The data seems clear. I would need to gather more information to try to figure out why this is the case, but the numbers speak for themselves.
WARRIORS VS THUNDER
Game 1 --------- OKC wins ------------ 102.1 pace*
Game 2 --------- GSW wins ----------- 092.4 pace
Game 3 --------- OKC wins ------------ 104.3 pace*
Game 4 --------- OKC wins ------------ 104.5 pace*
Game 5 --------- GSW wins ----------- 101.7 pace ---- (aberration game)
Game 6 --------- GSW wins ----------- 097.4 pace
Game 7 --------- GSW wins ----------- 086.8 pace
Thunder 3-1 against Warriors in games played at 100+ pace
WARRIORS VS CAVS
Game 1 --------- GSW wins ----------- 089.5 pace
Game 2 --------- GSW wins ----------- 093.2 pace ---- (aberration game)
Game 3 --------- CLE wins ------------ 093.7 pace*
Game 4 --------- GSW wins ----------- 084.3 pace
Game 5 --------- CLE wins ------------ 098.9 pace*
Game 6 --------- CLE wins ------------ 093.9 pace*
Game 7 --------- CLE wins ------------ 090.7 pace*
Cavs 4-1 against Warriors in games played at 90+ pace
Cavs coach Ty Lue seemed to understand this situation before the series was played (and during the series as well). Despite the apparent foolishness of taking on the Warriors at what you would think would be Golden State's strength of playing fast, Lue made sure to be clear as to what Cleveland would try to do in the Finals:
http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2016/05/cleveland_cavaliers_plan_to_ru.html
However, teams seldom try to beat Golden State at its own game.
Puzzled by why I would ask in Tuesday's media availability if he thinks the Cavaliers can play run-and-shoot against the defending champs, Lue emphasized his point when he walked toward me afterward.
"We want to push the pace!" Lue yelled in jest for everyone to hear. "You know what I'm saying. Put that on record. Push the pace. You think I'm going to walk it down every time?"
As you might expect, this gameplan wasn't exactly being lauded by the media when Lue announced it:
http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/tyronn-lue-nba-finals-adjustments-pace-transition-golden-state-warriors-lebron-james/186ixrz9zha31qcil6ws6vo90
Trying to speed up against the Warriors sounds a bit like challenging Secretariat to a footrace.
Lue never wavered from his conviction, however, during the Finals:
http://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/2016/story/_/id/15936845/lebron-james-cleveland-cavaliers-told-coach-tyronn-lue-play-faster-pace-golden-state-warriors-nba-finals?ex_cid=espnapi_public
Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue is pushing LeBron James to pick up the pace in Game 2 of the NBA Finals in hopes it can jump-start an offense that struggled in a Game 1 loss to the Warriors.
"I just told LeBron I need him to play faster," Lue said Friday. "I need him to pick up the pace for us offensively, getting the ball out and just beginning to play faster."
...
"They make you stagnant and make you play one-on-one basketball because that's all you can get," Lue said. "So if we pick up the pace and play with a faster tempo offensively, I think we'll be fine."
And Lue was right in the end.
For some reason, whatever it is or was, the Warriors did not perform as well against top competition in the 2016 playoffs whenever the speed of the game was increased. Instead, Golden State did its best in games where the pace was lower.
Because I don't know why this happened, it's hard for me to say anything meaningful about how Kevin Durant might affect this dynamic.
One thing that you would expect, however, is for Warriors opponents to pick up on this. Lue himself may have taken the pace information from the OKC/GSW series and used it to his advantage in the 2016 Finals.
