2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 3 (season finale)

[Impuniti]

So Curry has possibly the best season in NBA history from a winning perspective and no one even notices. Best Oncourt in history. Easily the best On/Off in the league. A much better On/Off than any of his teammates. Based on wins, Curry absolutely crushes the other MVP candidates this year.

Meanwhile, even if you completely ignore wins Westbrook might not have better box score stats than Harden and Lebron once you adjust for efficiency and usage.

If "helps a team win the most" is your criteria then Curry should be practically a lock for MVP. Instead, a lot of people don't even have Curry as an MVP candidate at all. The absolute disregard for winning is what is going to make this MVP race historic, not Westbrook getting the MVP.

4 years running of being top 2 in +/-, +1000 for two years in a row, that impact

Spoiler:

stil completely disagree that he should be MVP this year, although the guy I think deserves it isn't winning either

[BallerTalk]

Here's an interesting thought:

When was the last time an MVP candidate was EXPECTED to lose in the 1st round?

[SideshowBob]

So Curry has possibly the best season in NBA history from a winning perspective and no one even notices. Best Oncourt in history. Easily the best On/Off in the league. A much better On/Off than any of his teammates. Based on wins, Curry absolutely crushes the other MVP candidates this year.

Meanwhile, even if you completely ignore wins Westbrook might not have better box score stats than Harden and Lebron once you adjust for efficiency and usage.

If "helps a team win the most" is your criteria then Curry should be practically a lock for MVP. Instead, a lot of people don't even have Curry as an MVP candidate at all. The absolute disregard for winning is what is going to make this MVP race historic, not Westbrook getting the MVP.

3rd best. Himself and Draymond were higher last year.

[rockmanslim]

Watch on YouTube

[Dupp]

Dreamt harden won and I don't believe my brain would lie to me so congrats harden

[HotRocks34]

We have all the data in now so we can take a look at what Westbrook accomplished this year in comparison to other seasons in NBA history.

31.6/10.7/10.4
97.8 pace
30.6 PER
#3 (Points Scored + Points Assisted) [PSPA] season of all time (behind 2017 Harden and 1973 Tiny Archibald)
Led league in PPG
Triple Double Record for a single season (42)
#1 BPM season in NBA history
#1 VORP season in NBA history
First man in NBA history to lead the league in scoring while also averaging a triple double
First man in NBA history to average a triple double and do so at a sub-100 pace
First man in NBA history to average a triple double and do so with 30+ PER
10th man in NBA history to have a 30+ PER season
2nd man in NBA history to average 30/10/10
Possibly the #1 PSPA season of all time adjusted for pace


Just to help put things into perspective, here's how Westbrook's BPM and VORP stack up with the best seasons of LeBron, Jordan, and Curry (Wilt does not have BPM/VORP stats).

VORP
12.41 = Westbrook 2017
11.98 = Jordan 1989
11.81 = Jordan 1988 (MVP)
11.57 = LeBron 2009 (MVP)
10.89 = LeBron 2010 (MVP)
10.12 = Jordan 1990
10.09 = LeBron 2008
09.81 = Curry 2016 (MVP)
09.80 = Jordan 1991 (MVP)

BPM
15.50 = Westbrook 2017
12.99 = LeBron 2009 (MVP)
12.56 = Jordan 1989
12.53 = LeBron 2010 (MVP)
12.45 = Curry 2016 (MVP)
12.17 = Jordan 1988 (MVP)
11.56 = LeBron 2013 (MVP)
11.23 = LeBron 2008


Given all of this information, taken together, I think this is likely one of the Top-2 all-time seasons (particularly on offense) in the history of the sport. It appears to be better than any Jordan, LeBron or Curry season. And that is saying a lot.

I think that the only season in NBA history that might match or exceed this season by Westbrook is Wilt's 1961-62 campaign. That year looks like this:

50.4/25.7/2.4
131.1 pace
31.7 PER (2nd highest PER season in NBA history; does not include blocks/steals/turnovers)
#4 PSPA season
Unknown BPM
Unknown VORP

Adjusting Wilt's 1961-62 stats to Westbrook's pace gives you these averages:
37.6/19.2/1.8


An argument could likely also be made for Wilt's 1962-63 season being the best ever NBA season, as his PER was even higher that year (31.82, an NBA record) than it was in 1961-62. But the raw stats of the 1961-62 season are slightly more impressive.

This gives you an idea of how incredible Westbrook's season was. It appears to be a Top-2 (or Top-3, given Wilt's 1962-63 campaign) season in NBA history, and he averaged a triple double and he shattered the BPM single-season record, and so forth.

I don't know if Westbrook will win the MVP, but I feel very good that this season by him will remain one of the greatest seasons in NBA history for a very, very long time.

[nolang1]

hmmm.. Let's say Westbrook wins the MVP this year - we can all largely agree his triple double is holding a lot of weight as its historic. Hypothetically, if he averages a TD again next year and his team is again somewhere between 5 and 7. Does he continue to earn MVPs? What would be the voters thought process going forward if he did it again next two years?

No, that's not as good of a story for the voters. He was close enough to averaging a TD in 14-15 when Durant was hurt, which in a way is more impressive because they couldn't do anything to replace Durant midseason. In March and April of that year Westbrook averaged 31.5 points, 9.5 assists, and 8.3 rebounds over 22 games; OKC went 12-10 during that span (44 wins over an entire season) and Ibaka only played in 5 of those games due to an injury of his own.

Westbrook wasn't seriously considered for the MVP then, and the main on-court differences between then and now would be that his team lets him get those extra free throw/uncontested rebounds and that the supporting cast has improved, which makes a pass more likely to result in an assist. So what it really comes down to is that Durant left as a free agent rather than got hurt.

[nbafan38]

Thunder had the third highest ratings in the league this year. With the loss of Durant if Westbrook had left the Thunder would have been completely irrelevant. That alone is an argument in favor of Westbrook for MVP.

[tundraknight]

He's the 2nd player ever to average a TRIPLE DOUBLE.

That's the only argument you need.

Something all Legendary players of the past were unable to do not named Oscar.

Kareem, Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, Lebron James, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Tim Duncan, Jerry West, Kobe Bryant, Jason Kidd, Stephen Curry, Hakeem, Bill Russel, Kevin Durant etc. etc.

The list goes on and on, and none of those Legendary players were able to average a TRIPLE DOUBLE.

[ono]

For:
Triple Double.
Great amount of clutch moments and takeover performances.
Great season in general.

Against:
Triple doubles seem manufactured (bizarre rebounding strategies, no increase in contested rebounds from 5 yes ago, passing up on shots when chasing assists, ridiculous usage etc)
Too much usage - doesn't seem to impact the ability of teammates.
6th seed.

[CS707]

He's the 2nd player ever to average a TRIPLE DOUBLE.

And likely the first player for which doing so was an organizational goal.

[BallerTalk]

For:
Triple Double.
Great amount of clutch moments and takeover performances.
Great season in general.

Against:
Triple doubles seem manufactured (bizarre rebounding strategies, no increase in contested rebounds from 5 yes ago, passing up on shots when chasing assists, ridiculous usage etc)
Too much usage - doesn't seem to impact the ability of teammates.
6th seed.

I'd argue you missed the two biggest points.

The biggest FOR: Narrative
It's a media award so narrative factors hugely.
Even before the triple double headlines, the "Durant left now Westbrook is going to go off" storyline was one of the biggest narratives in the NBA this year. It had Westbrook at the top of the MVP conversation before the season even began.
That set the stage for huge individual expectations and Westbrook absolutely delivered.

The biggest AGAINST: Harden
There is a guy in the league putting up virtually the same numbers more efficiently (and ostensibly more honestly) and having much greater team success while doing so, turning an eighth seed into a potential contender.

[Amare_1_Knicks]

So, random question: since the league is doing the award show in June for the MVP/DPOY/ROY and etc, as opposed to announcing them as the playoffs are still going on, will that potentially change or impact the voters decision(s) on who should be MVP? Let's say Westbrook knocks out the Rockets in 6, and somehow takes GS to 7(not gonna happen of course), but would that sway voters?

Or will it still be perceived strictly as a RS award still?

[ocelot17]

So, random question: since the league is doing the award show in June for the MVP/DPOY/ROY and etc, as opposed to announcing them as the playoffs are still going on, will that potentially change or impact the voters decision(s) on who should be MVP? Let's say Westbrook knocks out the Rockets in 6, and somehow takes GS to 7(not gonna happen of course), but would that sway voters?

Or will it still be perceived strictly as a RS award still?

The votes were turned in two days ago.

[Bergmaniac]

hmmm.. Let's say Westbrook wins the MVP this year - we can all largely agree his triple double is holding a lot of weight as its historic. Hypothetically, if he averages a TD again next year and his team is again somewhere between 5 and 7. Does he continue to earn MVPs? What would be the voters thought process going forward if he did it again next two years?

No, that's not as good of a story for the voters. He was close enough to averaging a TD in 14-15 when Durant was hurt, which in a way is more impressive because they couldn't do anything to replace Durant midseason. In March and April of that year Westbrook averaged 31.5 points, 9.5 assists, and 8.3 rebounds over 22 games; OKC went 12-10 during that span (44 wins over an entire season) and Ibaka only played in 5 of those games due to an injury of his own.

Westbrook wasn't seriously considered for the MVP then, and the main on-court differences between then and now would be that his team lets him get those extra free throw/uncontested rebounds and that the supporting cast has improved, which makes a pass more likely to result in an assist. So what it really comes down to is that Durant left as a free agent rather than got hurt.

Westbrook missed 15 games that season, nobody gets serious consideration for MVP these days when missing that many games.

Besides, averaging close to a triple double for 22 games is way less impressive for most voters than averaging one for the whole season. Those two months were very impressive, but he also had a pretty atrocious January before that while Durant was mostly healthy - 37% FG% and 22% from 3, TS% of 46% and his plus/minus was -4.

[Amare_1_Knicks]

So, random question: since the league is doing the award show in June for the MVP/DPOY/ROY and etc, as opposed to announcing them as the playoffs are still going on, will that potentially change or impact the voters decision(s) on who should be MVP? Let's say Westbrook knocks out the Rockets in 6, and somehow takes GS to 7(not gonna happen of course), but would that sway voters?

Or will it still be perceived strictly as a RS award still?

The votes were turned in two days ago.

Where did you hear/see that ?

[ono]

For:
Triple Double.
Great amount of clutch moments and takeover performances.
Great season in general.

Against:
Triple doubles seem manufactured (bizarre rebounding strategies, no increase in contested rebounds from 5 yes ago, passing up on shots when chasing assists, ridiculous usage etc)
Too much usage - doesn't seem to impact the ability of teammates.
6th seed.

I'd argue you missed the two biggest points.

The biggest FOR: Narrative
It's a media award so narrative factors hugely.
Even before the triple double headlines, the "Durant left now Westbrook is going to go off" storyline was one of the biggest narratives in the NBA this year. It had Westbrook at the top of the MVP conversation before the season even began.
That set the stage for huge individual expectations and Westbrook absolutely delivered.

The biggest AGAINST: Harden
There is a guy in the league putting up virtually the same numbers more efficiently (and ostensibly more honestly) and having much greater team success while doing so, turning an eighth seed into a potential contender.

Agreed on Harden. I think OKC and Houston were projected as being very similar at the start of the season. Harden has done a great job. I know people like to credit the system at Houston but Harden moving to PG has been inspired. It's to his credit that he has made the switch and been so good. Harden is my MVP for what it's worth.

I'd not given much thought to narrative although I agree that it will play a huge factor. I'm not sure it should, but it will. It's the narrative that's making people ignore the holes in Westbrook's statline.

[JordansBulls]

So, random question: since the league is doing the award show in June for the MVP/DPOY/ROY and etc, as opposed to announcing them as the playoffs are still going on, will that potentially change or impact the voters decision(s) on who should be MVP? Let's say Westbrook knocks out the Rockets in 6, and somehow takes GS to 7(not gonna happen of course), but would that sway voters?

Or will it still be perceived strictly as a RS award still?

The votes were turned in two days ago.

Where you find this at?

[HotRocks34]

http://newsok.com/article/5544141

The NBA's regular season ends April 12, and the deadline for participants to submit their votes for individual awards (MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man Award, Coach of the Year) is April 14.

The votes are submitted before the playoffs start.

The voting is over; all the votes are in.

[rcontador]

Just to help put things into perspective, here's how Westbrook's BPM and VORP stack up with the best seasons of LeBron, Jordan, and Curry (Wilt does not have BPM/VORP stats).

VORP
12.41 = Westbrook 2017
11.98 = Jordan 1989
11.81 = Jordan 1988 (MVP)
11.57 = LeBron 2009 (MVP)
10.89 = LeBron 2010 (MVP)
10.12 = Jordan 1990
10.09 = LeBron 2008
09.81 = Curry 2016 (MVP)
09.80 = Jordan 1991 (MVP)

BPM
15.50 = Westbrook 2017
12.99 = LeBron 2009 (MVP)
12.56 = Jordan 1989
12.53 = LeBron 2010 (MVP)
12.45 = Curry 2016 (MVP)
12.17 = Jordan 1988 (MVP)
11.56 = LeBron 2013 (MVP)
11.23 = LeBron 2008

VORP and BPM are AWFUL stats. They are linear estimates of RAPM, based on the box score. RAPM is already a questionable stat. On top of that RAPM is not well-estimated by a linear box score model. VORP and BPM are poor estimates of a questionable stat. They are, effectively, box score mystery meat. (They are also strictly worse than RAPM.) Do not use them.

Given all of this information, taken together, I think this is likely one of the Top-2 all-time seasons (particularly on offense) in the history of the sport.

You are stupid.