2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

Post #321 » by **LyricalRico** » Tue May 24, 2016 3:00 pm

Moving on from Biyombo, what are the options for backup C? Trading for a guy like Koufos or Pachulia is an option. Or try to find a value in free agency, maybe a guy like Mozgov that has been good in the past but his value has recently dropped.

Post #322 » by **nate33** » Tue May 24, 2016 3:15 pm

LyricalRico wrote:Moving on from Biyombo, what are the options for backup C? Trading for a guy like Koufos or Pachulia is an option. Or try to find a value in free agency, maybe a guy like Mozgov that has been good in the past but his value has recently dropped.

Mozgov is a great suggestion if he can be obtained cheaply.

thricethefun · Post #323 » by **thricethefun** » Tue May 24, 2016 3:46 pm

nate33 wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:Moving on from Biyombo, what are the options for backup C? Trading for a guy like Koufos or Pachulia is an option. Or try to find a value in free agency, maybe a guy like Mozgov that has been good in the past but his value has recently dropped.

Mozgov is a great suggestion if he can be obtained cheaply.

He's kind of sucked this year. Do you think we could get him for 6-8 mil?

Post #324 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Tue May 24, 2016 4:00 pm

Mozgov rated about average this season. He turns 30 before next season. I don't see him moving the needle much for the Wizards. He's a guy I'd be happy for them to sign IF they've acquired an elite producer or two and are able to obtain him cheaply for depth.

Kanyewest · Post #325 » by **Kanyewest** » Tue May 24, 2016 4:38 pm

LyricalRico wrote:Not sure folks can keep putting Biyombo in offseason scenarios where he comes here to be a backup, even a highly paid one. He's going to get starting offers somewhere. Wouldn't be surprised if the Raptors consider bringing him back and seeing what they can get for JV.

Probably more realistic to try to absorb a guy like Koufos to split time with Gortat.

Biyombo is an unrestricted free agent so he could be had, but it will probably take something close to a max contract to lure him away.

Post #326 » by **LyricalRico** » Tue May 24, 2016 4:47 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:Not sure folks can keep putting Biyombo in offseason scenarios where he comes here to be a backup, even a highly paid one. He's going to get starting offers somewhere. Wouldn't be surprised if the Raptors consider bringing him back and seeing what they can get for JV.

Probably more realistic to try to absorb a guy like Koufos to split time with Gortat.

Biyombo is an unrestricted free agent so he could be had, but it will probably take something close to a max contract to lure him away.

Oh yeah, he's absolutely available. Just saying that most folks that have made recent posts about signing him have done it with the intent that he would be Gortat's backup. Even if we were willing to overpay, why come here when he could start somewhere else?

Now if there's a scenario where we're replacing Gortat with Biyombo, then that's different. But if we're going to do that, I'd still prefer Whiteside since he's bigger and probably has more offensive upside for not much more money.

MyLifeIsADream · Post #327 » by **MyLifeIsADream** » Tue May 24, 2016 5:14 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:Mozgov rated about average this season. He turns 30 before next season. I don't see him moving the needle much for the Wizards. He's a guy I'd be happy for them to sign IF they've acquired an elite producer or two and are able to obtain him cheaply for depth.

Mozgov went from starter to bench warmer with Cavs because of his defense, not because he couldn't put up decent counting stats. Tristan Thompson isn't a great defender by any means but at least he's active and is a solid pick & roll defender.

I'm sure Mozgov would be available for cheap, but the free agency market is flooded with available centers and certainly some of those guys will likely fall through the cracks and would offer more defensively than Mozgov.

pcbothwel · Post #328 » by **pcbothwel** » Tue May 24, 2016 5:22 pm

LyricalRico wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:Not sure folks can keep putting Biyombo in offseason scenarios where he comes here to be a backup, even a highly paid one. He's going to get starting offers somewhere. Wouldn't be surprised if the Raptors consider bringing him back and seeing what they can get for JV.

Probably more realistic to try to absorb a guy like Koufos to split time with Gortat.

Biyombo is an unrestricted free agent so he could be had, but it will probably take something close to a max contract to lure him away.

Oh yeah, he's absolutely available. Just saying that most folks that have made recent posts about signing him have done it with the intent that he would be Gortat's backup. Even if we were willing to overpay, why come here when he could start somewhere else?

Now if there's a scenario where we're replacing Gortat with Biyombo, then that's different. But if we're going to do that, I'd still prefer Whiteside since he's bigger and probably has more offensive upside for not much more money.

Thats where Im at Rico. Would you rather have Biyombo for 4/64-70M or Whiteside for 4/98M. I think Whiteside is the better bet.

Post #329 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Tue May 24, 2016 5:38 pm

MyLifeIsADream wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:Mozgov rated about average this season. He turns 30 before next season. I don't see him moving the needle much for the Wizards. He's a guy I'd be happy for them to sign IF they've acquired an elite producer or two and are able to obtain him cheaply for depth.

Mozgov went from starter to bench warmer with Cavs because of his defense, not because he couldn't put up decent counting stats. Tristan Thompson isn't a great defender by any means but at least he's active and is a solid pick & roll defender.

I'm sure Mozgov would be available for cheap, but the free agency market is flooded with available centers and certainly some of those guys will likely fall through the cracks and would offer more defensively than Mozgov.

Yep, his subpar defense shows up in my metric (which includes defense), which is why he rated about average overall. Better defense would have boosted his rating, and probably his playing time.

Post #330 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Tue May 24, 2016 6:13 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:
Biyombo is an unrestricted free agent so he could be had, but it will probably take something close to a max contract to lure him away.

Oh yeah, he's absolutely available. Just saying that most folks that have made recent posts about signing him have done it with the intent that he would be Gortat's backup. Even if we were willing to overpay, why come here when he could start somewhere else?

Now if there's a scenario where we're replacing Gortat with Biyombo, then that's different. But if we're going to do that, I'd still prefer Whiteside since he's bigger and probably has more offensive upside for not much more money.

Thats where Im at Rico. Would you rather have Biyombo for 4/64-70M or Whiteside for 4/98M. I think Whiteside is the better bet.

Agree with both you guys, and fish, who correctly pointed out that the time to make a move for Biyombo was last year.

It's worth keeping in mind that Biyombo was good, but still basically average during the regular season. He's been AWESOME for a handful of games in the playoffs. Nobody was talking about him as the second coming of Ben Wallace in games 1 and 2 of the series.

80sballboy · Post #331 » by **80sballboy** » Tue May 24, 2016 7:29 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:
Oh yeah, he's absolutely available. Just saying that most folks that have made recent posts about signing him have done it with the intent that he would be Gortat's backup. Even if we were willing to overpay, why come here when he could start somewhere else?

Now if there's a scenario where we're replacing Gortat with Biyombo, then that's different. But if we're going to do that, I'd still prefer Whiteside since he's bigger and probably has more offensive upside for not much more money.

Thats where Im at Rico. Would you rather have Biyombo for 4/64-70M or Whiteside for 4/98M. I think Whiteside is the better bet.

Agree with both you guys, and fish, who correctly pointed out that the time to make a move for Biyombo was last year.

It's worth keeping in mind that Biyombo was good, but still basically average during the regular season. He's been AWESOME for a handful of games in the playoffs. Nobody was talking about him as the second coming of Ben Wallace in games 1 and 2 of the series.

Yes, Biyombo is going to get overpaid but he's been stepping up with Valanciunas out. Some guys respond better as starters.
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/5/24/11606034/bismack-biyombo-free-agent-nba-playoffs-toronto-raptors

Post #332 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Tue May 24, 2016 8:02 pm

80sballboy wrote:
Yes, Biyombo is going to get overpaid but he's been stepping up with Valanciunas out. Some guys respond better as starters.
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/5/24/11606034/bismack-biyombo-free-agent-nba-playoffs-toronto-raptors

This is kinda like how folks reacted to Beal's playoffs. Biyombo's big games look frigging awesome, and could lead to the conclusion that he is better as a starter. But, he has some bad games since becoming a starter, and those might lead to a different conclusion.

I just ran my simple PPA estimator (call it ePPA) on his playoffs game log. Before he became a starter, I had him with an ePPA of 109. Looking ONLY at his time as a starter in the playoffs, I have him at 130. Which is good, but definitely not max salary territory.

I looked for a trend of good performances, but it's just not there. His game to game performance is all over the place since becoming the starter. Here's his ePPA for each game since becoming the starter:

243 L @MIA
93 W MIA
34 L @MIA
180 W MIA
168 L @CLE
32 L @CLE
213 W CLE
71 W CLE

None of those games include his best game of the postseason -- the 10 point, 16 rebound (in just 23.5 minutes) off the bench in game 5 against Indiana. That one rated a 267.

Post #333 » by **Ruzious** » Tue May 24, 2016 8:30 pm

If we want to go bargain basement for a backup center/PF, I'd look at Jarnell Stokes - who I believe is a UFA. He was a high 2nd rounder in 2014 and is still just 22 - younger than some of the folks we're looking at to be undrafted in this year's draft. He did very well in the D League. And if my memory is right, Doc liked him.

Jay81 · Post #334 » by **Jay81** » Wed May 25, 2016 3:02 pm

LOL...this playoff series is a diaster. Durant is going to win a title and no way would he leave OKC

Post #335 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Wed May 25, 2016 3:25 pm

Ruzious wrote:If we want to go bargain basement for a backup center/PF, I'd look at Jarnell Stokes - who I believe is a UFA. He was a high 2nd rounder in 2014 and is still just 22 - younger than some of the folks we're looking at to be undrafted in this year's draft. He did very well in the D League. And if my memory is right, Doc liked him.

Stokes performed well in the D-League. I didn't do a workup on him in YODA (I didn't do much with that year's draft), but as I look at him...odd stuff shows up. Like, from 2013 to 2014 measurements of his standing reach dropped by two inches from 2013 to 2014, his height dropped by an inch, yet his wingspan got longer. His vertical leap was terrific, which is fairly unusual for a guy of his build. And he came up as a slow runner, but with good lateral agility.

His numbers in the areas that typically are good indicators of athleticism aren't very impressive. Just 53% from 2pt range his junior year with fairly low steal and block numbers. He had about the same number of turnovers and assists.

Had I evaluated him in that draft, I'd have had him in the range of a late 1st or early 2nd rounder. His style of play -- an interior PF -- is out of fashion in today's game. Still, I concur with you that he could be a bargain reserve big.

pcbothwel · Post #336 » by **pcbothwel** » Wed May 25, 2016 3:42 pm

Jay81 wrote:LOL...this playoff series is a diaster. Durant is going to win a title and no way would he leave OKC

Yeah. He might as well sign the 1 and 1 contract right now, because he has to see this through with Westbrook. I still think if Presti was smart (Which he is) he would look to move Ibaka this offseason. You cant have KD, Westbrook, and Ibaka all FA in 2017.

payitforward · Post #337 » by **payitforward** » Wed May 25, 2016 4:05 pm

Well, we can't trade for a backup Center, as Rico suggests, because we have nothing to trade. We have 5 guys under contract.

I liked Stokes the year he went in the draft, but I'm not sure he's really a Center. Still... we need a 4 as well, don't we? So who cares.

But the most obvious candidate is Hickson, who has been a pretty good player over his career and is still pretty young. And will be cheap.

Post #338 » by **LyricalRico** » Wed May 25, 2016 4:16 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Jay81 wrote:LOL...this playoff series is a diaster. Durant is going to win a title and no way would he leave OKC

Yeah. He might as well sign the 1 and 1 contract right now, because he has to see this through with Westbrook. I still think if Presti was smart (Which he is) he would look to move Ibaka this offseason. You cant have KD, Westbrook, and Ibaka all FA in 2017.

Roberson and (more importantly) Adams will also be RFA in 2017, so even with the rising cap they would still be paying a huge tax bill if they kept everyone. But IMO that's all the more reason to let it ride for one more run next season. If they get a ring this year, they can try to repeat next season and then let the chips fall where they may in 2017.

Post #339 » by **nate33** » Wed May 25, 2016 4:18 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:Stokes performed well in the D-League. I didn't do a workup on him in YODA (I didn't do much with that year's draft), but as I look at him...odd stuff shows up. Like, from 2013 to 2014 measurements of his standing reach dropped by two inches from 2013 to 2014, his height dropped by an inch, yet his wingspan got longer. His vertical leap was terrific, which is fairly unusual for a guy of his build. And he came up as a slow runner, but with good lateral agility.

Perhaps he tanked the standing reach Harrison Barnes style in order to goose his vertical leap measurement.

Post #340 » by **nate33** » Wed May 25, 2016 4:21 pm

payitforward wrote:Well, we can't trade for a backup Center, as Rico suggests, because we have nothing to trade. We have 5 guys under contract.

I liked Stokes the year he went in the draft, but I'm not sure he's really a Center. Still... we need a 4 as well, don't we? So who cares.

But the most obvious candidate is Hickson, who has been a pretty good player over his career and is still pretty young. And will be cheap.

We got Hickson off of waivers. I wonder if that means he'll be available for the vet minimum - which is a lot better than signing him for $3M a year or so because you can sign vet minimum guys after exhausting all of your cap room.

The question is, does nobody want Hickson at all? Or is simply that nobody wanted him late in the season last year because he wasn't good enough to play on a contender but he got in the way of developing youngsters on tanking teams.