Season Speculation, Trade Ideas & Discussion 3: About Last Knight

[SideSwipe]

What about Nicholson, Satoransky and WAS 1st in 2017, lotto protected, but it's gonna go so who cares, for Knight
You eat up Nicholson's deal but who cares while you rebuild and Sato is interesting, plus a 1st never hurts.

I think that's top-end value for Knight sadly.

It's an offer to think about actually. Pick will likely be 20-25, Nicholsons deal is long but its not that rich. Satoransky is a little ho-hum as a prospect, but it might be interesting to take him for a test drive on a rookie deal. Nicholsons deal length may torpedo this, but its not a ridiculously bad offer.

[Saberestar]

What about Nicholson, Satoransky and WAS 1st in 2017, lotto protected, but it's gonna go so who cares, for Knight
You eat up Nicholson's deal but who cares while you rebuild and Sato is interesting, plus a 1st never hurts.

I think that's top-end value for Knight sadly.

I am OK with this trade.

[carey]

I don't know, Nicholson is not any good. Satoransky is the same age as Knight. I guess it depends on whether you think you can rehab Knight's value.

[AZWildByNature]

What about Nicholson, Satoransky and WAS 1st in 2017, lotto protected, but it's gonna go so who cares, for Knight
You eat up Nicholson's deal but who cares while you rebuild and Sato is interesting, plus a 1st never hurts.

I think that's top-end value for Knight sadly.

Wiz cannot trade their 2017 First Round Pick, mid-season. They traded their 2016 First Round last year for Markieff Morris.

[sleepyvato]

I'm not asking for much this trade deadline, please just let us trade Knight and Tucker, while also resting Bledsoe more often so we can secure the best odds possible for the draft lottery. Come on McD, I admittedly don't have much faith in you lately but you can at least accomplish this much.

[WeekapaugGroove]

The question with bledsoe is are you comfortable paying him huge money in two years. If yes then no question you keep him. If no then you absolutely sell high.

The two things we as fans just don't know are how does the medical staff feel about the longterm outlook of his knees and what type of trade packages are available. With his recent play it would take a hell of a return for me to want to move him at the deadline.

Now to me it would all change this summer if they pick a pg top 2. If that happens i absolutely trade him. If you take a guy that high dont mess around with the mentor crap, you get that guy on the floor day 1 as your starter. Plus bledsoe will lose value as he gets closer to the end of his contract.

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[bwgood77]

The question with bledsoe is are you comfortable paying him huge money in two years. If yes then no question you keep him. If no then you absolutely sell high.

The two things we as fans just don't know are how does the medical staff feel about the longterm outlook of his knees and what type of trade packages are available. With his recent play it would take a hell of a return for me to want to move him at the deadline.

Now to me it would all change this summer if they pick a pg top 2. If that happens i absolutely trade him. If you take a guy that high dont mess around with the mentor crap, you get that guy on the floor day 1 as your starter. Plus bledsoe will lose value as he gets closer to the end of his contract.

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Yeah, not sure I want to pay him that $200 million deal that Cousins will get. Maybe it might not be that much, but even $150 million would be a bit steep for me.

[bhawk]

I'd be surprised if Chris Bosh ever played in the NBA again, no GM in their right mind would take a home run swing on a 33-year old at the risk of someone dying/being seriously hurt on the court due to blood clots.

This Bledsoe situation is a tough one, especially when he's playing so well and seems to have taken on a more methodical approach to the game as opposed to just barreling into the lane at every chance he gets like before. It's easy to say trade him and build around a young guard in the draft, but there are no guarantees in the draft. If a lot of people here had it their way this Summer, we'd have dumped him and drafted Kris Dunn, who has looked like hot garbage this year after being billed as "DWade-like" and "the most NBA-ready player in the draft."

Not that I think Fultz, Ball, or DSJ will end up disappointing, but unless we're getting a really nice trade package in return for this draft I'm not sure I'd be happy to give up Bled considering the development he's shown in his game this year and his newfound leadership skills.

The Bled situation is tough and I agree that there are NO guarantees in the draft. Dunn is a great example. He, Murray, Hield were the top 3 guards selected. The year before we had D. Russell and Mudiay. 2014 was Exum, Smart and Effrid Payton. Trey Burk was in 2013. Damian Lilliard was 2012. Looking forward to 2018 there is only 1 "top 10" PG prospect in Trevon Duval.

Humor me here, but now stack rank these guards. Arguably Fultz, Ball and Smith rank as the top 3 guards in the last 5 years. Also consider that the next 3 guards are Fox, Monk and Nkiltika. 2017 could be one of best PG classes EVER!

I hate that Bled is improving because it makes this decision very difficult. BUT I still say trade Bledsoe for a good return and gimme one of the top 3 guards in 2017. Pair him with Booker and we will be VERY well positioned for the future.

If the goal is a top 3 guard in the draft this year, then we have to move NOW and sell high on Bledsoe.

[Jarlaxle0204]

There is almost no chance we trade Bledsoe by the deadline. I could see trading him on draft night but I think that's fairly slim too.

[bhawk]

There is almost no chance we trade Bledsoe by the deadline. I could see trading him on draft night but I think that's fairly slim too.

That's what I'm afraid of... I agree that there are low odds that McD takes the risk, upsets the apple-cart and trades Bledsoe.

But the best path for the Suns long term and the unpopular path is to trade Bled for a good return, lose out and draft a top 3 guard.

[bwgood77]

There is almost no chance we trade Bledsoe by the deadline. I could see trading him on draft night but I think that's fairly slim too.

That's what I'm afraid of... I agree that there are low odds that McD takes the risk, upsets the apple-cart and trades Bledsoe.

But the best path for the Suns long term and maybe unpopular path to do is to trade Bled for a good return, lose out and draft a top 3 guard in the 2017 draft.

I have a feeling unless we get #1 and Fultz is still the clear cut #1, we will take a defensive SF...Jackson or Isaac.

[bhawk]

There is almost no chance we trade Bledsoe by the deadline. I could see trading him on draft night but I think that's fairly slim too.

That's what I'm afraid of... I agree that there are low odds that McD takes the risk, upsets the apple-cart and trades Bledsoe.

But the best path for the Suns long term and maybe unpopular path to do is to trade Bled for a good return, lose out and draft a top 3 guard in the 2017 draft.

I have a feeling unless we get #1 and Fultz is still the clear cut #1, we will take a defensive SF...Jackson or Isaac.

Fultz is a no-brainer like Kyrie Irving. But Ball is really, really good too... Smith is explosive. I don't trust Jackson to make a quick difference in the NBA... his development will be Wiggins-like. Issac is interesting.

[WeekapaugGroove]

There is almost no chance we trade Bledsoe by the deadline. I could see trading him on draft night but I think that's fairly slim too.

That's what I'm afraid of... I agree that there are low odds that McD takes the risk, upsets the apple-cart and trades Bledsoe.

But the best path for the Suns long term and maybe unpopular path to do is to trade Bled for a good return, lose out and draft a top 3 guard in the 2017 draft.

I have a feeling unless we get #1 and Fultz is still the clear cut #1, we will take a defensive SF...Jackson or Isaac.

What would be interesting is if say the suns land 1 or 2 but rate jackson and/or Isaac close to fultz or ball. Then say a team like philly or orlando is sitting in the 3 or 4 spot the suns could potentially move down a couple spots still land the wing they want and pick up a nice asset to do it.

Its scenarios like this that make me think waiting until summer to make a decision on bledsoe is the prudent choice.

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[Jarlaxle0204]

I go with Ball and Fultz first as well but then it's Jackson, Tatum, and Isaac for me. I don't think I want DSJ.

[bwgood77]

That's what I'm afraid of... I agree that there are low odds that McD takes the risk, upsets the apple-cart and trades Bledsoe.

But the best path for the Suns long term and maybe unpopular path to do is to trade Bled for a good return, lose out and draft a top 3 guard in the 2017 draft.

I have a feeling unless we get #1 and Fultz is still the clear cut #1, we will take a defensive SF...Jackson or Isaac.

Fultz is a no-brainer like Kyrie Irving. But Ball is really, really good too... Smith is explosive. I don't trust Jackson to make a quick difference in the NBA... his development will be Wiggins-like. Issac is interesting.

It's still early, but it looks that way. Not long ago though, Ford said some GMs were saying they'd take other guys at #1.

[bhawk]

That's what I'm afraid of... I agree that there are low odds that McD takes the risk, upsets the apple-cart and trades Bledsoe.

But the best path for the Suns long term and maybe unpopular path to do is to trade Bled for a good return, lose out and draft a top 3 guard in the 2017 draft.

I have a feeling unless we get #1 and Fultz is still the clear cut #1, we will take a defensive SF...Jackson or Isaac.

What would be interesting is if say the suns land 1 or 2 but rate jackson and/or Isaac close to fultz or ball. Then say a team like philly or orlando is sitting in the 3 or 4 spot the suns could potentially move down a couple spots still land the wing they want and pick up a nice asset to do it.

Its scenarios like this that make me think waiting until summer to make a decision on bledsoe is the prudent choice.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

I wish we had the luxury to wait until the summer. If we keep Bled, we will win too many games and we won't have a top 3 pick. Maybe we can shut him down for the rest of the year with tennis elbow or turf toe...

[bwgood77]

I have a feeling unless we get #1 and Fultz is still the clear cut #1, we will take a defensive SF...Jackson or Isaac.

What would be interesting is if say the suns land 1 or 2 but rate jackson and/or Isaac close to fultz or ball. Then say a team like philly or orlando is sitting in the 3 or 4 spot the suns could potentially move down a couple spots still land the wing they want and pick up a nice asset to do it.

Its scenarios like this that make me think waiting until summer to make a decision on bledsoe is the prudent choice.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

I wish we had the luxury to wait until the summer. If we keep Bled, we will win too many games and we won't have a top 3 pick. Maybe we can shut him down for the rest of the year with tennis elbow or turf toe...

Maybe not, but we rarely play like we did last night, and that was the Lakers. I think the only teams we finish ahead of for sure are the Nets, Lakers, Magic, and possibly the Sixers and TWolves.

I doubt we trade for a big name, and they've said if they can't they will likely be sellers. If we trade Tucker, that will make us worse. Same with Chandler. Our defense is horrid.

We are still picked to finish 2nd worst according to BPI, which takes into account various factors.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-odds

ESPN's NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength developed by the ESPN Analytics team. BPI is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance for the rest of the season. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. BPI accounts for game-by-game efficiency, strength of schedule, pace, days of rest, game location and preseason expectations.

A much more detailed analysis of all that goes into it.

Spoiler:

ESPN's NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a forward-looking measure of team quality. It uses advanced statistical analysis to measure each team's offensive and defensive levels relative to an average team.

For example, a team that has an offensive rating of 3 and a defensive rating of -1 has a total BPI of 2. The team's offensive rating means that they would be projected to score three more points per 100 possessions against an average defense than an average offense, and their defensive rating of -1 means that they would give up one more point per 100 possessions than an average defense would against an average offense. The total BPI score of 2 means that they would be favored against an average team by two points.

The central input to BPI is the score of every game. These scores by themselves do not tell the entire story, however, so they are adjusted for a variety of factors:

Strength of Opponent: There is a difference between beating the Golden State Warriors and beating the Philadelphia 76ers. BPI factors in the strength of opponent played so that these two games are not treated the same in evaluating a team's ability.

Pace: BPI utilizes the final score as its starting point but then adjusts that score for the number of possessions played. A team that scores 100 points on 80 possessions is a more efficient offensive team than one that scores 100 points on 100 possessions against the same opponent. BPI adjusts the final score of each game for the pace of play so that results can be compared fairly.

Game location: BPI adjusts for home-court advantage.

Distance traveled: The home-court advantage tends to grow as the distance the visiting team has to travel to get there grows, so BPI adjusts for the distance traveled as well as home court.

Rest: Teams often face each other with different amounts of rest between games. Beating a team that is on the second half of a back-to-back is not as impressive as beating a team that has had three or four days to recover since their last game, so BPI adjusts for this as well.

Preseason expectations: Teams often are what we thought they were, so to avoid getting caught up in the natural streakiness of the NBA season, BPI incorporates preseason expectations, based on the Vegas expected win totals and the prior year's performance.

Along with BPI, the same factors as those listed above (site, distance, rest, etc.) can be used to calculate a team's average scoring margin and chances of winning in any given game. Each team's chance to win each remaining game on the schedule is used play out the entire NBA season 10,000 times. From those simulations, the chances of each team making the playoffs, advancing through various rounds of the postseason, finishing in certain parts of the draft order and other such projections can all be calculated.

Using all of these inputs helps make BPI one of the most accurate prediction models available: BPI favorites have won over 72 percent of NBA games. For a review of BPI's performance in 2014-15, see: So, how did BPI do with its projections?

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/13984129/what-espn-nba-basketball-power-index

[GetYourPHX]

The RealGM obsession with draft picks continues. Look guys, we won one game against one of the worst teams in the league. We're still terrible. We're going to have a top 5 draft pick.

This years draft is loaded. We're going to get a good prospect. It's what we do with the prospect once he is on the team that matters.

Trading Bledsoe so we lose more games is dumb. We're bad. The worst thing you can do when you're bad is trade away your best player. To add to the situation, he's best friends with the "most likely to be moved" star in the league, Demarcus Cousins.

Moving Tucker/Knight/Chandler is fine. Those guys aren't going to make or break our squad. But moving Bledsoe? He's our best player. We have to stop giving up elite talent in the hopes that we'll find a miracle worker in the draft.

[bhawk]

What would be interesting is if say the suns land 1 or 2 but rate jackson and/or Isaac close to fultz or ball. Then say a team like philly or orlando is sitting in the 3 or 4 spot the suns could potentially move down a couple spots still land the wing they want and pick up a nice asset to do it.

Its scenarios like this that make me think waiting until summer to make a decision on bledsoe is the prudent choice.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

I wish we had the luxury to wait until the summer. If we keep Bled, we will win too many games and we won't have a top 3 pick. Maybe we can shut him down for the rest of the year with tennis elbow or turf toe...

Maybe not, but we rarely play like we did last night, and that was the Lakers. I think the only teams we finish ahead of for sure are the Nets, Lakers, Magic, and possibly the Sixers and TWolves.

I doubt we trade for a big name, and they've said if they can't they will likely be sellers. If we trade Tucker, that will make us worse. Same with Chandler. Our defense is horrid.

We are still picked to finish 2nd worst according to BPI, which takes into account various factors.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-odds

ESPN's NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength developed by the ESPN Analytics team. BPI is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance for the rest of the season. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. BPI accounts for game-by-game efficiency, strength of schedule, pace, days of rest, game location and preseason expectations.

A much more detailed analysis of all that goes into it.

Spoiler:

ESPN's NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a forward-looking measure of team quality. It uses advanced statistical analysis to measure each team's offensive and defensive levels relative to an average team.

For example, a team that has an offensive rating of 3 and a defensive rating of -1 has a total BPI of 2. The team's offensive rating means that they would be projected to score three more points per 100 possessions against an average defense than an average offense, and their defensive rating of -1 means that they would give up one more point per 100 possessions than an average defense would against an average offense. The total BPI score of 2 means that they would be favored against an average team by two points.

The central input to BPI is the score of every game. These scores by themselves do not tell the entire story, however, so they are adjusted for a variety of factors:

Strength of Opponent: There is a difference between beating the Golden State Warriors and beating the Philadelphia 76ers. BPI factors in the strength of opponent played so that these two games are not treated the same in evaluating a team's ability.

Pace: BPI utilizes the final score as its starting point but then adjusts that score for the number of possessions played. A team that scores 100 points on 80 possessions is a more efficient offensive team than one that scores 100 points on 100 possessions against the same opponent. BPI adjusts the final score of each game for the pace of play so that results can be compared fairly.

Game location: BPI adjusts for home-court advantage.

Distance traveled: The home-court advantage tends to grow as the distance the visiting team has to travel to get there grows, so BPI adjusts for the distance traveled as well as home court.

Rest: Teams often face each other with different amounts of rest between games. Beating a team that is on the second half of a back-to-back is not as impressive as beating a team that has had three or four days to recover since their last game, so BPI adjusts for this as well.

Preseason expectations: Teams often are what we thought they were, so to avoid getting caught up in the natural streakiness of the NBA season, BPI incorporates preseason expectations, based on the Vegas expected win totals and the prior year's performance.

Along with BPI, the same factors as those listed above (site, distance, rest, etc.) can be used to calculate a team's average scoring margin and chances of winning in any given game. Each team's chance to win each remaining game on the schedule is used play out the entire NBA season 10,000 times. From those simulations, the chances of each team making the playoffs, advancing through various rounds of the postseason, finishing in certain parts of the draft order and other such projections can all be calculated.

Using all of these inputs helps make BPI one of the most accurate prediction models available: BPI favorites have won over 72 percent of NBA games. For a review of BPI's performance in 2014-15, see: So, how did BPI do with its projections?

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/13984129/what-espn-nba-basketball-power-index

Encouraging. Thanks for sharing.

[SideSwipe]

There is almost no chance we trade Bledsoe by the deadline. I could see trading him on draft night but I think that's fairly slim too.

That's what I'm afraid of... I agree that there are low odds that McD takes the risk, upsets the apple-cart and trades Bledsoe.

But the best path for the Suns long term and maybe unpopular path to do is to trade Bled for a good return, lose out and draft a top 3 guard in the 2017 draft.

I have a feeling unless we get #1 and Fultz is still the clear cut #1, we will take a defensive SF...Jackson or Isaac.

I honestly think that may be the smart play anyway. Also, unless Fultz is a completely transcendent 2-way player, I'm not sure drafting a PG with the #1 makes sense. Fultz and Ball look great, Smith and Fox look good also. Can anyone say who will be the best out of each of those? Without that clarity, Jonathan Isaac rises to the top for me with Jackson next. I think the 2, 3 and 4 positions are going to be the most coveted asset classes and have the highest value. There are just too many good PG's right now to value them highly (supply/demand) Maybe this will be one draft where instead of BPA, we will be choosing Best Asset Available. I'd really like PHX to figure out how to pick up Bam Adebayo in the late lottery. I think he may develop the time of game as a traditional big man that could force defenses to go big which is not something we have much in the NBA right now.