2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[TheSecretWeapon]

I don't think Anderson is nearly the player he gets credit for being, which makes me think he's perfect for Ernie who will give him a ton of money.

In fact, I don't think he's particularly an upgrade from Jared Dudley. He scores more, yes, but Dudley is substantially more efficient (much better FG% - both 3 pt. and 2 pt.). Anderson is a better rebounder, but he isn't a good one.

Last season, Dudley took 9.3 FGAs every 40 minutes and scored 10.3 points with them. Anderson took 18.5 FGAs and scored 17.9 pts with them. IOW, his extra 9.2 FGAs netted 7.6 extra points.

Anderson narrowed the efficiency gap by getting to the line more, and shooting better when there, but all the same his TS% was 54.6% to Dudley's 60.2%.

At the same time, it's not a great comparison because Dudley is not a PF, should not play there, and usually hasn't. He'd be quite effective backing up the 2 and 3 for us; those are the positions he's mostly played in his over 16,000 NBA minutes.

I don't think Anderson will make us a better team, alas. But... we'll have to see. (If he's a wizard...)

Yep. I wanted Anderson for the Wizards several years ago, but a back injury and a personal tragedy (his girlfriend committed suicide) have reduced him to about average. In a conversation with a basketball writer recently, I made the same Anderson vs. Dudley comparison. Overall impact was similar last season -- Anderson is likely to cost a TON more, though.

I think Dudley can be used as an off-the-bench Forward -- splitting time between SF and PF (with the majority of his time coming at SF). I don't think he's quick enough to play SG much, however.

[DCZards]

Yep. I wanted Anderson for the Wizards several years ago, but a back injury and a personal tragedy (his girlfriend committed suicide) have reduced him to about average. In a conversation with a basketball writer recently, I made the same Anderson vs. Dudley comparison. Overall impact was similar last season -- Anderson is likely to cost a TON more, though.

I think Dudley can be used as an off-the-bench Forward -- splitting time between SF and PF (with the majority of his time coming at SF). I don't think he's quick enough to play SG much, however.

I'm a fan of Dudley's game and was happy to see him signed last offseason. But somewhere around midseason he stopped taking wide open 3s for some reason. (Others on this board have also commented about that.) What was that about? It was frustrating to watch.

Guy shoots 40+ % from three. If he is resigned, Dudley needs to shoot the freaking ball when he's open.

[nate33]

http://hoopshype.com/storyline/ryan-anderson-to-wizards/

I think Anderson is a great candidate for a one year deal. He's a great fit and we can overpay.

I don't think Anderson would be very interested in signing a 1-year deal. Someone is going to offer at least 4 years $64M, if not more. Why would he accept a 1-year deal from us, even if it's for $20M?

[pcbothwel]

http://hoopshype.com/storyline/ryan-anderson-to-wizards/

I think Anderson is a great candidate for a one year deal. He's a great fit and we can overpay.

I don't think Anderson would be very interested in signing a 1-year deal. Someone is going to offer at least 4 years $64M, if not more. Why would he accept a 1-year deal from us, even if it's for $20M?

Assuming that offer is out there...fine. But Anderson has had back and neck injuries recently. If teams only offer him a 3 year deal for 10-12M a year, then I could see him taking 12-15m for a one year deal to prove his health.

A 24 y/o Aminu signed for less than half that. I cant see a team giving him more money than a 23 y/o Khris Middleton.

And I know you could say that the cap is 20M higher this year, but then you have to take into account that the contracts given out last year existed only in a climate that forecasted increases by almost 40M over the next two years.

The cap is going to be 92M next year and it is expected to jump up to about 108M in 2017, but it is very uncertain after that and will flat line.

[Kanyewest]

http://hoopshype.com/storyline/ryan-anderson-to-wizards/

I think Anderson is a great candidate for a one year deal. He's a great fit and we can overpay.

I don't think Anderson would be very interested in signing a 1-year deal. Someone is going to offer at least 4 years $64M, if not more. Why would he accept a 1-year deal from us, even if it's for $20M?

Of course Alan Anderson would sign that deal

[TheSecretWeapon]

Yep. I wanted Anderson for the Wizards several years ago, but a back injury and a personal tragedy (his girlfriend committed suicide) have reduced him to about average. In a conversation with a basketball writer recently, I made the same Anderson vs. Dudley comparison. Overall impact was similar last season -- Anderson is likely to cost a TON more, though.

I think Dudley can be used as an off-the-bench Forward -- splitting time between SF and PF (with the majority of his time coming at SF). I don't think he's quick enough to play SG much, however.

I'm a fan of Dudley's game and was happy to see him signed last offseason. But somewhere around midseason he stopped taking wide open 3s for some reason. (Others on this board have also commented about that.) What was that about? It was frustrating to watch.

Guy shoots 40+ % from three. If he is resigned, Dudley needs to shoot the freaking ball when he's open.

Here's what I see in the numbers. For the year, Dudley attempted 5.45 threes per 48 minutes. That number actually went up a bit to 5.68 per 48 after they traded for Morris. BUT, most of that increase was in the first few games; when they sent Dudley to the bench, his 3pt attempts dropped to 4.33 per 48 minutes.

I could probably dig up openness numbers, and I would if I had more time. That drop coincides exactly with when Dudley became unhappy with how he was being used and the sets the team was running with the bench unit. Basically, he said he went from screen/roll sets with starters to post-up sets for Nenê with the bench unit. He was more comfortable in the screen/roll sets, and was puzzled why they wouldn't run them with the bench unit. He was...umm...not enamored with the acumen of the coaching staff.

[thinker07]

Lots of opinions about the smart things to do this off season. I was a political and national security person for a number of years so I like to look for the little indicators in plain view that will help me predict things. I think there's just about everything you need looking at three things:

1) All decisions will have to fit within the narrative that Ted "believes" he has told. I know lots of posters think that Ted has been inconsistent in that and that's probably true. BUT I don't think Ted thinks he's been inconsistent.

2) All decisions have to fit within the established "value system" that Ernie has shown over the years.

3) All decisions have to fit with what is good for and helps John Wall be successful and happy.

So how that all plays out obviously depends on a bunch of things outside of our control BUT here are some predictions based on using the above:

1) Beal will be resigned for the max or close to the max.
A Ted sees him as a core guy to the "plan."
B It's very rare for a conventional GM type to let a guy like him go and I think this off season will be very tough to force a sign and trade with so many teams with max cap space. I think a sign and trade might lose us cap space too. I think it's probably very complicated but if we sign him before we've capped out then how much space would we free up? If he signs for $20 mil with his Bird rights then we trade him how much $$ can we bring back? What are we left with?
C I think Wall really like playing with Beal and he fits well with him

2) ZERO chance Wiz decide to re set the rebuild. They're going to try and be a good playoff team next year.

3) Very little chance we will sign some name player to a one-year contract and go again after free agents next year unless we are rejected by virtually every target we have. I think the team is looking at a three year window with Wall, Beal, Gortat, Morris, Oubre, and Porter if we want to keep him.
A Watch Wall's exit interview. How many times did he say a big part of the problem this last year was 9 players on one year contracts? A bunch of times. I REALLY think they will try to avoid any core guys being on one year deals. They want guys bought in.

4) Who did John Wall say he'd like back? Dudley, Temple and Anderson (If he gets healthy). I'd be very surprised if none of these guys returned. He didn't say Sessions which was very telling to me. Another indicator that the expectation is that Sato will be joining the team.

5) Which leads to Sato will join the team.
A Vindicates the decision to draft him amongst all the other draft mistakes.
B Euro with great size and athleticism -- Ernie LOVES that type
C I have to think his style plays well off of Wall and provides better play making on the second team

6) I think there is about a 25% chance we sign a top tier type max guy (not you know who) but of the category of Horford, Batum, Parsons, Barnes, Whiteside, etc. More likely would be signing 3 mid major money guys - Sato and two others in the Biyombo, Ezeli, Teletovic. Maybe Motiejunas fits if his back is recovered. There are some good RFAs like Crabbe and Harkless of Portland or Powell of Dallas but I think they'll be hard to pry away. Guys like Bazemore, Tyler Johnson, Gerald Green, Plumlee are interesting too. I'm not really proposing any of these guys -- just using examples. I'm not trying to have a YODA loves this guy but hates this guy thing.

7) I think the way the market plays out means there's not too great a chance of signing a guy who is a lot better than one of our current projected starters. I'm not saying our starters are that good, just that a clear upgrade won't be that easy to sign. So I think we're more likely to go after VERY solid guys who are slated as backups, possibly with upside. I think what Portland did last year in free agency and how that turned out opened some eyes.

8) So it wouldn't surprise me at all if we ended up with the acquisitions being on the order of players like Sato, Teletovic, Plumlee, Dudley, Temple, Aaron White, Gerald Green/Bazemore. Something like that.

9) Worst #SoWizards nightmare? Jeff Green

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I agree. The problem is that it was a blown pick -- much better players were available, and we were pointing to them here. And it was compounded by Ernie going on to blow the #18 pick as well. And then blowing the #34 pick by taking Mack, giving him no time to develop, then waiving him and watching him turn into a reasonably valuable asset as a backup PG.

I can easily imagine Vesely succeeding w/ the Suns. Hope he comes over and that's what happens.

Vesely to the Suns and their Wizards pick becoming a perennial all star is something I would LOVE to see.

Sweet indeed.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The one possibility that others have mentioned that intrigues me would be trading Beal to Philly. This comes up again in my mind because of two things I just realized:

1. Philly just had a radical change of management -- Hinkie out & Colangelo in. They are over-stuffed w/ very young players. I'm guessing they'd be delighted to make a deal for their # 24 and # 26 picks. And, who knows, they may even be available to deal their overall #1 pick -- tho that's very rare, obviously.

2. The last good off season Ernie had was in 2010, when GMs were frothing at the mouth over a bunch of FAs -- i.e. they had tunnel vision. He got Heinrich & the #17 pick from the Bulls for nothing (the rights to Vereemenko, picked late in R2 some years back, a guy who was never going to play in the league and never did). Then, late in the season, he unloaded Heinrich to Atlanta for Crawford and a pick. So basically he had dealt nothing for a #17 pick, a #19 pick and Jordan Crawford (who imploded -- but, he'd been a R1 pick 10 months earlier). Now... he turned those picks into nothing and got nothing for Crawford either, but that's a different issue.

I.e. Ernie showed himself to be good at letting other GMs make the mistakes they wanted to make. If Colangelo is in that "frothing at the mouth" mode, who knows? Maybe there's a good deal to made with him that involves Beal?

Would we take Noel, one of the low R1 picks, and say... Holmes or Covington for Beal? Would they do such a deal? Would we want to do it?

What about Embiid or Okafor instead of Noel? Any thoughts?

I would absolutely trade Beal for Noel no questions asked, hell even straight up... Okafor would have to come with a pick since I think he is a travesty on defense and I have my doubts he ever becomes a two way player... but he is young... so I guess I am suppose to give him the benefit of the doubt :/ ... I don't think I would even consider Embiid at this point to be honest. Not unless multiple picks are attached to him.

I would try to extract Holmes from Philly, liked him pre draft and think he was solid for a 2nd rounder in his rookie season on an abominable team. I believe Christian Wood also signed with philly towards season end, I'm sure BC will go a more "veteran" route like our boy wonder of a GM...so perhaps he can be picked up for a vet minimum as well.

Truth be told my primary target with philly might be Richaun Holmes though. Since I think he might be the most realistic grab.

Never mind

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Lots of opinions about the smart things to do this off season. I was a political and national security person for a number of years so I like to look for the little indicators in plain view that will help me predict things. I think there's just about everything you need looking at three things:

1) All decisions will have to fit within the narrative that Ted "believes" he has told. I know lots of posters think that Ted has been inconsistent in that and that's probably true. BUT I don't think Ted thinks he's been inconsistent.

2) All decisions have to fit within the established "value system" that Ernie has shown over the years.

3) All decisions have to fit with what is good for and helps John Wall be successful and happy.

So how that all plays out obviously depends on a bunch of things outside of our control BUT here are some predictions based on using the above:

1) Beal will be resigned for the max or close to the max.
A Ted sees him as a core guy to the "plan."
B It's very rare for a conventional GM type to let a guy like him go and I think this off season will be very tough to force a sign and trade with so many teams with max cap space. I think a sign and trade might lose us cap space too. I think it's probably very complicated but if we sign him before we've capped out then how much space would we free up? If he signs for $20 mil with his Bird rights then we trade him how much $$ can we bring back? What are we left with?
C I think Wall really like playing with Beal and he fits well with him

2) ZERO chance Wiz decide to re set the rebuild. They're going to try and be a good playoff team next year.

3) Very little chance we will sign some name player to a one-year contract and go again after free agents next year unless we are rejected by virtually every target we have. I think the team is looking at a three year window with Wall, Beal, Gortat, Morris, Oubre, and Porter if we want to keep him.
A Watch Wall's exit interview. How many times did he say a big part of the problem this last year was 9 players on one year contracts? A bunch of times. I REALLY think they will try to avoid any core guys being on one year deals. They want guys bought in.

4) Who did John Wall say he'd like back? Dudley, Temple and Anderson (If he gets healthy). I'd be very surprised if none of these guys returned. He didn't say Sessions which was very telling to me. Another indicator that the expectation is that Sato will be joining the team.

5) Which leads to Sato will join the team.
A Vindicates the decision to draft him amongst all the other draft mistakes.
B Euro with great size and athleticism -- Ernie LOVES that type
C I have to think his style plays well off of Wall and provides better play making on the second team

6) I think there is about a 25% chance we sign a top tier type max guy (not you know who) but of the category of Horford, Batum, Parsons, Barnes, Whiteside, etc. More likely would be signing 3 mid major money guys - Sato and two others in the Biyombo, Ezeli, Teletovic. Maybe Motiejunas fits if his back is recovered. There are some good RFAs like Crabbe and Harkless of Portland or Powell of Dallas but I think they'll be hard to pry away. Guys like Bazemore, Tyler Johnson, Gerald Green, Plumlee are interesting too. I'm not really proposing any of these guys -- just using examples. I'm not trying to have a YODA loves this guy but hates this guy thing.

7) I think the way the market plays out means there's not too great a chance of signing a guy who is a lot better than one of our current projected starters. I'm not saying our starters are that good, just that a clear upgrade won't be that easy to sign. So I think we're more likely to go after VERY solid guys who are slated as backups, possibly with upside. I think what Portland did last year in free agency and how that turned out opened some eyes.

8) So it wouldn't surprise me at all if we ended up with the acquisitions being on the order of players like Sato, Teletovic, Plumlee, Dudley, Temple, Aaron White, Gerald Green/Bazemore. Something like that.

9) Worst #SoWizards nightmare? Jeff Green

Great post!

Ted is a billionaire but if you talk to me for 15 minutes my advice would be priceless to them.

Relax about Jeff Green. Marvin Williams, Austin Rivers, and Dion Waiters each got better--after going to new teams/situations/coaches. Not that I would be happy with Jeff Green on the wizards.

[fishercob]

I don't think Anderson is nearly the player he gets credit for being, which makes me think he's perfect for Ernie who will give him a ton of money.

In fact, I don't think he's particularly an upgrade from Jared Dudley. He scores more, yes, but Dudley is substantially more efficient (much better FG% - both 3 pt. and 2 pt.). Anderson is a better rebounder, but he isn't a good one.

Last season, Dudley took 9.3 FGAs every 40 minutes and scored 10.3 points with them. Anderson took 18.5 FGAs and scored 17.9 pts with them. IOW, his extra 9.2 FGAs netted 7.6 extra points.

Anderson narrowed the efficiency gap by getting to the line more, and shooting better when there, but all the same his TS% was 54.6% to Dudley's 60.2%.

At the same time, it's not a great comparison because Dudley is not a PF, should not play there, and usually hasn't. He'd be quite effective backing up the 2 and 3 for us; those are the positions he's mostly played in his over 16,000 NBA minutes.

I don't think Anderson will make us a better team, alas. But... we'll have to see. (If he's a wizard...)

Yep. I wanted Anderson for the Wizards several years ago, but a back injury and a personal tragedy (his girlfriend committed suicide) have reduced him to about average. In a conversation with a basketball writer recently, I made the same Anderson vs. Dudley comparison. Overall impact was similar last season -- Anderson is likely to cost a TON more, though.

I think Dudley can be used as an off-the-bench Forward -- splitting time between SF and PF (with the majority of his time coming at SF). I don't think he's quick enough to play SG much, however.

The concern with Dudley is that he sees himself solely as a stretch big, and has stated as such. Unless he's hidden amongst a lineup of rebounding monsters, he's going to hurt the team with big minutes at the four.

I don't have a problem with signing Anderson in a vacuum. I think I'd play him as a sixth man, bring him in for Morris midway through the first so he gets ample court time with Wall, and then bring Morris back in for Gortat as backup C. You'd need a low-minute 4th big (ideally a young, developmental/upside guy) but I think overall the fit would be decent.

The problem -- because there's no vacuum -- is the price. Players are going to be so expensive this summer; it's going to be really hard to get "fair value" for the money you pay to sign a guy unless he's a legit superstar (KD). The old "Winner's Curse" is going to be rampant this summer. This further drives home the point that the Wizards were so misguided to not be aggressive last summer. Similarly, I expect them to spend lavishly this year and further screw themselves. If I was running the show -- assuming KD was not an option -- I'd be very judicious with my money this summer and "keep my powder dry" for a day in the not too distant future when financial flexibility was a competitive advantage. It obviously isn't now; there's too much money out there.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Oops

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Aloha, fishercob!

I'm gonna rock the Chocolate City gear like it's not perhaps a wee bit too small.



I admire fat women who go to the beach in two-piece bikinis. Some even go thongish on the bottoms. They have good self esteem...to be emulated maybe...

I can't thank you enough. Class personified. Fishercob

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't think Anderson is nearly the player he gets credit for being, which makes me think he's perfect for Ernie who will give him a ton of money.

In fact, I don't think he's particularly an upgrade from Jared Dudley. He scores more, yes, but Dudley is substantially more efficient (much better FG% - both 3 pt. and 2 pt.). Anderson is a better rebounder, but he isn't a good one.

Last season, Dudley took 9.3 FGAs every 40 minutes and scored 10.3 points with them. Anderson took 18.5 FGAs and scored 17.9 pts with them. IOW, his extra 9.2 FGAs netted 7.6 extra points.

Anderson narrowed the efficiency gap by getting to the line more, and shooting better when there, but all the same his TS% was 54.6% to Dudley's 60.2%.

At the same time, it's not a great comparison because Dudley is not a PF, should not play there, and usually hasn't. He'd be quite effective backing up the 2 and 3 for us; those are the positions he's mostly played in his over 16,000 NBA minutes.

I don't think Anderson will make us a better team, alas. But... we'll have to see. (If he's a wizard...)

Yep. I wanted Anderson for the Wizards several years ago, but a back injury and a personal tragedy (his girlfriend committed suicide) have reduced him to about average. In a conversation with a basketball writer recently, I made the same Anderson vs. Dudley comparison. Overall impact was similar last season -- Anderson is likely to cost a TON more, though.

I think Dudley can be used as an off-the-bench Forward -- splitting time between SF and PF (with the majority of his time coming at SF). I don't think he's quick enough to play SG much, however.

The concern with Dudley is that he sees himself solely as a stretch big, and has stated as such. Unless he's hidden amongst a lineup of rebounding monsters, he's going to hurt the team with big minutes at the four.

I don't have a problem with signing Anderson in a vacuum. I think I'd play him as a sixth man, bring him in for Morris midway through the first so he gets ample court time with Wall, and then bring Morris back in for Gortat as backup C. You'd need a low-minute 4th big (ideally a young, developmental/upside guy) but I think overall the fit would be decent.

The problem -- because there's no vacuum -- is the price. Players are going to be so expensive this summer; it's going to be really hard to get "fair value" for the money you pay to sign a guy unless he's a legit superstar (KD). The old "Winner's Curse" is going to be rampant this summer. This further drives home the point that the Wizards were so misguided to not be aggressive last summer. Similarly, I expect them to spend lavishly this year and further screw themselves. If I was running the show -- assuming KD was not an option -- I'd be very judicious with my money this summer and "keep my powder dry" for a day in the not too distant future when financial flexibility was a competitive advantage. It obviously isn't now; there's too much money out there.

I expected Dudley to be better than he turned out overall.

I also would love to see Ryan Anderson added to the Wizards roster. I forgot that his girlfriend committed suicide. Tragic.

This summer I don't think they should go for expensive players. I think they should go for young players with potential. Inexpensive young players

[Ruzious]

Yep. I wanted Anderson for the Wizards several years ago, but a back injury and a personal tragedy (his girlfriend committed suicide) have reduced him to about average. In a conversation with a basketball writer recently, I made the same Anderson vs. Dudley comparison. Overall impact was similar last season -- Anderson is likely to cost a TON more, though.

I think Dudley can be used as an off-the-bench Forward -- splitting time between SF and PF (with the majority of his time coming at SF). I don't think he's quick enough to play SG much, however.

I'm a fan of Dudley's game and was happy to see him signed last offseason. But somewhere around midseason he stopped taking wide open 3s for some reason. (Others on this board have also commented about that.) What was that about? It was frustrating to watch.

Guy shoots 40+ % from three. If he is resigned, Dudley needs to shoot the freaking ball when he's open.

Here's what I see in the numbers. For the year, Dudley attempted 5.45 threes per 48 minutes. That number actually went up a bit to 5.68 per 48 after they traded for Morris. BUT, most of that increase was in the first few games; when they sent Dudley to the bench, his 3pt attempts dropped to 4.33 per 48 minutes.

I could probably dig up openness numbers, and I would if I had more time. That drop coincides exactly with when Dudley became unhappy with how he was being used and the sets the team was running with the bench unit. Basically, he said he went from screen/roll sets with starters to post-up sets for Nenê with the bench unit. He was more comfortable in the screen/roll sets, and was puzzled why they wouldn't run them with the bench unit. He was...umm...not enamored with the acumen of the coaching staff.

Well, playing with Nene and Sessions - who aren't known as PnR players, I'm not sure why he'd be surprised they didn't use PnR sets. Regardless, that's no reason he routinely wouldn't shoot 3's unless he was wiiiiiiiide open unless he felt that his release became too slow - which I think is likely.

[gtn130]

Chandler Parsons is the best option for the Wizards iyam. He's realistically attainable and would allow the team to actually be good on offense for once. He's been a big contributor to very good offenses every year of his career after his rookie season.

Signing Horford would be cool, but I'm not sure how that works with Gortat. Maxing H Barnes sounds awful. Whiteside is cancerous and also wouldn't work with Gortat. Signing Batum would be ok, but a max feels like way too much. Randerson is a good player and good fit but I doubt EG/Ted are giving up on Markieff, and also age/durability are more of an issue with him.

I'd also be in favor of resigning Dudley and finding a big who can play some defense off the bench like Biyombo before Biyombo gets paid (lol MJ). Maybe Ian Mahinmi fits that profile.

So, Parsons/Dudley/Defensive rotation big are my moves.

[gambitx777]

Honestly I would rather not resign dudley if he is not ok with sitting on the bench and being injury insurance. I want Kelly to get his chance to play. I would like to let dudley go even cut temple and go after guys like Jordan Hamilton (A better temple IMO) or Allen Crabe would be decent beal insurence but obviously Sato is the dream guard to bring in. PG wise Donald sloan and noriss cole would be decent targets. PF Andrew Nicholson, Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones if the prices are right and the former rockets can be healthy. We also have Aaron White who can come in too. C Tyler Zeller, Miles Plumlee(if they don't pick up his option.) Henry Sims, Dewayne Dedmon (if they don't pick up his option) and Robert Sacre.
Those are all value guys who won't break the bank and are still young. If we are talking big money guys I say go after white side and move gortat to the bench. That would be a monster rotation if you bring out white side only to put in gortat.

[Ruzious]

Chandler Parsons is the best option for the Wizards iyam. He's realistically attainable and would allow the team to actually be good on offense for once. He's been a big contributor to very good offenses every year of his career after his rookie season.

Signing Horford would be cool, but I'm not sure how that works with Gortat. Maxing H Barnes sounds awful. Whiteside is cancerous and also wouldn't work with Gortat. Signing Batum would be ok, but a max feels like way too much. Randerson is a good player and good fit but I doubt EG/Ted are giving up on Markieff, and also age/durability are more of an issue with him.

I'd also be in favor of resigning Dudley and finding a big who can play some defense off the bench like Biyombo before Biyombo gets paid (lol MJ). Maybe Ian Mahinmi fits that profile.

So, Parsons/Dudley/Defensive rotation big are my moves.

The only problem, imo, with Horford is his age. Unfortunately, it's a big problem, but getting him would be one of the few ways to avoid becoming a mediocre or less team. He'd fit almost perfectly with Gortat - until they decline. Horford was always a natural 4 who was forced to play 5 and did a nice job at it.

Parsons is a very nice offensive player, but he's so soft on defense that I don't consider him a legit stretch 4. I don't see him as a fit.

Biyombo would be a nice get, but as you alluded to, he's likely in for a large pay increase. It still might be worth getting him if we commit to rebuilding.

[nate33]

Right now, my boring, non-glamorous plan for the offseason would be to sign Biyombo to a long term contract (say, 4 years, 40M). Sign Quincy Acy for 2 years, $3M a year or so. Resign Sessions for 2 years at whatever he costs (maybe $5M per). And sign Sato. That gets us 2 deep at every position before factoring vet-minimum contracts and training camp invites:

PG Wall/Sessions
SG Beal/Sato
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Morris/Acy
C Gortat/Biyombo

Would probably need to add one more vet SF - maybe Alan Anderson (because he stole money last season). It would be nice to keep Garrett Temple around too. Would also need a vet-minimum 5th big man.

[DCZards]

Lots of opinions about the smart things to do this off season. I was a political and national security person for a number of years so I like to look for the little indicators in plain view that will help me predict things. I think there's just about everything you need looking at three things:

1) All decisions will have to fit within the narrative that Ted "believes" he has told. I know lots of posters think that Ted has been inconsistent in that and that's probably true. BUT I don't think Ted thinks he's been inconsistent.

2) All decisions have to fit within the established "value system" that Ernie has shown over the years.

3) All decisions have to fit with what is good for and helps John Wall be successful and happy.

So how that all plays out obviously depends on a bunch of things outside of our control BUT here are some predictions based on using the above:

1) Beal will be resigned for the max or close to the max.
A Ted sees him as a core guy to the "plan."
B It's very rare for a conventional GM type to let a guy like him go and I think this off season will be very tough to force a sign and trade with so many teams with max cap space. I think a sign and trade might lose us cap space too. I think it's probably very complicated but if we sign him before we've capped out then how much space would we free up? If he signs for $20 mil with his Bird rights then we trade him how much $$ can we bring back? What are we left with?
C I think Wall really like playing with Beal and he fits well with him

2) ZERO chance Wiz decide to re set the rebuild. They're going to try and be a good playoff team next year.

3) Very little chance we will sign some name player to a one-year contract and go again after free agents next year unless we are rejected by virtually every target we have. I think the team is looking at a three year window with Wall, Beal, Gortat, Morris, Oubre, and Porter if we want to keep him.
A Watch Wall's exit interview. How many times did he say a big part of the problem this last year was 9 players on one year contracts? A bunch of times. I REALLY think they will try to avoid any core guys being on one year deals. They want guys bought in.

4) Who did John Wall say he'd like back? Dudley, Temple and Anderson (If he gets healthy). I'd be very surprised if none of these guys returned. He didn't say Sessions which was very telling to me. Another indicator that the expectation is that Sato will be joining the team.

5) Which leads to Sato will join the team.
A Vindicates the decision to draft him amongst all the other draft mistakes.
B Euro with great size and athleticism -- Ernie LOVES that type
C I have to think his style plays well off of Wall and provides better play making on the second team

6) I think there is about a 25% chance we sign a top tier type max guy (not you know who) but of the category of Horford, Batum, Parsons, Barnes, Whiteside, etc. More likely would be signing 3 mid major money guys - Sato and two others in the Biyombo, Ezeli, Teletovic. Maybe Motiejunas fits if his back is recovered. There are some good RFAs like Crabbe and Harkless of Portland or Powell of Dallas but I think they'll be hard to pry away. Guys like Bazemore, Tyler Johnson, Gerald Green, Plumlee are interesting too. I'm not really proposing any of these guys -- just using examples. I'm not trying to have a YODA loves this guy but hates this guy thing.

7) I think the way the market plays out means there's not too great a chance of signing a guy who is a lot better than one of our current projected starters. I'm not saying our starters are that good, just that a clear upgrade won't be that easy to sign. So I think we're more likely to go after VERY solid guys who are slated as backups, possibly with upside. I think what Portland did last year in free agency and how that turned out opened some eyes.

8) So it wouldn't surprise me at all if we ended up with the acquisitions being on the order of players like Sato, Teletovic, Plumlee, Dudley, Temple, Aaron White, Gerald Green/Bazemore. Something like that.

9) Worst #SoWizards nightmare? Jeff Green

Good post. A lot of ideas and possibilities. I like names like possibly under the radar guys such as Harkless. I'd like to see the Zards prioritize a rim protector and rebounder, maybe Ezeli or Mahimi. In fact, I'd go after Whiteside and worry later about his attitude or what to do with Gortat.

I'm surprised you didn't mention the hiring of Brooks upfront as one of the key factors--or "indicators in plain view." I don't think there is any way that Brooks takes the Zards job without assurances from Ted and EG that he'll have considerable say in personnel matters, especially given that he's taking over a team with only 5 guys under contract. Scottie's game plan will be a major factor in shaping what the Zards look like next season.