsing "injuries" as The Official Reason for the team's .500-ish record. And, after a brief search, I found it:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TedLeonsis/status/705419446215680000[/tweet]

Yes, he tweeted "analytics this."

Which, of course, I already DID "analytics" and found that they probably would have won two additional games. Which would have them sitting 8th and on course to finish 42-40 and either 8th or 9th. Instead of 40-42 and on course for 9th or 10th.

I still think Leonsis might be millie.

By the way, I'm not the only person who "analyticsed" the issue. The site to which Leonsis linked shows that while the Wizards have the highest total in games missed due to injury, they're 9th in "lost VORP" (teams with greater "lost VORP" include the Clippers, Bulls, Heat, and Spurs), and 24th in "injury impact to team". The approach at mangameslost.com is quite different from mine, but the conclusions are similar.

I hate this tweet by Turd. Screams of ignorance and unwillingness to embrace new ways to help contribute to an overall well-rounded approach. "Analytics this" smacks in the face of growth and further fuels my impression that Turd doesn't care about winning, he just cares about being proven right.

It bothers me that all these old school evaluators / athletes hate the concept of analytics. It's not the end all be all, but it's a valuable component that all successful teams utilize. It reminds me of Eastwood's line in trouble with the curve when he said (and I'll paraphrase), "I can tell how good they can hit by the sound of bat when it hits the ball." WTF does that mean? Turd and EG are making me hate this team.

[AFM]

You don't need "analytics" to see that this team is incredibly not deep and not good at basketball. So yes, an injury to any of our 5 legitimate NBA players is a huge blow. Thanks for the insight, Ted. Now please sell the team, you moron. If it wasn't for AOL, you'd be mopping the floor of a laundromat in east Athens.

[nate33]

I'm feeling a stroke of optimism today so I will share why Beal could still be very effective:

1) Offensive output/Efficiency: His 2%, eFg%, and TS% are all at career highs even though his 3pt% and Ft% is down.
I say this is a positive because he is taking the least amount of long 2's and the most within 3 ft in his career. This has made his fg% and FTA go up. If he keeps up this current shot selection, then he could simply shot his career average from 3 (39-40%) and from the line (79-80%) and be a very good player.

2) Initiate offense: Adding another primary ball handler (Satoransky) and having Beal continue to work on Ball handling/decision making will limit his TOV.

3) Coaching: Assuming we get better coaching, i believe another system would accentuate my first two points. Beal would have the ball in his hands less and shot less long 2's.

I'm far less optimistic. Beal's ever so slight improvement in TS% has come with an uptick in turnovers, making his ORtg about the same as his career average, and all this despite playing against second units much of the time.

The best I can say about Beal is that he has become a much more versatile scorer. He can now score with mediocre efficiency in multiple ways. Unfortunately, he's not really efficient at anything offensively. Even his solid career 3P% isn't tainted because of his low volume.

I have some hope that maybe Beal is just being used improperly. Wittman has given him the green light to probe the defense and try to create off the bounce, which is not his forte. If Beal had a better coach, he'd find a way to have Beal focus on his strengths and become more efficient at one or two things rather than being mediocre at everything. Beal would be much better in a Spurs type of system where he gets to shoot open 3's or attack closeouts.

I'll also add that Beal's defense has been terrible this season. I mean really, really bad. He has a DRtg of 109 and ranks 87th out of 95 shooting guards in ESPN's defensive RPM.

[Sluggerface]

I'll also add that Beal's defense has been terrible this season. I mean really, really bad. He has a DRtg of 109 and ranks 87th out of 95 shooting guards in ESPN's defensive RPM.

Concerning, that's a massive drop from where he was last season, which was a passable defender.

[fishercob]

Eric Gordon: Klay Thompson
Bradley Beal: Devin Booker

[queridiculo]

#WeAreBlessed

[dlts20]

I read today that Andersons restriction jumped again. At first it was 15min, then it was 20min, and now it's 24min. Hes coming off a serious injury and has had setbacks but they are raising his minutes quickly. Beal has been back for 20 years and they take forever to raise his minutes

[nate33]

I came across this in the Washington Post today:

Also a concern is the lack of ball movement. Despite ranking fifth in the league for the rate of field goals that are assisted (61.5 percent), the Wizards’ assist rate has been on the decline since January and has gone from 62.2 to 58.2 percent since the all-star break. That’s a drag on the offense, as the team makes 61.5 percent of their assisted field goals but just 38.5 percent of those unassisted. The disparity is even greater on three-point shots, which go from a success rate of 87.6 percent assisted to 12.4 percent when unassisted.

The timing corresponds to when Beal got back healthy. Is his ball-pounding hurting the flow of the offense? Look at the team assist percentage with Beal on the floor. (It's worth noting that Beal doesn't seem to hurt the team's ORtg, just the assist rate.)

[TheSecretWeapon]

I came across this in the Washington Post today:

Also a concern is the lack of ball movement. Despite ranking fifth in the league for the rate of field goals that are assisted (61.5 percent), the Wizards’ assist rate has been on the decline since January and has gone from 62.2 to 58.2 percent since the all-star break. That’s a drag on the offense, as the team makes 61.5 percent of their assisted field goals but just 38.5 percent of those unassisted. The disparity is even greater on three-point shots, which go from a success rate of 87.6 percent assisted to 12.4 percent when unassisted.

The timing corresponds to when Beal got back healthy. Is his ball-pounding hurting the flow of the offense? Look at the team assist percentage with Beal on the floor. (It's worth noting that Beal doesn't seem to hurt the team's ORtg, just the assist rate.)

I've apparently used up my free articles for the month. Sigh.

Would like to read the rest to see what Greenberg says, but assist rate isn't a very telling stat. The correlation between assist rate and offensive efficiency is typically fairly low. This year, it's .25. So, about 6% of the variation in offensive rating can be explained by the variation in assist rate. Here's the top 5 offenses this season by assist rate:

1. GSW 68.4%
2. OKC 55.4%
3. SAS 61.4%
4. CLE 58.4%
5. TOR 50.9%

So, at one, there's the Warriors -- also the league leaders in assist rate. At five, there's Toronto -- 29th in assist rate.

The Wizards and Spurs have nearly identical assist rates, but the Spurs are more than six points per 100 possessions more efficient overall.