The (Quintessential) Trade Thread, 2017 (Part 5.0)

[Banks2Pierce]

If Stan wasn't a GM, then rebuild would be an option. No coach volunteers to coach a 25 win team.

Yeah, from Lowe's article a week ago:

The Pistons will likely hold off on any major moves until the draft. They aren't in severe distress; they're a .500-ish team in the playoff hunt, with a young roster that can still grow. They regard the playoffs as a must; they won't make any move that amounts to a huge in-season downgrade.

I do think a week off can possible lead to more reflection and especially for a gm/coach dual role, but I think Detroit will want to salvage something with their current team considering their circumstances.

[smith2373]

Ideally there's nothing wrong with just keeping the picks. But the thing is, I just simply lack faith in Danny's ability to nail the picks. Just because it's projected to be a strong draft does not mean we're guaranteed to get a great player. History has shown that regardless of how weak or strong the draft is, there's at least one massive bust taken in the top 5.

And I know some of you believe that Brown, Smart & Rozier are all studs with high ceilings that any team would be lucky to have, but everyone doesn't think that highly of them and that's not unreasonable at all.

[Homerclease]

Damn, I mistakenly thought Towns was already an all star. Forgot he was only in rising stars. That makes the 10% and 17% percentages drop even more.

List the names? HAHA. Don't believe me, just look them up yourself.

The fact is the odds of the player becoming at the minimum a solid rotation player on the level of Bradley and Crowder are actually over 60%

Right but do you want to pass up a butler george or even a drummond for a 60% chance of a solid rotation player?

Well in this exercise, guys like Towns, Porzingis and Embiid are considered busts because they haven't made all star teams yet. There are 3 levels here. You could get a franchise cornerstone, a solid role player, or a bust. The odds are about equal each way

[Andrew McCeltic]

Jackson to ORL is a possibility. Other rumor/suggestion is that the Pistons like Rubio, could send Reggie to the Knicks, who give Rose's expiring to Thibs in Minnesota, and Ricky to Detroit.

[aim2please]

Spoiler:

Drummond thing is interesting. I truly believe he needs a positive coach and not 'in your face, screaming all day' guy like Stan. Dude looks like someone who lacks confidence.

But trading him for picks doesn't make sense from Detroit point of view. There's no way they're gonna rebuild. Only makes sense if it's a three team deal, DET gets another borderline all star center, we get Drummond and 3rd team gets pick(s).

Eh. They could get, or we could get them, Vucevic. Or a three-team deal where we get Melo and Drummond, the Pistons get, maybe, Noah and the Knicks' 1st (the tax for dumping 40 million in annual salary.)

But Detroit doesn't have much to tear down - they're fighting for the 8th spot, they have to decide whether to pay KCP, but otherwise their three best players are Jackson, Drummond and Tobias Harris.

They get Hezonja/Vuc for Reggie Jackson, dump Drummond's salary, they're looking at something roughly like-

KCP
Mario
Stanley Johnson
Tobias Harris
Vucevic

Plus a high lotto pick in a deep draft. They wouldn't be that much better or worse, but they'd have more flexibility, and they wouldn't have so much invested in a center who isn't fitting their system or timeline.

Ask yourself, would you want Celtics to do those deals? My guess is no

We'll see what happens, but I believe Detroit is looking to shake things up and not to rebuild. Odds of them drafting a guy better than Drummond are very slim.

[Zaschrona]

Amir, Jae, AB and MEM pick to DET
Zeller, Jerebko, Young, 2018 BOS and a 2nd to NYK
Melo, Drummond and O'Quinn to BOS

IT/Rozier
Brown/Smart
Melo/GG
Horford/Olynyk
Drummond/O'Quinn

I have zero clue if this would work financially speaking but this would be really good for Boston.

Melo and Drummond have both trade kickers. Drummond 8% and Melo 15%. So this would mean we would take in 56.03M in salaries, while we would trade out 41.38M. And because we would stay by around 6M below tax level threshold this season, we could acquire 150% of incoming salary in this trade. So it works financially. We could even still offer full room exception to FAs after this trade and stay below luxury tax for this season.

[Green89]

The fact is the odds of the player becoming at the minimum a solid rotation player on the level of Bradley and Crowder are actually over 60%

Right but do you want to pass up a butler george or even a drummond for a 60% chance of a solid rotation player?

Well in this exercise, guys like Towns, Porzingis and Embiid are considered busts because they haven't made all star teams yet. There are 3 levels here. You could get a franchise cornerstone, a solid role player, or a bust. The odds are about equal each way

Even going back year after year and calculating how many top 5 bigs made all star, I don't think you'll find a stretch of years where it gets to over 50% odds.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Spoiler:

Drummond thing is interesting. I truly believe he needs a positive coach and not 'in your face, screaming all day' guy like Stan. Dude looks like someone who lacks confidence.

But trading him for picks doesn't make sense from Detroit point of view. There's no way they're gonna rebuild. Only makes sense if it's a three team deal, DET gets another borderline all star center, we get Drummond and 3rd team gets pick(s).

Eh. They could get, or we could get them, Vucevic. Or a three-team deal where we get Melo and Drummond, the Pistons get, maybe, Noah and the Knicks' 1st (the tax for dumping 40 million in annual salary.)

But Detroit doesn't have much to tear down - they're fighting for the 8th spot, they have to decide whether to pay KCP, but otherwise their three best players are Jackson, Drummond and Tobias Harris.

They get Hezonja/Vuc for Reggie Jackson, dump Drummond's salary, they're looking at something roughly like-

KCP
Mario
Stanley Johnson
Tobias Harris
Vucevic

Plus a high lotto pick in a deep draft. They wouldn't be that much better or worse, but they'd have more flexibility, and they wouldn't have so much invested in a center who isn't fitting their system or timeline.

Ask yourself, would you want Celtics to do those deals? My guess is no

We'll see what happens, but I believe Detroit is looking to shake things up and not to rebuild. Odds of them drafting a guy better than Drummond is very slim.

I don't know what I'd do if we had the Pistons' roster and assets. But the Cousins-for-Hield trade reminds you teams do dumb stuff, have all kinds of motives separate just from talent considerations, especially if they're an unstable organization, or don't have the leadership personalities to iron out conflicts.

[Homerclease]

Right but do you want to pass up a butler george or even a drummond for a 60% chance of a solid rotation player?

Well in this exercise, guys like Towns, Porzingis and Embiid are considered busts because they haven't made all star teams yet. There are 3 levels here. You could get a franchise cornerstone, a solid role player, or a bust. The odds are about equal each way

Even going back year after year and calculating how many top 5 bigs made all star, I don't think you'll find a stretch of years where it gets to over 50% odds.

Who cares about all star teams? It's meaningless when guys like Towns, Porzingis, Parker and Embiid have yet to make one. If you got an equivalent player to those 4 in 2018 you'd be ecstatic.

[Fantaxp7]

This is the most excited I've been in years

Let's hope that somehow, some way the Pistons think the trade market was set by the Boogie deal

But seriously if there's truth to Drummond I hope Ainge (and I trust he will) makes the best trade per the value of our assets and team structure is still relatively in place.

Could be a huge trade deadline.

[LarryBirdsFingr]

[PierceFan4ever]

If we can somehow get Drummond without the Brooklyn picks

[Andrew McCeltic]

Other point about Drummond is we'd probably give them Zizic. And if SVG has coach's disease (impatience, Joe Johnson for Tony Delk/Rodney Rogers trades), Zizic is a legitimately good center prospect who already knows how to do a lot of the little stuff we'd be spending another 2-3 years helping Dre to get down.

[chrisab123]

I will say that if Ainge does have interest in Drummond and I hope he does and gets him I'll be throwing a party on this board.

[Green89]

Well in this exercise, guys like Towns, Porzingis and Embiid are considered busts because they haven't made all star teams yet. There are 3 levels here. You could get a franchise cornerstone, a solid role player, or a bust. The odds are about equal each way

Even going back year after year and calculating how many top 5 bigs made all star, I don't think you'll find a stretch of years where it gets to over 50% odds.

Who cares about all star teams? It's meaningless when guys like Towns, Porzingis, Parker and Embiid have yet to make one. If you got an equivalent player to those 4 in 2018 you'd be ecstatic.

No doubt we'd be ecstatic, but the realization of when we'd finally be using that person to their potential means Horford is retired by then, Thomas is past his prime, and we may be in a worse situation than now. Pelicans have had the best big in the last decade, yet they still can't sniff a shot at a title. Give us the established player now, not a chance at one who will help us 4 years from now.

[MotownMadness]

IDK I just think Drummond makes you guys dangerous. The IT/Drummond pick and roll surrounded by shooters would just be a lethal offense and hard to stop. Commit to either IT or Drummond rolling or commit to the 3 point line and let those two feast at the rim like Reggie and Drummond did last season before Reggies knee went to hell. Plus he would instantly make you guys a top rebounding team, especially on the offensive glass.

Plus you guys have something we don't to counter hack a Dre and that's playing Horford at the 5.

[chrisab123]

Other point about Drummond is we'd probably give them Zizic. And if SVG has coach's disease (impatience, Joe Johnson for Tony Delk/Rodney Rogers trades), Zizic is a legitimately good center prospect who already knows how to do a lot of the little stuff we'd be spending another 2-3 years helping Dre to get down.

I would view Zizic as tradable in the right deal but I would hold on dealing him in any deal for Drummond. I'm a bigger fan of him than I am Jaylen.

[Green89]

Read on Twitter

The question I have about this is if we do it, is it because we've done a bigger deal and lost some bigs, or because we couldn't get a bigger deal done and settle with just Bogut as our one front court upgrade?

[Green89]

I will say that if Ainge does have interest in Drummond and I hope he does and gets him I'll be throwing a party on this board.

Just make sure there's strippers involved.

[Homerclease]

Even going back year after year and calculating how many top 5 bigs made all star, I don't think you'll find a stretch of years where it gets to over 50% odds.

Who cares about all star teams? It's meaningless when guys like Towns, Porzingis, Parker and Embiid have yet to make one. If you got an equivalent player to those 4 in 2018 you'd be ecstatic.

No doubt we'd be ecstatic, but the realization of when we'd finally be using that person to their potential means Horford is retired by then, Thomas is past his prime, and we may be in a worse situation than now. Pelicans have had the best big in the last decade, yet they still can't sniff a shot at a title. Give us the established player now, not a chance at one who will help us 4 years from now.

Who cares about Horford? And you don't think a player like Porzingis, Towns or Embiid could help this team the second they step on the floor? Will they be in their absolute prime? No, but they can certainly contribute to a winning cause