Official #1 pick thread

[CoreyGallagher]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/seantribe/status/740626259311362050[/tweet]

It was about the shoe deal. Simmons liked this tweet.

[Agnostifarian]

Another more subtle advantage of taking Simmons over Ingram is that we hold the LA pick next year. Ingram is projectably good, but Simmons is much more likely to be an instant impact player. For the next year Ingram likely makes LA incrementally better and is not a FA draw yet. He might get there in time, but for next year he and the overpriced FA's they sign will likely keep them out of the top three, but not catapult them into the playoffs, giving us another lottery pick in a very (allegedly) deep draft, while our own improvement is partly counterbalanced by the possible Sacto pick swap.

We take the potential superstar and help our draft positionings for next year. Win-win.

Skates, you just tipped me into the Simmons' camp. Ben will definitely be more impactful as a rookie. We can legitimately move beyond the Tank Wars since we have SAC and LAL representing' for us. Thank you again, Sam!

Ben is our PG on offense. He has elite length and strength for the position. Now, we build a roster that can switch everything on defense, run and shoot the rock. Brett Brown will be happy and so will we.

[oddwolfhooligan]

I've explained twice now why Simmons is far from a sure-thing and no one has been able to break my points down and explain to me where I'm off-base about Simmons as a prospect. I'm hoping someone will do that here because I really want to be able to be excited about Simmons. As far as I'm concerned, these are his pros and cons:

Pros

- Great vision and passing accuracy, willing passer
- Elite scorer and passer in transition
- Very good rebounder
- Quick hands that can be very disruptive on defense
- Elite speed and quickness for a 4
- Soft touch around the basket
- Good size for a 4
- Nice ability to change speeds
- Good body control
- Very good at passing out of the post
- Makes a few nice hustle plays on offense every game with his athleticism

Cons

- Terrible shooter
- Questionable drive/competitiveness, didn't demand the ball as much as you'd like in the half-court
- Slightly below-average length for PF
- Struggles to consistently find ways to score in the half-court
- Struggles to penetrate against capable defenders in the half-court, relies on straight-line drives, but doesn't have a great first-step to get by his man
- Questionable ability to drive and dish, which is actually something you'd think he'd excel at. In the 7 or so LSU games I've watched, he rarely showed the ability to get by his man and then kick it to the open teammate. This is a big reason why he was so much less successful at facilitating in the half-court.
- A lot of his assists in the half-court consisted of him whipping the ball across the court to one of his teammates for quick 3s. This won't work nearly as well in the NBA with defenders who can both play the passing lanes better and close-out much faster.
- Scoring repertoire lacked polish and Simmons mostly relied on bully-ball both when driving to the hoop and posting up.
- In just about every game I watched where Simmons was guarded by a player who wasn't significantly weaker than him, he played soft and avoided contact when being guarded by said player.
- Lackluster on defense. When watching him play, it's so obvious that he mostly just cares about getting steals and blocks. He gambles all the time(sometimes at very inopportune times) and plays defense with much less intensity when he isn't in a position where he can get a block or steal. Also, for a supposed high IQ player, he makes a lot of boneheaded decisions on defense.
- Good ball-handler for a 4, but not exactly above average for someone who's in charge of running the whole offense


As you can see, there's a lot of good but there are also a lot of red flags, far more than you want to see out of a supposed sure-fire super star. And I get that players improve and Simmons isn't done developing as a prospect, but a lot of his weaknesses are issues that are going to be pretty challenging to improve upon. So please, I'd love for anyone in the "Simmons is a sure thing" camp to explain to me why I'm wrong and how Simmons projects as a better NBA player than I'm giving him credit for. I mean that sincerely, I badly want to get excited about this pick.

[Skates]

Let's not forget the fertile international markets we will be tapping into with the all-world rookie trio of Saric (Croatia), Embiid (Cameroon) and Simmons (Australia). That's three new continents going on line for viewership of Sixers' game feeds!! We will be the Benntton Franklins of the NBA! (-;

[Mik317]

Simmons has a pretty great first step actually.

[oddwolfhooligan]

Simmons has a pretty great first step actually.

I don't know if I'd call it great. I think it's certainly above average for an NBA PF, but it's not good enough to make up for the fact that defenders are going to be sagging off of him until he proves he has a respectable jumper.

But either way, I should've been more clear. The con was less focused on his first step and more focused on the fact that it's hard to rely on straight-line drives in order to penetrate when defenders can sag off on you and you don't have an elite first-step.

With a respectable jumper, his first step is fine. Not elite for the pro level, but good. Without one, his first step won't be good enough to allow him to consistently blow by a sagging defender(which is how pretty much anyone will guard him next year).

[Mik317]

Simmons is 6'10 240 and is rather strong all things considered. Most guys who will guard him probably won't be able to keep up and those that will won't be able to match his strength. The extra spacing and ideally having more than one shooter on the floor like LSU failed to do (Hornsby getting hurt coincided with the team imploding) will also make things difficult for defenses to just play off of him. The NBA also doesn't exactly allow zone. Again Simmons will definitely need to get a jumper. I am not ignoring that...but if you are taking him number 1 then you must feel like he can fix that aspect of his game. For all of this talk about how some people have their heads in the sand about Simmons' flaws, it constantly seems like those against the pick think it is impossible for him to improve them. It reminds me of the Pro and Anti Hinkie **** in which those against Hinkie were a lot more cultish than the ones they constantly ragged on.

Simmons has flaws. No ****. Even the best prospects have issues (LeBron's jumper. AD can't stay healthy. Durant still gets bodied at times). No one will ever be completely flawless and perfect. This draft also just isn't that type of draft in which a guy is completely flawless is just sitting that at number 1 (Towns is probably the closest to being flawless in my eyes in recent years actually). Simmons flaws are; his jumper, his defense (effort mainly but other things too), his attitude, and fit concerns. All very valid things. If Simmons never fixes his jumper, continues to be a lazy bum on defense while making it hard for us to build a team...then yes we are probably better off going elsewhere. But taking this overly negative outlook to a guy, is unfair and can be done with any prospect. What if Ingram never adds enough weight? What if his jumper doesn't translate. What if he never gains to go to guy creation skills? Its possible that happens. But I imagine people wouldn't exactly find that to be fair, would they?

The way I approach things w/ Simmons is as follows. His shooting flaws. They can be fixed. Yes we have seen the downside to this (Iggy, Turner, MCW , Thad) but sans Thad (who eventually became a solid shooter btw), Simmons is younger,more skilled or more athletic, and more important than any of those guys. That gives him a longer time to learn these things, his size will allow him to still be effective via floaters and such from mid range, and he will be more of a mismatch. Brett is also pretty dang good at teaching dudes how to shoot. MCW so far seems to be the outlier really. Grant regressed last year but is still better than he was at Syracuse. Okafor, Noel and Embiid also have made strides. Simmons rebuild isn't even as drastic as those will be. It is a valid concern but there is some optimism too.

His defense. Another issue for sure. But look at it this way. He played the 5 in a zone at LSU and they couldn't afford for him to get in foul trouble...so he took plays off. Guys do this a lot when they are super important to their team. Here ideally he won't be the last line of defense (Noel or Embiid or whoever at the 5). I also don't think he lacks length...he's not freakish like Ingram but he's not TRex arming it either. He will have to be more of a handsy type defender for sure, he has quick hands. The Effort is worrying but you have to chalk that up to youth and never needing to really lock in ever due to being a superior athlete most of the time. This is an adjustment most guys will have to make.

The attitude one. Simmons is a diva probably. No explaining this one away beyond the fact that dude has had next for a while. It getting to his head isn't surprising. Hopefully he knows he needs to work to become great which if he wants to live up to his idol LeBron, he will need to work his ass off. I also will say, its good he's coming in now to a place that will probably not tolerate as much **** as they have the last few years and I suspect vets are coming.

The fit issue hits close to home. It was a big reason I was against the Jah pick...so I am not going to be a hypocrate and say it doesn't matter. It does. Having a guy who can only work if he is the man is scary...because if he can't be the man then we are ****. I don't know if Simmons is that kind of player but ideally since he is all about passing and such, role player Simmons isn't as tough of a fit. The negative comps to Odom and Diaw come to mind....both of these guys are role players. So it can work but yeah if he is just average it is a tough sell to have an average guy pound the rock all the time.

So I get it..but I think people need to look at the optimistic side of things...none of us can tell the future...so who knows how it goes. Perhaps Simmons becomes the next T-Mac outta nowhere or some ****....who knows. But have some hope...have some faith. Its all we got right now.

[LongLiveHinkie]

I don't know if I'd call Simmons a terrible shooter as much as a guy who doesn't shoot. He could be a good shooter for all we know, he just doesn't do it.

Also, I think the openness of the NBA will help him score in the half court.

[Kobblehead]

Can we just start collectively referring to Ben Simmons as a F?

Calling him a PF has done nothing but confuse people into thinking he's a post player.

[oddwolfhooligan]

Simmons is 6'10 240 and is rather strong all things considered. Most guys who will guard him probably won't be able to keep up and those that will won't be able to match his strength. The extra spacing and ideally having more than one shooter on the floor like LSU failed to do (Hornsby getting hurt coincided with the team imploding) will also make things difficult for defenses to just play off of him. The NBA also doesn't exactly allow zone. Again Simmons will definitely need to get a jumper. I am not ignoring that...but if you are taking him number 1 then you must feel like he can fix that aspect of his game. For all of this talk about how some people have their heads in the sand about Simmons' flaws, it constantly seems like those against the pick think it is impossible for him to improve them. It reminds me of the Pro and Anti Hinkie **** in which those against Hinkie were a lot more cultish than the ones they constantly ragged on.

Simmons has flaws. No ****. Even the best prospects have issues (LeBron's jumper. AD can't stay healthy. Durant still gets bodied at times). No one will ever be completely flawless and perfect. This draft also just isn't that type of draft in which a guy is completely flawless is just sitting that at number 1 (Towns is probably the closest to being flawless in my eyes in recent years actually). Simmons flaws are; his jumper, his defense (effort mainly but other things too), his attitude, and fit concerns. All very valid things. If Simmons never fixes his jumper, continues to be a lazy bum on defense while making it hard for us to build a team...then yes we are probably better off going elsewhere. But taking this overly negative outlook to a guy, is unfair and can be done with any prospect. What if Ingram never adds enough weight? What if his jumper doesn't translate. What if he never gains to go to guy creation skills? Its possible that happens. But I imagine people wouldn't exactly find that to be fair, would they?

The way I approach things w/ Simmons is as follows. His shooting flaws. They can be fixed. Yes we have seen the downside to this (Iggy, Turner, MCW , Thad) but sans Thad (who eventually became a solid shooter btw), Simmons is younger,more skilled or more athletic, and more important than any of those guys. That gives him a longer time to learn these things, his size will allow him to still be effective via floaters and such from mid range, and he will be more of a mismatch. Brett is also pretty dang good at teaching dudes how to shoot. MCW so far seems to be the outlier really. Grant regressed last year but is still better than he was at Syracuse. Okafor, Noel and Embiid also have made strides. Simmons rebuild isn't even as drastic as those will be. It is a valid concern but there is some optimism too.

His defense. Another issue for sure. But look at it this way. He played the 5 in a zone at LSU and they couldn't afford for him to get in foul trouble...so he took plays off. Guys do this a lot when they are super important to their team. Here ideally he won't be the last line of defense (Noel or Embiid or whoever at the 5). I also don't think he lacks length...he's not freakish like Ingram but he's not TRex arming it either. He will have to be more of a handsy type defender for sure, he has quick hands. The Effort is worrying but you have to chalk that up to youth and never needing to really lock in ever due to being a superior athlete most of the time. This is an adjustment most guys will have to make.

The attitude one. Simmons is a diva probably. No explaining this one away beyond the fact that dude has had next for a while. It getting to his head isn't surprising. Hopefully he knows he needs to work to become great which if he wants to live up to his idol LeBron, he will need to work his ass off. I also will say, its good he's coming in now to a place that will probably not tolerate as much **** as they have the last few years and I suspect vets are coming.

The fit issue hits close to home. It was a big reason I was against the Jah pick...so I am not going to be a hypocrate and say it doesn't matter. It does. Having a guy who can only work if he is the man is scary...because if he can't be the man then we are ****. I don't know if Simmons is that kind of player but ideally since he is all about passing and such, role player Simmons isn't as tough of a fit. The negative comps to Odom and Diaw come to mind....both of these guys are role players. So it can work but yeah if he is just average it is a tough sell to have an average guy pound the rock all the time.

So I get it..but I think people need to look at the optimistic side of things...none of us can tell the future...so who knows how it goes. Perhaps Simmons becomes the next T-Mac outta nowhere or some ****....who knows. But have some hope...have some faith. Its all we got right now.

Good post. Thanks for taking the time to make a long and thoughtful response.

I absolutely understand that Simmons isn't a finished product and that everyone has issues they need to work on coming into the league. I don't intend to indicate otherwise. Like everyone else, I'm just doing my best to guess what weaknesses are likely to go away and what weaknesses aren't likely to go away and a few of Simmons issues give me serious room for concern—mainly what I perceive to be a lack of innate toughness, his jump shot, and his struggles in the half-court(this last issue being something that too many of his supporters fail to take into account).

As far as toughness goes, we cannot underestimate how important it is for our franchise player to be mentally tough. When you're competing to be at the top of the highest level, the guy leading your team has to be tough as nails. History has shown this repeatedly with few exceptions. Teams and players face a lot of adversity on their way to a title. The guy on the court who's leading the ship needs to be able to withstand that and Simmons hasn't shown that he is mentally tough enough to do that. This begs the question of whether or not mental toughness is something that can be learned. Well, imo, it's not—guys either have it or they don't. If that's the case, this is a big problem for Simmons to have if he's our franchise player.

Moving on to Ben's struggles with shooting and performing at a high level in the half-court, we'll just have to wait and see. Obviously jump shooting is something that can improve in theory, but actual history shows that more often than not, the prospect who struggles to shoot coming into the league struggles to shoot for his entire career. Yes, there are exceptions, but it's not easy. Also, the guys who do improve usually have insane work ethics paired with tremendous mental toughness and focus(i.e. Kawhi Leonard).

As for his struggles in the half court, I really don't know what to make of them. On one hand, he's so naturally talented that I want to think he'll figure it out. On the other hand, watching Simmons in transition compared to watching him in the half-court is like night and day. When he's in the half-court and facing a set defense, he's FAR less aggressive, way less creative with his decisions, way less consistent as a scorer, moderately less cerebral as a facilitator, and as a whole, he just plays less confident in the half-court than in transition. Again, I assume this is something that can be improved upon and I'm hoping that a big reason for this issue was because LSU's offense was so stagnant and uninspired. I just worry about this problem since it's absolutely mandatory that Simmons must be able to consistently create for both himself and others in the half court if we're gonna rely on him as "the guy."

[freshie2]

Love the haters...trying to support a subjective feeling with subjective observations and absolutes. The only question lies above his shoulders...he's a freak package otherwise.

[76ciology]

Leaning towards Simmons.

Halfcourt issue:
Might help playing with more talented player(s) where there's less defensive pressure at him. Nevertheless, bullyball won't work and you see that LBJ struggles to do it in the finals.

Flaws:
everyone has flaws, but problem IMO is Simmons' flaws are two of the most valuable things in the league, shooting and defense (rim protection in particular). I leaning towards Simmons improving his shooting and defending opposing SFs in the NBA.

[MGB8]

Simmons has a size/strength advantage at the 3 while having better than adequate speed and quickness.

At the 4, he's... Meh. Is he going to outsize or outquick Ibaka? Draymond Green (meaningfully)? Porzingis? Blake Griffin? Myles Turner? Paul Milsap? Derrick Favors? Manimal Faried? Amir Johnson?

As a 4, he doesn't give you any real mismatch advantages against most opponents, with any speed advantage over plodders like Z-Bo or Scola or Love undone by his lack of shooting.

If he can't play SF... then he's a pretty terrible prospect for a #1 overall pick.

[76ciology]

Simmons has a size/strength advantage at the 3 while having better than adequate speed and quickness.

At the 4, he's... Meh. Is he going to outsize or outquick Ibaka? Draymond Green (meaningfully)? Porzingis? Blake Griffin? Myles Turner? Paul Milsap? Derrick Favors? Manimal Faried? Amir Johnson?

As a 4, he doesn't give you any real mismatch advantages against most opponents, with any speed advantage over plodders like Z-Bo or Scola or Love undone by his lack of shooting.

If he can't play SF... then he's a pretty terrible prospect for a #1 overall pick.

From what I've watched, the only thing stopping him to play SF is his shooting and/or spacing issues. He definitely has the quickness and skillset to play SF.

[Wilfried]

He's going to be a tweener, in the positive way

But he will need to learn to shoot to become a star.

Otherwise he will be a very good role player, but that's too bad when you are the #1 pick

[anubis0713]

Stolen off Reddit
Looks like there is still a fair bit of weight he can throw on.

[Ericb5]

Simmons has a size/strength advantage at the 3 while having better than adequate speed and quickness.

At the 4, he's... Meh. Is he going to outsize or outquick Ibaka? Draymond Green (meaningfully)? Porzingis? Blake Griffin? Myles Turner? Paul Milsap? Derrick Favors? Manimal Faried? Amir Johnson?

As a 4, he doesn't give you any real mismatch advantages against most opponents, with any speed advantage over plodders like Z-Bo or Scola or Love undone by his lack of shooting.

If he can't play SF... then he's a pretty terrible prospect for a #1 overall pick.

His ball handling will definitely be an advantage against all of the 4's that you mentioned, and he is quicker than most of them too.

I'm not sure what his best position will be at this point, but he will be extremely versatile and capable of floating back and forth in different lineups.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CoreyGallagher]

Simmons has a size/strength advantage at the 3 while having better than adequate speed and quickness.

At the 4, he's... Meh. Is he going to outsize or outquick Ibaka? Draymond Green (meaningfully)? Porzingis? Blake Griffin? Myles Turner? Paul Milsap? Derrick Favors? Manimal Faried? Amir Johnson?

So he has better than adequate speed and quickness to play the 3, but that doesn't give him an advantage at the 4? Does he have the size, speed, quickness, and skills to outmaneuver most of the players that you listed? Believe there's a very high likelihood that he does.

As a 4, he doesn't give you any real mismatch advantages against most opponents, with any speed advantage over plodders like Z-Bo or Scola or Love undone by his lack of shooting.

You'd think Simmons would have shot a lot and missed a lot the way people talk about his shooting. Fact of the matter is his hesitancy to shoot is worrisome, but past that it's mostly presumptive overreaction.

If he can't play SF... then he's a pretty terrible prospect for a #1 overall pick.

Speaking of overreaction... Lol...

[sixerswillrule]

Simmons has a size/strength advantage at the 3 while having better than adequate speed and quickness.

At the 4, he's... Meh. Is he going to outsize or outquick Ibaka? Draymond Green (meaningfully)? Porzingis? Blake Griffin? Myles Turner? Paul Milsap? Derrick Favors? Manimal Faried? Amir Johnson?

As a 4, he doesn't give you any real mismatch advantages against most opponents, with any speed advantage over plodders like Z-Bo or Scola or Love undone by his lack of shooting.

If he can't play SF... then he's a pretty terrible prospect for a #1 overall pick.

It's the other way around. He'll have a quickness/athletcisim advantage against most PFs to break them down off the dribble. It's the same reason why Odom, Josh Smith, Thad Young, etc. are all better suited to play PF. Sure Simmons is expected to be better than those guys but the point still stands.

His lack of shooting is even more of a problem at SF. SFs will stay in front of Simmons and won't allow him to get to where he wants to go. What good will his size/strength advantage be then? Do you expect him to play in the post as a SF, with two other big men on the court with him?

[Unbreakable99]

Leaning towards Simmons.

Halfcourt issue:
Might help playing with more talented player(s) where there's less defensive pressure at him. Nevertheless, bullyball won't work and you see that LBJ struggles to do it in the finals.

Flaws:
everyone has flaws, but problem IMO is Simmons' flaws are two of the most valuable things in the league, shooting and defense (rim protection in particular). I leaning towards Simmons improving his shooting and defending opposing SFs in the NBA.

Wait. Are my eyes deceiving me? Did I just read that you are leaning Simmons? Didn't you say you would rather have Ingram and thought he was a better prospect as well? Anyway welcome aboard the Simmons train.