2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

In all my years on this site, this year Ernie Grunfeld took ALL of my enthusiasm and interest away.

No draft. No hope. Wow, maybe they purchase a second round pick!

This is the most boring of teams.

This team has its sights on 40 wins with no intellectual curiosity. Why even wonder about the Wizards?

[payitforward]

It doesn't hurt to pursue Crabbe, even if he's restricted.

But why Allen Crabbe in particular? True, he's young so that he still might improve. But he hasn't been much to date.

Among UFAs, unfortunately I don't see much at guard. Seth Curry has been mentioned. But I think folks may have the idea that he's very young -- actually, he'll turn 26 in two months. Still, if he comes cheap... why not?

On the subject of "cheap: -- Wesley Johnson, who has looked like a bust for most of his career, is as much a 2 as a 3, and he has actually gotten better the last 3 years. He is likely available very cheap. If (and only if) he is "cheap" then he's a worthwhile risk.

Note that drafting Allen Crabbe was "cheap" -- i.e. a low-cost risk -- because he was a R2 pick. If you take risks, make them affordable risks. Signing Allen Crabbe now would not be a low-cost risk. Signing Wesley Johnson would.

Jerryd Bayless -- again, if he comes at a low cost -- might be another worthwhile signing.

Then again, if we're using the EG strategy of buying cheap veteran bandaids short term, then I could see signing Sasha Vujacic, presumably a veteran minimum player. Is he good? No. But he's kind of ok in a few ways, and a vet minimum contract is very inexpensive.

In all, however, there isn't all that much out there!

[payitforward]

[quote="payitforward]
Not sure I follow.... Leaving aside the Gortat trade for a moment, if we signed Beal and maxed Whiteside, I believe that would put us at $87-88m in salaries for seven players. Sign Satoransky for $5-6m, and we are at the cap with 8 players.

Assume we use the room exception for a backup PG, that's 9 players. How are we getting that stretch 4 and backup 5? How are we getting the other 3-4 players we need? The proposed Gortat trade takes us down to 8 players and gives us -- how many and whom?

Just seeking understanding here -- I'm all for trading for youth, signing Satoransky, getting Whiteside, etc.[/quote]

I think your calculation assumes a Max Beal. I am using his 14.8M Cap hold. Whiteside, Wall, Gortat, Morris, Beal, Porter, Oubre, 5 min cap holds, and Websters stretch puts us at about 85.5M.

- Add Sato for 5M, remove one cap hold. Then you're at 90M
- That gives you 4M in capspace and Gortat (12M) to use to get us the backup 4 and 5.
- Room exception for backup PG.

Did that provide Clarity?

As for Gortat, the obvious fit has been Boston. But a sleeper trade could be Charlotte for Zeller. Zeller would be a great hustle big man to backup Whiteside and for cheap.

That then gives us 10.5M + the Room Exception to add a stretch 4, PG and depth.

Throw a 1+1 deal at Deng for 10-11M and then one of the many PGs with the exception.

Wall / Augustin
Beal / Sato
Otto / Oubre
Morris / Deng
Whiteside / Zeller[/quote]

Thanks for a little bit of help w/ the numbers! Of course, this all depends on a) signing Whiteside (which isn't going to happen) and b) (assuming a) trading Gortat's $12m salary for Zeller -- does the current CBA allow a trade so unequal in salaries?

It also assumes Beal's salary at a much lower level than it's likely to be.

Then there's the question of what all this actually would net us. E.g. Luol Deng is obviously not part of anything long-term, and Satoransky is a complete speculation at this point -- both whether he comes at all and how good he will be.

Can't see it, sorry.

[jivelikenice]

He's my latest mock offseason. I prioritize re-establishing a defensive identity. We give up a little offense but we're not going to out-offense the NBA's elite teams consistently IMO.

http://wizofawes.com/2016/06/20/washington-wizards-free-agency-2016-predictions-4/

[80sballboy]

It doesn't hurt to pursue Crabbe, even if he's restricted.

But why Allen Crabbe in particular? True, he's young so that he still might improve. But he hasn't been much to date.

Among UFAs, unfortunately I don't see much at guard. Seth Curry has been mentioned. But I think folks may have the idea that he's very young -- actually, he'll turn 26 in two months. Still, if he comes cheap... why not?

On the subject of "cheap: -- Wesley Johnson, who has looked like a bust for most of his career, is as much a 2 as a 3, and he has actually gotten better the last 3 years. He is likely available very cheap. If (and only if) he is "cheap" then he's a worthwhile risk.

Note that drafting Allen Crabbe was "cheap" -- i.e. a low-cost risk -- because he was a R2 pick. If you take risks, make them affordable risks. Signing Allen Crabbe now would not be a low-cost risk. Signing Wesley Johnson would.

Jerryd Bayless -- again, if he comes at a low cost -- might be another worthwhile signing.

Then again, if we're using the EG strategy of buying cheap veteran bandaids short term, then I could see signing Sasha Vujacic, presumably a veteran minimum player. Is he good? No. But he's kind of ok in a few ways, and a vet minimum contract is very inexpensive.

In all, however, there isn't all that much out there!

Are you looking for the next Michael Jordan? How about Jamal Crawford? Not saying he'll be Crawford but Crabbe is 24, 6-6, 210 and shot 39.3% from 3-point last season. I watched enough of him last season to be impressed. All I want is a 15 minute player who can score off the bench. That's what Gary Neal was supposed to give us last season and did to a certain extent in the rare time he was healthy but was obviously poor defensively, aging and slow. We need to fill nine spots so beggars can't be choosers.

[dangermouse]

In all my years on this site, this year Ernie Grunfeld took ALL of my enthusiasm and interest away.

No draft. No hope. Wow, maybe they purchase a second round pick!

This is the most boring of teams.

This team has its sights on 40 wins with no intellectual curiosity. Why even wonder about the Wizards?

I feel you CCJ. You can be cynical, but I agree with this. Without decent signings, this is gonna be an extremely medioce off season leading in to another extremely mediocre year. yay.

[montestewart]

In all my years on this site, this year Ernie Grunfeld took ALL of my enthusiasm and interest away.

No draft. No hope. Wow, maybe they purchase a second round pick!

This is the most boring of teams.

This team has its sights on 40 wins with no intellectual curiosity. Why even wonder about the Wizards?

I feel you CCJ. You can be cynical, but I agree with this. Without decent signings, this is gonna be an extremely medioce off season leading in to another extremely mediocre year. yay.

Time to bring Charles Jones out of retirement!

[80sballboy]

While I don't have much optimism in the front office, my hope is that Scotty will have some input in these signings. Mediocrity beats the alternative and I'm tired of the alternative. Where has rebuilding gotten us over the years? Kwame Brown? Jan Vesely? Jarvis Hayes? Beal, Wall. Otto. It's not a great Big 3. But when he lost Ariza, I was excited when we got the Truth. I actually am one of the few on this board looking forward to July 1, or is just unpopular to say that?

[verbal8]

In all my years on this site, this year Ernie Grunfeld took ALL of my enthusiasm and interest away.

No draft. No hope. Wow, maybe they purchase a second round pick!

This is the most boring of teams.

This team has its sights on 40 wins with no intellectual curiosity. Why even wonder about the Wizards?

I feel you CCJ. You can be cynical, but I agree with this. Without decent signings, this is gonna be an extremely medioce off season leading in to another extremely mediocre year. yay.

This seems like it might be the worst year ever to rely on free agency to improve a team. The amount of potential cap space in the NBA is nearly a billion dollars. The list of difference makers who might change teams via free agency seems very short. There might be some deals in FA after the initial feeding frenzy for a patient and savy GM - however the Wizards don't have that

[jivelikenice]

In all my years on this site, this year Ernie Grunfeld took ALL of my enthusiasm and interest away.

No draft. No hope. Wow, maybe they purchase a second round pick!

This is the most boring of teams.

This team has its sights on 40 wins with no intellectual curiosity. Why even wonder about the Wizards?

CCJ, I don't really get this. Washington's offseasons have consisted of draft day followed by having the MLE/BAE to spend and taking whoever is left over, really a non-participant in free agency. For once the Wizards will be participating and to me that's exciting. Can they accomplish something is a different story, it all depends on the vision Brooks (who IMO based on his contract has the real juice in this organization) and Ernie come up with.

[jivelikenice]

I've read a lot of whoa is us about the Markieff trade and I just don't get it. I know it reeked of an Ernie saving his job move but in 21 starts Markieff averaged 14/6 on 50% shooting from the floor and 35% from 3. His per 36 was 18/8. These aren't great numbers but certainly aren't bad either. I'd be curious what his PER was over that 21 game stretch.

[montestewart]

I've read a lot of whoa is us about the Markieff trade and I just don't get it. I know it reeked of an Ernie saving his job move but in 21 starts Markieff averaged 14/6 on 50% shooting from the floor and 35% from 3. His per 36 was 18/8. These aren't great numbers but certainly aren't bad either. I'd be curious what his PER was over that 21 game stretch.

It's not just Morris the player or the Morris trade, it's the recurring theme in the Grunfeld era, persistently scratching and clawing back to mediocrity. Wizards ownership/management rarely shows any signs of creativity or vision. After a while you fall into an "Eh, it's not so bad" mode, giving up on a gourmet meal and accepting that a 7-11 beef and bean burrito is better than starving to death.

[jivelikenice]

I've read a lot of whoa is us about the Markieff trade and I just don't get it. I know it reeked of an Ernie saving his job move but in 21 starts Markieff averaged 14/6 on 50% shooting from the floor and 35% from 3. His per 36 was 18/8. These aren't great numbers but certainly aren't bad either. I'd be curious what his PER was over that 21 game stretch.

It's not just Morris the player or the Morris trade, it's the recurring theme in the Grunfeld era, persistently scratching and clawing back to mediocrity. Wizards ownership/management rarely shows any signs of creativity or vision. After a while you fall into an "Eh, it's not so bad" mode, giving up on a gourmet meal and accepting that a 7-11 beef and bean burrito is better than starving to death.

I just don't see what the gourmet meal is in this scenario? The 13th selection? If they traded a top 5 pick or a pick in a deeper draft I'd agree but by all accounts its a weaker draft. Washington needs a star for sure, I just don't think this move had anything to do with that either positively or negatively. I agree that Ernie being associated with this trade is where it starts. It will be why every move will ripped to shreds this summer even though imo, Brooks now is in control of where this franchise goes. Ted isn't paying him $7MM and likely a lot more than Ernie to take a back seat to him.

[montestewart]

I've read a lot of whoa is us about the Markieff trade and I just don't get it. I know it reeked of an Ernie saving his job move but in 21 starts Markieff averaged 14/6 on 50% shooting from the floor and 35% from 3. His per 36 was 18/8. These aren't great numbers but certainly aren't bad either. I'd be curious what his PER was over that 21 game stretch.

It's not just Morris the player or the Morris trade, it's the recurring theme in the Grunfeld era, persistently scratching and clawing back to mediocrity. Wizards ownership/management rarely shows any signs of creativity or vision. After a while you fall into an "Eh, it's not so bad" mode, giving up on a gourmet meal and accepting that a 7-11 beef and bean burrito is better than starving to death.

I just don't see what the gourmet meal is in this scenario? The 13th selection? If they traded a top 5 pick or a pick in a deeper draft I'd agree but by all accounts its a weaker draft. Washington needs a star for sure, I just don't think this move had anything to do with that either positively or negatively. I agree that Ernie being associated with this trade is where it starts. It will be why every move will ripped to shreds this summer even though imo, Brooks now is in control of where this franchise goes. Ted isn't paying him $7MM and likely a lot more than Ernie to take a back seat to him.

The gourmet meal would be having an ownership/management team with creativity and vision, capable of building a true contender. It's within this bigger picture that component parts are so negatively magnified. Just as with Gortat trade, the Morris trade may not turn out bad. Both moves look more like how can we put a team on the court? and less like how can we build a contender?

[jivelikenice]

I agree with that part and i share the frustration that they've never gone for it in free agency or the trade route. That being said moves like the Gortat and Markieff deals can be supplements to bigger moves and not in lieu of them. That's how I view them. They didn't stop larger moves from occurring, the FOs passivity and acceptance of being a 2nd rate franchise has. Hopefully after paying SB $7MM per that's about to change. We'll see....

[pcbothwel]

]
Thanks for a little bit of help w/ the numbers! Of course, this all depends on a) signing Whiteside (which isn't going to happen) and b) (assuming a) trading Gortat's $12m salary for Zeller -- does the current CBA allow a trade so unequal in salaries?

It also assumes Beal's salary at a much lower level than it's likely to be.

Then there's the question of what all this actually would net us. E.g. Luol Deng is obviously not part of anything long-term, and Satoransky is a complete speculation at this point -- both whether he comes at all and how good he will be.

Can't see it, sorry.

You listed 5 different points and mentioned them as "Not Happening" or unsure/unlikely. But thats not close to true:

1) Whiteside: The first and hardest step, but find me a team thats a better/likely fit...really
2) Gortat for Zeller: Why not? Charlotte has cap space to absorb Gortats salary.
3) Beal: Beal's cap hold IS 14.8M, you act like this is not certain. We can Max him after we've made other moves.
4) Sato: He is coming over. Im calling a guarantee. KD2DC is "speculation", Sato to DC is going to happen
5) Deng: Same as Whiteside. How many playoff teams can offer him 2/22M+ and a starting spot.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Deng got 2/20 from the Heat on a much smaller cap 2 years ago. What makes you think he's going to sign for that again with a much bigger cap, many more teams with max cap space and potentially on his final major contract? Playoff teams? The Wizards could be a playoff team next season, but they weren't this last season and aren't one again until proven otherwise, at least not likely to anybody besides Wizards fans.

As for Whiteside, what teams are better fits? What about Dallas? They went damn hard after Jordan last offseason, why wouldn't they go after Whiteside? They actually were a playoff team and have a long recent history of being a playoff team and taking care of their players. What about Miami, who are surely dreaming of a Durant, Lebron, Whiteside haul but will have to settle for actually paying somebody the max when that doesn't work out? What about Memphis, or Boston, or Chicago, or Portland? How many teams do you need? Doesn't mean he won't choose to sign with the Wizards, but it makes things a lot more up in the air. Hell, if the Warriors let Barnes walk, dump Bogut and don't get Durant, why wouldn't they be right there offering Whiteside money? How good could he look with Curry, Klay and Draymond around him? Hell, instead of obliging the Wizards and moving Zeller for Gortat, why wouldn't the Bobcats just offer the max to Whiteside themselves? Seems to me as though they could be well-served essentially swapping Al Jefferson for Whiteside.

[AFM]

Any way we sign LeBron and Whiteside?

[DCZards]

The gourmet meal would be having an ownership/management team with creativity and vision, capable of building a true contender. It's within this bigger picture that component parts are so negatively magnified. Just as with Gortat trade, the Morris trade may not turn out bad. Both moves look more like how can we put a team on the court? and less like how can we build a contender?

Most trades are for component parts (or role players) who are necessary pieces as well. I'd put the trade for Morris in that category. I'm not expecting 'Kieff to be the difference maker. I see him as an average player--who is young and capable of getting better--under a good contract that will enable the Zards to spend their big money elsewhere. That's all part of building a contender.

Hopefully, the creativity and vision that you talk about will come with the addition of Brooks, who I'm certain will have a major say in the shaping of the Zards roster.

[jivelikenice]

The gourmet meal would be having an ownership/management team with creativity and vision, capable of building a true contender. It's within this bigger picture that component parts are so negatively magnified. Just as with Gortat trade, the Morris trade may not turn out bad. Both moves look more like how can we put a team on the court? and less like how can we build a contender?

Most trades are for component parts (or role players) who are necessary pieces as well. I'd put the trade for Morris in that category. I'm not expecting 'Kieff to be the difference maker. I see him as an average player--who is young and capable of getting better--under a good contract that will enable the Zards to spend their big money elsewhere. That's all part of building a contender.

Hopefully, the creativity and vision that you talk about will come with the addition of Brooks, who I'm certain will have a major say in the shaping of the Zards roster.