Bradley Beal - Part III

[Dat2U]

Barton is more of a 3 than a 2. He's not much of a perimeter threat so spacing is an issue. He's a poor defender as well. So I concur with pcbothwel that Barton is a solid bench guy but I wouldn't want him as a starter.

[payitforward]

I'd rather have Will Barton, taken 40th in Beal's draft.

Me, too.

Look, I like Will Barton just like a lot of you. And yes, CCJ did call him out in the draft, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. Barton has been a bad defensive player his entire career. I know defense can be subjective, but when your On/Off, DRtg, and DRPM are all bad, then the eye test is right. He is not quick enough for 2's or strong/long enough for 3's.
This was forgotten about when he had a really strong first 2.5 months of the season last year, but he fell back to earth post all star break.

You can argue his value based on his draft position or contract over Beal. But there is no way I take Barton over Beal with all else being equal. The fact that he is almost 3 years older plays a significant part.

He is a solid bench player and spot starter, nothing more.

Barton over Beal or Beal over Barton are equally irrelevant questions. Barton is 2.5 older than Beal (not "almost 3 years older" however). You can't compare them.

Barton was a terrific pick, and CCJ called him out -- as did I. But if we're talking about who's been a better player than Beal and was drafted after him in 2012, that's quite a long list. Crowder and Green -- both of whom have obviously worked out much better than Brad -- were picked 31 and 32 picks after him!

[payitforward]

I'm not particularly good with advance stats, but my spider senses tell me they tend to overrate lower usage players. Usually, low usage players are low usage players because they would become far less efficient if they took as many shots as higher usage players.

Ruz -- your last point is a good one, but it'd only be decisive if we looked exclusively at scoring when evaluating a player. Obviously, we can't do that. Still, it's true that only one stat really counts for the team -- the score at the end of the game. So let me try to relate the numbers of the 2 players to shooting and scoring.

Brad scores 7 more points per 40 minutes than Otto. @1.5 of those are at the FT line, and there's no question that he's better at getting there than Otto. The other 5.5 extra points Beal gets require him to take 6.1 more shots. I.e. they come at a .45 eFG%. That hurts rather than helps your chances to win the game.

Moreover, to get those extra shots, Brad has to have the ball enough that he turns it over about 1.5 more times than Otto. A TO is similar to, but worse than, a missed shot (where at least it's possible you keep the ball). In that same time, Otto gets .5 more steals. A steal gives your team an extra shot. So now -- trying to relate other numbers to shots/scoring -- one could say that Brad's 5.5 extra points from shooting come at a cost to the team of an extra 8.1 shots.

Then there's rebounding: in those same 40 minutes, Otto gets .7 more offensive boards than Brad. An offensive board extends a possession and provides another shot for your team. Overall, Otto gets almost 60% more rebounds than Brad.

On the numbers, Porter is a much better player than Beal -- not slightly better. And I'd argue that "the eye test" -- i.e. watching them -- says the same thing. Beal can look great from time to time, but he is way too inefficient, to put it simply, and it shows.

Then there's defense, where Otto is clearly better than Brad. Then there's the arc of improvement -- outstanding for Otto, standing still for Brad. Then there's age/experience -- Beal has played twice as many minutes as Porter has. Enough to make one question how much room for improvement is left.

If you include turnovers, why don't you include assists? Per 40 minutes, Beal averaged 3.8 versus Otto's 2.1. Considering the Wiz had people like Jared Dudley who didn't have any unassisted 3's for the entire season, the Wiz offense was highly dependent on assists, and Otto contributed very little there.

As far as rebounding, we're talking about a guard vs a forward. Forwards are supposed to get more rebounds because of their positions - where they play on the court. Otto actually played some 4 - a position of huge weakness to the Wiz last season. Did your eye test show that he was badly under-sized at the 4 - as far as weight and strength? Did you notice that Beal is much stronger for his position than Otto is for his? Neither of them were particularly good rebounders for their positions. There's no advantage to Porter there.

I'd say - do the stats over - without rebounding and with assists.

I didn't include assists, because I forgot to. I.e. I intended to include them, but as you know I'm 3/4 of the way round the bend and can't remember anything for more than 5 minutes (what was I going to say when I started this sentence...?... oh yeah): last year, Brad got 1.7 more assists per 40 minutes than Otto.

In baseball, if a guy can't throw or field, you can just use him as a pinch hitter or, in the AL, a designated hitter. In the NFL, we don't ask how good a tackler a wide receiver is. Those are entirely different kinds of sports, where players at radically different positions don't (often aren't allowed to!) do the same stuff. And, even in the NFL, when flow in the moment is important, we're looking for a fuller set of capabilities -- i.e. can a tight end both block and catch, unrelated skills.

Basketball is a "flow" game pretty much at all moments, and everybody does at least some of everything. Centers get assists, point guards get blocks, etc. E.g. one of the strengths of John Wall's game is his rebounding. If he rebounded a lot less, he wouldn't rate as high among point guards.

Now, Wall doesn't rebound nearly as well as Russell Westbrook, who's a much better player. If you removed rebounding from both players, RW would still be "better" than JW -- where "better" means that his play would have more positive impact on his team's wins than Wall's play has on his team's wins -- but not by nearly as much. And, if RW rebounded like JW & JW rebounded like RW, then JW's play would have more positive impact on his team's wins than RW's play had on his (though the delta between them would be smaller).

So... no, you cannot remove rebounding from your assessment of a player at any position, because rebounding actually happens; it affects wins and losses: remove it and you're not talking about actual impact on actual games any more.

That doesn't mean that you expect a 2 guard to rebound as well as a 3; of course not -- in that you are certainly right. Hence, yep, we should find a way to discount (not remove) his rebounding edge in order to have a better picture.

So lets just look at rebounding by position. Otto was a slightly above average rebounder last season among 3s who played 25 minutes a game or more. Brad was a slighty below average rebounder among 2s who played 25+ minutes.

Oh, and if we do the same for assists, we find Brad to be below average in assists. We also find Porter to be below average (among 3s) - farther below average than Beal in his group of 2s.

There really isn't much question. Most people would say that Porter is turning out extremely well, very much worth a #3 pick. Ernie/Ted think Beal is turning out extremely well too -- but they are wrong. He hasn't yet. He still may, sure. But that's an altogether different matter (since he also may not - and that seems more likely to this point!).

[nate33]

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[AFM]

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Man, I could watch him shoot all day. That's a sweet jumper.

[nate33]

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Man, I could watch him shoot all day. That's a sweet jumper.

The guy looks so awesome in the preseason. It just never seems to hold up.

I really hope that his mediocrity is due to the offensive system imposed by Wittman. It's conceivably possible that he'll be much better under Brooks. I'm not holding my breath though. I've gotten excited about Beal too many times in the past. Not any more. At this point, I'll think of him as merely an average player until he proves otherwise.

[Ruzious]

I thought Beal did improve last season - when he was healthy. His scoring efficiency improved even while his scoring increased. He averaged 21.7 points per 40 minutes (had never been up to 20 in previous seasons) while improving his TS% to 54 and eFG to 52 - both significant improvements. It's all about his form. You can tell when he's going to miss - he doesn't set his feet and he rushes his shot. When he doesn't have the right form, he will miss over 90% of the time. Like everyone else, he's probably afraid he'll get his shot blocked, so he rushes things. That's one of the things that made Paul Pierce special. He would take the time to get set always before shooting - forgetting fear of getting his shot blocked.

[tontoz]

I thought Beal did improve last season - when he was healthy. His scoring efficiency improved even while his scoring increased. He averaged 21.7 points per 40 minutes (had never been up to 20 in previous seasons) while improving his TS% to 54 and eFG to 52 - both significant improvements. It's all about his form. You can tell when he's going to miss - he doesn't set his feet and he rushes his shot. When he doesn't have the right form, he will miss over 90% of the time. Like everyone else, he's probably afraid he'll get his shot blocked, so he rushes things. That's one of the things that made Paul Pierce special. He would take the time to get set always before shooting - forgetting fear of getting his shot blocked.

Beals EFG on shots over 10 feet this past season was 1.8% better than his rookie year.

http://bkref.com/tiny/EvAtE

He did take it to the basket more in his contract year.

[nate33]

I thought Beal did improve last season - when he was healthy. His scoring efficiency improved even while his scoring increased. He averaged 21.7 points per 40 minutes (had never been up to 20 in previous seasons) while improving his TS% to 54 and eFG to 52 - both significant improvements. It's all about his form. You can tell when he's going to miss - he doesn't set his feet and he rushes his shot. When he doesn't have the right form, he will miss over 90% of the time. Like everyone else, he's probably afraid he'll get his shot blocked, so he rushes things. That's one of the things that made Paul Pierce special. He would take the time to get set always before shooting - forgetting fear of getting his shot blocked.

There were slight improvements in shooting and shot selection, which were mostly offset by a greater turnover rate (as evident in his lower overall ORtg). Also, his defense declined significantly. You can make a strong statistical argument that he was actually better in 2014-15 than he was in 2015-16.

Whatever the case, I think it's fair to say that his improvements last year were pretty incremental. He needs to be much better to live up to the expectations of a #3 overall pick and max salary player. I'm going to stay pessimistic, and then hope to be pleasantly surprised.

[SizzlinSimms]

His game winner against the Spurs last year was awesome, and I'll love him just for that!

[deneem4]

Beal is going to have a great year this year...he's had time to finally rest...the playoffs is no joke especially for a guy that young and was still growing at the time...
I think that's where his injuries stem from...I see him being a mip candidate this year

[payitforward]

I thought Beal did improve last season - when he was healthy. His scoring efficiency improved even while his scoring increased. He averaged 21.7 points per 40 minutes (had never been up to 20 in previous seasons) while improving his TS% to 54 and eFG to 52 - both significant improvements. It's all about his form. You can tell when he's going to miss - he doesn't set his feet and he rushes his shot. When he doesn't have the right form, he will miss over 90% of the time. Like everyone else, he's probably afraid he'll get his shot blocked, so he rushes things. That's one of the things that made Paul Pierce special. He would take the time to get set always before shooting - forgetting fear of getting his shot blocked.

There were slight improvements in shooting and shot selection, which were mostly offset by a greater turnover rate (as evident in his lower overall ORtg). Also, his defense declined significantly. You can make a strong statistical argument that he was actually better in 2014-15 than he was in 2015-16.

Whatever the case, I think it's fair to say that his improvements last year were pretty incremental. He needs to be much better to live up to the expectations of a #3 overall pick and max salary player. I'm going to stay pessimistic, and then hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Agreed. He was a little better at this, a little worse at that, and overall pretty much the same. The thing that is most upsetting is that this is a kid who's played 8100 minutes in the NBA and basically hasn't developed one bit. Overall, his 4th year wasn't better than his rookie year.

Ok, he started in the league a lot younger than most guys, but still.... This year is it; if he doesn't take a big jump this year, we've got a below average 2 guard taking up a quarter of our cap. Yikes!

[McFilthy]

If I am the Wizards, here's my plan for Beal: Wrap him in bubble wrap and park him at the 3-point line with the four other Wizards protecting him like linemen protect the quarterback. Beal's scoring average goes up. A story gains traction from unnamed sources that exposes Beal as Ray Allen's cousin. Video clips come out showing how similar the mechanics are of Beal's and R.Allen's shots. IF he can get to the trade deadline without major injury, trade him due to "chemistry issues" with Wall.

Once he passes his physical and is on another team, the Wizards are surprised he when is misses time due to injury.

[Ruzious]

If I am the Wizards, here's my plan for Beal: Wrap him in bubble wrap and park him at the 3-point line with the four other Wizards protecting him like linemen protect the quarterback. Beal's scoring average goes up. A story gains traction from unnamed sources that exposes Beal as Ray Allen's cousin. Video clips come out showing how similar the mechanics are of Beal's and R.Allen's shots. IF he can get to the trade deadline without major injury, trade him due to "chemistry issues" with Wall.

Once he passes his physical and is on another team, the Wizards are surprised he when is misses time due to injury.

I'd say clever, but the Ray Allen comps were already made - ever since his season in college. He was probably compared to Allen more than anyone else. And the chemistry issues thing with Wall's kinda gotten tiresome. The last line had good intentions, but keep your day job.

[nate33]

Beal's jump shot chart so far this year:

[popper]

Beal's jump shot chart so far this year:

God that's horrid. Hope he settles in soon. I'd like to see McClellan get some burn once he's comfortable with the offense. Also, the talk of trading Beal to Philly for instance can't even be considered until TL fires EG. Grunfeld would never admit he made a colossal mistake in signing Beal to a max but a new GM might jump on the opportunity to ship him out.

[J-Ves]

Beal's jump shot chart so far this year:

That can't be right. I distinctly remember him hitting a midrange jumper in the first quarter vs Toronto.


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[Ruzious]

Granted, it's just 3 games, but Beal's PER is 8.5 - which is absurdly low for someone who's expected to be the team's leading scorer - and I think the Wiz organization expects him to be their leading scorer. He's sure to do better, but I think he owes us and his teammates a reason for his poor play.

[Dat2U]

To me it looks like the pressure of living up to the deal has gotten to him. He's trying to force the issue offensively and show off his new & improved handle. The disturbing thing besides him not hitting the side of a barn is the lack of rebounds & assists. He needs to do more without the ball... It's like he doesn't exist on the court nowadays unless he's pounding the rock into the ground. It's unfortunate. He came into the league as a plus rebounder and a guy that could work well off screens. Instead he's developed into a poor man's Monta Ellis.

[Wizardspride]

Granted, it's just 3 games, but Beal's PER is 8.5 - which is absurdly low for someone who's expected to be the team's leading scorer - and I think the Wiz organization expects him to be their leading scorer. He's sure to do better, but I think he owes us and his teammates a reason for his poor play.

"Owes us and his teammates an explanation?"

For what?

I mean dude's off to a bad start. Nothing else to be said.

Just gotta work through it.