The (Quintessential) Trade Thread, 2017 (Part 5.0)

[Zaschrona]

Amir, Jae, AB and MEM pick to DET
Zeller, Jerebko, Young, 2018 BOS and a 2nd to NYK
Melo, Drummond and O'Quinn to BOS

IT/Rozier
Brown/Smart
Melo/GG
Horford/Olynyk
Drummond/O'Quinn

[ajones9219]

Amir, Jae, AB and MEM pick to DET
Zeller, Jerebko, Young, 2018 BOS and a 2nd to NYK
Melo, Drummond and O'Quinn to BOS

IT/Rozier
Brown/Smart
Melo/GG
Horford/Olynyk
Drummond/O'Quinn

I could get down for that

[aim2please]

Drummond thing is interesting. I truly believe he needs a positive coach and not 'in your face, screaming all day' guy like Stan. Dude looks like someone who lacks confidence.

But trading him for picks doesn't make sense from Detroit point of view. There's no way they're gonna rebuild. Only makes sense if it's a three team deal, DET gets another borderline all star center, we get Drummond and 3rd team gets pick(s).

[Green89]

That makes no sense. You can't count all the picks taken and then say the ones that weren't big men don't count. That's not how numbers work

So, we're not going to take a big with the BKN 18? The value of the pick in regards to using it for a big, has to also include the rate of which bigs are NOT taken with top 5 picks. Especially if you say you'd rather PICK a potential all star big with the top 5 pick, over getting Drummond. It does factor into the equation, although not in the 10% example I gave. That would be more complicated to compute.

Ok, list all the bigs taken in the top 5 in the past 5 years, this will give us a more accurate percentage

2010 draft: 3 bigs
2011 draft: 4 bigs
2012 draft: 2 bigs
2013 draft: 3 bigs
2014 draft: 2 bigs
2015 draft: 3 bigs

In these 6 drafts, 17 bigs taken and 3 all stars. Still only a 17% chance at these top 5 bigs being all stars.

[MotownMadness]

Oh I think I would be inclined to deal the BRK 18 if nothing else comes of it for him. My only fear with him is that he cannot shoot free throws so all that really needs to happen is Hack-A-Shaq and send him to the line. Plus he can't shoot 3's.

I agree as the FTs are what hold him back from being a 20ppg player and it hurts at the end of games. I don't get the shooting 3s though. I think having 4 3 point shooters around a in the paint big is more then enough. I would rather have my center down low dominating then camping around the 3 point line.

The Celtics love 3 point shooters at all positions. They value it more than protecting the rim and rebounding so ultimately the team would 100% pass on Drummond.

I think he would open things up and get you even more 3s. Drummond is one of the best pick and roll bigs there are and if you don't fully commit to him rolling he's getting easy buckets. So it's as simple as commit and leave open 3s or let him have a field day at the rim. Pistons just don't have any good 3 point shooters so they just dare us to shoot them lol.

[ajones9219]

Drummond thing is interesting. I truly believe he needs a positive coach and not 'in your face, screaming all day' guy like Stan. Dude looks like someone who lacks confidence.

But trading him for picks doesn't make sense from Detroit point of view. There's no way they're gonna rebuild. Only makes sense if it's a three team deal, DET gets another borderline all star center, we get Drummond and 3rd team gets pick(s).

If the rumors are true about them shipping off Jackson and Drummond, why would they not rebuild? They have other young assets to build around.

[Homerclease]

So, we're not going to take a big with the BKN 18? The value of the pick in regards to using it for a big, has to also include the rate of which bigs are NOT taken with top 5 picks. Especially if you say you'd rather PICK a potential all star big with the top 5 pick, over getting Drummond. It does factor into the equation, although not in the 10% example I gave. That would be more complicated to compute.

Ok, list all the bigs taken in the top 5 in the past 5 years, this will give us a more accurate percentage

2010 draft: 3 bigs
2011 draft: 4 bigs
2012 draft: 2 bigs
2013 draft: 3 bigs
2014 draft: 2 bigs
2015 draft: 3 bigs

In these 6 drafts, 17 bigs taken and 3 all stars. Still only a 17% chance at these top 5 bigs being all stars.

List their names. And just because guys like Towns, Embiid and Porzingis haven't made all star teams yet doesn't mean they aren't stars

[prov1ml]

So, does DA try to nail down a big first (Drummond/Griffin) and then let Bird and Gar/Pax get nervous about the other trading for the "other" Nets pick or what would be the best plan of attack? If he can secure a big first, that might get both Chi & Ind to make the decision that they need to move now if they want that Nets pick....

[chrisab123]

Amir, Jae, AB and MEM pick to DET
Zeller, Jerebko, Young, 2018 BOS and a 2nd to NYK
Melo, Drummond and O'Quinn to BOS

IT/Rozier
Brown/Smart
Melo/GG
Horford/Olynyk
Drummond/O'Quinn

I have zero clue if this would work financially speaking but this would be really good for Boston.

[Bar Fight]

So, we're not going to take a big with the BKN 18? The value of the pick in regards to using it for a big, has to also include the rate of which bigs are NOT taken with top 5 picks. Especially if you say you'd rather PICK a potential all star big with the top 5 pick, over getting Drummond. It does factor into the equation, although not in the 10% example I gave. That would be more complicated to compute.

Ok, list all the bigs taken in the top 5 in the past 5 years, this will give us a more accurate percentage

2010 draft: 3 bigs
2011 draft: 4 bigs
2012 draft: 2 bigs
2013 draft: 3 bigs
2014 draft: 2 bigs
2015 draft: 3 bigs

In these 6 drafts, 17 bigs taken and 3 all stars. Still only a 17% chance at these top 5 bigs being all stars.

Results in previous drafts don't dictate the quality of the player in upcoming ones.

[TheOGJabroni]

Johnson, Zeller & BK 18 for Drummond. We have a team that is semi-ready to compete now and Drummond helps our greatest weakness. BK 18 would most likely be used on a big that we would hope has the potential that Drummond still has. This is a great move now, solid move for later as well.

[aim2please]

Drummond thing is interesting. I truly believe he needs a positive coach and not 'in your face, screaming all day' guy like Stan. Dude looks like someone who lacks confidence.

But trading him for picks doesn't make sense from Detroit point of view. There's no way they're gonna rebuild. Only makes sense if it's a three team deal, DET gets another borderline all star center, we get Drummond and 3rd team gets pick(s).

If the rumors are true about them shipping off Jackson and Drummond, why would they not rebuild? They have other young assets to build around.

The rumors were them taking back veterans on long-term deals like Rubio and DJ Augustin. You don't trade for them if you're thinking about rebuilding. I'm obviously just speculating, but I think Stan is sick of those guys and thinks he can retool by getting guys who fit his system better.

Jackson has the rep of being a ball stopper who kills their offensive flow and there was an article recently about Drummond demanding the ball in the post, while Stan wants him to be a p'n'r guy.

If Stan wasn't a GM, then rebuild would be an option. No coach volunteers to coach a 25 win team.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Drummond thing is interesting. I truly believe he needs a positive coach and not 'in your face, screaming all day' guy like Stan. Dude looks like someone who lacks confidence.

But trading him for picks doesn't make sense from Detroit point of view. There's no way they're gonna rebuild. Only makes sense if it's a three team deal, DET gets another borderline all star center, we get Drummond and 3rd team gets pick(s).

Eh. They could get, or we could get them, Vucevic. Or a three-team deal where we get Melo and Drummond, the Pistons get, maybe, Noah and the Knicks' 1st (the tax for dumping 40 million in annual salary.)

But Detroit doesn't have much to tear down - they're fighting for the 8th spot, they have to decide whether to pay KCP, but otherwise their three best players are Jackson, Drummond and Tobias Harris.

They get Hezonja/Vuc for Reggie Jackson, dump Drummond's salary, they're looking at something roughly like-

KCP
Mario
Stanley Johnson
Tobias Harris
Vucevic

Plus a high lotto pick in a deep draft. They wouldn't be that much better or worse, but they'd have more flexibility, and they wouldn't have so much invested in a center who isn't fitting their system or timeline.

[Green89]

Ok, list all the bigs taken in the top 5 in the past 5 years, this will give us a more accurate percentage

2010 draft: 3 bigs
2011 draft: 4 bigs
2012 draft: 2 bigs
2013 draft: 3 bigs
2014 draft: 2 bigs
2015 draft: 3 bigs

In these 6 drafts, 17 bigs taken and 3 all stars. Still only a 17% chance at these top 5 bigs being all stars.

List their names. And just because guys like Towns, Embiid and Porzingis haven't made all star teams yet doesn't mean they aren't stars

Damn, I mistakenly thought Towns was already an all star. Forgot he was only in rising stars. That makes the 10% and 17% percentages drop even more.

List the names? HAHA. Don't believe me, just look them up yourself.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Don't want to just give away the BKN '18 - maybe swap rights with Detroit's 2018 1st, so they can leap past us to get Doncic or whoever.

[Green89]

Ok, list all the bigs taken in the top 5 in the past 5 years, this will give us a more accurate percentage

2010 draft: 3 bigs
2011 draft: 4 bigs
2012 draft: 2 bigs
2013 draft: 3 bigs
2014 draft: 2 bigs
2015 draft: 3 bigs

In these 6 drafts, 17 bigs taken and 3 all stars. Still only a 17% chance at these top 5 bigs being all stars.

Results in previous drafts don't dictate the quality of the player in upcoming ones.

True, but percentages of landing stars shouldn't fluctuate a ton from year to year.

[Homerclease]

2010 draft: 3 bigs
2011 draft: 4 bigs
2012 draft: 2 bigs
2013 draft: 3 bigs
2014 draft: 2 bigs
2015 draft: 3 bigs

In these 6 drafts, 17 bigs taken and 3 all stars. Still only a 17% chance at these top 5 bigs being all stars.

List their names. And just because guys like Towns, Embiid and Porzingis haven't made all star teams yet doesn't mean they aren't stars

Damn, I mistakenly thought Towns was already an all star. Forgot he was only in rising stars. That makes the 10% and 17% percentages drop even more.

List the names? HAHA. Don't believe me, just look them up yourself.

The fact is the odds of the player becoming at the minimum a solid rotation player on the level of Bradley and Crowder are actually over 60%

[ThirtyFour]

List their names. And just because guys like Towns, Embiid and Porzingis haven't made all star teams yet doesn't mean they aren't stars

Damn, I mistakenly thought Towns was already an all star. Forgot he was only in rising stars. That makes the 10% and 17% percentages drop even more.

List the names? HAHA. Don't believe me, just look them up yourself.

The fact is the odds of the player becoming at the minimum a solid rotation player on the level of Bradley and Crowder are actually over 60%

Right but do you want to pass up a butler george or even a drummond for a 60% chance of a solid rotation player?

[Green89]

List their names. And just because guys like Towns, Embiid and Porzingis haven't made all star teams yet doesn't mean they aren't stars

Damn, I mistakenly thought Towns was already an all star. Forgot he was only in rising stars. That makes the 10% and 17% percentages drop even more.

List the names? HAHA. Don't believe me, just look them up yourself.

The fact is the odds of the player becoming at the minimum a solid rotation player on the level of Bradley and Crowder are actually over 60%

Fine, but Drummond being a borderline all star shouldn't deter from the fact we know he's a proven player with some upside, and that's still less of a risk to me than using the BKN 18 on an unestablished big.

[Bar Fight]

2010 draft: 3 bigs
2011 draft: 4 bigs
2012 draft: 2 bigs
2013 draft: 3 bigs
2014 draft: 2 bigs
2015 draft: 3 bigs

In these 6 drafts, 17 bigs taken and 3 all stars. Still only a 17% chance at these top 5 bigs being all stars.

List their names. And just because guys like Towns, Embiid and Porzingis haven't made all star teams yet doesn't mean they aren't stars

Damn, I mistakenly thought Towns was already an all star. Forgot he was only in rising stars. That makes the 10% and 17% percentages drop even more.

List the names? HAHA. Don't believe me, just look them up yourself.

Towns, Porzingis, and Embiid are all future stars and elite players in the league. So your number was disingenuous anyway. And I'm still struggling to see how any of this has any relevance to the value of the prospects in 2018. We don't know if they'll be great or not yet, it's too early. But the lack of immediate elite, all star in their first or second season bigs in the last few drafts won't be a factor in it.