Butler trade rumor - KC Johnson update: pg 63

[Red Larrivee]

It just happened to be Thibs's first year, Rose's third year, Noah's fourth year and Taj's second year. But whatever. It doesn't matter.

So they sign Booz and Korver.

The Derrick Rose of this team is basically here, albeit much older. Where do Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Taj Gibson come from? Especially now with the new CBA?

The players they've drafted are going to have to improve, in addition to acquiring more veterans who minimize the burden of playing so many players who are trying to figure it out.

The biggest issue they face is that so many players are hitting free agency: Mirotic, Felicio, Gibson, Carter-Williams.

And the ones that aren't: McDermott, Grant, Portis, Valentine, are either bad or haven't shown much.

Internal player improvement isn't a slam dunk, but it's a requirement for this team to improve either way.

[RedBulls23]

Whether you want to call Butler a star or a superstar, it's irrelevant. IMO, this year he's shown that he's an elite player. When you get a player like that, you just don't trade him away without ever really giving it a shot at building a title contender. Bulls aren't stuck with any kind of mediocrity, because they don't have any long term bad contracts. If the FO really wanted to, they could clear house on everyone, but Jimmy, Wade and couple of others that fit, and start adding real pieces from there. His age is also not a concern, because he's only 27 and unlike most players, he doesn't have the miles on his body. Plus his game isn't reliant on speed and athleticism. I feel like Jimmy's game will age well. Also the fact that he really pushes himself in the off-season, I still wouldn't be surprised if his shot started to get more consistent from deep.

The other thing people over look is how charismatic Jimmy is, and the fact that he's willing to recruit (he's able to make friends so easily). That has proven to be a big factor in today's league. I'm pretty certain before this year, he and Wade didn't have much of a relationship outside of just being acquaintances. Now they are bffs, because of that. You have an all-time great talking about Jimmy like he's as good as anyone in this league.

I have always said that I could understand wanting to tank if you didn't have a piece like Jimmy, but the fact that you do, just doesn't sit right with me that people seem to be taking it for granted, and willingly just give that up.

[kingkirk]

And what is the likelihood that you will draft 3 John Wall level players?

Where would you rank John Wall? Top 20? Top 25?

Is it not possible to draft 2-3 guys at or around that level? Sure it is. Is it guaranteed? No.

[DroseReturnChi]

Whether you want to call Butler a star or a superstar, it's irrelevant. IMO, this year he's shown that he's an elite player. When you get a player like that, you just don't trade him away without ever really giving it a shot at building a title contender. Bulls aren't stuck with any kind of mediocrity, because they don't have any long term bad contracts. If the FO really wanted to, they could clear house on everyone, but Jimmy, Wade and couple of others that fit, and start adding real pieces from there. His age is also not a concern, because he's only 27 and unlike most players, he doesn't have the miles on his body. Plus his game isn't reliant on speed and athleticism. I feel like Jimmy's game will age well. Also the fact that he really pushes himself in the off-season, I still wouldn't be surprised if his shot started to get more consistent from deep.

The other thing people over look is how charismatic Jimmy is, and the fact that he's willing to recruit (he's able to make friends so easily). That has proven to be a big factor in today's league. I'm pretty certain before this year, he and Wade didn't have much of a relationship outside of just being acquaintances. Now they are bffs, because of that. You have an all-time great talking about Jimmy like he's as good as anyone in this league.

I have always said that I could understand wanting to tank if you didn't have a piece like Jimmy, but the fact that you do, just doesn't sit right with me that people seem to be taking it for granted, and willingly just give that up.

Like why do so many people want to call JB a superstar? Even if he was he's at best a 2nd tier superstar and that's his limit.
Right now, I would trade JB for any younger established star. JB for Embiid + 2017 Phil pick is a win for the Bulls for the long term future. I hope we dont make the same mistake when we didnt sell Joakim Noah for Cousins and Joakim is my 2nd favorite Bulls player.

[DroseReturnChi]

And what is the likelihood that you will draft 3 John Wall level players?

Where would you rank John Wall? Top 20? Top 25?

Is it not possible to draft 2-3 guys at or around that level? Sure it is. Is it guaranteed? No.

If we are this afraid of picks being bust go after younger established stars like Parker, Embiid.

[kingkirk]

It's not the same thing. In a rebuild you tried but couldn't for whatever reasons put an elite team around a star/superstar player in his prime (if you're fortunate enough to have that).Though said players age and diminishing returns as far as wins leads a team to go in another direction and rebuild. Tanking is the constant roster churning of players and picks looking for looking a star/superstar talent that said rebuilding team had but faded.

They will both feature a lot of losing and young players as you noted. How you got to that point however is more meaningful than just mere semantics.

So what you’re saying is that if you tried to win before, but couldn’t then you sold off your players, is noble, whereas constantly churning isn’t ok?

Is this the difference between tanking and rebuilding?

If so, didn’t the Sixers try this for years before Hinkie came in? They tried winning with Jrue, Iggy, Lou Williams, Thad Young etc. It got them no where. They then tore it down to ‘rebuild’. Is it not considered rebuilding because they were smart enough to move on from their players will they could still get maximum value?

Why is selling your best players at their peak a bad thing? Didn’t this board use to yearn for that when Paxson and Forman never did that?

[Leslie Forman]

Internal player improvement isn't a slam dunk, but it's a requirement for this team to improve either way.

"Internal player improvement"…so sorta like…through the draft?

I have always said that I could understand wanting to tank if you didn't have a piece like Jimmy, but the fact that you do, just doesn't sit right with me that people seem to be taking it for granted, and willingly just give that up.

I don't think anybody here wants to give him up for Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart or something…it'd obviously have to be some Herschel Walker package.

The issue seems to be that it's some black-and-white situation where return doesn't matter and it's just a "Trade? Y/N?" issue on the board here.

[RedBulls23]

Internal player improvement isn't a slam dunk, but it's a requirement for this team to improve either way.

"Internal player improvement"…so sorta like…through the draft?

I have always said that I could understand wanting to tank if you didn't have a piece like Jimmy, but the fact that you do, just doesn't sit right with me that people seem to be taking it for granted, and willingly just give that up.

I don't think anybody here wants to give him up for Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart or something…it'd obviously have to be some Herschel Walker package.

The issue seems to be that it's some black-and-white situation where return doesn't matter and it's just a "Trade? Y/N?" issue on the board here.

I haven't seen any actual Herschel Walker type offers.

Fans keeping talking about what they would want, but the only actual offers that have been reported were awful. Guys like Kris Dunn or the low ball non-sense the Celtics were offering does nothing for me. People on this board for clamoring for Kris Dunn during the off-season in a Butler trade.

[RedBulls23]

Like why do so many people want to call JB a superstar? Even if he was he's at best a 2nd tier superstar and that's his limit.
Right now, I would trade JB for any younger established star. JB for Embiid + 2017 Phil pick is a win for the Bulls for the long term future. I hope we dont make the same mistake when we didnt sell Joakim Noah for Cousins and Joakim is my 2nd favorite Bulls player.

Cousins was never available for Joakim Noah, and the Sixers have never offered Embiid and their pick next year for JB. Neither of those things are real, just you making stuff up along with all the other fans that are making stuff up.

[Red Larrivee]

And what is the likelihood that you will draft 3 John Wall level players?

Where would you rank John Wall? Top 20? Top 25?

Is it not possible to draft 2-3 guys at or around that level? Sure it is. Is it guaranteed? No.

That's not really answering the question though. How likely is it that a rebuild produces three Top 20 players? I'd say it's less than 5%.

[Red Larrivee]

"Internal player improvement"…so sorta like…through the draft?

I'm not sure what you're getting at. Every route requires internal improvement and I've never said otherwise. However, each path doesn't involve trading your best player to do it.

[Mech Engineer]

Like why do so many people want to call JB a superstar? Even if he was he's at best a 2nd tier superstar and that's his limit.
Right now, I would trade JB for any younger established star. JB for Embiid + 2017 Phil pick is a win for the Bulls for the long term future. I hope we dont make the same mistake when we didnt sell Joakim Noah for Cousins and Joakim is my 2nd favorite Bulls player.

Cousins was never available for Joakim Noah, and the Sixers have never offered Embiid and their pick next year for JB. Neither of those things are real, just you making stuff up along with all the other fans that are making stuff up.

It's weird that people claim Embiid is like the second coming of Olajuwon and they want to add possibly the 1st pick but for a player who is not good enough to build around.

If Embiid is so good, Philly is not giving him away but if Jimmy's value is equivalent to the future Hakeem +1st pick, he must also be pretty good to build around... Right.

[Leslie Forman]

I haven't seen any actual Herschel Walker type offers.

Fans keeping talking about what they would want, but the only actual offers that have been reported were awful. Guys like Kris Dunn or the low ball non-sense the Celtics were offering does nothing for me.

Not arguing there. But even if there was some Herschel Walker package offered, some folks would say no even to that.

That's not really answering the question though. How likely is it that a rebuild produces three Top 20 players? I'd say it's less than 5%.

What is the likelihood free agency brings three John Wall level players?

[Red Larrivee]

What is the likelihood free agency brings three John Wall level players?

The chances of signing a John Wall level player are higher than the chances of drafting a John Wall level player.

I really don't see how that's even a debate. Free agency is a tangible and controllable process, determined by player relationships, agent-front office connections and team upside. The draft is a crapshoot where ping pong balls determine the order and setup your likelihood of hitting on picks.

When you have Jimmy Butler playing at this level, it only helps the former.

[Leslie Forman]

What is the likelihood free agency brings three John Wall level players?

The chances of signing a John Wall level player are higher than the chances of drafting a John Wall level player.

I really don't see how that's even a debate. Free agency is a tangible and controllable process, determined by player relationships, agent-front office connections and team upside. The draft is a crapshoot where ping pong balls determine the order and setup your likelihood of hitting on picks.

When you have Jimmy Butler playing at this level, it only helps the former.

This franchise has drafted multiple John Wall-level or higher players.

This franchise has never even signed a Bradley Beal-level free agent.

[Red Larrivee]

This franchise has drafted multiple John Wall-level or higher players.

This franchise has never even signed a Bradley Beal-level free agent.

This franchise has already fielded a team that was significantly improved in part to their free agency choices. You can disect them individually, but the point remains.

I will take the tangible and controllable process over sacrificing a Top 10 player to play a perennial crapshoot.

[NADROJ]

What is the likelihood free agency brings three John Wall level players?

The chances of signing a John Wall level player are higher than the chances of drafting a John Wall level player.

I really don't see how that's even a debate. Free agency is a tangible and controllable process, determined by player relationships, agent-front office connections and team upside. The draft is a crapshoot where ping pong balls determine the order and setup your likelihood of hitting on picks.

When you have Jimmy Butler playing at this level, it only helps the former.

First of all, you left out the most important part of FA: $$$. And, the new CBA gives the monetary advantage to any FA's last team.

Also, as you mentioned, the rest of FA is almost entirely based on a multitude of human elements. There is nothing more unpredictable and uncertain than the human element. The more humans involved, the more unsure you might as well be.

And the draft with all the crazy ping pong balls you described isn't anywhere near as unpredictable. If you have the worst record, the worst you can pick is 4th. If you have the 12th worst record, you'll probably pick 12th. And, once it's determined, your spot is your spot and you have tons of time to strategize. And, once the player pool is determined, those are the players you can choose from. And, if you pick a player that's available at your pick, they are on your team. It's really very simple.

[Red Larrivee]

First of all, you left out the most important part of FA: $$$. And, the new CBA gives the monetary advantage to any FA's last team.

Also, as you mentioned, the rest of FA is almost entirely based on a multitude of human elements. There is nothing more unpredictable and uncertain than the human element. The more humans involved, the more unsure you might as well be.

And the draft with all the crazy ping pong balls you described isn't anywhere near as unpredictable. If you have the worst record, the worst you can pick is 4th. If you have the 12th worst record, you'll probably pick 12th. And, once it's determined, your spot is your spot and you have tons of time to strategize. And, once the player pool is determined, those are the players you can choose from. And, if you pick a player that's available at your pick, they are on your team. It's really very simple.

The fact that more teams have cap space further enhances the controllable elements:

-Player relationships
-Agent relationships
-Team upside

Sure, some players can still be enticed by the first team who opens a check, but the bidding for better players will go deeper.

None of this is determined by randomized ping pong balls. It's either your lucky day, or it isn't. And if it isn't, the odds of you walking away with the necessary talent is slim to none.

[kingkirk]

That's not really answering the question though. How likely is it that a rebuild produces three Top 20 players? I'd say it's less than 5%.

To be fair, I said 2-3, and not necessarily 3 within the top 20. So, again, I think you're reaching to the furthest extreme. I did mention the Raptors in a previous example. I don't think it's unfathomable to assume if you tank for several season that you can come away with a Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan level talent.

But as to putting an absolute number on it, neither you or I can answer that. It's hypothetical and speculative.

What are the chances the front office is able to put not one, but two, stars next to Butler to make this team a true contender and not some 44 win mediocre outfit without an identity?

Dwyane Wade certainly wasn't a top-20 or top-30 guy. They'll be lucky if they can add another top-50 player in 2017.

The easy answer is to say build around Jimmy Butler. I don't have a problem with this answer. My problem is this dismissive thinking of one avenue without mapping out the next 3-4 years, the remaining years of Butler's prime, and beginning to wonder how anyone is coming here to make this really good, let alone great.

[thenbaman]

Whether you want to call Butler a star or a superstar, it's irrelevant. IMO, this year he's shown that he's an elite player. When you get a player like that, you just don't trade him away without ever really giving it a shot at building a title contender. Bulls aren't stuck with any kind of mediocrity, because they don't have any long term bad contracts. If the FO really wanted to, they could clear house on everyone, but Jimmy, Wade and couple of others that fit, and start adding real pieces from there. His age is also not a concern, because he's only 27 and unlike most players, he doesn't have the miles on his body. Plus his game isn't reliant on speed and athleticism. I feel like Jimmy's game will age well. Also the fact that he really pushes himself in the off-season, I still wouldn't be surprised if his shot started to get more consistent from deep.

The other thing people over look is how charismatic Jimmy is, and the fact that he's willing to recruit (he's able to make friends so easily). That has proven to be a big factor in today's league. I'm pretty certain before this year, he and Wade didn't have much of a relationship outside of just being acquaintances. Now they are bffs, because of that. You have an all-time great talking about Jimmy like he's as good as anyone in this league.

I have always said that I could understand wanting to tank if you didn't have a piece like Jimmy, but the fact that you do, just doesn't sit right with me that people seem to be taking it for granted, and willingly just give that up.

Like why do so many people want to call JB a superstar? Even if he was he's at best a 2nd tier superstar and that's his limit.
Right now, I would trade JB for any younger established star. JB for Embiid + 2017 Phil pick is a win for the Bulls for the long term future. I hope we dont make the same mistake when we didnt sell Joakim Noah for Cousins and Joakim is my 2nd favorite Bulls player.

The sixers would laugh at butler for embiid never mind a pick,lol