2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[LyricalRico]

Chandler Parsons is the best option for the Wizards iyam. He's realistically attainable and would allow the team to actually be good on offense for once. He's been a big contributor to very good offenses every year of his career after his rookie season.

Signing Horford would be cool, but I'm not sure how that works with Gortat. Maxing H Barnes sounds awful. Whiteside is cancerous and also wouldn't work with Gortat. Signing Batum would be ok, but a max feels like way too much. Randerson is a good player and good fit but I doubt EG/Ted are giving up on Markieff, and also age/durability are more of an issue with him.

I'd also be in favor of resigning Dudley and finding a big who can play some defense off the bench like Biyombo before Biyombo gets paid (lol MJ). Maybe Ian Mahinmi fits that profile.

So, Parsons/Dudley/Defensive rotation big are my moves.

The only problem, imo, with Horford is his age. Unfortunately, it's a big problem, but getting him would be one of the few ways to avoid becoming a mediocre or less team. He'd fit almost perfectly with Gortat - until they decline. Horford was always a natural 4 who was forced to play 5 and did a nice job at it.

Parsons is a very nice offensive player, but he's so soft on defense that I don't consider him a legit stretch 4. I don't see him as a fit.

Biyombo would be a nice get, but as you alluded to, he's likely in for a large pay increase. It still might be worth getting him if we commit to rebuilding.

Hadn't considered Parsons. Will he even be healthy?

On the plus side, Parsons only has 1 year left on his deal. If we struck out on everything and so does Dallas, maybe swap Gortat for Parsons? The Mavs need a center and we clear more 2017 space.

[pcbothwel]

Chandler Parsons is the best option for the Wizards iyam. He's realistically attainable and would allow the team to actually be good on offense for once. He's been a big contributor to very good offenses every year of his career after his rookie season.

Signing Horford would be cool, but I'm not sure how that works with Gortat. Maxing H Barnes sounds awful. Whiteside is cancerous and also wouldn't work with Gortat. Signing Batum would be ok, but a max feels like way too much. Randerson is a good player and good fit but I doubt EG/Ted are giving up on Markieff, and also age/durability are more of an issue with him.

I'd also be in favor of resigning Dudley and finding a big who can play some defense off the bench like Biyombo before Biyombo gets paid (lol MJ). Maybe Ian Mahinmi fits that profile.

So, Parsons/Dudley/Defensive rotation big are my moves.

The only problem, imo, with Horford is his age. Unfortunately, it's a big problem, but getting him would be one of the few ways to avoid becoming a mediocre or less team. He'd fit almost perfectly with Gortat - until they decline. Horford was always a natural 4 who was forced to play 5 and did a nice job at it.

Parsons is a very nice offensive player, but he's so soft on defense that I don't consider him a legit stretch 4. I don't see him as a fit.

Biyombo would be a nice get, but as you alluded to, he's likely in for a large pay increase. It still might be worth getting him if we commit to rebuilding.

Im right there with Horford. He can play the 4 and provide us with much needed depth at the 5. We can play small ball with the best of them, but a Horford/ Gortat/ Morris rotation in the front court allows us to bully teams that try to get too cute. All three are very good defenders and can score quite efficiently (Morris not as much).

[payitforward]

I don't think Anderson is nearly the player he gets credit for being, which makes me think he's perfect for Ernie who will give him a ton of money.

In fact, I don't think he's particularly an upgrade from Jared Dudley. He scores more, yes, but Dudley is substantially more efficient (much better FG% - both 3 pt. and 2 pt.). Anderson is a better rebounder, but he isn't a good one.

Last season, Dudley took 9.3 FGAs every 40 minutes and scored 10.3 points with them. Anderson took 18.5 FGAs and scored 17.9 pts with them. IOW, his extra 9.2 FGAs netted 7.6 extra points.

Anderson narrowed the efficiency gap by getting to the line more, and shooting better when there, but all the same his TS% was 54.6% to Dudley's 60.2%.

At the same time, it's not a great comparison because Dudley is not a PF, should not play there, and usually hasn't. He'd be quite effective backing up the 2 and 3 for us; those are the positions he's mostly played in his over 16,000 NBA minutes.

I don't think Anderson will make us a better team, alas. But... we'll have to see. (If he's a wizard...)

Yep. I wanted Anderson for the Wizards several years ago, but a back injury and a personal tragedy (his girlfriend committed suicide) have reduced him to about average. In a conversation with a basketball writer recently, I made the same Anderson vs. Dudley comparison. Overall impact was similar last season -- Anderson is likely to cost a TON more, though.

I think Dudley can be used as an off-the-bench Forward -- splitting time between SF and PF (with the majority of his time coming at SF). I don't think he's quick enough to play SG much, however.

Nope, he isn't quick enough for the 2. But... I'd still say he's better there than at the 4 !!

He's a good player; I hope he comes back -- though I'm sure he'll cost more than $4m this time. Maybe Brooks will understand that he's not a 4.

[Ruzious]

If Duds costs some OTHER team more than 4 mil, I'll eat my hat.

I don't have a hat, but the sentiment is there.

[payitforward]

Right now, my boring, non-glamorous plan for the offseason would be to sign Biyombo to a long term contract (say, 4 years, 40M). Sign Quincy Acy for 2 years, $3M a year or so. Resign Sessions for 2 years at whatever he costs (maybe $5M per). And sign Sato. That gets us 2 deep at every position before factoring vet-minimum contracts and training camp invites:

PG Wall/Sessions
SG Beal/Sato
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Morris/Acy
C Gortat/Biyombo

Would probably need to add one more vet SF - maybe Alan Anderson (because he stole money last season). It would be nice to keep Garrett Temple around too. Would also need a vet-minimum 5th big man.

All in on those moves, Nate. But, at that price I'd give Acy more than 2 years. At that salary, he's likely to be easy to move if we need to.

There's no question we should sign Satoransky if we can -- it was a mistake to pick him, but lets get something out of it! Questions are how much does he cost, how long will it have to be, and does he turn out to be a good NBA player? Oh, and does he want to come this year?

We might be a better team if we made those moves. OTOH, we might not. A whole lot would depend on whether Beal actually improved significantly and stayed healthy, and whether Oubre starts to pan out. Satoransky would be an NBA rookie as well. Porter is terrific, but even with Acy, that team is very thin at the 2, 3 and 4.

[payitforward]

Lots of opinions about the smart things to do this off season. I was a political and national security person for a number of years so I like to look for the little indicators in plain view that will help me predict things. I think there's just about everything you need looking at three things:

1) All decisions will have to fit within the narrative that Ted "believes" he has told. I know lots of posters think that Ted has been inconsistent in that and that's probably true. BUT I don't think Ted thinks he's been inconsistent.

2) All decisions have to fit within the established "value system" that Ernie has shown over the years.

3) All decisions have to fit with what is good for and helps John Wall be successful and happy.

So how that all plays out obviously depends on a bunch of things outside of our control BUT here are some predictions based on using the above:

1) Beal will be resigned for the max or close to the max.
A Ted sees him as a core guy to the "plan."
B It's very rare for a conventional GM type to let a guy like him go and I think this off season will be very tough to force a sign and trade with so many teams with max cap space. I think a sign and trade might lose us cap space too. I think it's probably very complicated but if we sign him before we've capped out then how much space would we free up? If he signs for $20 mil with his Bird rights then we trade him how much $$ can we bring back? What are we left with?
C I think Wall really like playing with Beal and he fits well with him

2) ZERO chance Wiz decide to re set the rebuild. They're going to try and be a good playoff team next year.

3) Very little chance we will sign some name player to a one-year contract and go again after free agents next year unless we are rejected by virtually every target we have. I think the team is looking at a three year window with Wall, Beal, Gortat, Morris, Oubre, and Porter if we want to keep him.
A Watch Wall's exit interview. How many times did he say a big part of the problem this last year was 9 players on one year contracts? A bunch of times. I REALLY think they will try to avoid any core guys being on one year deals. They want guys bought in.

4) Who did John Wall say he'd like back? Dudley, Temple and Anderson (If he gets healthy). I'd be very surprised if none of these guys returned. He didn't say Sessions which was very telling to me. Another indicator that the expectation is that Sato will be joining the team.

5) Which leads to Sato will join the team.
A Vindicates the decision to draft him amongst all the other draft mistakes.
B Euro with great size and athleticism -- Ernie LOVES that type
C I have to think his style plays well off of Wall and provides better play making on the second team

6) I think there is about a 25% chance we sign a top tier type max guy (not you know who) but of the category of Horford, Batum, Parsons, Barnes, Whiteside, etc. More likely would be signing 3 mid major money guys - Sato and two others in the Biyombo, Ezeli, Teletovic. Maybe Motiejunas fits if his back is recovered. There are some good RFAs like Crabbe and Harkless of Portland or Powell of Dallas but I think they'll be hard to pry away. Guys like Bazemore, Tyler Johnson, Gerald Green, Plumlee are interesting too. I'm not really proposing any of these guys -- just using examples. I'm not trying to have a YODA loves this guy but hates this guy thing.

7) I think the way the market plays out means there's not too great a chance of signing a guy who is a lot better than one of our current projected starters. I'm not saying our starters are that good, just that a clear upgrade won't be that easy to sign. So I think we're more likely to go after VERY solid guys who are slated as backups, possibly with upside. I think what Portland did last year in free agency and how that turned out opened some eyes.

8) So it wouldn't surprise me at all if we ended up with the acquisitions being on the order of players like Sato, Teletovic, Plumlee, Dudley, Temple, Aaron White, Gerald Green/Bazemore. Something like that.

9) Worst #SoWizards nightmare? Jeff Green

Lots of thoughtful stuff here -- cool....

A couple of comments:
What Wall said in his exit interview has no bearing on Sato coming here. There are a lot of issues, and I'm sure we all hope they'll be resolved. But we didn't need what Wall said to know the Wizards would like to have him, and it doesn't make it more likely they do. Hope they do, but we can't act like it's locked in.

Your #9 is on the money. I think Green is our most likely signing.

[gambitx777]

Right now, my boring, non-glamorous plan for the offseason would be to sign Biyombo to a long term contract (say, 4 years, 40M). Sign Quincy Acy for 2 years, $3M a year or so. Resign Sessions for 2 years at whatever he costs (maybe $5M per). And sign Sato. That gets us 2 deep at every position before factoring vet-minimum contracts and training camp invites:

PG Wall/Sessions
SG Beal/Sato
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Morris/Acy
C Gortat/Biyombo

Would probably need to add one more vet SF - maybe Alan Anderson (because he stole money last season). It would be nice to keep Garrett Temple around too. Would also need a vet-minimum 5th big man.

I like that but can we make a change or two,
Instead of Acy, can we go and get Andrew Nicholson. Rebounds well and can hoot 3's is only 26. and instead of sessions (if he does not play ball) would you be ok giving that money to Noris cole, or Donald Sloan.Maybe sessions and one of those guys. Maybe a bit less money too 2.5-4 a year for Sloan and Cole. But I would love to put Ish SMith and Sato together! I would also be very interested in Signing Jordan Hamilton! I think he would be a great young back up wing player. If we get Biyombo, I would love to ad sims or deadmon behind him as insurance. I also want to resign Eddie.

[thinker07]

Lots of opinions about the smart things to do this off season. I was a political and national security person for a number of years so I like to look for the little indicators in plain view that will help me predict things. I think there's just about everything you need looking at three things:

Good post. A lot of ideas and possibilities. I like names like possibly under the radar guys such as Harkless. I'd like to see the Zards prioritize a rim protector and rebounder, maybe Ezeli or Mahimi. In fact, I'd go after Whiteside and worry later about his attitude or what to do with Gortat.

I'm surprised you didn't mention the hiring of Brooks upfront as one of the key factors--or "indicators in plain view." I don't think there is any way that Brooks takes the Zards job without assurances from Ted and EG that he'll have considerable say in personnel matters, especially given that he's taking over a team with only 5 guys under contract. Scottie's game plan will be a major factor in shaping what the Zards look like next season.

I didn't mention Brooks because while I 100% agree with you that he'll have substantial influence over the roster, I have no idea what kinds of players he would want. I don't know anything really about Brooks' preferences so I don't know how to use him in my analysis.

[thinker07]

Lots of opinions about the smart things to do this off season. I was a political and national security person for a number of years so I like to look for the little indicators in plain view that will help me predict things. I think there's just about everything you need looking at three things:

1) All decisions will have to fit within the narrative that Ted "believes" he has told. I know lots of posters think that Ted has been inconsistent in that and that's probably true. BUT I don't think Ted thinks he's been inconsistent.

2) All decisions have to fit within the established "value system" that Ernie has shown over the years.

3) All decisions have to fit with what is good for and helps John Wall be successful and happy.

So how that all plays out obviously depends on a bunch of things outside of our control BUT here are some predictions based on using the above:

1) Beal will be resigned for the max or close to the max.
A Ted sees him as a core guy to the "plan."
B It's very rare for a conventional GM type to let a guy like him go and I think this off season will be very tough to force a sign and trade with so many teams with max cap space. I think a sign and trade might lose us cap space too. I think it's probably very complicated but if we sign him before we've capped out then how much space would we free up? If he signs for $20 mil with his Bird rights then we trade him how much $$ can we bring back? What are we left with?
C I think Wall really like playing with Beal and he fits well with him

2) ZERO chance Wiz decide to re set the rebuild. They're going to try and be a good playoff team next year.

3) Very little chance we will sign some name player to a one-year contract and go again after free agents next year unless we are rejected by virtually every target we have. I think the team is looking at a three year window with Wall, Beal, Gortat, Morris, Oubre, and Porter if we want to keep him.
A Watch Wall's exit interview. How many times did he say a big part of the problem this last year was 9 players on one year contracts? A bunch of times. I REALLY think they will try to avoid any core guys being on one year deals. They want guys bought in.

4) Who did John Wall say he'd like back? Dudley, Temple and Anderson (If he gets healthy). I'd be very surprised if none of these guys returned. He didn't say Sessions which was very telling to me. Another indicator that the expectation is that Sato will be joining the team.

5) Which leads to Sato will join the team.
A Vindicates the decision to draft him amongst all the other draft mistakes.
B Euro with great size and athleticism -- Ernie LOVES that type
C I have to think his style plays well off of Wall and provides better play making on the second team

6) I think there is about a 25% chance we sign a top tier type max guy (not you know who) but of the category of Horford, Batum, Parsons, Barnes, Whiteside, etc. More likely would be signing 3 mid major money guys - Sato and two others in the Biyombo, Ezeli, Teletovic. Maybe Motiejunas fits if his back is recovered. There are some good RFAs like Crabbe and Harkless of Portland or Powell of Dallas but I think they'll be hard to pry away. Guys like Bazemore, Tyler Johnson, Gerald Green, Plumlee are interesting too. I'm not really proposing any of these guys -- just using examples. I'm not trying to have a YODA loves this guy but hates this guy thing.

7) I think the way the market plays out means there's not too great a chance of signing a guy who is a lot better than one of our current projected starters. I'm not saying our starters are that good, just that a clear upgrade won't be that easy to sign. So I think we're more likely to go after VERY solid guys who are slated as backups, possibly with upside. I think what Portland did last year in free agency and how that turned out opened some eyes.

8) So it wouldn't surprise me at all if we ended up with the acquisitions being on the order of players like Sato, Teletovic, Plumlee, Dudley, Temple, Aaron White, Gerald Green/Bazemore. Something like that.

9) Worst #SoWizards nightmare? Jeff Green

Lots of thoughtful stuff here -- cool....

A couple of comments:
What Wall said in his exit interview has no bearing on Sato coming here. There are a lot of issues, and I'm sure we all hope they'll be resolved. But we didn't need what Wall said to know the Wizards would like to have him, and it doesn't make it more likely they do. Hope they do, but we can't act like it's locked in.

Your #9 is on the money. I think Green is our most likely signing.

For me the relevance of Wall's comments are that it makes it less likely that Sessions would be returning. If Sessions isn't returning then to me that makes it a lot more likely that Sato would be coming over. Obviously the details have to be worked out. But the details are really only money and the role that Sato would have a chance to play for the Wiz. Both things are in the control of the Wiz. I'd guess that 3 years and $18 mil probably gets it done money wise (including buyout in there) and being able to be the 3rd guard with injury prone Beal sets up as a role that would seem to be sufficient to excite Sato.

[thinker07]

Right now, my boring, non-glamorous plan for the offseason would be to sign Biyombo to a long term contract (say, 4 years, 40M). Sign Quincy Acy for 2 years, $3M a year or so. Resign Sessions for 2 years at whatever he costs (maybe $5M per). And sign Sato. That gets us 2 deep at every position before factoring vet-minimum contracts and training camp invites:

PG Wall/Sessions
SG Beal/Sato
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Morris/Acy
C Gortat/Biyombo

Would probably need to add one more vet SF - maybe Alan Anderson (because he stole money last season). It would be nice to keep Garrett Temple around too. Would also need a vet-minimum 5th big man.

I don't think the Wiz would try to bring Sessions back AND get Sato. If Sato comes then I think he's the third guard. I think there's a decent chance that Temple returns as the 5th guard. So in my notion we're looking at needing a 4th guard. I think that slot gets filled more ideally with someone more athletic, more size, better defense, better shooting than Sessions. To me that means someone more like Gerald Green.

[payitforward]

Gerald Green? No thank you. Temple over Gerald Green -- every day and twice on Sundays. Or... are we going to hold a dunk contest? Nah, I didn't think so.

You think that if we do manage to bring Satoransky over, who's never played in the league, we should just assume there's no need for a backup point guard other than him?

[DCZards]

Right now, my boring, non-glamorous plan for the offseason would be to sign Biyombo to a long term contract (say, 4 years, 40M). Sign Quincy Acy for 2 years, $3M a year or so. Resign Sessions for 2 years at whatever he costs (maybe $5M per). And sign Sato. That gets us 2 deep at every position before factoring vet-minimum contracts and training camp invites:

PG Wall/Sessions
SG Beal/Sato
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Morris/Acy
C Gortat/Biyombo

Would probably need to add one more vet SF - maybe Alan Anderson (because he stole money last season). It would be nice to keep Garrett Temple around too. Would also need a vet-minimum 5th big man.

I don't think the Wiz would try to bring Sessions back AND get Sato. If Sato comes then I think he's the third guard. I think there's a decent chance that Temple returns as the 5th guard. So in my notion we're looking at needing a 4th guard. I think that slot gets filled more ideally with someone more athletic, more size, better defense, better shooting than Sessions. To me that means someone more like Gerald Green.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Temple back. He'd be decent insurance in the event that Beal (assuming he's re-signed) gets injured again and Sato struggles as a raw, unproven NBA player. Plus Temple play some PG, if necessary.

[payitforward]

Right now, my boring, non-glamorous plan for the offseason would be to sign Biyombo to a long term contract (say, 4 years, 40M). Sign Quincy Acy for 2 years, $3M a year or so. Resign Sessions for 2 years at whatever he costs (maybe $5M per). And sign Sato. That gets us 2 deep at every position before factoring vet-minimum contracts and training camp invites:

PG Wall/Sessions
SG Beal/Sato
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Morris/Acy
C Gortat/Biyombo

Would probably need to add one more vet SF - maybe Alan Anderson (because he stole money last season). It would be nice to keep Garrett Temple around too. Would also need a vet-minimum 5th big man.

I don't think the Wiz would try to bring Sessions back AND get Sato. If Sato comes then I think he's the third guard. I think there's a decent chance that Temple returns as the 5th guard. So in my notion we're looking at needing a 4th guard. I think that slot gets filled more ideally with someone more athletic, more size, better defense, better shooting than Sessions. To me that means someone more like Gerald Green.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Temple back. He'd be decent insurance in the event that Beal (assuming he's re-signed) gets injured again and Sato struggles as a raw, unproven NBA player. Plus Temple play some PG, if necessary.

Agreed -- to me, it's just a matter of whether someone offers Sessions more $ than Ernie can bring himself to pay. In any case, we may have to decide on Sessions before we know whether Satoransky is coming.

[thinker07]

Gerald Green? No thank you. Temple over Gerald Green -- every day and twice on Sundays. Or... are we going to hold a dunk contest? Nah, I didn't think so.

You think that if we do manage to bring Satoransky over, who's never played in the league, we should just assume there's no need for a backup point guard other than him?

In my discussions about other players we might acquire, I'm not specifically proposing people. I'm using Gerald Green more like a "type" of player. Green is very athletic, can spot start, has had a full season playing where he shot well from 3, smart player who has played on very well coached teams, good size. It doesn't have to be him specifically but those are the kinds of qualities I would think would be good. I'm not enough of a stat guy to really get into who's better OJ Mayo or Jared Bayless type of discussion.

EDIT - add answer to your other question

I think the notion would be Sato as backup PG with Temple behind him. If you're going to pay to bring Sato over then it's because you think he can backup Wall. At that point you need a better shooting, athletic, defensive 4th guard than Sessions would be

[thinker07]

I don't think the Wiz would try to bring Sessions back AND get Sato. If Sato comes then I think he's the third guard. I think there's a decent chance that Temple returns as the 5th guard. So in my notion we're looking at needing a 4th guard. I think that slot gets filled more ideally with someone more athletic, more size, better defense, better shooting than Sessions. To me that means someone more like Gerald Green.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Temple back. He'd be decent insurance in the event that Beal (assuming he's re-signed) gets injured again and Sato struggles as a raw, unproven NBA player. Plus Temple play some PG, if necessary.

Agreed -- to me, it's just a matter of whether someone offers Sessions more $ than Ernie can bring himself to pay. In any case, we may have to decide on Sessions before we know whether Satoransky is coming.

I think Sato has made it clear he wants to play in the NBA if the money is right AND if he's getting a significant role. I think resigning Sessions early makes it tougher to sign Sato. He has a great contract and situation in Spain. He's in the driver's seat. I just don't think he'll really want to come over facing the possibility of fighting for backup scraps with Sessions. And if we don't think that Sato is a big upgrade over Sessions then why would we be that eager to pay big money to bring him over?

[pcbothwel]

He has said many times that he wants to play and compete in the NBA. He also knows that the Wiz will look to compete next year and there is a great role he can slide into as another ball handler that can initiate the offense.

BTW, Even in his new extension he'll be making about 2.5M. He can almost double that here and thats just the first 2-3 years. After that, He'll be 27 and prime for a 10M per.

[Earth2Ted]

Chandler Parsons would be an interesting choice for that "shooter/recruiter" position.

I could see him getting us to the brink a signing a Hassan Whiteside- and then seeing him slip back to the Heat in a last minute change of heart.

[LyricalRico]

Not sure folks can keep putting Biyombo in offseason scenarios where he comes here to be a backup, even a highly paid one. He's going to get starting offers somewhere. Wouldn't be surprised if the Raptors consider bringing him back and seeing what they can get for JV.

Probably more realistic to try to absorb a guy like Koufos to split time with Gortat.

[Kanyewest]

Biyombo is playing better than Tristan Thompson so he might get similar money.

[fishercob]

Not sure folks can keep putting Biyombo in offseason scenarios where he comes here to be a backup, even a highly paid one. He's going to get starting offers somewhere. Wouldn't be surprised if the Raptors consider bringing him back and seeing what they can get for JV.

Probably more realistic to try to absorb a guy like Koufos to split time with Gortat.

Agreed. The ship on Biyombo has sailed. We had out chance to go after him last summer and missed it. It's an instructive lesson, but not one I expect Ernie to learn from.

Biyombo is going to get offered big money to start in Portland, Dallas, perhaps Houston. Valanciunus may get traded one of those places if Toronto opts to throw big money at BB to keep him.