Motor Keeps Going: The Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Thread III

[HornetJail]

I know it was a small sample size last year(7 total shots) , but I wonder if he will continue to shoot the 3 ball well.

I doubt he'll shoot that high of a percentage for the season, but he's generally really smart with his shot selection so I think 35% is definitely doable for him. It won't be on high volume, maybe around 2 attempts per game, but that's acceptable because teams will have to respect the shot enough to guard him.

I would be really happy with that. Gerald Henderson shot 35.3% 1.9 3PA a game last season (though he only played 20mpg). That's mediocre three-point shooting, but MKG with even a mediocre three-point shot is a downright deadly weapon because at 35%, you can be relied on to knock down open threes and that means a defender would HAVE to stick to MKG at the 3 point line.

I'm expecting something closer to 30% on 1.5 3PA a game for MKG, but improved mid-range and higher volume all-around and flashes of real dominance. Think 2013-14 Jimmy Butler but on better efficiency.

[fatlever]

Read on Twitter

[Hornet Mania]

I cannot wait to see MKG back in action. He's always been a big positive for us when he's on the floor, I missed watching him last year.

If the shot is as good as last year I'd be happy, I definitely think he'll make defenders honest at minimum and that's going to make him a monster.

I think there's a good chance the advanced stats nerds will be creaming their pants over MKG's impact by the end of the season.

[James Gatz]

MKG is the thing I'm most excited about for this season. Watching him play really adds joy to the game.

[Diop]

watching that clip makes me think that sometimes I underestimate MKG.

How many ballers could consistently defend like that?

[fatlever]

https://capstrategist.com/2016/10/17/category-9-wings-defensive-versatile/

Some deep analysis of wing defenders (with limited offensive skills) - MKG, RHJ, Allen, Aminu and Roberson

Final Verdict

7.Skill Translations:

MKG:
Elite Defense
Plus Rebounding
Above Average Finishing
Lack of Range/Scoring
Lack of Playmaking for Others
First Contract Translation: Starter
RHJ: (Largely Too Early)
Plus Defense/Rebounding
Lack of Range/Scoring
First Contract Translation: Rotation
Allen:
Elite Defense
Lack of Range/Scoring
First Contract Translation: Rotation
Aminu:
Plus Defense
Plus Rebounding
Lack of Range/Scoring
Lack of Creation for Others
First Contract Translation: Rotation
Roberson:
Plus Defense
Plus Rebounding
Lack of Range/Scoring
Lack of Creation for Others
First Contract Translation: Rotation/Starter

[fatlever]

Read on Twitter

I'll get excited when it starts happening in games. Still baffled by the shooting at a 45 degree angle.

[Flip Murray]

dammit. Ultimately I don't care what the shot looks like if it goes in. That's just not going to go in during games i'm afraid. All that work went down the drain

[UNCNYC]

dammit. Ultimately I don't care what the shot looks like if it goes in. That's just not going to go in during games i'm afraid. All that work went down the drain

I agree but at the same time it's good he can knock them down. By him doing this it keeps his defender from doubling down and it also allows him the chance to knock them down if he is open.

[LamarMatic7]

Lowe wrote some stuff on MKG for his most intriguing players to watch this season:
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17875192/zach-lowe-most-intriguing-nba-players-watch-jabari-parker-michael-kidd-gilchrist-myles-turner

One of the sad stories from last season: Right as the milquetoast Hornets reinvented themselves as a fun drive-and-kick buzzsaw, they lost their most watchable player -- their irrepressible, balls-to-the-wall chaos engine -- for almost the entire season. We finally get to see how MKG fits around Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum in small-ball lineups.

The Hornets have always been better with MKG on the floor, despite his wayward shooting, and they are counting on him to offset the loss of several key free agents -- plus a sneaky important early-season injury to Cody Zeller.

[fatlever]

"In my 17 years in the league, I've never seen anyone improve his skill level the way he has," Steve Clifford said. "Look: You can't be a great player if you can't shoot from range. We think MKG is going to do that. He's going to make corner 3s."

It's great to make fun quotes like that Cliff, but none of it matters if this massive skill level improvement doesn't show up on the court, in the box score and in the win column. MKG is a really good player, but nothing we saw in preseason gave me much reason to believe he's a vastly different player than the one we saw for the majority of the 2014-15 season. Only real difference I saw in the preseason from MKG on offense was 1) he was rebounding, pushing the ball up the floor, then pulling up for a FT line jumper. He did that about 5 times in preseason, making at least 3. (fact checkers). 2) Willingness to take more catch and shoot jumpers or even that one time the DHO jumper.

But those are expected, normal progressions for a bad offensive wing coming out of college after 4+ years in the NBA. So to say he's improved his skill level more than anyone he's seen in 17 years, I'd like a little more clarity on that statement, because it sounds like bologna.

I'm kind of annoyed by everyone treating MKG as if he is some kind of handicapped player who was born with one arm and some rare disease that people expected him to die when he was 8, but now thru the miracles of coaching and hard work, he can make a jump shot, something his doctors never thought possible. I'm tired of seeing people gush every time MKG hits back to back 3s in shooting practice, to the point of posting vines every time it happens. Are our expectations of MKGs shot really this low?

I love MKG. He's my favorite Hornet and I am rooting like crazy for him to stay healthy and make a leap on offense. But I am also not going to treat him with kid gloves. He's been in the NBA for 5 years. If he can't make 3s (and jumpers) consistently at this point, I'm going to call him out, repeatedly. If he still can't dribble to his left, I am going to call him out, repeatedly. Enough babying him.

/rant

[yosemiteben]

It's great to make fun quotes like that Cliff, but none of it matters if this massive skill level improvement doesn't show up on the court, in the box score and in the win column. MKG is a really good player, but nothing we saw in preseason gave me much reason to believe he's a vastly different player than the one we saw for the majority of the 2014-15 season

I understand your point, but I feel like you're swinging to far on the opposite end of the spectrum from where we were after MKG shot 54% from the field (50% on long 2's) and 43% from three in his 7 games last season.

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. On BBR, they project him shooting 36.7% from three on 0.7 3PTAs per 36. That seems reasonable to me.

[LofJ]

Agreed fatlever, it's put up or shut up time for MKG. As a fanbase we've been incredibly patient with him. And he's also no longer on a rookie contract, it's time to produce.

[fatlever]

I'll be shocked if MKG shots 36.7% from 3. I think he'll be in the 25-30% range. I also expect his jumper % to be closer to what it was 2 years ago, 36%. MKG making 36% of jumpers and making 3s at all, even at 25-30% is still a really good player, but its a long way away "biggest skill level improvement in 17 years".

I'm thinking MKG makes somewhere around 15-20 total 3s on the season. Not really enough to change how teams defend him.

[Flip Murray]

there's going to be no need to treat him like a handicapped player this year. He's about to go off. Beelieve that.

[yosemiteben]

I'm thinking MKG makes somewhere around 15-20 total 3s on the season. Not really enough to change how teams defend him.

That's basically the same as the projection I posted - 0.7 3PTAs per 36 is roughly 57 3PTAs for the season, and that assumes he plays 82 games and 36 MPG. 36.7% of 57 is roughly 21 threes made for the season.

[fatlever]

I was thinking more along the lines of 80 attempts for the season, which might be too high. In that case, lower his made 3s, down to 25% of whatever he takes. I'm definitely not buying into 36.7% unless the sample size is so small it doesn't matter - like last year shooting 43% on 8 attempts.

[fatlever]

He could shoot 50% for the season on 20 attempts, which would be a great talking point, but him only attempting .25 3's a game won't change how anyone defends him or the team, which is ultimately the goal. Point being, he has to take enough, and make enough to force teams to change the way he is defended. None of this matters if teams still sag way off him, clogging the paint for Kemba and MKG is unable or unwilling to make enough wide open 3s to punish that behavior. If I am defending MKG, I'd leave him alone out there until he made at least two 3s in a game, and even then I'm only cautiously closing out on him. It will take months, maybe years of MKG steadily knocking down 3s before teams respect him enough for it to matter in terms of how he is defended. But maybe, in the meantime, somebody leaves him wide open at the end of a game and he buries a 3 for a winner. That would be progress.

[Braggins]

I'd be happy with 30+ makes on 100 attempts. It wouldn't make a huge difference with how teams defend him in the short term, but as good as we are defensively and as often as we seems to have close games, getting a random extra three points from MKG every game or two could actually translate to some extra wins.

[EwingSweatsALot]

I'd be happy with him getting to 80-90 attempts on 30%. It might not be enough to matter scheme wise, but it matters in the sense of progress and that the work is beginning to pay off.

I wouldn't be surprised if for the first quarter he's shooting a decent percentage and then it takes a dip as defenders are a step closer to him. That though should increase his ability to get to the rim.